Christmas Weekend Thread | Avatar 95.6m, PiB 20.05m, Babylon 4.85m 4 days

[Lion Roar]

Welp, my building's water main broke so we're without heat and water for a few days. Gonna have to decamp to a hotel and hope for the best.

[Flopped]

Any way you slice it, A2 is a big box office disappointment. We can say "but wait for, just wait till" all day but anything short of highest grossing movie of all time is a disappointment. That seems unfair but that's the standard Cameron set for himself. 

[Cheddar Please]

6 minutes ago, JustLurking said:

I'm pretty skeptical on Spidey4 even doing better than A3 to begin with. Domestically, perhaps since it looks like A2 might underperform here, but unless they can figure out another hook as powerful as the multiverse one, I just don't see how worldwide happens.

While I agree that NWH was the high water mark in terms of Spider-Man BO, I feel like the one-two punch of Spiderverse and NWH has really elevated the Spider-Man brand to new heights in terms of popular reception. Combined with Sony's push for cinemas (due to their lack of a proper streaming service), I do see future Spider-Man titles easily gunning for some of the highest grosses of the year going forwards

[JustLurking]

Just now, Menor Reborn said:

Spidey 4 and A3 are both dropping significantly so just depends on which drops more I guess.

A3 will likely have better ER to work with than A2 which is bound to counteract the declining returns a bunch - plus perhaps a healthier China on top of it. Even assuming the MCU gets China back for spidey, AEG-boosted FFH only made 1.1b, would need a significant increase to get to where A3 will probably land. I'm sure it will retain some of the NWH audience but I'm pretty skeptical on how much.

[StreamBO]

Avatar works when they have no competition, or a counter-programing that does not affect them, Spidey would affect them massively. The audience overlaps and the franchise has extreme goodwill after No Way Home with general audiences. 

[Issac Newton]

 

 

 

[stuart360]

4 minutes ago, Menor Reborn said:

Spidey 4 and A3 are both dropping significantly so just depends on which drops more I guess.

Thats far from certain in A3's case when you take into account China shouldnt be infested in covid 2 years from now (A2 is losing 400-600mil from its tootal gross because of China), and you would expect exchange rates to be better 2 years from now.

 

I wont be at all surprised if A3 outgroseses A2 WW.

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

4 minutes ago, Legion in Boots said:

SM4 will probably do some 600 DOM and 800 OS-C-R (2:1 weighted blend FFH:NWH adjusted 2024)

 

A3 maybe 440 DOM, 1B OS-C-R, ??? C (-20%, being generous) 
 

Neither would be very happy sharing dates, if Sony puts a marker down on dec 24 my guess is that Disney would move to A3 to 25 but more as a face saving way to take more time on Star Wars production than because they were “scared” of SM4 or whatever.

 

Call it a hunch but I wouldn't bank on SM4 being a December film.

[Issac Newton]

 

 

 

[Issac Newton]

 

 

 

[DAR]

7 minutes ago, Flopped said:

Any way you slice it, A2 is a big box office disappointment. We can say "but wait for, just wait till" all day but anything short of highest grossing movie of all time is a disappointment. That seems unfair but that's the standard Cameron set for himself. 

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

3 minutes ago, stuart360 said:

Thats far from certain in A3's case when you take into account China shouldnt be infested in covid 2 years from now (A2 is losing 400-600mil from its tootal gross because of China), and you would expect exchange rates to be better 2 years from now.

 

I wont be at all surprised if A3 outgroseses A2 WW.

 

Not including China for obvious reasons in both cases, I would expect both SM4 and A3 to drop admissions by 20-30% compared to NWH/ATWOW. 

 

[Issac Newton]

 

 

 

[Menor the Destroyer]

5 minutes ago, stuart360 said:

Thats far from certain in A3's case when you take into account China shouldnt be infested in covid 2 years from now (A2 is losing 400-600mil from its tootal gross because of China), and you would expect exchange rates to be better 2 years from now.

 

I wont be at all surprised if A3 outgroseses A2 WW.

China point is fair, but I expect admissions drop to be pretty significant elsewhere and will counteract ER. We'll see.

[BadOlCatSylvester]

3 minutes ago, Issac Newton said:

 

 

 

What a wet fart of a capper for what has otherwise been a terrific year for the studio. I'm genuinely curious why this year in particular has been so savage and brutal towards serious/prestige filmmaking. General audiences being tired of murkiness in film when they're getting plenty of it in the news already?

[stuart360]

4 minutes ago, XXR It's 2 Damn Cold Out said:

 

Not including China for obvious reasons in both cases, I would expect both SM4 and A3 to drop admissions by 20-30% compared to NWH/ATWOW. 

 

Not including China, i could maybe see that. Include a proper full run in China for A3 and China's gross alone could cancel out that fall in admissions.

Edited December 24, 2022 by stuart360

[Krissykins]

That is a horrific opening number for Babylon. Wow.

[ThomasNicole]

Yeah i'll take 19.5M very happilly after these gigantic storms, it did great and bodes well for next week 

 

 

[Gkalaitza]

Yeah 19.5 seems solid. Not that hard to imagine it being 22.5-23.5m without the weather

Edited December 24, 2022 by Gkalaitza

[Eric Prime]

1 minute ago, BadOlCatSylvester said:

What a wet fart of a capper for what has otherwise been a terrific year for the studio. I'm genuinely curious why this year in particular has been so savage and brutal towards serious/prestige filmmaking. General audiences being tired of murkiness in film when they're getting plenty of it in the news already?

These movies don't sell Happy Meals and audiences don't want to see movies that don't sell Happy Meals.