The Wild Eric Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 https://deadline.com/2023/01/box-office-plane-gerard-butler-the-avatar-way-of-water-m3gan-1235221135/ Quote Here’s the thing, technically, Otto is the richer: If you count the Marc Forster directed title’s Thursday cash of $420K from 637 theaters, the pic made $1.06M yesterday. However, Sony will count the preview night cash from 2,493 theaters (which had showtimes start at 2PM yesterday) toward Otto’s Friday. Otto expands to 3,800 locations. Pic’s running total sans previews through two weeks is $6.2M. Neither Otto nor Plane looks to rule over the 4-day MLK weekend with respective projections of $8M and $7M-$10M as Disney/20th/Lightstorm’s Avatar: The Way of Water looks to lead with $35M.. Plane had two sets of previews on Wednesday and Thursday which started at 7PM. The Butler pic is booked at 3,023 theaters. Avatar 2 finished its fourth week with close to $60M at 4,340 theaters and a running total of $531.7M. Avatar 2 led all movies yesterday with $2.92M, -8% from Wednesday. Universal/Blumhouse/Atomic Monster’s M3GAN ends week one at 3,509 locations with $38.5M after a $1.67M Thursday, -6% from Wednesday. The pic is roughly $400K shy of Scream‘s first week take of $38.9M last year. Universal/DreamWorks Animation’s Puss in Boots: The Last Wish at 3,919 did $1.08M on Thursday, -5% from Wednesday, a third week of $18.3M and running cume of $92.9M. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Elessar Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 1 hour ago, Eric the Plane said: Is people saying mean things about a kids movie focusing on blue aliens really that terrible? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cooper Legion Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 (edited) 2,92 in the deadline article. 1.08 for puss. Keyser might be super close with actuals. Edited January 13, 2023 by Legion in Boots Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeQ Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 38 minutes ago, M37 said: Outside of December, hitting 2.2x (or even 2.1x) is considered really good legs for a top level opening (Shang-Chi was 2.13x, for example). But for December debuts, both the holiday boost and the fact that people don't rush out as quickly knowing they have a 3-week window helps to inflate OW/OWeek ratios so much more than the rest of the year (especially true for the Wed before Xmas openings). First of all, @M37, I'm so grateful for all of your analyses - forever and always. Thank you. This point is well taken, but this doesn't exactly reference the original argument being made: which is that The Way of Water's legs (a 5x multiplier, if it manages to hit that milestone - still very much uncertain) is normal for a December opener. It's clear that December openers have leggier runs, on average, due to the holidays - and so direct comparisons to other times of year is problematic. (Though I appreciate that this was worth mentioning - since we do get new folks stopping by who aren't as cognizant of this.) Same can be said of comparing summer films to other times of year (minus December holidays) since these films benefit from boosted summer weekdays. If a 5x multiplier for Friday openers was normal in December, regardless of gross, then we would see this happening at a higher rate than we do now, IMO. I suppose it depends on what our definition of "normal" is. We could make an argument that 5x is not as exceptional for a December opener - in general - and I think that would be a fair point. I think probably a 6x multiplier is a better milestone to look to, since only 5 films opening to $20+ million (Friday openers) have achieved this milestone. And yet, this conversation about multipliers still requires more nuance. Other factors that influence legs and must be considered are: the genre of the film; the size of the opening weekend; the year of release (films have gotten progressively less leggy, on average, particularly with the addition of midnights, then previews, and now previews that start earlier and earlier such that we have effectively a 4-day opening weekend); the novelty factor (is the film a traditional offering within an existing genre, is it part of a known IP, a sequel, etc); and more (including the obvious: WOM). Family animated films, for example, are significantly over-represented among the best multipliers of all-time for $70+ million Friday openers. The first time I shared my list of multipliers for these films, I provided an analysis that took into account the various factors that influence legs, but haven't continued to do that each time I've shared the list - assuming these nuances are self-evident to us box office nerds - but perhaps it is worth reminding us all. In sum, if Way of Water does have strong late legs and manages to hit 5x, I think this is an exceptionally strong run - given the opening, the genre, etc. Lower opening and family/animated films are more apt to achieve long legs, including in December. The fact that most folks were not expecting a 5x multiplier after it opened (the conversation circled around the fact that it was following Rogue One legs closely), suggests to me that its strength into its third and fourth weekends were unexpected - in other words, not considered normal. (Supporting this is that the majority of entrants into the weekend prediction contests for the third and fourth weekends underestimated each weekend gross.) If other blockbusters at the level of Way of Water hit the 5+ multiplier over the coming decade, I'm genuinely open to changing my mind - because it's certainly true that we don't have a large sample of films to look to at this level. AND, we still have a lot of run to go - if Way of Water falls off a cliff this weekend and onwards, then we have new information to parse. When we discuss these kinds of factors as a community, we're getting into the areas of box office analysis that aren't black and white. We should remain respectful and collegial - rigid and insulting posts aren't as persuasive, anyway. Peace, Mike 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cooper Legion Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 (edited) To be clear @MikeQ, what I’ve said is that it’s within the normal range, but in the good-great portion thereof. Not that they are completely normal I.e. the middle of the expected range. Edited January 13, 2023 by Legion in Boots 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jiffy Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 16 minutes ago, Legion in Boots said: 2,92 in the deadline article. 1.08 for puss. Keyser might be super close with actuals. Aw wanted $3m at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alexdube Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 1 hour ago, Legion in Boots said: You can take the silence as I’m doing other things right now. quick look: Incredibles 2 clearly would have been over 100 and I think ~4.5-5 range, overall I’d expect more impressive legs given the opening if dates were equal The dark Knight clearly over 100 and probably 4.5-5x legs, same overall opinions Black Panther same as above 2 Finding Dory comfortably over 100 and over 5x imo TS4 over 5x imo, ow equivalent is like 140 in June so probably clears 100 in December but not totally confident? TS3 easy both Shrek 2 very easily both The jungle book over 5x, 100 unclear Wonder Woman would have been over 5x with this date, 100 seems tough HP1 over 100 easily, 5x ish, overall more impressive with same date Passion of the Christ easily both Avatar 1 the most impressive obv Incredibles 1 probably 5x ballpark, easily over 100 Finding Nemo easily both Bruce Almighty looks big enough OW, 5x maybe TPM easily both Monsters inc easily both Signs probably ~5x, OW looks maybe TS2 easily how the grinch stole Christmas easily over 5x, 100 probably Batman forever OW easily, 5x maybe JP1 easily both Meet the fockers easily both Might have a couple midweek open false negatives there, tried to double check and remove ones that looked suspicious That's a long list but quantity doesn't equate quality Lots of older movies, lots of movies that don't even clear 4x, Lots of animated movies of course Any actual December releases? Batman Forever? dude... I am not impressed 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Firepower Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 Ugly drops, just ugly. It needs a miracle this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marveldcfox Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 Overall, an epicly disappointing week. Let's see what the weekend brings. Matching TGM domestically is going to be a tall task let alone avatar 1 domestically. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Borobudur Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 After a whole meh week, A2 lose more than $10m of lead over TGM. Now the running total is about $40m ahead of TGM. If A2 can't cover this lose over the long weekend, I would say passing TGM is basically dead given that TGM had insane hold after this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alex SciChannel Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 Just came out of Puss and Boots for the 5th time. Expect my $8 matinee to contribute to today's box office. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jiffy Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 1 hour ago, marveldcfox said: Overall, an epicly disappointing week. Let's see what the weekend brings. Matching TGM domestically is going to be a tall task let alone avatar 1 domestically. I don't think A1 was ever realistically on the table after its opening. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaFlexi Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 14 minutes ago, Jiffy said: I don't think A1 was ever realistically on the table after its opening. It's original run very much was and still kind of is. 35mil plus 3 day and 45mil plus 4 day and i can see it happen in the absolute best case scenario. Still sticking to my 675-725 prediction though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
titanic2187 Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 19 minutes ago, Alex SciChannel said: Just came out of Puss and Boots for the 5th time. Expect my $8 matinee to contribute to today's box office. Very impressive to see PIB2 is now double of what Sing 2 made on the same Thursday last night after failed to even reach half of Sing 2's OD. The box office run of PIB2 so far behave more like a movie with A+ cinemascore instead of Sing2. I hope the Oscar nomination on 24 Jan can bring new families into cinema since this is basically the only animated nominee that play wide in the theater. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alex SciChannel Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 (edited) 8 minutes ago, titanic2187 said: Very impressive to see PIB2 is now double of what Sing 2 made on the same Thursday last night after failed to even reach half of Sing 2's OD. The box office run of PIB2 so far behave more like a movie with A+ cinemascore instead of Sing2. I hope the Oscar nomination on 24 Jan can bring new families into cinema since this is basically the only animated nominee that play wide in the theater. I think it's because Sing 2 is a very shallow film that easily pleases young kids so the cinemascore is an easy A+. A babysitter movie if you wil, aka something you turn on to not have to deal with a kid for an hour and a half. PiB has actual artistry and some pretty scary moments for younger kids. Something I bet Karen moms weren't fans of when rating it likely. But it's doing so well I think because it's starting to reach toward a wider demographic. Like tweens and young teens. For example, my theater was basically empty because it was a matinee. That was except 3 teen aged kids. And they actually payed attention to the movie. They didn't just buy a ticket to have sex in an empty theater. Edited January 13, 2023 by Alex SciChannel 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flip Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 56 minutes ago, Jiffy said: I don't think A1 was ever realistically on the table after its opening. you cant determine legs just off an opening, A1 was only off the table after the realization that the weekdays wouldn't be close to as strong as the original Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jiffy Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 Getting $650m Dom / $2B WW is great. Anything extra is gravy, although toppling TGM in the US would have been nice. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kayumanggi Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 No one's posting the numbers? 😅 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kayumanggi Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 (edited) Edited January 13, 2023 by kayumanggi 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kayumanggi Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...