February 3rd to 5th, 2023 Weekend Thread | Estimates: Cabin 14.2, Brady 12.5, Avatar 10.8, Puss 7.95, BTS 6.3

[filmlover]

9 minutes ago, John Marston said:

 

child was the main character of The Black Phone and the villain was a child predator 

To be fair, that kid wasn't nearly as young as the one at the center of Knock at the Cabin's moral dilemma.

 

(not to mention the obvious added level of social commentary given that this movie's central couple caught in the midst of said dilemma is a gay one)

[Krissykins]

Oh the tracking made me expect a lot more for both. Those look like disappointing numbers. 
 

Was expecting $2m+ for both. I was sure Knock at the Cabin would go over $20m. 

[Verrows]

7 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

Oh the tracking made me expect a lot more for both. Those look like disappointing numbers. 
 

Was expecting $2m+ for both. I was sure Knock at the Cabin would go over $20m. 

Me too. It's looking like, as much of an improvement over last year this February is, at the end of the day were only going to see one OW over $20M this month. Still a long way to go I guess.

Edited February 3, 2023 by Verrows

[Flopped]

I'm (pleasantly) shocked Brady isn't doing like 4M which is what I expected. That high audience score means it probably tested well and Marketing really got behind it. 

[ChipDerby]

If Brady hits $10+ mil, I'd say that's a HUGE win considering most a few weeks ago expected $5 mil or less for it.

[Eric is Anxious]

30 minutes ago, Flopped said:

I'm (pleasantly) shocked Brady isn't doing like 4M which is what I expected. That high audience score means it probably tested well and Marketing really got behind it. 

They played a commercial for this in front of every episode of Jeopardy the past two weeks. Last time I saw something this aggressive was The Woman King.

[Blankments]

@Eric Crowe @WrathOfHan THE FIRST TRAILER REPORT OF ONLY 2023 MOVIES:

 

18x:

 

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania: The Conjuring 2 Round 2, Wrath of Man, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever Dolby Atmos Round 0, The Menu, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever Dolby, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery Round 2, Strange World, Bones and All, Violent Night, Avatar: The Way of Water Dolby HFR48fps3D, The Inspection, Avatar: The Way of Water Round 2 Dolby HFR48fps3D, Avatar: The Way of Water Round 3 IMAX 3D, M3GAN, Skinamarink, Avatar: The Way of Water Dolby HFR48fps3D Round 4, The Whale

 

11x:

 

Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves: Top Gun: Maverick Round 3 IMAX, Orphan: First Kill, Spider-Man: No Way Home Round 3 Dolby, Confess, Fletch, Avatar Round 2 Dolby, Avatar Round 3 3D, Black Adam Dolby, Smile, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever Dolby Atmos Round 0, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever Dolby, Strange World

 

10x:

 

Oppenheimer: Nope Dolby, The Black Phone, Nope Round 2 IMAX, Bullet Train Dolby, Jaws Round 2 IMAX, Avatar Round 4 IMAX 3D, Avatar: The Way of Water Round 2 Dolby HFR48fps3D, The Pale Blue Eye, Avatar: The Way of Water Round 3 IMAX 3D, Avatar: The Way of Water Dolby HFR48fps3D Round 4

Knock at the Cabin: Don’t Worry Darling Dolby, Halloween Kills, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, The Fabelmans, Ticket to Paradise, The Fabelmans Round 2, The Night Owl, M3GAN, Skinamarink, The Whale

 

8x:

 

The Super Mario Bros. Movie: Black Adam Dolby, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever Dolby Atmos Round 0, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever Dolby, Strange World, Avatar: The Way of Water Dolby HFR48fps3D, Avatar: The Way of Water Round 2 Dolby HFR48fps3D, Puss in Boots: The Last Wish, Avatar: The Way of Water Dolby HFR48fps3D Round 4

Shazam! Fury of the Gods: DC League of Super-Pets, Don’t Worry Darling Dolby, Black Adam Dolby, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever Dolby, Avatar: The Way of Water Round 2 Dolby HFR48fps3D, Avatar: The Way of Water Round 3 IMAX 3D, Puss in Boots: The Last Wish, Avatar: The Way of Water Dolby HFR48fps3D Round 4

Creed III: Black Adam Dolby, Till, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery Round 2, Bones and All, Avatar: The Way of Water Dolby HFR48fps3D, Avatar: The Way of Water Round 3 IMAX 3Dl, Avatar: The Way of Water Dolby HFR48fps3D Round 4, Women Talking

 

7x:

 

The Little Mermaid: Avatar Round 2 Dolby HFR48fps3D, Avatar Round 3 3D, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever Dolby, Strange World, Avatar: The Way of Water Round 2 Dolby HFR48fps3D, Avatar: The Way of Water Round 3 IMAX 3D, Avatar: The Way of Water Dolby HFR48fps3D Round 4

80 for Brady: Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery Round 2, Puss in Boots: The Last Wish, A Man Called Otto, Whitney Houston: I Wanna Dance with Somebody, The Whale, Women Talking

 

6x:

 

M3GAN: Halloween Ends, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery Round 2, Bones and All, Ticket to Paradise, The Night Owl

Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse: Sing 2 Dolby, Belle Round 2, Morbius Dolby, Sonic the Hedgehog 2 Dolby, Avatar: The Way of Water Round 3 IMAX 3D, Puss in Boots: The Last Wish

 

5x:

 

Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One: Top Gun: Maverick Dolby, Jurassic World Dominion IMAX, Top Gun: Maverick Round 2, Elvis Dolby, Avatar: The Way of Water Round 3 IMAX 3D

Plane: Black Adam Dolby, The Banshees of Inisherin, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, The Night Owl, M3GAN

Missing: Violent Night, The Night Owl, M3GAN, A Man Called Otto, Whitney Houston: I Wanna Dance with Somebody

Guardians of the Galaxy Volume 3: The Conjuring 2 Round 2, Wrath of Man, Avatar: The Way of Water Round 2 Dolby HFR48fps3D, Avatar: The Way of Water Round 3 IMAX 3D, Avatar: The Way of Water Dolby HFR48fps3D Round 4, Avatar: The Way of Water Dolby HFR48fps3D Round 4

 

4x:

 

The Jesus Revolution: The Fabelmans, Ticket to Paradise, Puss in Boots: The Last Wish, A Man Called Otto

 

 

3x:

House Party: Black Adam Dolby, Halloween Ends, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever Dolby Atmos Round 0
Elemental: The Fabelmans, Strange World, Avatar: The Way of Water Dolby HFR48fps3D
Transformers: Rise of the Beasts: Avatar: The Way of Water Dolby HFR48fps3D, Avatar: The Way of Water Round 2 Dolby HFR48fps3D, Puss in Boots: The Last Wish
65: Avatar: The Way of Water Dolby HFR48fps3D, Avatar: The Way of Water Round 2 Dolby HFR48fps3D, A Man Called Otto 

2x:

The Marvels: The Conjuring 2 Round 2, Wrath of Man
Fantastic Four: The Conjuring 2 Round 2, Wrath of Man
Adhira: RRR, RRR Round 2
Infinity Pool: Bones and All, Violent Night
Chevalier: The Menu, The Inspection
John Wick: Chapter 4: Black Panther: Wakanda Forever Dolby Atmos Round 0, Avatar: The Way of Water Round 3 IMAX 3D
Emily: The Inspection, Living
Champions: Violent Night, Women Talking
A Good Person: Whitney Houston: I Wanna Dance with Somebody, Women Talking
Of an Age: Skinamarink, Women Talking

1x:

The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes: Lightyear Dolby
MaXXXine: Pearl
Inside: Armageddon Time
Mafia Mamma: Violent Night
Cocaine Bear: Violent Night
Barbie: Avatar: The Way of Water Dolby HFR48fps3D
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny: Avatar: The Way of Water Dolby HFR48fps3D
Skinamarink: The Pale Blue Eye
Alcarras: All the Beauty and the Bloodshed
Book Club: The Next Chapter: Puss in Boots: The Last Wish
Evil Dead Rise: M3GAN
Scream VI: M3GAN
Renfield: M3GAN
Spinning Gold: Whitney Houston: I Wanna Dance with Somebody
Magic Mike’s Last Dance: Whitney Houston: I Wanna Dance with Somebody
Enys Men: Skinamarink
Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon: Skinamarink
Bunker: Skinamarink
The Tunnel of Summer, The Exit of Goodbyes: Skinamarink
R.M.N.: Skinamarink
2022 Oscar Shorts: No Bears
Godland: No Bears
Showing Up: The Whale
Beau is Afraid: The Whale
Marlowe: Living

 

Edited February 3, 2023 by Blankments

[upriser7]

1 hour ago, efialtes76 said:

Friday-$2.5M(+150%)

Saturday-$5M(+100%)

Sunday-$3.2M(-35%)

$10.7M...

Saturday growth will be definitely higher for A2...even when there were NFL games on Saturday, A2 was growing 100% on Saturdays. Last week, there were no NFL games and A2 grew 120% on Saturday. I'd expect similar growth on this Saturday too. At this point, I'd expect something like 

 

Friday - $2.5M (+150%)

Saturday - $5.5M (+120%)

Sunday - $3.75M (-32%)

 

Around $11.75M weekend

[upriser7]

I think there is a decent chance for A2 to be #1 next weekend

[Krissykins]

Off topic, but if anyone has forgotten how big a phenomenon The Greatest Showman was, the album is number 1 again this week here in the UK, its 36th overall week at #1 after releasing more than 5 years ago. 
 

2.6m copies sold. 

[GOGODanca]

Actuals for a2: $1,005,502

 

Any chance A2 gets back some dolby screens next weekend?

Edited February 3, 2023 by GOGODanca

[Hiccup23]

How I think A2 will play out this weekend

 

Friday- $2,512,500 

Saturday- $5,582,200

Sunday- $3,572,600

Weekend- $11,667,300

 

Total- $637,287,700

[stuart360]

2 minutes ago, GOGODanca said:

Actuals for a2: $1,005,502

 

 

Nice one. It means A2 hits 52 days in a row above 1mil.

[stuart360]

Guys remember A2 is losing some screens this weekend, and according to Grace Randolph its also losing a lot of PLF screens to Cabin.

So yeah A2 may drop more than expected this weekend.

[GOGODanca]

2 minutes ago, stuart360 said:

Guys remember A2 is losing some screens this weekend, and according to Grace Randolph its also losing a lot of PLF screens to Cabin.

So yeah A2 may drop more than expected this weekend.

it lost its dolby screens from yesterday 5pm onwards but will keep its imax and other plfs

[Legion Again]

3 minutes ago, stuart360 said:

Guys remember A2 is losing some screens this weekend, and according to Grace Randolph its also losing a lot of PLF screens to Cabin.

So yeah A2 may drop more than expected this weekend.

According to people who actually know what they’re talking about it kept a large majority of its PLFs

[druv10]

4 minutes ago, stuart360 said:

Guys remember A2 is losing some screens this weekend, and according to Grace Randolph its also losing a lot of PLF screens to Cabin.

So yeah A2 may drop more than expected this weekend.

Sunday hold will be better than last week since no NFL Championship games, that may mitigate the drop for the weekend

[Sophie]

So.... Are we thinking that 80 For Brady will beat Knock at the Cabin Door for the weekend? I think it'll have an advantage in the 7-day total, as well. 

[upriser7]

4 minutes ago, stuart360 said:

Guys remember A2 is losing some screens this weekend, and according to Grace Randolph its also losing a lot of PLF screens to Cabin.

So yeah A2 may drop more than expected this weekend.

In terms of screens, A2 is losing around 7% screens when compared to last weekend. In terms of number of shows, it's keeping all the IMAX shows, losing around 20% of PLF shows and 40% of standard 2D shows.  For comparison, A2 lost 4% of IMAX shows, 11% of PLF shows, 20% of standard 2D shows last weekend.

[vafrow]

1 hour ago, upriser7 said:

I think there is a decent chance for A2 to be #1 next weekend

It might be one of the most wide open weekends we've seen. Trying to figure out the order of Magic Mike, Titanic, Avatar, Knock at the Cabin, 80 for Brady and Puss in Boots is going to be a challenge.

 

I don't think you can rule any of them out for first, or any one of them out for last within that group. Magic Mike should win, but, the reports of a low theatre count might be enough to fall into the pack.