Weekdays Thread (12/19-22) | Avatar: The Way of 14.5 | Mon 16.2, Tue 18.3, Wed 14.3, Thu 14.5| Puss 3.2 OD | Check In For Your Hourly Weather Update

[stuart360]

5 minutes ago, StreamBO said:

Avatar 2 is good but what happens if Avatar 2 worldwide comes below Top Gun Maverick. 

Top Gun wins the year?

[StreamBO]

2 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

 

Generally speaking cultural phenomenons like No Way Home and Top Gun 2 are massively successful because they are well executed crowd pleasers.

 

2022 didn't really have many films that meet that criteria.That was my original point.

Transformer 1-4 were cultural phenomenons. 

[JohnnyGossamer]

Babylon numbers gonna be rough.

[RamblinRed]

I think this update for Box Office Pro is probably the most accurate thing I've seen concerning this weekend. I'm hoping for a roughly $50M 3-day, $75M 4-day for A2. If we assume A2 Thursday is around 14-15M then is it about $23-24M behind R1 going into the weekend. If the $75 4-day is accurate than it is roughly $45M behind R1 by end of day Monday. Then we will have to see how the box office performs the rest of that week (Monday after a Christmas weekend is the biggest day for the movies and then the box office declines every day until Friday).

In 2016 box office was up +12.9% on Monday after Christmas day and then Tues -22,2%, Wed -16.1%, Thur -4.5%, Fri +14.3%, Sat +4%, Sun - 25.7%, Mon -4.7%.

FWIW R1 that week went Sun (Christmas Day) +69% - i'd expect A2 to jump larger, Mon +24.1%, Tues -33%, Wed -20%, Thur -7.2%, Fri +9%, Sat -19.7%, Sun +14.5%, Mon -5%, Tues -60.6%.

 

 

 

Thursday Update: With a major winter storm sweeping across the country and impacting holiday travel plans for many, prior box office forecasts leading into the weekend are likely no longer as relevant with moviegoing expected to be impacted as well.

 

 

[grey ghost]

20 minutes ago, StreamBO said:

Thor 4 was so much enterteiment, so much joking that some people said you are enterteining toooo much, stop. 

 

Trying to entertain and successfully entertaining are two separate things.

[StreamBO]

2 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

 

Trying to entertain and successfully entertaining are two separate things.

It did sucessfully entertain A LOOOTTT. 

Edited December 23, 2022 by StreamBO

[grey ghost]

10 minutes ago, StreamBO said:

Transformer 1-4 were cultural phenomenons. 

 

Why do ya'll keep bringing up Bayformers?

 

Maybe because they were exceptions?

[Nero]

1 minute ago, StreamBO said:

It did sucessfully entertain A LOOOTTT

I think you are missing the point. Check Thor's audience score as well as RT. What do you think the general consensus is? It's a mixed bag. Lot of people didn't like it. So it failed 

[grey ghost]

2 minutes ago, StreamBO said:

It did sucessfully entertain A LOOOTTT

 

I couldn't finish it and I'm a Marvel loonie but to each their own.

[AJG]

13 hours ago, AJG said:

DOA

 

I’m guessing they bribed their way to that Golden Globe nomination.

 

How much did Paramount pay RT to do this?

 

 

Black Adam Level fraud at play here

[StreamBO]

Just now, grey ghost said:

 

Why do ya'll keep bringing up Bayformers?

 

Maybe because they were exceptions?

They are not expections, Aquaman neither, Jurassic World movies neither, Iron Man 3 neither, Minions neither, Alice in Wonderland neither, Phantom Menace neither. 

[Lestranger]

-38 windchill now in Wisconsin, trying to get the fam to see Fabelamn's tomorrow. But we will probably just binge new Jack Ryan. Streaming ftw.

[Alex SciChannel]

Is it possible that PiBTLW actually increases from first to second weekend because of the winter storm?

[jedijake]

5 minutes ago, RamblinRed said:

I think this update for Box Office Pro is probably the most accurate thing I've seen concerning this weekend. I'm hoping for a roughly $50M 3-day, $75M 4-day for A2. If we assume A2 Thursday is around 14-15M then is it about $23-24M behind R1 going into the weekend. If the $75 4-day is accurate than it is roughly $45M behind R1 by end of day Monday. Then we will have to see how the box office performs the rest of that week (Monday after a Christmas weekend is the biggest day for the movies and then the box office declines every day until Friday).

In 2016 box office was up +12.9% on Monday after Christmas day and then Tues -22,2%, Wed -16.1%, Thur -4.5%, Fri +14.3%, Sat +4%, Sun - 25.7%, Mon -4.7%.

FWIW R1 that week went Sun (Christmas Day) +69% - i'd expect A2 to jump larger, Mon +24.1%, Tues -33%, Wed -20%, Thur -7.2%, Fri +9%, Sat -19.7%, Sun +14.5%, Mon -5%, Tues -60.6%.

 

 

 

Thursday Update: With a major winter storm sweeping across the country and impacting holiday travel plans for many, prior box office forecasts leading into the weekend are likely no longer as relevant with moviegoing expected to be impacted as well.

 

 

$50 million is too low for the weekend.. Probably closer to $60, but not $50.

 

Friday: $19 m

Saturday $14 m

Sunday $27 m ($60m weekend, $256.8m total)

Then:

Monday: $28m

Tuesday: $20m

Wednesday: $18m

Thursday: $17 m

Weekend #3

Friday: $17.5 m

Saturday: $13.0m

Sunday: $16.5m ($47 m, $386.8m total)

 

That will be between 75%-80% of the total. Total domestic box office run between  $483.5m to $515m. Ironically, that is where a lot of people thought BPWF would end up. It is possible, although unlikely with the holds we've been seeing, that it will be 70% of the total which would put it at $552.6 m.

 

[JohnnyGossamer]

1 minute ago, StreamBO said:

They are not expections, Aquaman neither, Jurassic World movies neither, Iron Man 3 neither, Minions neither, Alice in Wonderland neither, Phantom Menace neither. 

I think people actually liked Aquaman and it had a good release date to help with it's run in theaters.

People absolutely fucking loved Jurassic World... The first one at least.

Iron Man 3's WoM showed in its legs a bit but that movie wasn't hated It's a fun movie. Nice, covert Christmas movie too.

Alice was huge because it was the first huge live action Alice with Burton and 3D (released spring after Avatar, right?)

Phantom Menace was huge hype and absolutely state of the art effects for the time. It's a crowd pleaser though.

[filmlover]

15 minutes ago, JohnnyGossamer said:

Babylon numbers gonna be rough.

Whitney is also looking to not see a return on its investment since it too reportedly carries a big price tag. I'd say "good luck to studios with their prestige fare next holiday season" but looking at the schedule and what's in the studio pipeline, they're pretty much wiping the slate clean of them. Sigh, but what can you do.

[grey ghost]

3 minutes ago, StreamBO said:

They are not expections, Aquaman neither, Jurassic World movies neither, Iron Man 3 neither, Minions neither, Alice in Wonderland neither, Phantom Menace neither. 

 

How many movies in the top 20 worldwide were bad movies?

 

Maybe The Last Jedi and that's it.

[StreamBO]

Whats avatar 2 OS today? 

[BadOlCatSylvester]

1 minute ago, Alex SciChannel said:

Is it possible that PiBTLW actually increases from first to second weekend because of the winter storm?

As @Cap finally pointed out, we live in an era of instant gratification. If people can't catch it in theaters in its first week or two, then they won't see it at all. They'll probably catch it on streaming a couple of years from now. Both Avatar 2 and Puss in Boots 2 are going to be hit hard by this new reality. The latter's going to be out on digital in a couple of weeks' time anyway per Universal's guidelines.

[JohnnyGossamer]

1 minute ago, jedijake said:

$50 million is too low for the weekend.. Probably closer to $60, but not $50.

 

Friday: $19 m

Saturday $14 m

Sunday $27 m ($60m weekend, $256.8m total)

Then:

Monday: $28m

Tuesday: $20m

Wednesday: $18m

Thursday: $17 m

Weekend #3

Friday: $17.5 m

Saturday: $13.0m

Sunday: $16.5m ($47 m, $386.8m total)

 

That will be between 75%-80% of the total. Total domestic box office run between  $483.5m to $515m. Ironically, that is where a lot of people thought BPWF would end up. It is possible, although unlikely with the holds we've been seeing, that it will be 70% of the total which would put it at $552.6 m.

 

Your 19M Friday number might be a little high given the storm pounding large chunks of the states today. I'm not sure A2 will increase 4.5M from yesterday's 14.5M.