Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania — Weekend Thread | 105.5M 3-Day, 120M 4-Day

[Verrows]

2 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

14m 

Damn man....

[Dale Cooper]

9 hours ago, Ronin46 said:

So you were expecting a B Cinemascore and Rotten? Because patting yourself on the back over your prediction when that was what was needed for it to be right seems the wrong way I would look at IMO. Average reception would have got it to 120 pretty easily I would have thought. I suppose caveats need to be put for every movie based on reception but for something to be ranked in the bottom few for Marvel and still do this well shows what might have happened with a good movie and makes those "optimistic" predictions not look to bad honestly.

 

I remember Legion arguing with Shawn when he put his first LT tracking number of just under 100. How strong he was that the data would not allow it to go under 100M opening. Despite being so poorly received by critics (maybe a bit better by audience so far) it still made it with a bit to spare. So he was right.

 

Well, I expected that it wouldn't be especially well received as it's fairly common for MCU films these days. You can also not be sure what average reception would have gotten it, I would argue that the OW wouldn't be that affected by reviews unless they truly were teriffic. Maybe a bit higher than now, but certainly not $15m. It was also fairly evident before the reviews dropped that it had lost a lot of ground compared to the comps.

 

But hey, kudos to you that you're admitting you were wrong!

[Willowra]

23 hours ago, JustLurking said:

Depends on how successful these films are. AM3 making like 530-550 or something off a 200M budget isn't a money loser but it isn't much of a moneymaker either esp. 

I just got to know that AM3 was filmed at Pinewood Studios in England, so its actual budget won't be $200 million as it will get 25% tax credits. Its real budget should be $150 million after getting tax credits.

Edited February 21, 2023 by Willowra

[Joyous Legion]

Painfully obvious by this point that a mere 50th percentile MCU reception (as opposed to 5th) would have taken the 3day to 130+. 

[Valonqar]

14 hours ago, Godzilla said:

 

 

The Marvels is a wildcard. That all depends on quality. $400M - $800M? 

 

Geez, what a joke. No way that any established MCU movie character (hard to say about D+ ones branching out in movies) is gonna have a WW boxoffice this low. The Marvels moved to November so Xmas holiday season will save its face dom like it did WF's. I think TM could match WF WW but with reverse numbers cause CM skewed OS and BP keeps skewing dom. with 350M-ish dom and 450M-ish to 500M OS, TM could match WF's 855M or close. 

Edited February 21, 2023 by Valonqar

[TwoMisfits]

2 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

 

Geez, what a joke. No way that any established MCU movie character (hard to say about D+ ones branching out in movies) is gonna have a WW boxoffice this low. The Marvels moved to November so Xmas holiday season will save its face dom like it did WF's. I think TM could match WF WW but with reverse numbers cause CM skewed OS and BP keeps skewing dom. with 350M-ish dom and 450M-ish to 500M OS, TM could match WF's 855M or close. 

 

Only thing with Christmas and Marvels vs WF.  WF had NO superhero competition AND Disney dropped its Thanksgiving animated to be "the D+ Xmas present" to let WF keep screens.

 

This Christmas, neither of those scenarios are likely to be true.

[gatoconbotas]

AM3 over or under 550m global?

[Liiviig 1998]

35 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

 

Geez, what a joke. No way that any established MCU movie character (hard to say about D+ ones branching out in movies) is gonna have a WW boxoffice this low. The Marvels moved to November so Xmas holiday season will save its face dom like it did WF's. I think TM could match WF WW but with reverse numbers cause CM skewed OS and BP keeps skewing dom. with 350M-ish dom and 450M-ish to 500M OS, TM could match WF's 855M or close. 

More like 400M+ OS . Gonna drop OS too.

 

Dom had it at 335m but just like WF holiday could boost it to 350m.

 

750-775m

 

China seems like a non starter for atleast 2023 for marvel.

 

2024 is basically wildcards . Only Deadpool is the standout.

[Firepower]

I predicted 500-600 mln for Ant-Man, my prediction for The Marvels is the same as it was back then, it has absolutely nothing going for it and it's highly unlikely it's gonna be good, the biggest collapse is gonna be overseas as well.

 

5 hours ago, DTP said:

Expectation:  "Avatar is gonna take a big hit when Ant-Man arrives"

Reality:  10% drop 

Yep, just putting to rest those nonsense excuses from Avatar haters.

Edited February 21, 2023 by Firepower

[Flamengo81]

The Marvels is going to do Ant-Man 2 numbers IMO.

[reddevil19]

25 minutes ago, Flamengo81 said:

The Marvels is going to do Ant-Man 2 numbers IMO.

I don't see it, unless GOTG3 also drops, thereby solidifying the idea that the MCU is dying. For now, I don't expect it to open much lower than the first one. That's what I expected the situation with WF to be as well (domestically at least) - an opening big enough that even with "meh" WOM it can't drop THAT much (i.e. under 400 for WF and under 250 for TM). I think 330-350 DOM and 400-500 OS (depending on reception).

[M37]

I really don't understand the constant need for validation from Avatar stans. So in response to the now 3 "OMG -10%!" comments...

 

Sure, its -10%, when comparing a holiday inflated weekend to a Super Bowl deflated one. The Sat to Sat drop - more indicative of actual hold - is -28%, sure good in the face of a $100M opener, but in a still limited competition market with a lot of fat to trim, where only Puss in Boots held a higher share of theaters.

 

Anyway, here are the Sat/Sat PTA drops for the last week's top 10 (based on estimates), where it sure doesn't look to me like any one (or even 2) films really stand out, but rather the whole market just moving together:

31.4%, 16.1%, 18.0%, 14.7%, 17.3%, 66.1%, 15.9%, 21.8%, 18.9%, 59.0%

[Flamengo81]

15 minutes ago, reddevil19 said:

I don't see it, unless GOTG3 also drops, thereby solidifying the idea that the MCU is dying. For now, I don't expect it to open much lower than the first one. That's what I expected the situation with WF to be as well (domestically at least) - an opening big enough that even with "meh" WOM it can't drop THAT much (i.e. under 400 for WF and under 250 for TM). I think 330-350 DOM and 400-500 OS (depending on reception).

I don't think Domestic will drop too hard, but overseas on the other hand...

I see something like 270M domestic and 380M overseas.

[Flamengo81]

2 hours ago, gatoconbotas said:

AM3 over or under 550m global?

Under, but barely.

[IronJimbo]

14 minutes ago, M37 said:

I really don't understand the constant need for validation from Avatar stans. So in response to the now 3 "OMG -10%!" comments...

 

Sure, its -10%, when comparing a holiday inflated weekend to a Super Bowl deflated one. The Sat to Sat drop - more indicative of actual hold - is -28%, sure good in the face of a $100M opener, but in a still limited competition market with a lot of fat to trim, where only Puss in Boots held a higher share of theaters.

 

Anyway, here are the Sat/Sat PTA drops for the last week's top 10 (based on estimates), where it sure doesn't look to me like any one (or even 2) films really stand out, but rather the whole market just moving together:

31.4%, 16.1%, 18.0%, 14.7%, 17.3%, 66.1%, 15.9%, 21.8%, 18.9%, 59.0%

 

 

Avatar 2 is finishing #3 worldwide, we've known this for over a month. The stans no longer care about american dailies

[DAJK]

5 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

 

 

Avatar 2 is finishing #3 worldwide, we've known this for over a month. The stans no longer care about american dailies

Perhaps their comment was directed more at people analyzing the box office for the box office’s sake, not “Avatar stans”.

[Borobudur]

24 minutes ago, M37 said:

I really don't understand the constant need for validation from Avatar stans. So in response to the now 3 "OMG -10%!" comments...

 

Sure, its -10%, when comparing a holiday inflated weekend to a Super Bowl deflated one. The Sat to Sat drop - more indicative of actual hold - is -28%, sure good in the face of a $100M opener, but in a still limited competition market with a lot of fat to trim, where only Puss in Boots held a higher share of theaters.

 

Anyway, here are the Sat/Sat PTA drops for the last week's top 10 (based on estimates), where it sure doesn't look to me like any one (or even 2) films really stand out, but rather the whole market just moving together:

31.4%, 16.1%, 18.0%, 14.7%, 17.3%, 66.1%, 15.9%, 21.8%, 18.9%, 59.0%

Problem is we been told for weeks this is the week when Avatar 2 crumble hard. 

[reddevil19]

12 minutes ago, Flamengo81 said:

I don't think Domestic will drop too hard, but overseas on the other hand...

I see something like 270M domestic and 380M overseas.

Well, your 380 isn't far from my 400 low-end OS. Difference IS domestic in our expectations, despite you saying it won't drop that much.

45% OS drop I can see, especially without China (or a far smaller than ideal result), and as I said, it's not far off from my 400. But almost 40% drop domestic seems excessive to me when the first was big but not Black Panther level. And 650, your pessimistic scenario, is still higher than the second Ant Man (30 million higher, but still). It seems to me even with your gloomy outlook, it's still gonna do more than AM2 and probably closer to 700. Maybe the first Doctor Strange, but with 30-40 million more domestically and same amount less OS, if that's what you're expecting? That was 3rd quarter release too, but TM is later in the calendar, thereby allowing (in my opinion), for the better holiday legs (on top of a higher opening) to account for that uptick compared to Strange domestically (30-ish million in your expectation, closer to 100 in mine)

[stuart360]

38 minutes ago, M37 said:

I really don't understand the constant need for validation from Avatar stans. So in response to the now 3 "OMG -10%!" comments...

 

Sure, its -10%, when comparing a holiday inflated weekend to a Super Bowl deflated one. The Sat to Sat drop - more indicative of actual hold - is -28%, sure good in the face of a $100M opener, but in a still limited competition market with a lot of fat to trim, where only Puss in Boots held a higher share of theaters.

 

Anyway, here are the Sat/Sat PTA drops for the last week's top 10 (based on estimates), where it sure doesn't look to me like any one (or even 2) films really stand out, but rather the whole market just moving together:

31.4%, 16.1%, 18.0%, 14.7%, 17.3%, 66.1%, 15.9%, 21.8%, 18.9%, 59.0%

M37 why does it bother you if you have seen 3 posts impressed with A2's 10% drop?.

I mean a lot of people were expecting the film to drop a lot more on Ant Mans OW.

Next week if Ant Man had a great 30% drop or soemhting liek that, we would have page after page of Marvel fans creaming themselves.

 

Seen a few salty posts on here this wekend in regards to A2. I guess hitting no.3 on the all time chart has hurt some poeple.

[Firepower]

What's the reason for The Marvels to not drop really hard from the first one? Maybe it's gonna have a huge guest character that's gonna boost its potential? Or maybe it's gonna be connected to a huge crossover? Or maybe the first film was very well received and the character is beloved? Or maybe this movie is gonna be so incredible all other things are not gonna matter and it'll carry itself with unbelievable WOM? No?