THE SUPER MARIO BROS MOVIE WEEKEND THREAD

[grey ghost]

11 minutes ago, kswiston said:

Wolf of Wall Street got a C and its highest drop in the first 8 weekends was 38%. Only two others were above 30%. Even for the winter holidays, those were good legs. 

 

Interesting.

 

 

[Jonwo]

51 minutes ago, YM! said:

Mario is looking like the king domestically and a good sign for animation this year (albeit this was clearly the kingpin). Thanks to the Plus damaging every Disney brand, Comcast is now the big name in animation at least until 2024/25 in which Disney could build themselves back with Wish, Elio, IO2 and possibly Zootopia 2.

 

Think there’s a solid chance that every Comcast animation does 100m+ domestic this year. 
Gillman: 30m five day/100m

Trolls: 50m/165m

Migration: 30/55/200

I do think people are slightly hyperbolic over Disney, they have had their rough patches and they will bounce back. It doesn't mean that their status as an animation studio is now beyond repair. 

[TheFlatLannister]

A $350M+ OW means a billie is locked. I don't see any other film challenging it, unless GOTG or The Flash are WOM monsters 

[TwoMisfits]

1 minute ago, Jonwo said:

I do think people are slightly hyperbolic over Disney, they have had their rough patches and they will bounce back. It doesn't mean that their status as an animation studio is now beyond repair. 

 

But I think it is clear.  In current family minds, there is a new animation king in town.

Just like when Pixar knocked off Disney, Illumination has now fully knocked off Pixar.

 

Illumination is the current animation king, and has 4 quadrant family buy-in (literally) right now.  Plan accordingly for BO 2023 and beyond.

[IronJimbo]

love seeing critics get exposed

[Jonwo]

Just now, TwoMisfits said:

 

But I think it is clear.  In current family minds, there is a new animation king in town.

Just like when Pixar knocked off Disney, Illumination has now fully knocked off Pixar.

 

Illumination is the current animation king, and has 4 quadrant family buy-in (literally) right now.  Plan accordingly for BO 2023 and beyond.

Illumination has knocked off Pixar a few times, it doesn't mean Pixar or WDAS is doomed in any way. 

 

[filmlover]

Lightyear and Strange World were clearly doomed movies that would've underperformed at any point in time. 

[Skim Beeble]

Will they report estimates in a couple of hours or just wait for actuals later

[TwoMisfits]

1 minute ago, Jonwo said:

Illumination has knocked off Pixar a few times, it doesn't mean Pixar or WDAS is doomed in any way. 

 

Disney wasn't doomed when Pixar knocked them off, either.  They just started to get lower BO numbers and love than Pixar.

[TheFlatLannister]

1 hour ago, stuart360 said:

There are posts in this threads tlaking about 1bil, someone even said its a lock. Talking about it being no.1 for the year, zero chance, ZERO.

 

Poeple also acting like it just had a 100mil Wednesday or something, and not a solid 32mil. This may be an animated movie but its about Mario, something a lot of adults like too.

 

I wont be at all surprised if this finishes in the 800mil WW range.

Dude, Mario is going to nearly double the previews of Avatar...It's a lot better than just "solid" 

 

Not a chance it has a 2.5x multiplier with no genre competition until June and strong WOM...With a $350M OW, the floor is absolutely $900M 

[grey ghost]

6 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

love seeing critics get exposed

 

They're useful when you're on the fence and don't want to waste time/money.

 

Honestly there are alot of rotten or mixed review movies I regret wasting time and money on.

 

Then there are movies I'm dead set on watching like Mario. 🍄 

[vafrow]

8 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

love seeing critics get exposed

A critics job is to watch a film and offer their opinion of the film. Not to predict the box office, nor to predict how others may feel about it.

 

 

[Issac Newton]

1 hour ago, stuart360 said:

I wont be at all surprised if this finishes in the 800mil WW range.

Suzume debuts from next week Outside Asia. Probably will hit some dollars given it's incredible reception across Asia. So, $800M Finish isn't out of question.

[Jonwo]

I have noticed that in the years that Illumination has a big hit, Disney does as well so I think this idea that Elemental and Wish will be flop under the shadow of Illumination is silly considering that Illumination doesn't have another film out until December.

[KP1025]

12 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

Disney wasn't doomed when Pixar knocked them off, either.  They just started to get lower BO numbers and love than Pixar.

 

WDAS bounced back pretty well after being dominated by Pixar in the 2000s. From a box office perspective, they were just as strong if not stronger in the 2010s. They're in a rough patch now, but I don't expect the slump experienced by either Pixar or WDAS to be permanent.

[CrashBandicoot81]

Are we playing New Super Mario Bros 2 now all of the sudden? 32M must be alot of coins.

Edited April 6, 2023 by CrashBandicoot81

[YM!]

8 minutes ago, Jonwo said:

I have noticed that in the years that Illumination has a big hit, Disney does as well so I think this idea that Elemental and Wish will be flop under the shadow of Illumination is silly considering that Illumination doesn't have another film out until December.

2022 

 

What Disney needs to do is be relentless in marketing again and give longer windows for the Plus. It’ll be very very very hard because of how big the Plus is and that it ate into a lot of it’s animation arms. Not saying Elemental or Wish won’t be hits (I think the latter could surprise) but they do have a battle uphill we can’t deny, especially because now competitors are less afraid to open against them.

[Hiccup23]

What number are we looking at today? $30M?

[vafrow]

3 minutes ago, Jonwo said:

I have noticed that in the years that Illumination has a big hit, Disney does as well so I think this idea that Elemental and Wish will be flop under the shadow of Illumination is silly considering that Illumination doesn't have another film out until December.

I think successful family films will definitely help build success in the genre.

 

Families stopped going during the pandemic, and studios have given them very little reason to return.

 

There should always be at least one recent family friendly movie in theatres at all times. But, we've had stretches with very little targetting kids.

 

People complain about the cost of going to the movies with a family, but I still find it far cheaper than a lot of other entertainment options.

 

A trip to a family restaurant costs far more than four movie tickets. For snacks, I literally carry in a backpack of water bottles and snacks for my kids and have never been stopped. I buy popcorn, but that's a choice, and I've also not been opposed to bringing in my own.

 

I know a lot of families that spent much of last year doing a lot of the big things they missed out on during the pandemic like travel and restaurants. This year, as economic worries mount, movies and other simple outings are the goal.

 

This summer should be good. There's a bit of everything for families. But then we get to a quiet fall again before everyone releases everything over November and December.

[IronJimbo]

24 minutes ago, vafrow said:

A critics job is to watch a film and offer their opinion of the film. Not to predict the box office, nor to predict how others may feel about it.

Well then rotten tomatoes is the problem.

 

If critics opinions are unique and only meant to be their opinion and not predicting how others feel, why does rotten tomatoes aggregate them?