Christmas-New Year Weekdays Thread || Avatar $20.1M THU - Top 10 DOM or Bust!

[BadOlCatSylvester]

6 minutes ago, JohnnyGossamer said:

While I agree that people want more options, Strange 2 and potentially Panther 2 would've likely both grossed more WW if they'd have gotten a China release. Sans China, Dominion does less than both WW. So this is a bit misleading. But, more so, Jurassic franchise is huge and bigger than superhero movies on average.

 

Top Gun was huge for a number of reasons... But, primarily due to the phenomenal theatrical experience with the show Kosinski and Cruise put on. It'll be a Best Picture nominee and is arguably the best received non superhero blockbuster since Fury Road.

 

Avatar was already bigger than superhero movies, especially OS, aside from maybe one Avengers movie.

 

Think this is massively oversimplying things.

There is also the fact that both Multiverse of Madness and Love and Thunder were simply not up to par for most audiences. One was irresponsibly and falsely advertised as something it never was, and the other is incredibly polarizing. I imagine the bitter taste of those, along with its long runtime and dreary tone as well as the lack of a real lead led Wakanda Forever to massively underperform. Maverick and Dominion both got lucky, let's say.

[Torontofan]

Avatar 1 massively over performed in canada. I think it still the highest grosser or its number 2 all time 2 in canada ?

 

I feel avatar 2 is as well and that why estimate keeps going up.

[KlapEastwood]

5 minutes ago, BadOlCatSylvester said:

There is also the fact that both Multiverse of Madness and Love and Thunder were simply not up to par for most audiences. One was irresponsibly and falsely advertised as something it never was, and the other is incredibly polarizing. I imagine the bitter taste of those, along with its long runtime and dreary tone as well as the lack of a real lead led Wakanda Forever to massively underperform. Maverick and Dominion both got lucky, let's say.

MoM was marketed as a horror entry for the MCU and that’s exactly what we got. I’m glad they kept the surprises tucked away. Easily the best MCU movie in a long time.

 

usually when I make a weekend prediction, it happens. Don’t be surprised when this makes 61 millys 

[JohnnyGossamer]

14 minutes ago, CJohn said:

I am not sure if Black Panther has enough juice in the tank to outgross JW3-China. JW3 without China did ~844M. Black Panther is sitting at 806M.

It may fall short but should get to 825M+ just with what it will add DOM. Is it done adding any receipts OS? Regardless, my point stands that Jurassic wasn't exactly bigger than Strange and Panther. About the same as Panther when excluding China and 100M+ less than Strange when excluding China.

 

But, Top Gun and Avatar were absolutely the biggest movies this year. Both lean heavy into MUST SEE in theater events and both benefited greatly from delivering on that hook as they're both phenomenal in giant, premium auditoriums.

 

Just looking DOM though... 4 of the top 8 are still superhero movies. 2 or the top 4 are still superhero movies.

 

1. Top Gun

2. Avatar

3. Black Panther

4. Doctor Strange

5. Jurassic

6. Minions

7. Batman

8. Thor

[JohnnyGossamer]

12 minutes ago, BadOlCatSylvester said:

There is also the fact that both Multiverse of Madness and Love and Thunder were simply not up to par for most audiences. One was irresponsibly and falsely advertised as something it never was, and the other is incredibly polarizing. I imagine the bitter taste of those, along with its long runtime and dreary tone as well as the lack of a real lead led Wakanda Forever to massively underperform. Maverick and Dominion both got lucky, let's say.

Yes... I don't think it led to any underperformance for Panther but I do think it's why Panther comfortably grossed more than each DOM though. It was a better received movie.

[BadOlCatSylvester]

6 minutes ago, KlapEastwood said:

MoM was marketed as a horror entry for the MCU and that’s exactly what we got. I’m glad they kept the surprises tucked away. Easily the best MCU movie in a long time.

 

usually when I make a weekend prediction, it happens. Don’t be surprised when this makes 61 millys 

I got more of an impression of this being essentially a massive crossover event film starring heroes from previous Marvel universes. Revealing Xavier in the trailer was a lethal mistake, as it raised expectations to an unrealistic and unattainable level. I'd argue they should have been more conservative and not revealed the Illuminati before the movie itself.

[cubsfan]

Is that 60+ for 3 day or including Monday 4 day?

[stripe]

1 hour ago, charlie Jatinder said:

19.75
5.7

 

Wonderful! That would be 3M+ than RO same Thursday.

 

PiB basically staying flat from Wednesday is also more than great. It will be at around 67M after Holidays. Animation really needs this to be as succesful as possible!

 

[stripe]

8 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

Is that 60+ for 3 day or including Monday 4 day?

3day
Friday 22-23
Saturday 16-17

Sunday 21-22

[kayumanggi]

I'm just happy for the good runs of AVATAR: THE WAY OF WATER and PUSS IN BOOTS: THE LAST WISH. 😀

[stephanos13]

56 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

avatar 1 is def not usable. it is to be seen if A2 can trend as well as NWH in late legs.

A1 was already trending strongly before holidays, A2 hasn't shown those massive improvements.
(@M37 did a very good visual representation other day.)

 

I think he meant there is no movie to compare Avatar 2.

[Deep Wang]

1 hour ago, IronJimbo said:

what are you guys gonna do when you realise your comps are all useless because there's only 1 Avatar 2

 

I love that everything you say about Avatar 2 reeks of "I told you so" but you're the same guy that said it was going to make a billion domestic, lol.

[IronJimbo]

1 hour ago, charlie Jatinder said:

avatar 1 is def not usable. it is to be seen if A2 can trend as well as NWH in late legs.

A1 was already trending strongly before holidays, A2 hasn't shown those massive improvements.
(@M37 did a very good visual representation other day.)

 

glad you agree there is only 1 A2

 

[Dragoncaine]

2 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

19.75
5.7

This rocks, my $55m 3-day hopes are about to be blown out of the water lmao

[JustLurking]

3 minutes ago, Deep Wang said:

 

I love that everything you say about Avatar 2 reeks of "I told you so" but you're the same guy that said it was going to make a billion domestic, lol.

time for the 1 billion (canadian) dollars pivot

[Legion Again]

2 minutes ago, JustLurking said:

time for the 1 billion (canadian) dollars pivot

Even then it’s a bigger miss than the 573 that got huge skepticism until the final moments.

[eridani]

I find it incredible that A2 is going almost twice as well in France than it's doing in the UK. What is the reason for that? (for A1, France did 20% better than UK)

 

Are movie tickets in UK much more expensive?

(but if the above applies, then the drop in audience number would somewhat be compensated by higher earnings per ticket)

Has the standard of living really dropped that much more in UK recently?

Have the reviews really been that savage in UK, compared to France?

Or is there some other reason?

 

[JustLurking]

2 minutes ago, Legion in Boots said:

Even then it’s a bigger miss than the 573 that got huge skepticism until the final moments.

Yesn't

Depending on how it trends it could land smack middle or slightly above with canadian dollars, though those are optimistic, I'm on low 600s finish.

[Nero]

59 minutes ago, CJohn said:

I am not sure if Black Panther has enough juice in the tank to outgross JW3-China. JW3 without China did ~844M. Black Panther is sitting at 806M.

It'll be close. BP is having good late legs

[Juby]

BP:WF will be realised on Disney+ in two weeks from now probably. It would be the end of "good late legs" for it.

 

1 hour ago, IronJimbo said:

ah, very cool. 700m soon

$700m looks really hard for now. But if the drops this weekend and the next one will push the film over $500m on Sunday Jan 8th, I think with as stron late legs in the next 3 months as Spider-Man: No Way Home had, Avatar might go as high as $640m dom. I'm hoping for $655m