Weekdays Thread (12/19-22) | Avatar: The Way of 14.5 | Mon 16.2, Tue 18.3, Wed 14.3, Thu 14.5| Puss 3.2 OD | Check In For Your Hourly Weather Update

[JWR]

2 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

 

Imo, when it comes to Shrek, its less about the movies themes/plot and more about the character itself. Everyone who is right now over 20 years old knows Shrek and most of them have seen atleast 1 of the movies. Shrek is a giant part of meme and pop culture. A fifth movie that comes close to the quality of Shrek 1 and 2 would be massive.

 

If it's as good as those first two, yes. 

[M37]

26 minutes ago, reddevil19 said:

I dunno about that. If it ends around Rogue 1, then I think the haters will still be pleased. It's definitely a movie where these gigantic numbers can't be viewed in a vacuum, but relative to cost, expectations and its predecessor. Its gonna be a financial success, but when it drops a billion from the first movie, I think the haters will be satisfied lol. 

As someone who is likely perceived as one of those “haters” (or at least doubters), I was far more invested in trying to pump the breaks on expectations before release than rooting for the lowest numbers possible. Finishing around Rogue One or below would be disappointing from the range I had in mind before, but I put a lot of that on Disney (Cameron) for misjudging the market, largely resting on laurels and presumed popularity of the original, and failing to actively sell audiences on this new entry

 

[filmlover]

Definitely a quiet start for Puss in Boots but let's see how it recovers once Christmas Day is done.

[Danhjpn]

Its over

This movie is flopping

Its fate is certain

 

[Nero]

3 minutes ago, M37 said:

As someone who is likely perceived as one of those “haters” (or at least doubters), I was far more invested in trying to pump the breaks on expectations before release than rooting for the lowest numbers possible. Finishing around Rogue One or below would be disappointing from the range I had in mind before, but I put a lot of that on Disney (Cameron) for misjudging the market, largely resting on laurels and presumed popularity of the original, and failing to actively sell audiences on this new entry

 

You have reasonable expectations for a movie ??? Fricking hater. I always say aim for the moon and get as high as possible maybe highest possible. Only those who think optimistically like me without giving regards to reason and sesne I call them lovers of the movie. 

[wildphantom]

Reports that @Brainbug and BioSyn might be behind this freak weather in an attempt to bring that second weekend under Dominion.  They didn’t stop at locusts

[YM!]

That 3.1M for Puss is bad but Early Access can inflate it some, however it could rebound because there’s idk a big fucking storm about to hit and maybe this is hypothetical based on years of history but New Years and a free slate until Mario might help.
 

I agree Covid has fucked theatrical animation and the only way to stop

the effect like far longer windows isn’t what studios want to do, but 2023 shit like Mario and SpiderVerse won’t be doomed to do Lightyear numbers like some people trying to bait are doing especially when both are highly anticipated outside of kids. If SpiderVerse doesn’t hit expectations which I personally think it won’t is because the people at Sony foolishly thought it stand a chance in a too crowded summer, and if Mario doesn’t hit probably too high expectations and does idk around 200m domestic which is still a fantastic result, it’s because we had another Pikachu we didn’t anticipate. A lot of animation that flopped this year was highly unappealing too (Lightyear, Super Pets, Lyle, Strange World) and we had so little animation in the first place this year and if Bad Guys didn’t open against Sonic 2 and Beasts and maybe moved earlier it’d have stronger results.  

Edited December 22, 2022 by YM!

[reddevil19]

4 minutes ago, wildphantom said:

Reports that @Brainbug and BioSyn might be behind this freak weather in an attempt to bring that second weekend under Dominion.  They didn’t stop at locusts

The snow is actually tiny tiny locusts. They went the opposite way now, instead of giant ones. 

[Brainbug]

6 minutes ago, wildphantom said:

Reports that @Brainbug and BioSyn might be behind this freak weather in an attempt to bring that second weekend under Dominion.  They didn’t stop at locusts

 

WHY DO YOU HAVE TO EXPOSE ME LIKE THAT I WANTED IT TO BE A CHRISTMAS SURPRISE REVEAL FOR JIMBO

[M37]

19 hours ago, M37 said:

So you're gonna make me do math? Fine. Here are MON to Wed changes for these same titles, also adding the DOM/OWeek ratio, which shows decent correlation

 

NWH (12/22/21) = -25.0% [2.09x] (Sing 2, Matrix, King's Man)

TLJ (12/20/17) = -21.6% [2.09x] (Jumanji WTJ, Greatest Showman)

RO (12/21/16) = -14.9% [2.40x] (Sing, Assassin's Creed, Passengers)

TFA (12/23/15) = -5.2% [2.40x] (no Wed openings)

 

A $16M Wed (-12.6 Tue, -1.6% Mon) would be a good signal on legs, but even matching the 2.4x (~$200M OWeek) would be below $500M. Going to need an outlier of ~3x just to get to $600M

A $14M+ Wed, while a bigger drop from Tue, is still going be less than 14% drop from Mon, in line with RO, but not showing major indicators of a second wave/great legs brewing.

 

I'm still willing to entertain the argument that Avatwo is a less fan heavy/rush to see film, and numbers can improve from the current RO baseline track from Christmas Day onward, but the longer it takes for there to be separation, the stronger kick is needed to create a meaningful gap in grosses.

 

RO went $25.8/$32.1/$22.5 from 12/25-27, so we'll see if Avatwo can match or even beat those totals

[filmlover]

It's gonna end up being a really muted holiday box office if Avatar drops big and doesn't recover since the holidays were clearly dependent on it being a monster, especially with so little else out (Puss will probably leg it out to $100M at best, Whitney and Babylon look like inevitable underperformers). Oh well.

[Hatebox]

You could have some fun Cultural Impact™ debates around Shrek. Huge hits at the time but I think the earnestness of Pixar won out and remains the feature animation template to this day.

[M37]

23 minutes ago, Nero said:

You have reasonable expectations for a movie ??? Fricking hater. I always say aim for the moon and get as high as possible maybe highest possible. Only those who think optimistically like me without giving regards to reason and sesne I call them lovers of the movie. 

I’m not sure how much of that should be tagged with /s, but the reality is that “expectations” do matter, in that every movie is by default an investment, fronting costs for an expected return later. When we see “disappointing” results, it impacts what content and how much studios are willing to spend moving forward

 

This year, outside of the summer, has been mostly bad on that front, and I’m a little concerned how the industry reacts from here, both on studio and especially exhibition side. Theaters were banking on bigger numbers for Nov & Dec, and I think we’re going to see some fallout come next year 

[JWR]

28 minutes ago, YM! said:

That 3.1M for Puss is bad but Early Access can inflate it some, however it could rebound because there’s idk a big fucking storm about to hit and maybe this is hypothetical based on years of history but New Years and a free slate until Mario might help.
 

I agree Covid has fucked theatrical animation and the only way to stop

the effect like far longer windows isn’t what studios want to do, but 2023 shit like Mario and SpiderVerse won’t be doomed to do Lightyear numbers like some people trying to bait are doing especially when both are highly anticipated outside of kids. If SpiderVerse doesn’t hit expectations which I personally think it won’t is because the people at Sony foolishly thought it stand a chance in a too crowded summer, and if Mario doesn’t hit probably too high expectations and does idk around 200m domestic which is still a fantastic result, it’s because we had another Pikachu we didn’t anticipate. A lot of animation that flopped this year was highly unappealing too (Lightyear, Super Pets, Lyle, Strange World) and we had so little animation in the first place this year and if Bad Guys didn’t open against Sonic 2 and Beasts and maybe moved earlier it’d have stronger results.  

 

2023 looks like a much stronger year for animation.

 

Mario is a surefire hit, Spider-Verse 2 has a lot of goodwill, Elemental should be an easier sell than Lightyear, Wish is a Disney Princess movie so it practically sells itself.

[JWR]

14 minutes ago, Hatebox said:

You could have some fun Cultural Impact™ debates around Shrek. Huge hits at the time but I think the earnestness of Pixar won out and remains the feature animation template to this day.

 

Shrek did have a cultural impact. Just maybe not in ways that helped its reputation age well. 

[stuart360]

1 hour ago, IronJimbo said:

cringe weatherstorm generated by haters tears

Noticd a few in here who have come back with the 14 number, who were totally absent the last day with the 18.3 Tuesday.

What are they going to say if all the other films already out show a similar drop today showing that its obviously down to the weather?.

😋

 

[filmlover]

16 minutes ago, M37 said:

I’m not sure how much of that should be tagged with /s, but the reality is that “expectations” do matter, in that every movie is by default an investment, fronting costs for an expected return later. When we see “disappointing” results, it impacts what content and how much studios are willing to spend moving forward

 

This year, outside of the summer, has been mostly bad on that front, and I’m a little concerned how the industry reacts from here, both on studio and especially exhibition side. Theaters were banking on bigger numbers for Nov & Dec, and I think we’re going to see some fallout come next year 

We already are? This is what November/December look like next year:

 

11/3: Dune 2

11/17: Hunger Games, Trolls 3

11/22: Wish

12/15: Wonka

12/20: The Color Purple, Ghostbusters

12/22: Migration

12/25: Aquaman 2

 

Of course, studios will almost certainly date other stuff in this corridor (Disney/20th Century have the Tom Hardy/Austin Butler/Jodie Comer movie from Jeff Nichols and will almost certainly give it for a fourth quarter release), but overall, with production looking on the slow side...

[JohnnyGossamer]

13 minutes ago, stuart360 said:

Noticd a few in here who have come back with the 14 number, who were totally absent the last day with the 18.3 Tuesday.

What are they going to say if all the other films already out show a similar drop today showing that its obviously down to the weather?.

😋

 

Other films will show a similar drop... Maybe more. Because everything else increased way more than A2 from Monday to Tuesday. There will be normal Wednesday drops then really good numbers maybe starting as early as today with many people off now and more and more off school.

[Joyous Legion]

Few surer signs of poor analysis than treating wed/tues as meaningful.   
 

If you want a sense of how much it’s from movie specific performance vs overall market, looks at share of gross (excluding wed opens) for wed vs mon and compare that to RO, SH2, and KK

[cdsacken]

Next 2.5 weeks really determine legs. After that school is back and it will fall hard.