WGA/SAGAFTRA Strike Discussion Thread | SAG Ratifies Contract

[Porthos]

12 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Ultimately prices are dictated by what people are willing to pay.  Tempted again to say something like "no more, no less", but it is slightly more complicated than that, but only just.

 

 

At the risk of going off-topic, but to bring up a supporting piece of evidence, even with inflation one can see this by what went down in the egg market in the US earlier this year and late last year.

 

As a quick background summary, thanks to global supply chains and some avian flu problems there was a real and honest-to-goodness shock to the egg market.  

 

Problem was, more than a few national suppliers jacked up their prices faaaaaaaaar beyond what was reasonable.  Maybe they were using inflation as cover.  Maybe they were using avian flu as cover.  Maybe they let their greed run rampant.  Maybe folks inside the egg industry looked at everyone else in the egg business doing it and decided they should cash in while the getting was good.

 

Either way, prices went through the roof, but because enough people were still buying them (if as mad as a wet hen while doing it) they were able to get away with it in the short term before market realities have slowly forced the prices back down.

 

So... yeah.  Don't buy the "costs will be passed on to the consumer" grouse in this particular case as A] more complicated than that and B] if people are willing to pay more for a product you'd better believe the price is gonna get there, one way or the other.

 

Edited September 23, 2023 by Porthos

[poweranimals]

5 hours ago, BoxOfficeFangrl said:

Grace and Frankie got 7 seasons on Netflix: if no one was watching it, then they have bigger problems with their business model than figuring out how to calculate residuals.

 

 

I know. I'm specifically talking about the content that's being removed due to not enough people watching.

Edited September 23, 2023 by poweranimals

[Porthos]

 

Quote

There is no word yet on a potential deal, but insiders with knowledge of ongoings in the room say there is momentum on both sides to find a resolution that will end the 144-day writers strike. Friday’s talks are said to have begun at approximately 11 a.m. PT

 

Multiple sources confirmed to Variety that, as of publication time, the WGA’s and Alliance of Motion Picture and Television Producers’s (AMPTP) negotiation committee members were still in talks at the table in Sherman Oaks, alongside four top entertainment CEOs who have spent three days in the room now: Disney’s Bob Iger, Warner Bros. Discovery’s David Zaslav, NBCUniversal’s Donna Langley and Netflix’s Ted Sarandos.

 

It is understood the four CEOs in the room held a call with some of their counterparts at other companies at some point Friday.

 

The WGA has been on strike since May 2. Actors guild SAG-AFTRA joined the writers union on the picket lines July 14 following its own inability to reach a new contract with the studios.

 

Key points that have prevented the WGA and AMPTP from inking an updated deal include disagreements on generative AI in the creative process, mini writers rooms and streaming residuals.

 

[SpiderByte]

Late is good. Late means serious.

[filmlover]

I just want to know what they're having for dinner. Whichever food joint is serving them should capitalize on a star moment!

[Ryan Reynolds]

 

[Porthos]

31 minutes ago, Ryan Reynolds said:

 

 

You know, I think I'm actually for realz cautiously optimistic after reading that.

 

Let quote a part and say why:

 

Quote

Talks went well into the night on the third day that union negotiators met with a group of top company leaders including Disney’s Bob Iger, Warner Bros. Discovery’s David Zaslav, NBCUniversal’s Donna Langley and Netflix’s Ted Sarandos at the Alliance of Motion Picture and Television Producers offices in Sherman Oaks. The meeting began at 11 am PT and concluded by 8:45 pm, according to sources.

 

The sides made “lots of progress and [engaged in] good faith but they need more time,” said one management-side source. “Everyone’s fully engaged but [it’s] unclear what exact plans are.”

 

Negotiators had made progress in the previous days of talks, according to studio-side sources, but the mood was soured on the management side late on Thursday, when the union allegedly came back with asks on issues that the studios believed had already been settled. “We all got mad,” said one studio-side source, though their sense on Friday was that both sides were intent on wrapping up a deal and were moving through the hiccup. As the negotiations stretched on on Friday, CEOs spent long periods waiting around in their caucus room and killing time, said studio-side insiders familiar with the proceedings.

 

It's long been a running joke (or even not a joke) about how much the Trades have been relying on studio sources/carrying their water.  For THR to blatantly, and repeatedly, say that this is coming from the studios is a welcome step in a lack of "negotiating through the press".  Also liked that they added "allegedly" to the so-called WGA sandbag from Thur.

 

Just lots of little "tells" along those lines that the AMPTP is negotiating for real and not just dictating terms, if you will.  Article painting the WGA as more upbeat, if slight, than the AMPTP, that sort of thing.

 

Now, as @Plain Old Tele would be sure to point out, this is all tea leaf reading as we don't really know anything.  And some stupid studio source is likely to try to feed some bullshit in the next few hours to a reporter that is likely to light up social media over the weekend.

 

But I have to say reading an article like this is one of the first real signs I've had that this might be going in a constructive direction.

 

(of course, "if 'ifs and buts were candy and nuts'" and all that, but I am.... reasonably encouraged)

((not very encouraged, mind.  But def not discouraged at the mo — which might more or less be the same thing))

Edited September 23, 2023 by Porthos

[Ryan Reynolds]

 

[grim22]

2 minutes ago, Ryan Reynolds said:

 

Encouraging. Maybe they get terms agreed by Tom Kippur.

[Ryan Reynolds]

i'm expecting a deal by midweek, neither side seems to want to leave negotiations

Edited September 23, 2023 by Ryan Reynolds

[eddyxx]

11 hours ago, SpiderByte said:

 

My former room mate went to high school with her here in Charlotte, nc. I have nothing to add, I just like pointing out when I know some one who knows a b list celebrity.

Edited September 23, 2023 by eddyxx

[eddyxx]

6 hours ago, WittyUsername said:

I don’t understand how the issue over residuals is in anyway complicated. Residuals should just be directly proportional to how successful a show is on whatever service it’s on. You’re really telling me all these massive corporation can’t afford that without raising their prices by 500%? 

In order to do that they’d have to tell their stock holders just how unsuccessful all the other shows they spend millions on are.

[Porthos]

18 minutes ago, eddyxx said:

In order to do that they’d have to tell their stock holders just how unsuccessful all the other shows they spend millions on are.

 

You know, I don't even know if that's really completely it as Nielsen data, while not free and not perfect, isn't exactly a state secret for paying customers.  We hoi polloi might only get Top Tens, but Nielsen is measuring streaming data through their sampling panels and selling it to those who wish to buy it. Not perfectly and I am unsure as to how much of streaming catalogues they are actually covering — for instance just how much is Nielsen monitoring the "acquired" (ie pre-existing/originated on cable programming) category of content — but it ain't nothing.

 

Just tend to think they're collectively control freaks and after finally... FINALLY being able to lock down information about a  media source to a large degree — maybe for the first time — they're loathe to give up on one of their Holy Grails.

 

Sure investors probably wouldn't like seeing/confirming how little some shows actually get in eyeballs, but I just think it's more Control of Flow of Information Equals Power and they really really really don't want to give that power up.

Edited September 23, 2023 by Porthos

[lab276]

If the strike is resolved in a week, what are the odds Dune 2 goes back to November?

[Porthos]

9 minutes ago, lab276 said:

If the strike is resolved in a week, what are the odds Dune 2 goes back to November?

 

Very little, IMO.  For one thing, even if there is a tentative agreement with the WGA Negotiating Committee, might not be apparent right away if the rank-and-file likes it.

 

More over, still have the SAG-AFTRA strike to settle, and even at warp speed negotiations that'd probably take a week or two of the sort of intensive negotiations we've seen this past week with the WGA.  And then we have to see if the SAG-AFTRA rank-and-file likes that agreement.

 

Sure, if there aren't ***LOUD NOISES*** immediately rallied against either mooted deal and the mood seems rather conciliatory among writers and actors, they maaaaaybe folks think that the votes to ratify are formalities.  But if there's a real chance either deal gets nixed, I tend to think moving films back up the calendar doesn't have much of a chance of happening.  If it had any chance at all even in the best of all possible worlds (ie ones without complications)

 

NB:  Also is the "minor" matter of rewriting/renegotiating contracts again with various theater chains and with the time frame we're talking about here, I don't see that as being a fairly palatable decision to make.

 

Could be wrong, natch.  Just really really doubt it.

Edited September 23, 2023 by Porthos

[lab276]

1 minute ago, Porthos said:

 

Very little, IMO.  For one thing, even if there is a tentative agreement with the WGA Negotiating Committee, might not be apparent right away if the rank-and-file likes it.

 

More over, still have the SAG-AFTRA strike to settle, and even at warp speed negotiations that'd probably take a week or two of the sort of intensive negotiations we've seen this past week with the WGA.  And then we have to see if the SAG-AFTRA rank-and-file likes that agreement.

 

That's a shame. The rest of the year and tbh most of next year looks dire in terms of releases.

[darkangelfire]

7 hours ago, WittyUsername said:

I don’t understand how the issue over residuals is in anyway complicated. Residuals should just be directly proportional to how successful a show is on whatever service it’s on. You’re really telling me all these massive corporation can’t afford that without raising their prices by 500%? 

Because unlike before with ad dollars there is no correlation between how successful a show is with how much money the studios receive, with friends they were getting paid millions for ads and it was easy to work out syndication value, now if  a shoes popular that tells me nothing unless you could prove that millions signed up for the service specifically for that show only.

[The GOAT]

7 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

This is commonly said any time labor makes any gains and...

 

You know, I don't think it's true. I'm tempted to say "it isn't true at all", but I'll preface instead by saying: Maaaaybe at the edges at most.

 

Ultimately prices are dictated by what people are willing to pay.  Tempted again to say something like "no more, no less", but it is slightly more complicated than that, but only just.

 

When it comes right down to it a small increase in labor costs isn't passed onto the consumer if the consumer is already paying at the price point they feel like buying at.  

 

What I do agree with is that less things might be made or structured in such a way that they're cheaper overall.  But it seems to me that this fight isn't so much over making more pies, but how the pies are split (and how the pies are made, as well).

 

So while I get what you're saying I tend to think you're not right at all.  Price increases come because (enough) people are willing to pay them.  One look at the ticket prices for high profile collegiate sports, which even with tons of money going to various boondoggles, is nowhere near the amount of money being spent on pro sports.

 

If prices were going to go up, they would have gone up anyway.  As such I'd rather the folks making the product get those benefits than them disappearing somewhere into higher ends of the corporate structure.

Studios will be cutting productions,  and hiking their prices to pay for it. As well as constantly changing their catalogue

[Porthos]

39 minutes ago, The GOAT said:

Studios will be cutting productions,  and hiking their prices to pay for it. As well as constantly changing their catalogue

 

And they wouldn't be doing that anyway?  I tend to think they would be given the state of the streaming landscape (not to mention broadcast/cable).  Add in more than a few mergers and services going kaput as well.

 

This is one of the reasons why I'm not that sympathetic with the "get a small amount of gains this round of talks and go for more later" argument because who the hell knows how bad the streaming landscape will be in a few years along with the relative power of the two guilds in question.

 

Besides, as I've said more than once, this really is a structural fight as opposed to a pure dollars and cents one (though obvs it's that as well) and... Well, better to try to get a structural fight settled when a market is in transition than try to fight an uphill battle in a more settled landscape.  Sure the cards you get dealt in 3/4/5 years might be better.  They could also be a hell of a lot worse.  

 

To put it another way, the guilds know how much relative power they have now. They have much less of an idea of how much power they'll have to negotiate in future years.  A classic case of "bird in the hand", again IMO.

[Torontofan]

If streaming gets to expensive, many people will switch to android boxes or IPtv boxes.