Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania — Weekend Thread | 105.5M 3-Day, 120M 4-Day

[YM!]

Just now, stephanos13 said:

 

Is he still banned and watches with a burner? 🙂

Iirc you can still be banned and go onto the forum. You just can’t comment. Or he’s signed off and viewing it. Idk Idc.

[stephanos13]

14 minutes ago, kayumanggi said:

 

 

"Giant"

 

[Hiccup23]

Not a bad hold for Knock at the Cabin. 

[kayumanggi]

12 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

Yes, Sunday will be pretty much Saturday 2.0 which will inflate the weekend 

 

THE WAY OF WATER has surprised us again. On its 10th weekend. 😂

[Elessar]

21 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

More like 7M with a nearly flat drop 

 

I'm not sold on 7m yet. NWH for instance had a rather low SAT bump for some reason on the same weekend, maybe because FRI was somewhat inflated? Doesn't mean A2 will behave the same, just something to think about...

[ThomasNicole]

4 minutes ago, Eric the Conqueror said:

It was going to be a 2-month suspension. But the literal day he was allowed to return to the forum, he used that time to PM Shawn, the guy who pays for this entire website, threats, insults, and attacks because we dared to hold him accountable for his actions. So my overlord Shawn decided to permanently ban him, since he didn't learn his lesson and decided to use his newfound freedom to go after the main guy in charge instead of just trying to be respectful and courteous.

 

It's very funny. For a guy who prides himself on being the smartest person in the room and for always being right all the time on everything...he acted pretty stupid there. It's very stupid to go into my PMs or Cap's or Zee's or XXR's and insult and berate us. But to go after the guy who is in charge of this whole website? The guy who made this website happen? The guy who actually works in the industry and is often quoted in big articles from CNN and CNBC and other business sites...what did he think was gonna happen?

I'm speechless lol this is the dumbest thing ever for someone who obviously cares A LOT about this forum 

 

But nice to know how important we are for him after so many months, dude just don't get over it

[CaptNathanBrittles]

Previews to OD %:

 

ANT-MAN: 28.3%

ANT-MAN 2: 34%

ANT-MAN 3: 38%

[kayumanggi]

 

[keysersoze123]

Empire is at point of no return. Let us move on. 

 

Anyway Ant-man did ok. Close to 63% increase from previews for true friday. PS for saturday is just under 5% up from friday PS. With better walkups I am estimating 10-12% increase today. ~ 32 million. Issue is more tickets are sold outside prime time impacting ATP. But ratios will be lower today. 

 

Anything lower would mean WOM is impacting it already. 

[ThomasNicole]

2 minutes ago, Elessar said:

 

I'm not sold on 7m yet. NWH for instance had a rather low SAT bump for some reason on the same weekend, maybe because FRI was somewhat inflated? Doesn't mean A2 will behave the same, just something to think about...

This makes sense, let's see, A2 is a very SAT movie, if the trend continues than 7M is happening, but you're right 

[MikeQ]

I certainly appreciate all of the nuanced discussion of the MCU, its recent critical reception, current direction, future prospects, etc.

 

All that said, another $100M+ opener from the MCU - making 70 films that have ever opened to $100M+, of which 17 are MCU films. This means that about a quarter of 100M+ openers are MCU films - and when only looking at films that opened since the MCU started, that's closer to 30%. I'm thankful for the MCU, because without it, we would have significantly less blockbuster openers to enjoy and parse (and debate) as so many are now.

 

The franchise does seem to be getting more fan driven lately, which I suppose is to be expected given the interconnected universe approach and the larger the franchise gets. 38% of Ant-Man's opening day from 17.5M in previews in February.

 

Estimated Top Midnight/Preview Grosses for MCU Films

 

Rank / Title / Gross / Share of Opening Day

1. Avengers: Endgame (2019) — 60.0 million (38.1%)
2. Spider-Man: No Way Home (2021) — 50.0 million (41.0%)
3. Avengers: Infinity War (2018) — 39.0 million (36.7%)
4. Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness (2022) — 36.0 million (39.7%)
5. Thor: Love and Thunder (2022) — 29.0 million (41.7%)
6. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (2022) — 28.0 million (33.2%)
7. Avengers: Age of Ultron (2015) — 27.6 million (32.7%)
8. Black Panther (2018) — 25.2 million (33.2%)
9. Captain America: Civil War (2016) — 25.0 million (33.1%)
10. Captain Marvel (2019) — 20.7 million (33.5%)
11. Marvel's The Avengers (2012) — 18.7 million (23.1%)
12. Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania (2023) — 17.5 million (38.0%)
13. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 (2017) — 17.0 million (30.2%)
14. Iron Man 3 (2013) — 15.6 million (22.7%)
15. Spider-Man: Homecoming (2017) — 15.4 million (30.5%)
16. Thor: Ragnarok (2017) — 14.5 million (31.0%)
17. Black Widow (2021) — 13.2 million (33.4%)
18. Ant-Man and the Wasp (2018) — 11.5 million (34.1%)

Peace,

Mike

Edited February 18, 2023 by MikeQ

[grey ghost]

18 minutes ago, upriser7 said:

I wish they can unban him...I was bit inactive during the period when he got banned but he definitely made the forum more interesting.

 

Interesting as in thoughtful dialogue or as in watching a troll roast everyone because they feel untouchable?

[YM!]

40 minutes ago, filmlover said:

I think Super Mario Bros will open in the $70-80M range between the Easter frame and being the first family film since Christmas, provided everything goes right.

Part of me wonder if Mario can pull a Jungle Book and open to 100m+.

[Ronin46]

3 minutes ago, YM! said:

Part of me wonder if Mario can pull a Jungle Book and open to 100m+.

 

I think it is quite possible IMO.

[filmlover]

8 minutes ago, YM! said:

Part of me wonder if Mario can pull a Jungle Book and open to 100m+.

Not sure about that but as long as it doesn't end up another Detective Pikachu (ie social media buzz overinflating expectations for presumed real world interest) I don't see why it can't at least match The Lorax's $70M from 11 years ago.

[Mr Roark]

$46M FRI DOM

$29M FRI OS (with $6M from China)

 

What an impressive split.

[Valonqar]

45 minutes ago, interiorgatordecorator said:

 

is it normal for latinos to pretty much tie caucasians?

 

It simply shows that Caucasians had less interest in this compared to some other MCU while Latinos had more compared to some other MCU. That's what Audience Share is about. Some movies skew one demo (example 58% One Demo) others are more even. That said, $ total is important. 18% audience share of 200M OW means more people in that demo saw a movie than 33% of a 30M OW. 

[TigerPaw]

1 hour ago, CJohn said:

March looks like a fun month to track if the audience shows up. Creed and Scream are easy bets for 30M+ OWs, DnD and 65 have breakout potential if reviews are good and John Wick can do 60M+ OW. The tomato needs to be fresh but the potential is there for a strong month. The weak link is Shazam, which has zero buzz and bad pre-sales and I don't see interest picking up anytime soon unless it has a 90%+ score on RT, so I am still under 30M OW for that one.

Very unfortunate for Shazam 2. The first film had so much heart, and genuinely one of the best films of 2019...

 

[Dragoncaine]

I think the MC score for Quantumania will still go down another point or two. It just got a few scathing reviews from Top Critics on RT who I'm pretty sure count toward MC as well -- including a 0/5 from the San Diego Reader. Obviously MC isn't as viewed for movies as RT, but still, I truly wonder if this could somehow miss $200m DOM (seems unlikely but not impossible, I guess?)

Edited February 18, 2023 by Dragoncaine

[MikeQ]

1 hour ago, Borobudur said:

3

(3)

Avatar: The Way of Water

20th Century…

$1,358,000

+158%

-21%

2,675

$508

$652,315,991

64

 

This is a significantly better Friday-to-Friday drop than I expected before this week, coming up against Ant-Man. With the strength of this weekend, I'm only now feeling confident in saying that Way of Water can hit the 5+ multiplier mark. As of now:

 

Best Multipliers Ever for $70+ Million Opening Films (Friday Openers):

1. Avatar (2009) — 77.0 million (9.73)
2. Top Gun: Maverick (2022) — 126.7 million (5.67)
3. Avatar: The Way of Water (2022) — 134.1 million (4.86)^
4. Finding Nemo (2003) — 70.3 million (4.84)
5. Zootopia (2016) — 75.1 million (4.55)
6. Wonder Woman (2017) — 103.3 million (4.00)
7. Inside Out (2015) — 90.4 million (3.94)
8. American Sniper (2015) — 89.3 million (3.92)
9. Aladdin (2019) — 91.5 million (3.89)
10. Star Wars: The Force Awakens (2015) — 248.0 million (3.78)
11. Toy Story 3 (2010) — 110.3 million (3.76)
12. The Incredibles (2004) — 70.5 million (3.71)
13. Frozen II (2019) — 130.3 million (3.66)
14. Despicable Me 3 (2017) — 72.4 million (3.65)
15. Finding Dory (2016) — 135.1 million (3.60)
16. Toy Story 4 (2019) — 120.9 million (3.59)
17. The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey (2012) — 84.6 million (3.58)
18. The Secret Life of Pets (2016) — 104.4 million (3.53)
19. The Jungle Book (2016) — 103.3 million (3.53)
20. Guardians of the Galaxy (2014) — 94.3 million (3.53)
21. Harry Potter and the Sorceror’s Stone (2001) — 90.3 million (3.52)
22. Spider-Man (2002) — 114.8 million (3.52)
23. The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug (2013) — 73.6 million (3.51)
24. Joker (2019) — 96.2 million (3.49)
25. Black Panther (2018) — 202.0 million (3.47)

 

A note that it's always important to keep in mind the various factors that influence the legs of a film. For example, I think Black Panther's near 3.5 multiplier off of a 200+ million opening weekend in the middle of February (with no summer weekdays or December holidays, and for the type of fan-driven blockbuster film it is) to be exceptional - and I'm not trying to say it is the "25th best" in isolation. Animated/family films tend to have stronger legs, regardless of release date, and so they are overrepresented on this list. Etc.

 

Peace,

Mike

Edited February 18, 2023 by MikeQ