Weekdays Thread (12/19-22) | Avatar: The Way of 14.5 | Mon 16.2, Tue 18.3, Wed 14.3, Thu 14.5| Puss 3.2 OD | Check In For Your Hourly Weather Update

[JohnnyGossamer]

21 minutes ago, stuart360 said:

His actual quote was somehting like 'we wont have a real idea where the film is heading until the 3rd and 4th weekends', which is fair.

 

Thats not what people are saying in here.

Yes... And, we should absolutely wait that long and have patience. That said, A1 showed sign of absolutely bonkers legs immediately... Look at the holiday stretch of days and first 3 weekends for A1 DOM... A2 is going to have essentially the same first Monday coming off a 36.6M Sunday and 134.1M OW... You'd expect very definite WoM to be very evident within the holiday frame especially with social media where it is today rather than where it was in 2009, no?

 

Dec 18	Friday	1	$26,752,099	-	-	3,452	$7,749	$26,752,099	1
Dec 19	Saturday	1	$25,529,036	-4.6%	-	3,452	$7,395	$52,281,135	2
Dec 20	Sunday	1	$24,744,346	-3.1%	-	3,452	$7,168	$77,025,481	3
Dec 21	Monday	1	$16,385,820	-33.8%	-	3,452	$4,746	$93,411,301	4
Dec 22	Tuesday	1	$16,086,461	-1.8%	-	3,452	$4,660	$109,497,762	5
Dec 23	Wednesday	2	$16,445,291	+2.2%	-	3,452	$4,763	$125,943,053	6
Dec 24	Thursday	1	$11,150,998	-32.2%	-	3,452	$3,230	$137,094,051	7
Dec 25 Christmas Day	Friday	2	$23,095,046	+107.1%	-13.7%	3,456	$6,682	$160,189,097	8
Dec 26	Saturday	1	$28,274,406	+22.4%	+10.8%	3,456	$8,181	$188,463,503	9
Dec 27	Sunday	1	$24,247,681	-14.2%	-2%	3,456	$7,016	$212,711,184	10
Dec 28	Monday	1	$19,418,139	-19.9%	+18.5%	3,456	$5,618	$232,129,323	11
Dec 29	Tuesday	1	$18,290,628	-5.8%	+13.7%	3,456	$5,292	$250,419,951	12
Dec 30	Wednesday	1	$18,466,123	+1%	+12.3%	3,456	$5,343	$268,886,074	13
Dec 31 New Year's Eve	Thursday	1	$14,738,136	-20.2%	+32.2%	3,456	$4,264	$283,624,210	14
Jan 1 New Year's Day	Friday	1	$25,274,008	+71.5%	+9.4%	3,461	$7,302	$308,898,218	15
Jan 2	Saturday	1	$25,835,551	+2.2%	-8.6%	3,461	$7,464	$334,733,769	16
Jan 3	Sunday	1	$17,381,129	-32.7%	-28.3%	3,461	$5,021	$352,114,898	17

 

Dec 18-20	1	$77,025,481	-	3,452	-	$22,313	$77,025,481	1
Dec 25-27	1	$75,617,183	-1.8%	3,456	+4	$21,879	$212,711,184	2
Jan 1-3	1	$68,490,688	-9.4%	3,461	+5	$19,789	$352,114,898	3

[Mulder]

Letter avatars, just joined, inflammatory posts is the BOT version of firstnamebunchofnumbers.

[ZeeSoh]

10 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

So, considering that the WE thread was actually rather chill all things considered, is this gonna be the meltdown thread?  Presuming Early Deadline Estimates are actually on target?

 

(what's the biggest weekday thread we've had recently, anyway?  One without EC related shenanigans, that is)

 

10 hours ago, M37 said:

Would guess TGM’s first or second week 

Post pandemic it was the weekday thread after NWH's OW. For only 2022 it was June 6 - 9th weekday thread (so the weekday thread after TGM's 2nd weekend)

[titanic2187]

Not sure what do people mean by mixed reception. I would agree that DS2, Thor 4, BA or FB3 has mixed reception but this clearly doesn't apply to A2. The reaction overall was quite positive, on par or better than BPWF, NTTD or Shangchi.  They are not exceptional like TGM but neither it is mixed. 

 

That being said, with each day passing, I am actually feeling less and less about its legs. We are now into 4th days but none of the numbers are upbeating. And pandemic forever changed moviegoing during holiday season, if you recall, most of the movies simply didn't get holiday bump as much as in pre-pandemic time. People prefer outdoor or more adventurous activities now during long weekend or holiday.   

[stuart360]

6 minutes ago, ZattMurdock said:

According to Cameron, we are going to have actual lust for the Na’Vis and won’t be able to control ourselves. His words, not mine:

 

And people did. There are tons of cosplays and fan art of Neytiri,. and has been sicne the first film came out.

I mean some people needed professional help over their depression over the movie.

 

Plus he said this in 2009 when people werent complete snowflakes like they are today.

Edited December 20, 2022 by stuart360

[ZattMurdock]

Just now, stuart360 said:

And people did. There are tons of cosplays and fan art of Neytiri,. and has been sicne the first film came out.

I mean some people needed professional help over their depression over the movie.

 

Plus he said this in 2009 when people werent coimplete snowflakes like they are today.

‘Snowflakes’? Huh. 

[Cooper Legion]

23 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

e.g. NWH US drop was 42.2%, Canada drop was -35%.

With or without Quebec

[charlie Jatinder]

1 minute ago, Korra Legion said:

With or without Quebec

can-quebec.

[M37]

8 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

He hasn't made a film in 13 years, so may be don't know how box office work nowdays  😛

In all seriousness, and I've mostly bit my tongue on this pre-release, it does feel (from the outside) as though Disney really let Cameron run the show, and some of the decisions about marketing, show allocation, even running time and budget were ... not business savvy, more of the artist's vision

 

Like he's been so busy writing scripts, filming, working on VFX, etc, that he failed to pop his head out long enough to understand the state of the box office, and bet heavily (generally) on selling a premium experience in a market that is somewhat hostile to the burdens of price point, time commitment, and even leaving the house, while lacking a strong hook on the story (content) side. Flew too close to the sun, as it goes

 

I don't want to focus too much on a single comment, but the remark about going to bathroom and catching what you missed on rewatch came off as ... very out of touch with current audience behavior

[stuart360]

Just now, M37 said:

In all seriousness, and I've mostly bit my tongue on this pre-release, it does feel (from the outside) as though Disney really let Cameron run the show, and some of the decisions about marketing, show allocation, even running time and budget were ... not business savvy, more of the artist's vision

 

Like he's been so busy writing scripts, filming, working on VFX, etc, that he failed to pop his head out long enough to understand the state of the box office, and bet heavily (generally) on selling a premium experience in a market that is somewhat hostile to the burdens of price point, time commitment, and even leaving the house, while lacking a strong hook on the story (content) side. Flew too close to the sun, as it goes

 

I don't want to focus too much on a single comment, but the remark about going to bathroom and catching what you missed on rewatch came off as ... very out of touch with current audience behavior

Fact is until we hear otherwise, Cameron was given 1bil so far to make the sequels. Obviously if we add marketing on top, probably 200mil per movie, we are talking 1.8bil total. Lets round that up to 2bil for little bits of here and there, and we are talking about the sequels needing around 4bil to break even.

 

A2 - 1.5-2bil

A3 - 1.5 -2bil

A3 - 1-1,5bil

A4 - 1-1.5bil

 

5-7bil total.

And i feel those numbers are lowballing, especially for 3 and 4.

 

So yeah the films will post a healthy profit i'm sure.

[AJG]

24 minutes ago, Cap said:

Do you want the real answer, that will probably make a bunch of people angry? Or do you want an easy answer. 
 

The easy answer is Tatum was very popular In his peak days. 

 

Well, does Simon Pegg also get the girls going?

 

[Sheldon Cr]

4 minutes ago, M37 said:

In all seriousness, and I've mostly bit my tongue on this pre-release, it does feel (from the outside) as though Disney really let Cameron run the show, and some of the decisions about marketing, show allocation, even running time and budget were ... not business savvy, more of the artist's vision

 

Like he's been so busy writing scripts, filming, working on VFX, etc, that he failed to pop his head out long enough to understand the state of the box office, and bet heavily (generally) on selling a premium experience in a market that is somewhat hostile to the burdens of price point, time commitment, and even leaving the house, while lacking a strong hook on the story (content) side. Flew too close to the sun, as it goes

 

I don't want to focus too much on a single comment, but the remark about going to bathroom and catching what you missed on rewatch came off as ... very out of touch with current audience behavior

A Bit too Soon to say Cameron is Icarus when Collider and other sources point to many millions of ticket buys on the table from walkins and Older audiences.

Theyre predicting 649-700M domestic.. Seems Cameron is more like Zeus  than Icarus M37.

After 13 yrs Avatar 2 blows aways the competition and hits beyond 2B WW will be the headlines.

 

Always bet on Cameron! 

 

 

[Cooper Legion]

12 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

Not sure what do people mean by mixed reception. I would agree that DS2, Thor 4, BA or FB3 has mixed reception but this clearly doesn't apply to A2. The reaction overall was quite positive, on par or better than BPWF, NTTD or Shangchi.  They are not exceptional like TGM but neither it is mixed

I agree it is clear positive and not mixed (let alone “mixed”) but these 3 aren’t that close? SC>A2=BPWF>NTTD 

[Cooper Legion]

27 minutes ago, Cap said:

Do you want the real answer, that will probably make a bunch of people angry? Or do you want an easy answer. 
 

The easy answer is Tatum was very popular In his peak days. 

 

[BluKyberCrystal]

1 hour ago, THUNDER BIRD said:

What MCU did from Iron Man to Endgame is one if the greatest overall story ever told in cinematic history.

 

But saying that all 23 movies in Infinity Saga were solid is pushing it lol. What MCU did well was deliver good content time to time so that it hide the wrak one's, even public ignored them and focused on the larger story.

 

You saying Cameron is not being able to deliver 2nd solid Avatar is senseless if you consider likes of Hulk, IM2, CM, IM3, TDW solid.

 

It it easily better than more than half of MCU content of Infinity Saga so no, you saying Avatar 2 isn't solid while you say those movies as solid isn't valid argument.

I agree not every movie pushed the story forward and I think Hulk is one of those flicks that could be removed and nothing changes.

 

But what the series of films did was endear characters to the audiences. In that way, it built to Endgame. Made people care when these characters were on screen together.

[Cooper Legion]

11 minutes ago, M37 said:

I don't want to focus too much on a single comment, but the remark about going to bathroom and catching what you missed on rewatch came off as ... very out of touch with current audience behavior

BOT telegram fucking loved this one. I didn’t get into it but my eyebrow was, uh, raised

[titanic2187]

1 hour ago, THUNDER BIRD said:

What MCU did from Iron Man to Endgame is one if the greatest overall story ever told in cinematic history.

 

But saying that all 23 movies in Infinity Saga were solid is pushing it lol. What MCU did well was deliver good content time to time so that it hide the wrak one's, even public ignored them and focused on the larger story.

 

You saying Cameron is not being able to deliver 2nd solid Avatar is senseless if you consider likes of Hulk, IM2, CM, IM3, TDW solid.

 

It it easily better than more than half of MCU content of Infinity Saga so no, you saying Avatar 2 isn't solid while you say those movies as solid isn't valid argument.

I rank Avatar 2 as the worst JC film, in line with A1 but the idea of many MCU films are better than A2 is still something I can't stomach. Most MCU characters writing are bland and even lazy, only to have enough joke to distract you from sub-par writing. And the recent one was even worse as they start showing the lack of sincerity in production value. 

 

The few MCU films that I can agree are better than A2 are IW, CM2 and very few others. IW especially earned my respect and I always call IW as the Godfather entry of MCU. 

 

 

 

[nguyenkhoi282]

21 minutes ago, stuart360 said:

Fact is until we hear otherwise, Cameron was given 1bil so far to make the sequels. Obviously if we add marketing on top, probably 200mil per movie, we are talking 1.8bil total. Lets round that up to 2bil for little bits of here and there, and we are talking about the sequels needing around 4bil to break even.

 

A2 - 1.5-2bil

A3 - 1.5 -2bil

A3 - 1-1,5bil

A4 - 1-1.5bil

 

5-7bil total.

And i feel those numbers are lowballing, especially for 3 and 4.

 

So yeah the films will post a healthy profit i'm sure.

You don't really need to add marketing to calculate break even point. Usually, as I've seen from the yearly Deadline's Profit Tournament, extra costs are often covered by post-theatrical revenues. So, it's mostly just what goes back to the studios minus production budget and that's it. 

So taking the middle ground of your estimate, $6B (assuming 30/70 split) translates to about $2.5B coming back to the studios, minus $1B of production cost, netting a total profit of $1.5B.

[interiorgatordecorator]

21 minutes ago, M37 said:

I don't want to focus too much on a single comment, but the remark about going to bathroom and catching what you missed on rewatch came off as ... very out of touch with current audience behavior

 

not sure whats the point of focusing on a single random point in a single interview to assume big things about the movies development, pretty clear he said it with a big grin on his face, and Cameron movies are famous for repeat viewings, and with TGM as a recent example, dont really think its a particularly noteworthy comment

[JohnnyGossamer]

16 minutes ago, Sheldon Cr said:

A Bit too Soon to say Cameron is Icarus when Collider and other sources point to many millions of ticket buys on the table from walkins and Older audiences.

Theyre predicting 649-700M domestic.. Seems Cameron is more like Zeus  than Icarus M37.

After 13 yrs Avatar 2 blows aways the competition and hits beyond 2B WW will be the headlines.

 

Always bet on Cameron! 

 

 

I could absolutely still do 2B+ WW and 600M+ DOM... I think people are more so thinking to come down from the expectation of 750M+ DOM and 2.5B+ WW... Didn't you have this one locked for 1B+ DOM and 3B+ WW? Now, what... You're more in line with Collider's expectations of 650M+ DOM and 2B+ WW?