Weekend Thread | Estimates: Avatar 19.7, Puss 11.5, M3GAN 9.8, Missing 9.3, Otto 9

[Borobudur]

2 minutes ago, MrFanaticGuy34 said:

Any blockbuster that makes over $600M+ DOM is always considered a good win and never a box office failure or box office disappointment. 💁🏻‍♀️😉🥳💰💸🤑

TLJ, or TLK. 

[Brainbug]

7 minutes ago, Borobudur said:

TLJ, or TLK. 

 

Lion King 2019 grossed 543M though. Also, while id say that many expected its DOM gross to be easily 600M+, the worldwide numbers were really great for it, so that balanced it out kinda.

 

The Last Jedi actually fits more as a "disappointment" if one wants to argue that there is even a thing like a 600M+ grosser-disappointment. But yeah, the fall from TFA, its stinky legs and also the worldwide gross were less than what many anticipated even after it had opened.

[Alex SciChannel]

Why haven't The-numbers updated the domestic totals of their films past Thursday? Is there something wrong with the site?

 

 

[hw64]

16 minutes ago, MrFanaticGuy34 said:

Any blockbuster that makes over $600M+ DOM is always considered a good win and never a box office failure or box office disappointment. 💁🏻‍♀️😉🥳💰💸🤑

 

What if Endgame made $600m dom off the back of Infinity War's $670m?

 

Even The Last Jedi's $620m was considered pretty disappointing off the back of The Force Awakens's $936m.

 

It's the old fallacy of "removing all context from a box office run to make it look better than it is". Expectations and context matter — an extremely financially successful movie which is one of the highest-grossing movies of all time can still nevertheless be a disappointment if it fails to meet reasonable pre-release expectations of its performance.

Edited January 21, 2023 by hw64

[Mr Roark]

18 minutes ago, Xavier said:

hunch or hope?

Everybody knows the answer to this question.

 

TWOW needs a $21.725M weekend to hit $600M by SUN.

 

If it performs exactly like the previous weekend it will end up making $21.683M.

[CaptNathanBrittles]

36 minutes ago, kayumanggi said:

MOST WEEKENDS AT NUMBER 1

 

rank / number of weekends at number 1 / movie

 

01 / 16 / E.T. THE EXTRA TERRESTRIAL (1982)

02 / 15 / TITANIC (1997)

03 / 14 / BEVERLY HILLS COP (1984)

04 / 14 / TOOTSIE (1982)

05 / 12 / HOME ALONE (1990)

06 / 11 / BACK TO THE FUTURE (1985)

07 / 10 / GHOSTBUSTERS (1984)

08 / 09 / CROCODILE DUNDEE (1986)

09 / 09 / GOOD MORNING, VIETNAM (1987)

10 / 08 / FATAL ATTRACTION (1987)

11 / 08 / PORKY'S (1982)

12 / 07 / AVATAR (2009)

13 / 07 / ON GOLDEN POND (1981)

14 / 06 / SPIDER-MAN: NO WAY HOME (2021)

15 / 06 / AVATAR: THE WAY OF WATER (2022)

16 / 06 / SW: RETURN OF THE JEDI (1983)

17 / 06 / THE FUGITIVE (1993)

18 / 06 / RAIN MAN (1988)

19 / 06 / ROCKY IV (1985)

20 / 06 / TERMS OF ENDEARMENT (1983)

 

*three James Cameron films

*only three movies from year 2000 onwards

 

STAR WARS should be on that list: https://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Star-Wars-Ep-IV-A-New-Hope#tab=box-office

 

EMPIRE STRIKES BACK 14 weeks at #1 (including 2 for special edition): https://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Star-Wars-Ep-V-The-Empire-Strikes-Back#tab=box-office

 

RAIDERS OF THE LOST ARK also had 8 weekends at #1: https://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Raiders-of-the-Lost-Ark#tab=box-office

 

[Brainbug]

7 minutes ago, Mr Roark said:

Everybody knows the answer to this question.

 

TWOW needs a $21.725M weekend to hit $600M by SUN.

 

If it performs exactly like the previous weekend it will end up making $21.683M.

 

Memes aside, i think Avatar 2's main target right now should be Infinity War. 700M aka Black Panther looks tough, but not totally impossible, if the loss of the PLF's hits it less hard than for example i think.

Edited January 21, 2023 by Brainbug

[M37]

57 minutes ago, Eric is Missing said:

So like...is there a reason why Missing is doing on par with Searching here like this? Because I know this isn't really a Searching sequel per se, but that film didn't really have much staying power or longevity after its release.

To be fair, it’s not quite? Difficult to be precise because of platform release, but a $26M total would have probably been around ~$11M OW had it gone wide in September, and keep in mind it maxed out at 2K theaters (because they weren’t as starved for content), so that total probably underscores potential demand, some of which was later picked up with home viewing 

I think getting to $20M here is still a decent win though, an equal or smaller drop-off than say Plane from Geostorm 

 

[Legion Again]

I am thinking near 10M open sends missing to 30+ total which is a pretty small fall in tickets. Very nice.

[Legion Again]

56 minutes ago, YM! said:

Projectionists, what total is Puss looking at? Considering it’s likely to do 11-12M this weekend.

I’ve got more 12-13 this wknd for 190-200ish but with the leggy ones like this it’s hard to pin down until late.

Edited January 21, 2023 by Favorite Fearless Legion

[Krissykins]

Knock at the Cabin could’ve moved forward a week to the 27th. 
 

Is the only opener next weekend Infinity Pool? 

[Eric Lasagna]

1 minute ago, Krissykins said:

Knock at the Cabin could’ve moved forward a week to the 27th. 
 

Is the only opener next weekend Infinity Pool? 

There's something else called Fear. It has a Vine star I recognize (lol remember Vine), I got the trailer for it in front of Violent Night, and it looks really, really bad.

 

 

[DAJK]

BOM has Missing's domestic total at 4.2M. I assume that extra 800k is from Early Access screenings/Regal Mystery Movie? Or is it an error on BOM's part?

 

If that 800k is counted towards the weekend's gross, it could come close to double-digits.

[kayumanggi]

11 minutes ago, CaptNathanBrittles said:

 

STAR WARS should be on that list: https://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Star-Wars-Ep-IV-A-New-Hope#tab=box-office

 

EMPIRE STRIKES BACK 14 weeks at #1 (including 2 for special edition): https://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Star-Wars-Ep-V-The-Empire-Strikes-Back#tab=box-office

 

RAIDERS OF THE LOST ARK also had 8 weekends at #1: https://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Raiders-of-the-Lost-Ark#tab=box-office

 

 

I think the list is for consecutive ones.

[Boxofficerules]

Any Man’s weekend page will probably be longer than this 10 minutes into being posted.

[Krissykins]

8 minutes ago, Eric is Missing said:

There's something else called Fear. It has a Vine star I recognize (lol remember Vine), I got the trailer for it in front of Violent Night, and it looks really, really bad.

 

 

Ah it does look dire. I knew it was on the schedule as wide at one point but thought Lionsgste had just given up lol

[M37]

32 minutes ago, Alex SciChannel said:

Really? Why? I don't see a reason to assume that

Its a fairly consistent pattern across the years (I wouldn't have assumed so either tbh, until I started looking at it). Some years with a later MLK Day (like 2019 & 20) overstate the bigger Sat jump, as that was the week of the NFL Conf Champ games, so the viewership dampening the previous Saturday all gets shifted into that Sunday instead

 

The Friday delta is more pronounced, but everything should have a slightly better Sat increase this week than last

 

[DAJK]

12 minutes ago, Boxofficerules said:

Any Man’s weekend page will probably be longer than this 10 minutes into being posted.

The Marvel/DC flame wars + threadban announcements will be longer than this weekend thread  

[Legion Again]

Dec 23 Puss 19.6% A2

30th 24.9% (+27%)

6th 29.5% (+18%)

13th 44.1% (+49%)

5th est* 61% (+38%)

 

5th wknd % +211% from OW, ~33% avg growth per week still — would lead to crossing the streams in 2 weeks, feb 3rd-5th. Still thinking SB weekend though — next wknd maybe 11/15 for ~71%, then 9/11 (82%) then crossing ~7.5 with SB.

 

*12.5/20.5

[CaptNathanBrittles]

35 minutes ago, kayumanggi said:

 

I think the list is for consecutive ones.

 

It can't be. E.T.'s sixteen number ones weren't consecutive.