Weekend Thread - 3/10-12 | Weekend Estimates: Scream VI 44.5 (franchise best!), Creed III 27.2, LXV 12.3 #AintManIII 7, Cocaine Bear I 6.2

[Xavier]

6 minutes ago, baumer said:

I'm personally kind of stunned at the preview number and the potential opening weekend number for scream part 6. The original three are all but gone with only Cox remaining, and now you have a franchise that is nearing its 30-year Mark in just a few years from now. And yet now it's set to have its highest opening weekend ever? It's incredibly impressive in my opinion.

 

Sorry to be that guy, but inflation plays a big part in this. Still impressive though, but the movie is just not good. I am surprised by the RT score.

[Dragoncaine]

29 minutes ago, Xavier said:

 

Sorry to be that guy, but inflation plays a big part in this. Still impressive though, but the movie is just not good. I am surprised by the RT score.

That RT score seems to indicate that many people think it's solid, and while we don't have CS yet, audience scores on RT are pretty terrific for a slasher. I'm curious what reception is like once more people have seen it.

 

EDIT: Just refreshed RT, and yeah, it's at 94% Verified and All audience with 500+ and 1000+ ratings, respectively.

Edited March 10, 2023 by Dragoncaine

[wildphantom]

Looking forward to seeing Scream next week. I’ve liked to loved every single one of the films. I think their ability to adapt to changing post-modernism in films has been amazing over the years.  I actually thought the last one was the best since the original as a film. 

[Krissykins]

1 hour ago, eddyxx said:

Did the first Scream get a A?

 

59 minutes ago, ringedmortality said:

All Scream movies have gotten a score in the B range

Scream (1996) doesn’t have a cinema score as far as I’m aware? 

[SchumacherFTW]

2 hours ago, baumer said:

I'm personally kind of stunned at the preview number and the potential opening weekend number for scream part 6. The original three are all but gone with only Cox remaining, and now you have a franchise that is nearing its 30-year Mark in just a few years from now. And yet now it's set to have its highest opening weekend ever? It's incredibly impressive in my opinion.

That it's on the higher end for consistency for a horror franchise definitely works in its favour, I think the only one that seems like it has a negative lean of any kind is 3.

[Ronin46]

DL:

 

FRIDAY MIDDAY: Scream, if you wanna go to the movies. The horror franchise is definitely seeing a record opening in U.S./Canada with Scream VI set to make $42M which outstrips the previous domestic debut high of Scream 3 ($34.7M). Paramount is going to have a great weekend with the No. 1 movie, a big splashy world premiere tonight at SXSW with EOne’s Dungeons & Dragons and Top Gun: Maverick up for six Oscars including Best Picture on Sunday. The Radio Silence directed, Spyglass Media movie is looking at a Friday of $18.7M. The pic is booked at 3,675 theaters.

Second goes to MGM/UAR’s Creed III with around $25M at 4,007 theaters, -57% in weekend 2, getting the pic very close to the $100M mark. Wow, that will be just over ten days to the benchmark. Creed II crossed the century mark in 24 days while the first Creed took 38 days.

 

Third is Sony’s 65 at 3,405 theaters, a $4M Friday and a shot at $10M. The movie is rated PG-13.

Fourth is the fourth weekend of Disney/Marvel Studios’ Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania with $7M at 3,105 theaters, -45%, after a $1.8M Friday, and a running total of $198M by EOD Sunday.

Fifth is the third weekend of Universal’s Cocaine Bear at 3,196 theaters with a $1.7M Friday $6.2M 3-day, -44%, and running total $51.7M.

[Ronin46]

Lets hope the early Deadline lowball is in effect and the Friday number gets into the 19-20 range (inc previews)

[John Marston]

Harsh drop for Creed. This isn’t a leggy franchise despite reviews 

[Krissykins]

Scream 5 had a 3.82x previews to 3 day (but a holiday Sunday)

 

So 3.28 from significantly bigger previews with no holiday seems reasonable. 
 

Deadline have given 6 a better multiplier for the 3 day from Friday than 5 though, which doesn’t make much sense. Maybe $39-40m rather than $42m. 

[screambaby]

7 minutes ago, Ronin46 said:

Lets hope the early Deadline lowball is in effect and the Friday number gets into the 19-20 range (inc previews)

Midday estimate might get around 20 I think

[Ronin46]

3 minutes ago, John Marston said:

Harsh drop for Creed. This isn’t a leggy franchise despite reviews 

 

Seems like it will tap out at around 150-160M when I was thinking 170-180M was more likely following the OW. 

[John Marston]

Despite the holiday Scream 22 dropped 36.5% on Sunday so this one might actually may not drop harder on Sunday 

[ThomasNicole]

6 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

Scream 5 had a 3.82x previews to 3 day (but a holiday Sunday)

 

So 3.28 from significantly bigger previews with no holiday seems reasonable. 
 

Deadline have given 6 a better multiplier for the 3 day from Friday than 5 though, which doesn’t make much sense. Maybe $39-40m rather than $42m. 

Well reception seems way better for this one so maybe it can perform better during the weekend.

 

Releases on January and March can also add some variation.

 

(and i would bet their 42M OW is probably because they know the 18.7M friday is lowballed and possibly will be a bit higher than that)

Edited March 10, 2023 by ThomasNicole

[ThomasNicole]

18.7M would be good already but it's very early and Deadline always try the lowballed route, so unless the walkups are disappointing like yesterday (which was a normal THU to be fair), it can ended up 19-ish including previews.

[interiorgatordecorator]

avatar down to 1675 theaters, the window is closing for an expansion, whatever they do next will be a re-release

[Mulder]

8 minutes ago, interiorgatordecorator said:

avatar down to 1675 theaters, the window is closing for an expansion, whatever they do next will be a re-release

I really doubt that they'll rerelease Way of Water in any significant way. Much more likely that Disney's ready to put it on Disney+ whenever JC's contract/deal said it would be. 

[ThomasNicole]

Paramount seems excited 

 

 

 

 

[Krissykins]

24 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

Well reception seems way better for this one so maybe it can perform better during the weekend.

 

Releases on January and March can also add some variation.

 

(and i would bet their 42M OW is probably because they know the 18.7M friday is lowballed and possibly will be a bit higher than that)

Yeh, I’m also forgetting about the fact Scream 5 had to deal with Omicron too. 

[Nikostar]

1 hour ago, John Marston said:

Harsh drop for Creed. This isn’t a leggy franchise despite reviews 

It's Deadline early prediction

 

[CJohn]

Its DHD so I wont give it much cred for now. Waiting for a more reliable source.