THE SUPER MARIO BROS MOVIE WEEKEND THREAD

[filmlover]

20 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

About My Father (NO idea why this was on a Mario movie)

Got it before my showing too. Assumed it was because Sebastian Maniscalco is in Mario as well lol (and Lionsgate needing something as part of the valuable trailer real estate).

[Krissykins]

I’m not 100% certain The Meg 2 is coming this year. Wouldn’t be surprised if it was delayed. 

[screambaby]

3 hours ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

That is how we determine flops:).

 

Now underperformers can be flops, disappointments, or money makers.

 

But flops are all about the money, and barring a nice ending leg situation, DnD might edge Shazam b/c of the upfront spending...

I understand that but in my mind if a franchise  commic book movie can't beat cocaine bear domestically that worse imo lol

[Coldbird]

I want to hear that the people who decided that the Pokemon movie should be a dystopian/cyberpunk detective noirlike story have to say about that

[Borobudur]

1 hour ago, kayumanggi said:

$204,000 | PUSS IN BOOTS: THE LAST WISH

$147,000 | AVATAR: THE WAY OF WATER

$111,000 | ANT-MAN AND THE WASP: QUANTUMANIA

$204k of PIB is a full weekend figure but $147k and $111k for A2 and AM3 are just Friday-only numbers. For some reason, Disney didn't bother to report a weekend estimate this weekend. Probably feeling too defeated. 

[M37]

1 hour ago, keysersoze123 said:

One thing about Mario is looking at Sunday drop, I am not seeing a very leggy run. This week should be boosted but I am expecting a normal 2nd weekend drop and then a steady run. Probably looking at 450m finish at this point. 

$450M from here would be a pretty poor rub tbh. Looking at $240M+ for first full (holiday/SB inflated) week.  Minions netted 2.25x its first full (also holiday inflated) week, could see as low as 2x-ish here, but not expecting below that

[keysersoze123]

3 minutes ago, M37 said:

$450M from here would be a pretty poor rub tbh. Looking at $240M+ for first full (holiday/SB inflated) week.  Minions netted 2.25x its first full (also holiday inflated) week, could see as low as 2x-ish here, but not expecting below that

Possible. But after this week, the weekdays would be awful. So has to rely on great weekend holds. My number is a ballpark one rather than specific finish. I could see 500m if it avoids a 60% drop this weekend. That is 3x legs of 3 day weekend. That is great these days when movies hit streaming early. I hope the rumor of this hitting digital in early May is not true. 

 

[kayumanggi]

12 minutes ago, Borobudur said:

$204k of PIB is a full weekend figure but $147k and $111k for A2 and AM3 are just Friday-only numbers. For some reason, Disney didn't bother to report a weekend estimate this weekend. Probably feeling too defeated. 

 

Sorry about that. Didn't check. Well, bigger numbers for THE WAY OF WATER then. 😅

[TheFlatLannister]

1 hour ago, keysersoze123 said:

One thing about Mario is looking at Sunday drop, I am not seeing a very leggy run. This week should be boosted but I am expecting a normal 2nd weekend drop and then a steady run. Probably looking at 450m finish at this point. 

so if split remains 54/46 that would mean a $830M WW finish. It will open in Japan and Korea later so split should be around 50/50 for a $900M finish. That would be disappointing, I thought $1B was locked...

[kayumanggi]

2023 has passed 2B by the way.

[Skim Beeble]

delet

Edited April 10, 2023 by Skim Beeble

[Issac Newton]

6 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

so if split remains 54/46 that would mean a $830M WW finish. It will open in Japan and Korea later so split should be around 50/50 for a $900M finish. That would be disappointing, I thought $1B was locked...

Practically I would say not to expect much in Asia. Mon Drop 86% in China, 89% in Vietnam + PS Start in Korea is 870 (T-15). Japan will 50/50 for over Minions 2. Pretty much underperforming &below Minions 2 

[BadOlCatSylvester]

38 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

I’m not 100% certain The Meg 2 is coming this year. Wouldn’t be surprised if it was delayed. 

I imagine we'll have a trailer at CinemaCon. Warner is in insane amounts of debt, and they're putting all their muscle behind The Flash, so one can expect much shorter and cheaper marketing campaigns for most Warner tentpoles going forward.

[keysersoze123]

10 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

so if split remains 54/46 that would mean a $830M WW finish. It will open in Japan and Korea later so split should be around 50/50 for a $900M finish. That would be disappointing, I thought $1B was locked...

That is going too far. I expect OS legs especially Europe/AU and Latin America to be better than domestic. 1B is not a question even if Japan does something reasonable like 4-5B Yen and Korea does just 2M admits or something. 

[MattW]

Quantumania weekend thread was 60 pages. Mario thread ends up 82-83pp?

Quantumania 106.1

Mario needs 145.0-146.8 to fit.

 

So yeah, BOT coming in with even more predictive power.

 

Better get to 83 pages tho

[TheFlatLannister]

20 minutes ago, Issac Newton said:

Practically I would say not to expect much in Asia. Mon Drop 86% in China, 89% in Vietnam + PS Start in Korea is 870 (T-15). Japan will 50/50 for over Minions 2. Pretty much underperforming &below Minions 2 

So what are you expecting the final WW number to be?

[stuart360]

27 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

so if split remains 54/46 that would mean a $830M WW finish. It will open in Japan and Korea later so split should be around 50/50 for a $900M finish. That would be disappointing, I thought $1B was locked...

It may well hit $1B but it was never 'locked'.

 

I predicted 450-500mil US and 900-1bil WW after the Wednesday and Thursday numbers, and i'm sticking to it.

[Borobudur]

7 minutes ago, MattW said:

Quantumania weekend thread was 60 pages. Mario thread ends up 82-83pp?

Quantumania 106.1

Mario needs 145.0-146.8 to fit.

 

So yeah, BOT coming in with even more predictive power.

 

Better get to 83 pages tho

Tbf, Mario's weekend was a 5-days weekend thread

[Mickiland16]

21 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

That is going too far. I expect OS legs especially Europe/AU and Latin America to be better than domestic. 1B is not a question even if Japan does something reasonable like 4-5B Yen and Korea does just 2M admits or something. 

What do you the final DOM/INT ratio will be? Like 50/50? 45/55?

[keysersoze123]

12 minutes ago, Mickiland16 said:

What do you the final DOM/INT ratio will be? Like 50/50? 45/55?

Let us see where things go this week before honing in on final ratios. But I expect OS to finish higher than Domestic.