Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania — Weekend Thread | 105.5M 3-Day, 120M 4-Day

[TheFlatLannister]

14 minutes ago, THUNDER BIRD said:

Way to miss the point.

 

Also you need to be next level fan to see optimism in B Cinemascore.

Cinemascore isn't the end all be all. Is it a good metric, sure. Is it a definite rule, no. 

[THUNDER BIRD]

1 minute ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Cinemascore isn't the end all be all. Is it a good metric, sure. Is it a definite rule, no. 

We then what's a better metric? 

 

Ant Man 3 with KANG not crossing Ant Man 2. I guess that should settle things up.

[keysersoze123]

14 minutes ago, THUNDER BIRD said:

Way to miss the point.

 

Also you need to be next level fan to see optimism in B Cinemascore.

Cinemascore by itself is pointless. Ultimately these movies have to be judged by their box office. We are over analyzing this data. 

 

I would say things are going bad for MCU when their presales go down big time. We have not see that for sure. In fact they have no comparison at this point. 

 

I am not even a MCU fanboy. I have only seen NWH in theatres since Endgame and struggle to even complete Wakanda on Disney + :-) That said one cannot ignore how big its fan base is. Eternals BO was not good enough. Ant-man is still ok. One could say their BO in Korea or China is a concern but overall its still doing ok. They are selling as many tickets as the previous entries have sold. That is not a joke for a franchise that has churned 2-3 movies an year for past decade+. 

[TwoMisfits]

2 minutes ago, Shawn said:

I'd counter that Strange isn't a fair comparison since it was definitely off-putting to families with its horror elements. That's part of the reason it's legs couldn't sustain even with minimal competition. It was probably one of the least family-friendly MCU films released in some time.

 

Quantumania is leaning toward the other end of the spectrum with its established ensemble comedy vibes after two (now three) films, which really helped its legs in 2015 and 2018 already.

 

And this is why box office is fun - we'll have to see which thought pans out, or if it falls somewhere in the middle:).

 

That said, I did go looking for theatrical openers through Easter, and there are a TON of wide openers coming down the path (some obviously 1-2 week bookings, some less so), so when you'd think a movie might be able to stick around a long time for this season and accrue some pretty legs, it might not get there if it doesn't show promise very early...

 

So, this won't get the "default very wide" stay that say, Avatar 2 and Puss in Boots got all this winter...it's gonna have to earn theatrical stays and legs...

 

 

[Issac Newton]

From Deadline Hollywood

 

The 3-day of this past weekend for all films per Comscore was $139.9M, +48% from the same weekend a year ago.

 

1.) Ant-man and the Wasp Quantumania (Dis) 4,345 theaters, Fri $46M, Sat $33.8M Sun $25.7M Mon $14.5M 3-day $105.5M, 4-day $120M/Wk 1

 

2.) Avatar: The Way of Water (Dis) 2,675 theaters (-390), Fri $1.35M (-21%), Sat $2.7M Sun $2.3M Mon $1.44M 3-day $6.45M (-10%),4-day $7.899M Total $658.8M /Wk 10

 

3.) Puss in Boots: Last Wish (Uni) 3,012 theaters (-215), Fri $1.2M (-8%) Sat $2.26M Sun $1.83M Mon $1.75M 3-day $5.3M (-5%), 4-day $7.05M Total $167.8M/Wk 9

 

4.) Magic Mike’s Last Dance (WB) 3034 (+1538) theaters, Fri $1.7M (-59%) Sat $2.15M Sun $1.6M 3-day $5.46M (-34%), 4-day $6.26M, total $18.85M/Wk 2

 

5.) Knock at the Cabin (Uni) 2,601 (-1056) theaters, Fri $1M (-41%), Sat $1.7M Sun $1.24M Mon $620K 3-day $3.97M (-27%),4-day $4.59M Total $31M /Wk 3

 

6.) 80 for Brady (Par) 3,119 (-820) theaters, Fri $990K (-46%)Sat $1.5M Sun $1.22M Mon $750K 3-day $3.75M (-35%), 4-day $4.5M/Total $33.1M/Wk 3

 

7.) Titanic (Par) 2,132 theaters (-332), Fri $620K (-77%), Sat $955K Sun $835K Mon $490K 3-day $2.4M (-64%), 4-day $2.9M, Total $13M/Wk 2

 

8.) Marlowe (Briarcliff) 2281 theaters, Fri $540K,Sat $760K Sun $500 Mon $300K 3-day $1.8M 4-day $2.1M Total $2.86M/Wk 1

 

9.) Missing (Sony) 1,516 (-799) theaters, Fri $425K (-40%), Sat $760K Sun $565K Mon $320K 3 day $1.75M (-31%) 4 day $2.07M Total $30M/Wk 5

 

10.) A Man Called Otto (Sony) 1,725 (-1,099) theaters, Fri $407K Sat $692K Sun $501K $285K Mon 3-day $1.6M (-38%) 4-day $1.88M Total $60.9M/Wk 8

[Legion Again]

30 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

I think this is the only forum doom posting after a sequel increased from 75m to 105m OW 🙂 Everywhere else I see only optimism. 

Everywhere else mostly doesn't know what they're talking about tbf 😛

 

[PlatnumRoyce]

11 hours ago, Spidey Freak said:

 

Both Ragnarok and Homecoming had huge increases over TDW and TASM2 

 

GOTG2 was the only mild disappointment because Gunn's very specific cultural frame of reference in 70s/80s American pop-culture doesn't relate very well to OS audiences. It will be interesting to see if GOTG3 will have slightly muted OS grosses too and what it means for Gunn's upcoming DC slate if he brings along some of his same sensibilities.

Sure but Homecoming (with Iron Man) was flat outside of China relative to TASM1. I still think Homecoming's gross was oversold even if it didn't go full Batman Begins.

[Poseidon]

I'm not quite sure what's going on.

 

Ant-Man and the Wasp, even after Infinity War, only had a mild increase in overall BO compared to the first one. 

I never even thought about Ant-Man as a $300m-Movie. The Character is pretty much second rate and you could actually argue, if he's more of a supporting actor within the Avengers. 

 

The start, in my opinion, is pretty fine. The real problem is the B-Cinemascore and i'm waiting for the movie, when audiences quitly decide, that it's enough for now. 

[Legion Again]

I agree with Shawn though that, while QM departs from the pure family friendliness of the first two, it is still much more so than DS2 (or even say WF). Daily ratios so far look a little impacted but far from crippled. Neither Creed nor Scream are very direct completion and Shazam is pretty late into the run+set to underwhelm.  

 

Not expecting good legs by any means but don't think it'll just plunge off a cliff either.

[Liiviig 1998]

21 minutes ago, THUNDER BIRD said:

We then what's a better metric? 

 

Ant Man 3 with KANG not crossing Ant Man 2. I guess that should settle things up.

And no more "it didn't release in china "  excuse anymore too.

 

 

[Shawn Robbins]

22 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

And this is why box office is fun - we'll have to see which thought pans out, or if it falls somewhere in the middle:).

 

That said, I did go looking for theatrical openers through Easter, and there are a TON of wide openers coming down the path (some obviously 1-2 week bookings, some less so), so when you'd think a movie might be able to stick around a long time for this season and accrue some pretty legs, it might not get there if it doesn't show promise very early...

 

So, this won't get the "default very wide" stay that say, Avatar 2 and Puss in Boots got all this winter...it's gonna have to earn theatrical stays and legs...

 

 

Yeah, that's definitely one downside I think we've seen play out with the increasing demand for premium screens too. Even though Ant doesn't face a true blue family-friendly movie until Shazam 2, it loses IMAX and other premiums on weekend #3 to Creed 3.

[stuart360]

70% drop next weekend for Ant Man?. Its certainly going to be over 60%.

[Legion Again]

A great deal of the overall multiplier for movies like this is determined by day 14. You'd always be happier keeping plfs for longer ceteris paribus but the cake is *mostly* going to be baked by demand for screens in the next 10 days moreso than supply of screens beyond that (which will still be sufficient to support the teen and single digit mil grosses without much strain).

 

[XXR vs XXR]

10 minutes ago, stuart360 said:

70% drop next weekend for Ant Man?. Its certainly going to be over 60%.

64-68% is my expectation 

[TwoMisfits]

3 minutes ago, XXR of the Galaxy said:

64-68% is my expectation 

 

MoM dropped 67%.  I'd probably go +/- 3% of that drop and go with 64-70%.

[GOGODanca]

What kind of holds can we expect for A2 and PIB2 next weekend? obviously sunday won't be as strong but do we think friday and saturday can be better than this weekend hold wise?

Edited February 20, 2023 by GOGODanca

[Verrows]

2 hours ago, Dragoncaine said:

That's a pretty harsh Sunday drop for AMQ considering the inflated Sunday. WoM already kicking in?

 

Wild if actuals get A2 to $8m this weekend after all

That's what I thought but I realized it's practically the exact same drop as Uncharted last year and that movie was over two times smaller (ie. You'd expect a better drop with smaller numbers).

 

Would the drop have been better for a better movie? Oh, no doubt. For the movie we got, I honestly expected worse.

[dax33]

1 hour ago, Xavier said:

I seriously don’t intend to start any fan boy wars, but when I see that they made a freaking Ant Man trilogy, with perhaps the most insignificant of superheroes, I’m constantly reminded of the fact that the masterpiece that was Man of Steel couldn’t get a real sequel and my faith in this world is getting crushed.

Man of Steel was already one too many of Snyder's Superman

[SpiderByte]

1 hour ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Cinemascore isn't the end all be all. Is it a good metric, sure. Is it a definite rule, no. 

Yeah, people don't realize the average person has no fucking idea what Cinemascore is.

[Madhuvan]

Never thought I would see this condition of MCU after Phase 3 where making 500m for movies would be big task