New Years Weekend Thread || Dec. 30-Jan. 1 || ATWOW $67.4M 3rd WE - $88.8M 4-Day WE — Orange Panther $22.6M 4-Day!

[IronJimbo]

4 minutes ago, Dale Cooper said:

If it does 24m on Friday, and about 65m for the weekend I'd think this have a genuine chance to reach 700m.

 

#5 Dom is in the bag

[Letsuseournoggin]

26 minutes ago, Wafflecakes said:

Honestly no idea. Looked at my post history and I didn't really post at all when I was new.

 

Looked at the release schedule and nothing interesting was happening. 

I might have been lurking earlier in the year for Harry Potter and just didn't get around to joining until November. I had been following BO casually for a long time, but mostly on gaming forums. Someone there must have been referencing this place.

 

EDIT: Oh. Looks like most of the long time members joined that month. Might have been right after BoM collapsed or something?

That definitely makes sense! I know I was a BOM lurker for years and the collapse you speak of sounds like something that happened but might need my memory jogged 😂 🤷‍♂️ 

[THUNDER BIRD]

1 hour ago, charlie Jatinder said:

looks like 23.5-24M. 

Well James Cameron did say to wait till 3rd weekend.

[Elessar]

11 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

I'm assuming you currently think that as A2 has followed R1 through the holidays it will do the same after? Rogue 1's drop off after the holidays was extremely sharp, so sharp that you have to give a reason why you think Avatar 2 will do the same. It shouldn't be expected to follow R1

 

Well, the first few days after OW weren't exactly brilliant but after Sunday it is continually outperforming Rogue One which is why i have been thinking it should outdo it in the end but i haven't quite been on the $600m train yet.

 

Has Rogue One performed that badly after Holidays? Just looking at the weekend drops, its only drop over 50% (for a long while) was right after new year. Sure it might not have been anything to write home about but awful i think it was not.

Edited December 31, 2022 by Elessar

[IronJimbo]

7 minutes ago, Elessar said:

 

Well, the first few days after OW weren't exactly brilliant but after Sunday it is continually outperforming Rogue One which is why i have been thinking it should outdo it in the end but i haven't quite been on the $600m train yet.

 

Has Rogue One performed that badly after Holidays? Just looking at the weekend drops, its only drop over 50% (for a long while) was right after new year.

 

Yeah Rogue One does really poorly after the holidays, it makes $93m after the four day weekend coming up.

For example it goes from a New Years Weekend of $49m to 4th weekend $22m then 5th weekeend $13m then $7m 6th weekend.

 

Here's some perpsective. SPider-man No Way Home which had a $56m 3rd weekend, which A2 is about to beat. Went on to make $190m after the holidays

 

Edited December 31, 2022 by IronJimbo

[Gavin Feng]

32 minutes ago, THUNDER BIRD said:

Well James Cameron did say to wait till 3rd weekend.

 

Jim Cameron:

 

 

[stuart360]

21 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

 

Yeah Rogue One does really poorly after the holidays, it makes $93m after the four day weekend coming up.

For example it goes from a New Years Weekend of $49m to 4th weekend $22m then 5th weekeend $13m then $7m 6th weekend.

 

Here's some perpsective. SPider-man No Way Home which had a $56m 3rd weekend, which A2 is about to beat. Went on to make $190m after the holidays

 

Its crazy really as you would expect legs for AVATAR to be better than a comic book movie that had a massive first couple of weeks.

A2 getting a 10mil better 3rd weekend than NWH, and you have to think 650mil is the floor, if not 700+mil.

[aabattery]

Happy new year folks! 

 

May Avatar keep making lotsa money. 

[IronJimbo]

Just now, aabattery said:

Happy new year folks! 

 

May Avatar keep making lotsa money. 

ohh noo zillander with the new year, happy new year fella

[Elessar]

7 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

Here's some perpsective. SPider-man No Way Home which had a $56m 3rd weekend, which A2 is about to beat. Went on to make $190m after the holidays

 

 

I noticed that movies on the whole dropped much harder on post holiday weekend in 2017 (R1) than during 2022 (NWH). That would suggest that this weekend (with Jan 1st falling on SUN) is more inflated than during other years. Just something to keep in mind.

 

Nonetheless, NWH did very well if not incredibly well post holidays but who's to say Avatar 2 will do the same or better even? Time will tell.  

[Elessar]

13 minutes ago, stuart360 said:

Its crazy really as you would expect legs for AVATAR to be better than a comic book movie that had a massive first couple of weeks.

A2 getting a 10mil better 3rd weekend than NWH, and you have to think 650mil is the floor, if not 700+mil.

 

Again, NWH had unusually good holds post holidays. It was more of an outlier for a comic book movie. There's no guarantee A2 will do the same or better. I'm pretty sure it'll do better than R1, though.

Edited December 31, 2022 by Elessar

[IronJimbo]

6 minutes ago, Elessar said:

 

I noticed that movies on the whole dropped much harder on post holiday weekend in 2017 (R1) than during 2022 (NWH). That would suggest that this weekend (with Jan 1st falling on SUN) is more inflated than during other years. Just something to keep in mind.

 

Nonetheless, NWH did very well if not incredibly well post holidays but who's to say Avatar 2 will do the same or better even? Time will tell.  

 

You think New Years Eve weekend is an inflated weekend, I thought the common thought was a regular weekend would gross more.

[stuart360]

10 minutes ago, Elessar said:

 

Again, NWH had unusually good holds post holidays. It was more of an outlier for a comic book movie. There's no guarantee A2 will do the same or better. I'm pretty sure it'll do better than R1, though.

A2 should be around 500-510mil after next weekend. R1 is toast, 600mil is toast.

[Elessar]

11 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

 

You think New Years Eve weekend is an inflated weekend, I thought the common thought was a regular weekend would gross more.

 

I'm pretty sure it's better than a regular weekend due to most people having off on FRI (acts like a SAT) and MON (which inflates SUN evening).

 

But in any case it seems to be better than when Jan 1st falls on SAT, like what was the case during NWH's run. There must be a reason why movies fell much less in the beginning of 2022. Or maybe all movies in the top 10 had just better legs? I dunno.

Edited December 31, 2022 by Elessar

[CJohn]

Kill James, kill. Smash the haters.

 

Now it is really only a matter of having strong legs in January. I am expecting bad work weekdays because of the runtime but a recovery on weekends. It should have a strong MLK weekend.

[Dale Cooper]

17 minutes ago, Elessar said:

 

I'm pretty sure it's better than a regular weekend due to most people having off on FRI (acts like a SAT) and MON (which inflates SUN evening).

 

But in any case it seems to be better than when Jan 1st falls on SAT, like what was the case during NWH's run. There must be a reason why movies fell much less in the beginning of 2022. Or maybe all movies in the top 10 had just better legs? I dunno.

It's definitely better than when the 1st is on the Saturday. But I'd still say it's not inflated for being a holiday weekend. The calender configuration that Avatar had (Friday being the 1st) would make the weekend inflated.

 

As for comparing it with No Way Home - it will obviously not be able to post the same holds past January, that's for sure. But it very much can have better holds the first couple of weekends after this, to make up for the comparatively worser holds later on.

Edited December 31, 2022 by Dale Cooper

[JustLurking]

Charlie just tweeted 24 so I assume it's coming on the high end of that range. Excellent.

[IronJimbo]

1 minute ago, Elessar said:

 

I'm pretty sure it's better than a regular weekend due to most people having off on FRI (acts like a SAT) and MON (which inflates SUN evening).

 

But in any case it seems to be better than when Jan 1st falls on SAT, like what was the case during NWH's run. There must be a reason why movies fell much less in the beginning of 2022. Or maybe all movie in the top 10 had just better legs? I dunno.

 

TGM 3rd Weekend: $52m

TGM Post 3rd Weekend Gross: $323m

 

NWH 3rd Weekend: $56m

NWH Post 3rd Weekend Gross: $191m

 

Avatar 3rd Weekend: $68m

Avatar Post 3rd Weekend Gross: $397m

 

R1 3rd Weekend: $50m

R1 Post 3rd Weekend Gross: $109m

 

Avatar 3rd WE gained ~8m with New Years On Friday

Rogue 3rd WE One lost ~5-10m with New Years Eve on Sat

[Mr Roark]

So $65M 3 day weekend, excellent.

[Elessar]

10 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

 

TGM 3rd Weekend: $52m

TGM Post 3rd Weekend Gross: $323m

 

NWH 3rd Weekend: $56m

NWH Post 3rd Weekend Gross: $191m

 

Avatar 3rd Weekend: $68m

Avatar Post 3rd Weekend Gross: $397m

 

R1 3rd Weekend: $50m

R1 Post 3rd Weekend Gross: $109m

 

Avatar 3rd WE gained ~8m with New Years On Friday

Rogue 3rd WE One lost ~5-10m with New Years Eve on Sat

 

What are you trying to say here?