Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania — Weekend Thread | 105.5M 3-Day, 120M 4-Day

[Cooper Legion]

7 minutes ago, M37 said:

There is an effect even for OW, as word travels too fast these days, it’s just more difficult to gauge because we don’t have a baseline, have to guesstimate what would/could have happened otherwise via comps. For example, MoM had a weaker Sat increase and then one of (if not the?) worst Sat/Sun drops for a May MCU release 

 

But I’m getting the sense the more causal audience had lower expectations here, so the 50% RT/B CS are having less of an effect on WOM than on the more hyped MoM and Thor. Or are just so starved for action content that below average WOM/reviews isn’t as much of a turn-off

Was kicking around a hypothesis that the 4th recent B level may not have as harsh n effect as say the 1st and 2md because it isn't as surprising ( and was "priced in" more to begin with)

[M37]

Just now, GOGODanca said:

I think if WOM traveled that quickly then TGM would have seen a much bigger Saturday increase on OW, it was lower than even Quantumania % wise

Not quite an apples to apples comp; Memorial Day Fri has a lot of people off work/school, so the Sat increase is naturally muted for all films. Also TGM played old, so that also helps bump weekdays including Friday matinee, and the WOM for TGM was especially strong for PLF, but limited capacity meant demand could not be met and was being rolled forward to subsequent days 

 

Aladdin had only a +23% TFri/Sat increase for MD weekend vs +16% for TGM

[THUNDER BIRD]

Currently MCU fans are going just to see the implications in the future of MCU by this movie.

 

They'll go initial few days even if reception is bad, Just to get that glimpse into future, don't think this will translate into good legs in long run.

[BadOlCatSylvester]

This is a holiday weekend in the US, so get ready for some cartoonishly modest estimates from Disney's end. They'll probably report a barely $100M 3-day estimate.

[thajdikt]

5 minutes ago, BadOlCatSylvester said:

This is a holiday weekend in the US, so get ready for some cartoonishly modest estimates from Disney's end. They'll probably report a barely $100M 3-day estimate.

Would assume that given the horrible reviews and bad mouth that they would rather try to pump that up so much as possible to get the headlines.

[M37]

14 minutes ago, Favorite Fearless Legion said:

Was kicking around a hypothesis that the 4th recent B level may not have as harsh n effect as say the 1st and 2md because it isn't as surprising ( and was "priced in" more to begin with)

Can make a decent argument that AMWQ “lost” a higher $ value (or at least %) of potential OW to poor reviews than either Thor or MoM, but it does seem to have been baked in since Thursday, not crashing and weakening the daily pattern 
 

But let’s see how Sunday goes, as that’s the day when WOM effect really starts to kick in. NWH was -20% for this Sunday last year, seems like a good enough expectations bar, better that Capt Marvel’s -26% for non-holiday March Sun (and we certainly won’t see BP’s -9% Sun)

[Cooper Legion]

16 minutes ago, M37 said:

Can make a decent argument that AMWQ “lost” a higher $ value (or at least %) of potential OW to poor reviews than either Thor or MoM, but it does seem to have been baked in since Thursday, not crashing and weakening the daily pattern 
 

But let’s see how Sunday goes, as that’s the day when WOM effect really starts to kick in. NWH was -20% for this Sunday last year, seems like a good enough expectations bar, better that Capt Marvel’s -26% for non-holiday March Sun (and we certainly won’t see BP’s -9% Sun)

Well, it actually went full on rotten, unlike MoM and L&T which were simply uncertified fresh. I think QM lost about a similar % as the other mcu rotten — ~30% — but more on that later.

[THUNDER BIRD]

1 minute ago, Favorite Fearless Legion said:

Well, it actually went full on rotten, unlike MoM and L&T which were simply uncertified fresh. I think QM lost about a similar % as the other mcu rotten — ~30% — but more on that later.

Regarding WOM, people will go just to see the future of MCU. Even with bad reactions, Thor or Eternals had no such factor.

[Cooper Legion]

This is a complicated topic with a lot of factors that can go into it (primarily the expectations for the movie among the target audience and the demographics of that audience as far as the degree of being tapped into reactions ASAP). But just as a pretty crude approximation, the way I think of it is:

impact of WOM on legs (post D7/true OWeek) — LARGE, ~ +-100% (as in a baseline add of ~1x the OWeek for a certain movie varying from .5-2x with horrible/great reception). I think this is pretty well agreed upon and reasons are obvious.

impact of WOM on wknd daily behavior (true FSS/th) — small, perhaps +-12.5% (e.g. a baseline IM of 8.2 (fss/th 7.2) for a certain movie varying from fss/th of 6.4-8.1). I get the sense that this is mostly what you were asking about @stuart360, Fri/th and sat/fri and sun/sat kind of stuff. Considerations like raw size, genre, demos, franchise, and calendar tend to dominate in determining these early ratios more than audience reception, and simply not having much time for words to get around is a big part of that. Sun/Th sees the biggest hit because of compounding, but is least important to the wknd figure, whereas True Fri is most important to the wknd but sees the least impact from audience WoM.

impact of audience WOM on Th — like 0%, almost tautologically… but critical reception can have a moderate impact here, again depending on expectations and how tuned in to reactions the core ticket buyers are

[cheesypoofs]

Was the OD 46 or 63? BOM is reporting 63 on their website

[Issac Newton]

All Releases

DOMESTIC (54.7%)
$63,500,000

INTERNATIONAL (45.3%)
$52,600,000

WORLDWIDE
$116,100,000

Key:Estimated

Date	DOW	Rank	Daily	%± YD	%± LW	Theaters	Avg	To Date	Day

Feb 17

Friday

1

$63,500,000

-

-

4,345

$14,614

$63,500,000

1

[Cooper Legion]

3 minutes ago, cheesypoofs said:

Was the OD 46 or 63? BOM is reporting 63 on their website

BOM is drunk

 

Spoiler

They double added previews 

 

[JustLurking]

4 minutes ago, cheesypoofs said:

Was the OD 46 or 63? BOM is reporting 63 on their website

Mojo added previews twice. It's 46.

[Liiviig 1998]

54 minutes ago, M37 said:

Can make a decent argument that AMWQ “lost” a higher $ value (or at least %) of potential OW to poor reviews than either Thor or MoM, but it does seem to have been baked in since Thursday, not crashing and weakening the daily pattern 
 

But let’s see how Sunday goes, as that’s the day when WOM effect really starts to kick in. NWH was -20% for this Sunday last year, seems like a good enough expectations bar, better that Capt Marvel’s -26% for non-holiday March Sun (and we certainly won’t see BP’s -9% Sun)

Uncharted -24% is also a good comp.

[M37]

2 minutes ago, Liiviig 1998 said:

Uncharted -24% is also a good comp.

Maybe, but CBMs tends to have good Sundays even without holiday - Batman was also -21% Sun for its OW. 

[Cooper Legion]

Holiday effects seemed a bit subdued during covid so I am hoping for slightly better sun holds across the board. That said -20 is pretty firmly on the better end of pres sun drops. Usually you’d expect an opening sun for a big movie to be able to hit it, but then again B, but then again fine Sat bump, but then again…

 

anyway, presales in HK seem to be pointing -20 as well.

[Valonqar]

People love Modok. Don't know why critics slept on him but even fan reviews that are meh on the movie rave Modok. He' trending again and is a popular meme already. Also, MCU movies always do well on Saturday.

[M37]

5 minutes ago, Favorite Fearless Legion said:

Holiday effects seemed a bit subdued during covid

Agree, but that seems to be finally wearing off? Christmas week, MLK Day, even V-Day all seem to reverting back to “normal” bumps. Highest drop in T10 for MLK Sun was -26%, with NFL WC playoff games, vs a lot of >40% the following Sunday 

 

Casual audience isn’t back, but they look to be coming back, particularly during holiday periods 

[Cooper Legion]

7 minutes ago, M37 said:

Agree, but that seems to be finally wearing off? Christmas week, MLK Day, even V-Day all seem to reverting back to “normal” bumps. Highest drop in T10 for MLK Sun was -26%, with NFL WC playoff games, vs a lot of >40% the following Sunday 

 

Casual audience isn’t back, but they look to be coming back, particularly during holiday periods 

Yeah that’s what I was saying — hoping for better sun  and mon this pres than from last year

[Godzilla]

Expecting around a 65% drop next weekend for Quantumania.