M3GAN W33K3ND THR3AD | ACTUALS - DADDY CAM3RON'S MAGNUM OPUS 45.8M | DOCUM3NTARY ABOUT KILL3R DOLL 30.4M | ORANG3 PANTH3R 13.5M

[IronJimbo]

1 minute ago, Torontofan said:

Even if avatar 3 does less elsewhere china gross will make up for it.

Again to go DOOMER mode, who says China ever recovers

[LinksterAC]

2 minutes ago, M37 said:

We don't "know", but there is now 18+ months of data showing weakness in the market, and not really much evidence of it snapping back over the last year

 

I think the most accurate assessment is that the bar for being willing to spend on theatrical has been raised by the behavior shift, and at a top level, can still mostly meet pre-pandemic levels .... with like 25% higher ATP so 25% less audience, but similar $ value

 

But below that top line, particularly for animation, drama/awards & even generic action, they are nowhere near the level of pre-pandemic. There's too much similar content available to make it worth the investment of time and money

I think that there is *some* evidence of it snapping back: namely, when a must-see movie hits, people still go out at pre-pandemic rates (NWH, TGM). (Again, with the exception of China). And A2 qualifies as one of those films.

 

For me, that makes it hard to argue that A2 is functioning with this particular handicap. Though the other types of films you mentioned may be. I haven’t really looked into them.

[kayumanggi]

 

[Issac Newton]

 

 

 

[kayumanggi]

 

[kayumanggi]

 

[Krissykins]

4 minutes ago, XXR the Conqueror said:

Moderation 

 

No more fanboy nonsense. Avatar, Avatar 2 and Endgame are all great runs and should be appreciated as such. We aren't going to start devolving threads into pointless pissing contests. 

 

Everyone needs to cheer up, it’s M3GAN’s weekend. 
 

 

These are such depressing numbers for an excellent film. 

[YM!]

6 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

Hopefully PIB can still surpass 300M despite the ridiculous 14-day theatrical window. 

 

It seems good for 130-140M DOM so far, amazing after that tepid OW.

It should. I’m thinking higher, to 150m maybe 160m as of how barren these months are until Mario. (Ant-Man weekend is a holiday one and I suspect Shazam is underperforming).

 

I feel confident in animation making a rebound this year, primarily because the products are more appealing. Mario is probably locked for 200M and Across has a very strong chance, Trolls: Band Together seems likely to reap the good fortunes of Puss 2 and Sing 2, might even strongarm its way to 200m due to how popular that franchise is, Migration should thrive too as Comcast knows how to sell animation and with Wish being the 100th anniversary film and only holiday tentpole for Disney, it should at least do 150M. Elemental is a big question mark as I don’t believe counterprogramming for family films can happen any more apart from certain calendar configuration and I suspect Flash will be bigger than we expect. Ninja Turtles seems like a 70-90m grosser which depending on budget is okay.

 

Either way, the slate seems more appealing than last year.

[LinksterAC]

2 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

Again to go DOOMER mode, who says China ever recovers

China is slowly coming out of its COVID trance, & that should help the BO.

 

But there are a lot of demographic & economic headwinds independent of that which may have a pretty depressive effect on the BO going forward.

 

I’ll be watching it with interest.

[Black Hawk]

OMG KIRI STOP!!!

 

 

 

 

[ThomasNicole]

4 minutes ago, stuart360 said:

I wonder if the 14day window was already in place before release, or they paniced after the OW.

I suppose it was planned, because Universal knows they can get that big PVOD money without really losing any money on domestic box office. 

 

The problem imo is the foreign markets, they forget or they don't care about how a lot of markets are very pro-piracy and a 4K copy of the movie online can hurt it's WW grosses. 

 

Maybe the PVOD is good enough so it's still a better deal for them, but it's definitely frustrating. 

 

6 minutes ago, LinksterAC said:

One thing to remember is that 2009 was almost ideal for A1. Peak globalization in terms of the general economy, slow economy (thus, increased moviegoing), & absolutely killer FOREX in dollar terms. (The Forex thing totally bothers me when comparing WW runs for films, because it really can give a film a 20% boost over another for no reason other than an accounting decisions).

 

All that said, A2 is having a phenomenal, leggy run & because of that, I’m not convinced A3 & A4 will perform worse. In many ways, the public is reacquainting with this franchise after a 13 year absence, & I think that could lower the ceiling on this run. But it’s being very well received & will act as recent advertising for A3 in a couple years. Do you remember what happened with the LOTR movies?

Out of likes, but i can see this as well. The 2nd movie is more than well received enough to make people interested in keep watching them, we just don't know how this will translate into box office. 

 

I believe the grosses for all of them will be similar indeed, if similar but keeps growing like LOTR or similar but always with slightly drops like Hobbit we have to wait and see. 

 

A5 can be the outlier tho and explode, depending on the buildup.

[stuart360]

5 minutes ago, wildphantom said:

I wouldn’t say you took that much shit. The vast majority of the forum were very supportive of you and Jimbo, even if we were sceptical and were just waiting to see how it played out.
 

Delighted it’s all worked out for you and the film has turned into the phenomenon you’d hoped it would. 

Well if thats was being supportive then i'd hate to see the reaction if i make a prediction that people REALLY dont agree with!.

 

But yes, thankyou for that sentiment. My prediction was based on a full China gross, so it may still not get there but thankfully it still became a juggernaut like some of us believed from the start.

[SchumacherFTW]

5 minutes ago, kayumanggi said:

 

This fuckin country. 

[M37]

1 minute ago, LinksterAC said:

I think that there is *some* evidence of it snapping back: namely, when a must-see movie hits, people still go out at pre-pandemic rates (NWH, TGM).

Again, domestically at least (I don't really follow WW #s), they don't, only that reduced audience pool is being masked by the large increase in ticket prices, making grosses from pre- and post-pandemic periods mostly comparable.  But in terms of admissions, still way down from pre-pandemic levels

 

Fwiw, I'm not arguing for any specific film performance to be perceived better or worse (I'm not invested either way), and frankly it is a testament to the perceived quality of Avatwo that people are willing to spend 3+ hours and PLF/3D pricing on top of the higher ATP to go see it. One of the reasons I was lower on it was that I thought it was gong to be too much of an uphill battle to clear that ROI bar, but the masses have spoken with their feet and wallets

[Tokugennumataka]

So...The two leggiest 100M openers ever were released within 7 months of each other. 

[Dragoncaine]

Forgot to mention that I caught Puss in Boots this weekend and it deserves every penny it makes. I do prefer Marcel the Shell and GDT's Pinocchio as overall films by just a bit, but no film in 2022 better utilizes the medium of animation than PiB. Funny, visually resplendent, thematically rich, strong characters, pretty good pacing, and a great villain who *checks notes* gave me goosebumps??

[kayumanggi]

 

[Moviedweeb]

20 minutes ago, stuart360 said:

Its just had a 132mil none holiday international weekend, i'd say at least 400mil left in the international tank, if not 500mil.

Domestic i'd say 150-250mil.

 

Outstanding 

[Krissykins]

2 minutes ago, SchumacherFTW said:

This fuckin country. 

We sure do love films that look like they were created for a 1pm timeslot on a Thursday afternoon on channel 5 😂

[dignam]

5 minutes ago, Black Hawk said:

OMG KIRI STOP!!!

 

 

 

 

Lol fu*****g EPIC those gifs. Thx mate.