Weekend Thread | Estimates: Avatar 19.7, Puss 11.5, M3GAN 9.8, Missing 9.3, Otto 9

[Cheddar Please]

nvm lol

Edited January 22, 2023 by Cheddar Please

[MovieMan89]

Just now, Cheddar Please said:

You do realize that 670m is a 5x multi, not 4.5x. You should make sure your math checks out first before coming to any conclusions about the films projected total

20 x 4.5 = 90. A2 was at 578 before this weekend. Where is my math wrong? 

[Cheddar Please]

Just now, MovieMan89 said:

20 x 4.5 = 90. A2 was at 578 before this weekend. Where is my math wrong? 

misread your message, disregard what I just said

[TwoMisfits]

So, Buffalo apparently can't play defense in the snow.

 

This is problem since they play in Buffalo.

 

14-0 right now.

[M37]

1 hour ago, Brainbug said:

 

Looking at BOM, the Januarys pre-Covid all had roughly between 140 and 180 movies playing in that month; 2021 had 55, 2022 had 66 and 2023 currently has 65 (will probably not be more than 70 in the end). It will take another year at least before there are as many movies playing in theaters as there were before the pandemic.

I think the bigger issue is that in 2022, the 4th highest grossing Jan movie was King's Man at $17.9M followed by The 355 at $13M, and this year 7th place will be BPWF at like $20M followed by something else at around $11M

 

Usually the 5th place film makes about $60M, and 10th like $30M (for the calendar month). Can release all the titles you want, but are we getting that much more middle tier titles, or a flood of now lower tiers like Plane?

 

 

 

[kayumanggi]

AVATAR: TWOW'S overseas weekends

 

$300.5M / 1st weekend

$176.6M / 2nd weekend

$185.5M / 3rd weekend

$136.7M / 4th weekend

$093.2M / 5th weekend

$056.3M / 6th weekend

[kayumanggi]

2 hours ago, thajdikt said:

Can Puss get to 500M worldwide?

 

$400M is a good target.

[DAJK]

6 minutes ago, kayumanggi said:

 

$400M is a good target.

Agreed. Thinking it tops out around 175 DOM, 250 OS. 425 WW, which is great for Dreamworks.

[Grebacio]

Puss could end as Dreamworks' highest grossing movie domestically since Madagascar 3 and 9th in their entire filmography

[kayumanggi]

5 minutes ago, Grebacio said:

Puss could end as Dreamworks' highest grossing movie domestically since Madagascar 3 and 9th in their entire filmography

 

Amazing, right. I hope this boosts Dreamworks' confidence more.

[kayumanggi]

 

[Grebacio]

On 1/21/2023 at 1:35 PM, TwoMisfits said:

 

 

PS - So, when does Puss pass Avatar for weekend gross?  Next weekend or the one after, when a large PLF drop happens?  Or does it never?

It will surpass Avatar when Mario opens since Universal will do double features. Don't know if it's possible to achieve it earlier 

[CJohn]

On 1/21/2023 at 4:35 PM, TwoMisfits said:

So, Puss TLW has a chance to also have this weekend above its OW...would that be a record for a movie that opened wide?

 

PS - So, when does Puss pass Avatar for weekend gross?  Next weekend or the one after, when a large PLF drop happens?  Or does it never?

Probably over the Presidents Day weekend. Puss should be above Avatar starting that weekend.

[The Dark Alfred]

4 hours ago, MovieMan89 said:

And running through it all, I’m more convinced than ever Indy 5 is the most likely candidate to be a “shocking” box office bomb. Competition way too stiff, the young audience doesn’t care, and unless the script is exceptional it’s too little too late for the audience that should care imo.

 

I agree, out of the summer films Indy is riding on its WoM the most. If it gathers decent reaction, people will check it out, because it's still a big brand, but the 4th did a lot of damage. It cam bomb badly, especially facing serious competition.

[M37]

On 1/21/2023 at 11:35 AM, TwoMisfits said:

PS - So, when does Puss pass Avatar for weekend gross?  Next weekend or the one after, when a large PLF drop happens?  Or does it never?

Not next weekend, the 2/03 should be a pretty close race between the two, and on 2/10 PiB should be ahead 

[wildphantom]

5 hours ago, MovieMan89 said:

And running through it all, I’m more convinced than ever Indy 5 is the most likely candidate to be a “shocking” box office bomb. Competition way too stiff, the young audience doesn’t care, and unless the script is exceptional it’s too little too late for the audience that should care imo.

The young audience that this time last year didn’t care about Maverick. 
 

like you said earlier, Indy has got to be good.  I see no reason why it won’t be. It’ll do really well I’m sure.  $300 million plus I’m hoping for. 
 

Totally agree on your projection for Mario going huge. It’ll shock everyone. 

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

Despite the reviews he received and Pinocchio bombing on Disney+, 2022 proved a solid year for Tom Hanks and his theatrical cred. Elvis went over 150m and Otto will do over 50m (not incredible of course but solid for pandemic and could pass/match the 61m that Beautiful Day made in 2019).

 

M3GAN will probably end up as the 3rd biggest original Blumhouse horror worldwide behind Split (278.7m) and Get Out (252.2m WW). It is currently at 124.6m behind Black Phone which isn't original anyway (161.4m), Invisible Man (139m) again which isn't non-IP and Happy Death Day (125m). Huge success.

[DAJK]

52 minutes ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

Despite the reviews he received and Pinocchio bombing on Disney+, 2022 proved a solid year for Tom Hanks and his theatrical cred. Elvis went over 150m and Otto will do over 50m (not incredible of course but solid for pandemic and could pass/match the 61m that Beautiful Day made in 2019).

 

M3GAN will probably end up as the 3rd biggest original Blumhouse horror worldwide behind Split (278.7m) and Get Out (252.2m WW). It is currently at 124.6m behind Black Phone which isn't original anyway (161.4m), Invisible Man (139m) again which isn't non-IP and Happy Death Day (125m). Huge success.

Man, when you think about it, Split was just a massive success all around. An "original" (yes, yes I know it's technically not an original... but nobody knew that going in, and I doubt the Unbreakable connections did all that much for its box office, just look at Glass) kidnapping thriller whose central hook was the bonkers performance of its lead star, who while very well-known, is not a "butts in seats draw" like Pitt or Dicaprio. And it didn't just do well domestically. This was a horror/thriller that nearly made 300 million WORLDWIDE in freaking January. And to be followed up only a month later by Get Out... wow.

[ThomasNicole]

8 hours ago, CJohn said:

I think the potential is there but it needs good reviews.

Screenings on US has been good (according to Shyamalan himself so take it with a grain of salt) 

 

 

 

[kayumanggi]

17 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

Screenings on US has been good (according to Shyamalan himself so take it with a grain of salt) 

 

 

 

 

Yay! I hope 2023's successes continue with this one.