WGA/SAGAFTRA Strike Discussion Thread | SAG Ratifies Contract

[Plain Old Tele]

 

[Plain Old Tele]

 

[Ryan Reynolds]

 

Edited June 4, 2023 by Ryan Reynolds

[Goldenhour36]

2 hours ago, Ryan Reynolds said:

 

 

That's great as we can probably expect a deal from WGA and the actors guild in the upcoming weeks!

[Porthos]

2 hours ago, Ryan Reynolds said:

 

 

[Jonwo]

I'd probably say SAG-AFTRA will come to a deal before the WGA.

[Plain Old Tele]

tbh at the moment this seems to muddy the waters even more. There’s definitely some disgruntled DGA membership out there and it remains to be seen whether the agreement is ratified. (I’d be surprised if it wasn’t, but there’s less harmony this time than usual). And while in previous times the WGA and/or SAG would usually take the scraps from the DGA agreement that doesn’t seem to be the case this time around. But we’ll see. 

[filmlover]

SAG-AFTRA going on strike would essentially put the DGA on a de facto strike because you need actors to actually keep the cameras rolling.

[Plain Old Tele]

SAG isn’t messing around. 
 

 

[Eric the Fall Guy]

We're really seeing the entire downfall of Hollywood just like that...good.

[Plain Old Tele]

5 minutes ago, Eric 2099 said:

We're really seeing the entire downfall of Hollywood just like that...good.

Well… hopefully not. 🤔

[AMC Theaters Enjoyer]

19 minutes ago, Eric 2099 said:

We're really seeing the entire downfall of Hollywood just like that...good.

https://youtu.be/yrUeGEF2wMY

[Cappoedameron]

SAG joining is the only way this will get resolved quickly. If it was just the Writers guild it would take months. SAG joining in arms likely means this is resolved by the end of summer. 

[Porthos]

So I'm not sure this will be easy to find, but I'm curious about how good the 48% response rate really is (okay, 47.69% pedants) and how it compares to prior SAG(-AFTRA) authorizations.

 

Problem is, there hasn't been a major SAG(-AFTRA) strike in decades and so I'm having difficulty finding that out. 

 

There was one against commercial agencies back in 2000 (and a shorter lived one back in 1988).

 

Not counting the 14 hour strike in 1986, have to go alllll the way back to 1980 to see SAG (and AFTRA which was separate at the time) going to blows with the AMPTP proper.  

 

FWIW, the 1980 strike lasted three months, so there is precedent for this not being resolved quickly.  It's kinda like a war in some respects.  It's either over Very Quickly ("OH SHIT, Y'ALL MEAN BUSINESS AFTER ALL") or it can turn into a protracted War of Attrition ("We've already crossed the Rubicon, now it's time to make the other side blink first").

 

And I'm not entirely sure the situation isn't too dissimilar from 1980 where the conditions on the ground can potentially lead to a long drawn out stalemate to see which side caves relents first.

 

(If this even gets to a SAG-AFTRA strike that is, as that isn't guaranteed)

Edited June 6, 2023 by Porthos

[dudalb]

19 hours ago, Eric 2099 said:

We're really seeing the entire downfall of Hollywood just like that...good.

Holllywood is not going under, neither is the Capitalis System as a whole. Capitalsitlm has beein on it's last legs for a over a 100 years now.

[Plain Old Tele]

1 hour ago, Porthos said:

So I'm not sure this will be easy to find, but I'm curious about how good the 48% response rate really is (okay, 47.69% pedants) and how it compares to prior SAG(-AFTRA) authorizations.

 

Problem is, there hasn't been a major SAG(-AFTRA) strike in decades and so I'm having difficulty finding that out. 

 

There was one against commercial agencies back in 2000 (and a shorter lived one back in 1988).

 

Not counting the 14 hour strike in 1986, have to go alllll the way back to 1980 to see SAG (and AFTRA which was separate at the time) going to blows with the AMPTP proper.  

 

FWIW, the 1980 strike lasted three months, so there is precedent for this not being resolved quickly.  It's kinda like a war in some respects.  It's either over Very Quickly ("OH SHIT, Y'ALL MEAN BUSINESS AFTER ALL") or it can turn into a protracted War of Attrition ("We've already crossed the Rubicon, now it's time to make the other side blink first").

 

And I'm not entirely sure the situation isn't too dissimilar from 1980 where the conditions on the ground can potentially lead to a long drawn out stalemate to see which side caves relents first.

 

(If this even gets to a SAG-AFTRA strike that is, as that isn't guaranteed)

48% is enormous for SAG (so is the 97%). Not a perfect comparison but for their last contract ratification, they got 27% turnout and 74% voted yes. 
 

Anyway, if this gets to a SAG strike, I hope the studios enjoy having no actors promoting Barbie, Mission Impossible, etc etc. 

[Porthos]

Just now, Plain Old Tele said:

48% is enormous for SAG (so is the 97%). Not a perfect comparison but for their last contract ratification, they got 27% turnout and 74% voted yes. 

 

Exactly what I wanted know, thanks. 👍

[Cap]

1 hour ago, Porthos said:

 

Exactly what I wanted know, thanks. 👍

For reference:  

 

In a close race, Drescher defeated Modine 16,958 votes to 15,371, while Fisher beat Rapp 18,547 to 13,593. A total of 122,154 ballots were mailed and 32,362 were returned (26.49%). Turnout this year was considerably higher than two years ago, when only 21.2% of the members voted

[filmlover]

3 hours ago, Plain Old Tele said:

Anyway, if this gets to a SAG strike, I hope the studios enjoy having no actors promoting Barbie, Mission Impossible, etc etc. 

The contract doesn't expire until June 30, when the marketing for these movies and the rest of July's major titles will already be in full swing. Will the potential dueling star-studded premieres for Barbie and Oppenheimer on the same night be in potential tragedy when/if SAG ends up striking? Most likely, but until that scenario ends up happening (or, to be more accurate, if it does), the show, as they say, must go on. Especially when the promo circuit is already weakened due to the WGA strike and most of these movies for almost the next two months already having no shortage of awareness means they have little to worry about.

 

If anything, the movies most likely to feel the impact are the August releases, but given how weak that month already looks this year (not a single movie guaranteed to hit $100M total like the rest of the summer is full of), not sure how much of a difference the promo circuit would make for movies with clearly limited ceilings. A potential SAG strike, should one occur, would be happening at just the right time as we head into the dog days of summer as far as movie promo is concerned (film production, on the other hand, is an obviously different story).

[Plain Old Tele]

22 minutes ago, filmlover said:

The contract doesn't expire until June 30, when the marketing for these movies and the rest of July's major titles will already be in full swing. Will the potential dueling star-studded premieres for Barbie and Oppenheimer on the same night be in potential tragedy when/if SAG ends up striking? Most likely, but until that scenario ends up happening (or, to be more accurate, if it does), the show, as they say, must go on. Especially when the promo circuit is already weakened due to the WGA strike and most of these movies for almost the next two months already having no shortage of awareness means they have little to worry about.

 

If anything, the movies most likely to feel the impact are the August releases, but given how weak that month already looks this year (not a single movie guaranteed to hit $100M total like the rest of the summer is full of), not sure how much of a difference the promo circuit would make for movies with clearly limited ceilings. A potential SAG strike, should one occur, would be happening at just the right time as we head into the dog days of summer as far as movie promo is concerned (film production, on the other hand, is an obviously different story).

I mean, I’m sure Paramount is thrilled by the possibility not to have Tom Cruise promoting their movie in the final run-up to release. And not having Margot Robbie and Ryan Gosling to glam things up as Barbie hits their big push too.

 

Timing might not be the absolute *worst* for movies like that but it’s not exactly ideal for the studios either.