How many films will surpass $700M at the box office worldwide this year?

[Kalo]

1 hour ago, Sophie said:

Even if that 250M dom number came true, you really think Barbie of all things would have a 35/65 split? 

 

I still don't see Barbie making much at all. Seems like something perfectly tuned to get a ton of online attention and very little interest from General audiences. 

 

[Sophie]

On 6/18/2023 at 9:14 AM, Kalo said:

 

 

Don't take it the wrong way, I'd very much like to be wrong about Barbie. 

 

Y'know... it's a little off topic, but speaking of these films, do you think there's a chance that Haunted Mansion won't be able to crack the top 2 against these two films' second week? 

[AJG]

From Matt Belloni and PUCK

 

Quote

Big picture, if you look at the “ultimate” worldwide estimates going around the studios this weekend, the numbers for some big bets in theaters aren’t great:

Flash: $345 million to $415 million
Fast X: $690 million to $710 million
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse: $575 million to $625 million
Elemental: $230 million to $280 million
Transformers: Rise of the Beasts: $387 million to $422 million
The Little Mermaid: $515 million to $550 million

Those are estimates, of course, but… that’s not good enough. Unless Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny or Mission: Impossible—Dead Reckoning Part One overperform expectations, or there’s an out-of-nowhere surprise, like Barbie, this might be the first non-Covid summer without a single billion-dollar grosser in a looong time.  

 

[emoviefan]

11 minutes ago, Sophie said:

 

Don't take it the wrong way, I'd very much like to be wrong about Barbie. 

 

Y'know... it's a little off topic, but speaking of these films, do you think there's a chance that Haunted Mansion won't be able to crack the top 2 against these two films' second week? 

Not even guaranteed top 3 MI DR wont be going anywhere. 

[The Dark Alfred]

There is nothing wrong with the box office. The issue is quality. The films that are getting great WoM are doing very well (GOTG 3, ATSV). Even some of the trash is doing OK (FAST X). Had TLM, TF, FLASH, ELEMENTAL had been any good, we would see much higher totals. It is very simple. INDY won't make it either. MI: DR will easily. Quality matters, which is great to see.

[Sophie]

16 hours ago, The Dark Alfred said:

There is nothing wrong with the box office. The issue is quality. The films that are getting great WoM are doing very well (GOTG 3, ATSV). Even some of the trash is doing OK (FAST X). Had TLM, TF, FLASH, ELEMENTAL had been any good, we would see much higher totals. It is very simple. INDY won't make it either. MI: DR will easily. Quality matters, which is great to see.

Uh, no, lol. 

 

It's pretty damn obvious that relative to pre-covid times, or even relative to 2022, this is not a great year for blockbusters. 

 

It's not like the biggest films of 2019 or 2022 were all critical darlings. 

 

That's not to say that there's something inherently broken about the box office in 2023. But luck has not been on our side with this slate of blockbusters, and that isn't due to perceived quality alone. 

Edited June 20, 2023 by Sophie

[Sophie]

Here's all the evidence showing what your saying is nonsense: 

 

The Little Mermaid had decent critic reviews and great audience reviews. Opened up to a fantastic $95M. Should make it to near $300M domestic. Only reason it's no longer in this thread discussion is because, for whatever reason, it has one of the weakest os shares of any of the live action remakes. 

 

Transformers had the same if not better reviews than most of the original franchise, from both critics and audiences (personally was really shocked by how much better it was, but yeah A- cinemascore, on par with average for franchise). It outperformed expectations a bunch with its $60M opening weekend. But the os share is nowhere near as strong as other transformers films, it's a reboot to a franchise whose last main installment crashed hard, and above all, this is post-covid times where things are all downsized. It would have needed DAMN good word of mouth, or at least a much stronger OS share, to be in contention for 700M. 

 

Elemental was never going to get close to $700M without some insane Top Gun level wom. And check that dom/os split of 67/33. 

 

Spider-Verse, our one film that is really overperforming, might not hit the 700M mark because the os share is worse than the predecessor. 

 

Mario, the biggest breakout of the year, is rotten. 

 

GOTG, the only of the last 5 MCU films to have positive word of mouth, paid for the sins of its predecesors by only opening to 118M, and won't be able to catch up to last year's Doctor Strange movie, despite that film having some of the worst legs of the whole franchise. 

 

Flash tracking was plummeting before any reviews came out. Not easy to say that it could have reached $700M with positive reception. The already piss poor reputation of the DCEU may have put a cap on this film even with goid reviews. Even if BOP's initial 327.5M dom estimate came true, it would still need over a 53% os share in order to pass $700M, which it's just barely holding right now. 

 

Fast X is rhe only one of this slate where you can actually point directly to the legs and say that that's the reason 700M isn't a guarantee. And yet, Fast X is the 3rd biggest film of the year. 

 

Meanwhile, last year's slate of 8 films that surpassed 700M included Jurassic World, Minions, Doctor Strange and Thor which were all relatively maligned by either critics or audiences.

 

So yeah, pretty much none of the evidence points directly to quality being the main issue. The one issue that's coming up more and more for these films is relatively weakened os shares. 

 

 

 

[The Dark Alfred]

Nobody said that quality is the only factor. It is asanine to think that it isn't the main issue however. Please do not ignore facts. TLM didn't get great reviews. It got mixed reviews. It's simply not a great film. It's doing OK domestically. It ain't JUNGLE BOOK quality, that's clear to everyone.

 

The TF franchise were keep making trash films recently. Naturally the audience got bored. This entry is rotten as well.

 

Same applies for MCU, the recent MCU films were not good, the audience won't automatically flock to the next one. GoTG had a lower opening therefore. It had a great WoM, and what a surprise it is carving out a decent tally.

 

DC is even worse, they were only doing mediocre to terrible films and THE FLASH is no different.

 

ATSV great reviews, great box office. Who knew. 

 

Reality is that this year's blockbusters are just not great so far. The ones that received stellar reviews and got great audience scores haven't failed to deliver. Until they do, your point is mute.

 

 

Edited June 20, 2023 by The Dark Alfred

[Kalo]

20 hours ago, Sophie said:

 

Don't take it the wrong way, I'd very much like to be wrong about Barbie. 

 

Y'know... it's a little off topic, but speaking of these films, do you think there's a chance that Haunted Mansion won't be able to crack the top 2 against these two films' second week? 

 

Yeah, Disney is in trouble, I could seeing Haunted Mansion opening to about $12m opening weekend and both Oppenheimer and Barbie should easily be over $20m in their second weekends.

 

Looking something like this

 

Barbie OW $75,000,000

Oppenheimer OW $53,000,000

 

W2

Barbie $38,000,000

Oppenheimer $26,500,000

Haunted Mansion $12,000,000

 

W3 

Barbie $29,000,000

Oppenheimer $19,500,000

 

[Asyulus]

Last hope for summer.

[JustLurking]

1 hour ago, Sophie said:

Here's all the evidence showing what your saying is nonsense: 

 

The Little Mermaid had decent critic reviews and great audience reviews. Opened up to a fantastic $95M. Should make it to near $300M domestic. Only reason it's no longer in this thread discussion is because, for whatever reason, it has one of the weakest os shares of any of the live action remakes. 

 

Transformers had the same if not better reviews than most of the original franchise, from both critics and audiences (personally was really shocked by how much better it was, but yeah A- cinemascore, on par with average for franchise). It outperformed expectations a bunch with its $60M opening weekend. But the os share is nowhere near as strong as other transformers films, it's a reboot to a franchise whose last main installment crashed hard, and above all, this is post-covid times where things are all downsized. It would have needed DAMN good word of mouth, or at least a much stronger OS share, to be in contention for 700M. 

 

Elemental was never going to get close to $700M without some insane Top Gun level wom. And check that dom/os split of 67/33. 

 

Spider-Verse, our one film that is really overperforming, might not hit the 700M mark because the os share is worse than the predecessor. 

 

Mario, the biggest breakout of the year, is rotten. 

 

GOTG, the only of the last 5 MCU films to have positive word of mouth, paid for the sins of its predecesors by only opening to 118M, and won't be able to catch up to last year's Doctor Strange movie, despite that film having some of the worst legs of the whole franchise. 

 

Flash tracking was plummeting before any reviews came out. Not easy to say that it could have reached $700M with positive reception. The already piss poor reputation of the DCEU may have put a cap on this film even with goid reviews. Even if BOP's initial 327.5M dom estimate came true, it would still need over a 53% os share in order to pass $700M, which it's just barely holding right now. 

 

Fast X is rhe only one of this slate where you can actually point directly to the legs and say that that's the reason 700M isn't a guarantee. And yet, Fast X is the 3rd biggest film of the year. 

 

Meanwhile, last year's slate of 8 films that surpassed 700M included Jurassic World, Minions, Doctor Strange and Thor which were all relatively maligned by either critics or audiences.

 

So yeah, pretty much none of the evidence points directly to quality being the main issue. The one issue that's coming up more and more for these films is relatively weakened os shares. 

 

 

 

I don't really disagree with the overall point, but elementals' ratio will go down a lot. It has not released in plenty of major markets i.e. france/italy/spain/mexico/japan yet.

[Koni]

2 hours ago, The Dark Alfred said:

Nobody said that quality is the only factor. It is asanine to think that it isn't the main issue however. Please do not ignore facts. TLM didn't get great reviews. It got mixed reviews. It's simply not a great film. It's doing OK domestically. It ain't JUNGLE BOOK quality, that's clear to everyone.

 

The TF franchise were keep making trash films recently. Naturally the audience got bored. This entry is rotten as well.

 

Same applies for MCU, the recent MCU films were not good, the audience won't automatically flock to the next one. GoTG had a lower opening therefore. It had a great WoM, and what a surprise it is carving out a decent tally.

 

DC is even worse, they were only doing mediocre to terrible films and THE FLASH is no different.

 

ATSV great reviews, great box office. Who knew. 

 

Reality is that this year's blockbusters are just not great so far. The ones that received stellar reviews and got great audience scores haven't failed to deliver. Until they do, your point is mute.

 

 

When compared to Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, Dungeons and Dragons: Honor Among Thieves has a higher Tomatometer percentage (90% vs 82%), has a slight edge in RT critic average rating(7.3 vs 7.2), and a higher Metacritic score (72 vs 64). Guardians has an A CinemaScore with a 91/79 on PostTrak while DnD has a A- CinemaScore with a 90/77 PostTrak. 

The reception to these films seems fairly similarm with both of them being well-recieved. Yet one of them a confirmed flop while the other's the WOM story of the year so far. 

[Barnack]

2 hours ago, Sophie said:

Meanwhile, last year's slate of 8 films that surpassed 700M included Jurassic World, Minions, Doctor Strange and Thor which were all relatively maligned by either critics or audiences.

 

Could be 2022 that event movies got a freepass with theater-movies reopening people excited for anything more than 2023 being harsh or at least a bit of both ?

 

Some numbers where weird, Dr Strange getting close to a 200m OW !? That Thor cleanly out opening the Ragnarok one....

 

 

[Flip]

Dead Reckoning is the only film remaining this year that I’m confident can hit 700m. I just can’t see it decreasing over 90m from Fallout when domestically it’s almost sure to increase. The only situation where it misses 70m is if China tanks significantly and reviews are meh, but the 2nd possibility is impossible

[El Gato]

5 hours ago, The Dark Alfred said:

Nobody said that quality is the only factor. It is asanine to think that it isn't the main issue however. Please do not ignore facts. TLM didn't get great reviews. It got mixed reviews. It's simply not a great film. It's doing OK domestically. It ain't JUNGLE BOOK quality, that's clear to everyone.

 

The TF franchise were keep making trash films recently. Naturally the audience got bored. This entry is rotten as well.

 

Same applies for MCU, the recent MCU films were not good, the audience won't automatically flock to the next one. GoTG had a lower opening therefore. It had a great WoM, and what a surprise it is carving out a decent tally.

 

DC is even worse, they were only doing mediocre to terrible films and THE FLASH is no different.

 

ATSV great reviews, great box office. Who knew. 

 

Reality is that this year's blockbusters are just not great so far. The ones that received stellar reviews and got great audience scores haven't failed to deliver. Until they do, your point is mute.

 

 

Spiderverse failed. It’s not making 700M world wide and that had stellar word of mouth! 
 

I agree with the previous poster, quality isn’t the issue, it’s the overseas audience share has dropped. Maybe they’re getting pickier? Or maybe they’re not interested in American films as much 

[Belakor]

Just now, El Gato said:

Spiderverse failed. It’s not making 700M world wide and that had stellar word of mouth! 
 

I agree with the previous poster, quality isn’t the issue, it’s the overseas audience share has dropped. Maybe they’re getting pickier? Or maybe they’re not interested in American films as much 

Superhero movies saturation is a real thing. Fatigue is also really kicking in. 

I agree, the only movie left this year that can pull a 700m or more is MI:DR

 

GOG3 could have made 1b easily back in 2019. 

 

Marvels is going to do Quantumania numbers if its lucky.

[Marathon]

Inflation continues to eat into purchasing power. Even a lot of mundane everyday stuff has gotten significantly more expensive compared to a few years back. People being pickier about a theater ticket is thus understandable, and it contributes to the depressed grosses of would-be-blockbusters. Until inflation eases to a more manageable level (even some deflation would be welcome), the grosses for would-be-blockbusters will likely hover on a lower plateau than "expected."

[Bobzaruni]

1 hour ago, Belakor said:

Superhero movies saturation is a real thing. Fatigue is also really kicking in. 

I agree, the only movie left this year that can pull a 700m or more is MI:DR

 

GOG3 could have made 1b easily back in 2019. 

 

Marvels is going to do Quantumania numbers if its lucky.

I'm pretty sure it's just because they're unfamiliar with miles morales lol, and hopefully BTSV can grow a decent bit after this with a larger imbued base of support to grow from

[Bob Train]

4 hours ago, El Gato said:

Spiderverse failed. It’s not making 700M world wide and that had stellar word of mouth! 
 

I agree with the previous poster, quality isn’t the issue, it’s the overseas audience share has dropped. Maybe they’re getting pickier? Or maybe they’re not interested in American films as much 

(Spider-Verse can still make it to $700m)

[dudalb]

11 hours ago, Sophie said:

Uh, no, lol. 

 

It's pretty damn obvious that relative to pre-covid times, or even relative to 2022, this is not a great year for blockbusters. 

 

It's not like the biggest films of 2019 or 2022 were all critical darlings. 

 

That's not to say that there's something inherently broken about the box office in 2023. But luck has not been on our side with this slate of blockbusters, and that isn't due to perceived quality alone. 

That theaters have taken a major loss to streaming is obvious, and it;s probably permanent. 

I think this would have happened even if Covid had never happened, it just would have taken four or five years instead of just a couple of years.