A2 WEEKEND THREAD | 134.1M DOM OW | Thurs 17m / Fri 36m / Sat 45m / Sun 36m

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

2 minutes ago, Alligator Zatt said:

It won’t be ‘just’ the upcoming build up. It will be Endgame / No Way Home on steroids. We aren’t talking about the MCU build up itself anymore. It will get EVERYONE there from the last almost 30 years. This is coming for not just Avatar and Endgame, but The Force Awakens DOM record as well.

Yea I understand what they’re gonna try to do but that doesn’t mean the attempt will be pulled off. I’m hopeful but cautious. The market is changing rapidly.

[ZattMurdock]

19 minutes ago, BadOlCatSylvester said:

Unless Marvel manages to fix the fractures that Phase 4 caused with general audiences, not a chance in hell.

There is no fracture. Online chatter never factored in actual box office results. The kind of noise about Marvel films isn’t new, and yet I don’t see Avatar coming for No Way Home. They are forging new mythology and other than Eternals, they were all home runs. We are talking about the single franchise that made north to $2B worldwide since the pandemic, and that without a single dollar from China. We live in a fractured world with war and an ongoing pandemic, but I think things are looking up in the upcoming years.

Edited December 16, 2022 by Alligator Zatt

[DAJK]

Does anyone have a concrete figure on the budget? Someone I know keeps saying the budget is “at least 2 billion” and therefore the movie needs to make 4B WW to break even and it’s starting to annoy me (they’re one of those Marvel fanboys where even Eternals was a huge hit).

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

Just now, DAJK said:

Does anyone have a concrete figure on the budget? Someone I know keeps saying the budget is “at least 2 billion” and therefore the movie needs to make 4B WW to break even and it’s starting to annoy me (they’re one of those Marvel fanboys where even Eternals was a huge hit).

Nothing concrete but the major trades estimate ~$400M.

[Cooper Legion]

2 hours ago, Torontofan said:

Will this beat age of Ultron record for highest grossing dissapointment ?

 

(this is a joke post as getting nearly 2 billion dollars is a huge win)

Legit, yes it will. AoU dethroned after 7 long years, amen jimmy.

Edited December 16, 2022 by Korra Legion

[Cmasterclay]

Rest in peace movie theaters. In loving memory. You will be missed

 

http://media.wbur.org/wp/2020/12/GettyImages-1150049038-1000x630.jpg

[Torontofan]

9 minutes ago, Alligator Zatt said:

There is no fracture. Online chatter never factored in actual box office results. The kind of noise about Marvel films isn’t new, and yet I don’t see Avatar coming for No Way Home. They are forging new mythology and other than Eternals, they were all home runs. We are talking about the single franchise that made north to $2B worldwide since the pandemic, and that without a single dollar from China. We live in a fractured world with war and an ongoing pandemic, but I think things are looking up in the upcoming years.

 

I think Marvel phase 4 is not doing the best overseas I  find compared to phase 3.

 

but likely is the missing china factor I guess.

[Cooper Legion]

1 minute ago, Cmasterclay said:

Rest in peace movie theaters. In loving memory. You will be missed

 

http://media.wbur.org/wp/2020/12/GettyImages-1150049038-1000x630.jpg

Slam dunk O4, can’t be topped

[AJG]

Top post on r/pics

 

 

[ThomasNicole]

Cameron himself cemented the "disappointment" feeling when he open his mouth and said it needed to be the 3rd or 4th biggest movie of all time. 

 

Yes we know there is a context and it doesn't actually need 2B, but still, he put the stakes too high and it will hunt him back even if it ended with 1.8-1.9B even without much China help. 

[Cooper Legion]

1 hour ago, XXR Tulkun Rider said:

Question of the Day

 

The last movie to sell at least 80 million tickets domestically was Avengers: Endgame. Will we ever see another film sell that many tickets, domestically?

Saga 3 finale, if it’s good.
 

Ep X if they wait a long time and produce good shows/movies meanwhile.  
 

Otherwise no

[Maggie]

2 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

Cameron himself cemented the "disappointment" feeling when he open his mouth

 

 

Arrogance is Jim's brand. I kinda love it

[stripe]

44 minutes ago, Glogloglo said:

I love your revisionist history but as I child I remember reading so many articles about how Titanic was a huge flop. For months prior to release it was DOA. The weak opening was considered flop territory and beyond recovery, what you mentioned is not even close to what happened in reality. 

 

I had 18 years old at the time. I remember some articles doubting about Titanic chances to be profitable because of its huge budget and its delays. There were also doubts about Cameron being able to direct a period drama. But those articles were weeks or months BEFORE the opening. Days prior to release, WOM about strong quality began to spread and Golden Globes gave the movie 8 noms.
Then, the opening surpassed the expectations and the articles underlined the success of the movie. Read this from Gitesh: 

http://www.boxofficeguru.com/122297.htm
BOguru was one of the few sites at the time with good boxoffice analysis.

[vafrow]

1 minute ago, DAJK said:

Does anyone have a concrete figure on the budget? Someone I know keeps saying the budget is “at least 2 billion” and therefore the movie needs to make 4B WW to break even and it’s starting to annoy me (they’re one of those Marvel fanboys where even Eternals was a huge hit).

 

You'll never get an official budget for this film. It's been in some form of development since 2010. Cameron has been creating new technologies, and a lot of costs attributed to this film could easily be things that are more general R&D. Then, you have a giant studio merger happen in there, where costs can easily be thrown around.

 

The exact P&L on this film seems fairly irrelevant, even if it would be interesting. What's more important is what the belief is on what subsequent films may cost (accounting for the likely overruns from Cameron) and what does the performance mean for revenue potential for future films.

 

I think the feeling is that the next films will be cheaper. The foundation has been laid technologically, and Cameron won't spend a decade coming up with new tools and techniques.

[Cooper Legion]

1 hour ago, XXR Tulkun Rider said:

If this data was 100% representative of what ends up happening, it would translate to 30-32 million adult ticket sales. 

You know this is probably quite close to reality!

[Cooper Legion]

30 minutes ago, Alligator Zatt said:

It won’t be ‘just’ the upcoming build up. It will be Endgame / No Way Home on steroids. We aren’t talking about the MCU build up itself anymore. It will get EVERYONE there from the last almost 30 years. This is coming for not just Avatar and Endgame, but The Force Awakens DOM record as well.

The force awakens record ain’t shit in 2026. You can take it with comparatively paltry admissions.

[wildphantom]

Oh yeah, you younger people have no idea how up against it Titanic was. It was a general laughing stock that was going to implode Fox and be a disaster at the box office.  I remember at the age of 17 having a teacher tell me that it was going to lose money just before it opened.
 

I’d heard the buzz just as it was opening at how good it was meant to be and actually got to utter the words “just wait and see. This is a James Cameron film. “

probably my proudest contribution to that class as I got to come in week after week and share with her the latest numbers. 
 

[Nikostar]

Come on Disney with the numbers 

[Cmasterclay]

Don't have anything to add to the Titanic discussion because I was four years old at the time but Avatar was a very formative Mojo experience for me and I just want to make it clear that the 77m OW was about 25 million above everyone's reasonable expectations for that weekend outside a couple Cameron crazies and by the Monday of release it was pretty clear it was going to beat Revenge of the Fallen for the number one spot of the year, which was a big deal in and of itself at the time. Saying this because I saw someone in the tracking thread try to claim that Avatar 2009's OW was disappointing and unless I have implanted memories that just simply isn't true at all - it was a rousing success after months of flop speculation.

[Cooper Legion]

35 minutes ago, Alligator Zatt said:

There is no fracture. Online chatter never factored in actual box office results.

The fracture is not “online chatter.” It is the very “actual box office results” which indicate the fracture.

 

I1

Edited December 16, 2022 by Korra Legion