Weekdays Thread (4/17-20)

[JohnnyGossamer]

3 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Nice. That's 10% better than what I had.

Would that mean you have/had SMBM at just under 5M for Monday?

[filmscholar]

Oh lord, let's not start the "Crumbling" Jokes, lol.   Mario is cleary playing even better on the weekends after that unbelievable 2nd weekend drop we just witnessed.   It seems weekdays will be a little softer but again weekends will explode.   Also has there been a movie in recent memory the critics got so wrong?   I mean 58% isn't that an "F" grade in school?   Are they crazy?   Mario Bros as a video game movie worked on every single level,   Even as a grown man who the movie wasn't targeted too enjoyed it very much.   All I could think about was my late 80's early 90's self watching this film.   

[spizzer]

4 hours ago, superduperm said:

Okay call it copium… but after drawing as many trends around Sonic 2 (our best comp) I actually think this isn’t just an okay or good number, it’s an excellent number and points to a really high 3rd weekend.

 

Sonic 2 dropped 29% on Sunday and then 83.2% on Monday to 810k. It then grossed 11.5M for the weekend.

 

Mario dropped 22.7% on Sunday and then if this holds it would be 82.4% on Monday to 5.35M. I’m not even going to post the 3rd weekend number you get with the Sonic 2 multiplier because it’s mind-blowing (and probably won’t be quite that high—but still it locks up $55M IMO and makes $60M very plausible).

 

3 hours ago, ViewerAnon said:

 

I will for funsies!

Friday: $16.7M

Saturday: $35.7M

Friday: $23.5M

 

3-Day: $75.9M

 

At which point the forum explodes.

Oh just you wait 😉

[JohnnyGossamer]

1 hour ago, filmscholar said:

Oh lord, let's not start the "Crumbling" Jokes, lol.   Mario is cleary playing even better on the weekends after that unbelievable 2nd weekend drop we just witnessed.   It seems weekdays will be a little softer but again weekends will explode.   Also has there been a movie in recent memory the critics got so wrong?   I mean 58% isn't that an "F" grade in school?   Are they crazy?   Mario Bros as a video game movie worked on every single level,   Even as a grown man who the movie wasn't targeted too enjoyed it very much.   All I could think about was my late 80's early 90's self watching this film.   

https://screenrant.com/highest-grossing-movies-rated-rotten-rotten-tomatoes/

 

Jurassic World Dominion has a 29% at RT and grossed 1.0B+ WW.

Jurassic World Fallen Kingdom has a 47% and grossed 1.3B+ WW.

Minions has a 55% at RT and grossed 1.16B+ WW.

Despicable Me 3 has a 59% at RT and grossed 1.03B+ WW.

Transformers Age of Extinction has a 17% at RT and grossed 1.1B WW.

Transformers Dark of the Moon has a 35% at RT and grossed 1.12B+ WW.

Lion King 2019 has a 52% at RT and grossed 1.65B+ WW.

Aladdin 2019 has a 57% at RT and grossed 1.05B+ WW.

Pirates On Stranger Tides has a 33% at RT and grossed 1.05B+ WW.

 

Given all of those movies made mint, they got all of those wrong too, right? This doesn't account for all the films that are in the 60% to 70% range at RT that did huge numbers at the box office as that range isn't all that different than Super Mario Bros. 58%. Given you think 58% is such a poor rating, I imagine you'd think anything in that 60% to 70% is pretty poor too. I didn't look for those ones though. I'm pretty sure Jurassic World is just over/under 70% at RT and grossed 1.67B+ WW for an additional example in that 60% to 70% range.

 

Illumination Animation has quite a few in the 55% to 75% at RT that either did huge box office numbers (Despicable Me 2, Despicable 3, Minions, Rise of Gru, Secret Life of Pets, Sing) or not quite as huge but had extremely impressive legs (Sing 2). Super Mario Bros. falls in line with those other Illumination breakouts with mixed or mixed to positive reviews but is a MUCH bigger brand than any of those and we're seeing that in the huge numbers.

Edited April 18, 2023 by JohnnyGossamer

[filmscholar]

1 hour ago, JohnnyGossamer said:

https://screenrant.com/highest-grossing-movies-rated-rotten-rotten-tomatoes/

 

Jurassic World Dominion has a 29% at RT and grossed 1.0B+ WW.

Jurassic World Fallen Kingdom has a 47% and grossed 1.3B+ WW.

Minions has a 55% at RT and grossed 1.16B+ WW.

Despicable Me 3 has a 59% at RT and grossed 1.03B+ WW.

Transformers Age of Extinction has a 17% at RT and grossed 1.1B WW.

Transformers Dark of the Moon has a 35% at RT and grossed 1.12B+ WW.

Lion King 2019 has a 52% at RT and grossed 1.65B+ WW.

Aladdin 2019 has a 57% at RT and grossed 1.05B+ WW.

Pirates On Stranger Tides has a 33% at RT and grossed 1.05B+ WW.

 

Given all of those movies made mint, they got all of those wrong too, right? This doesn't account for all the films that are in the 60% to 70% range at RT that did huge numbers at the box office as that range isn't all that different than Super Mario Bros. 58%. Given you think 58% is such a poor rating, I imagine you'd think anything in that 60% to 70% is pretty poor too. I didn't look for those ones though. I'm pretty sure Jurassic World is just over/under 70% at RT and grossed 1.67B+ WW for an additional example in that 60% to 70% range.

 

Illumination Animation has quite a few in the 55% to 75% at RT that either did huge box office numbers (Despicable Me 2, Despicable 3, Minions, Rise of Gru, Secret Life of Pets, Sing) or not quite as huge but had extremely impressive legs (Sing 2). Super Mario Bros. falls in line with those other Illumination breakouts with mixed or mixed to positive reviews but is a MUCH bigger brand than any of those and we're seeing that in the huge numbers.

 

Good analysis.  I was speaking more in terms of the Audience score verses the Critical Score not necessarily low scores being hits. Which Mario still stands at 96%.   But yes I do feel 58% is rather average critical rating.   I guess that would be a "3 stars" or so.  

[JustLurking]

2 hours ago, filmscholar said:

Oh lord, let's not start the "Crumbling" Jokes, lol.   Mario is cleary playing even better on the weekends after that unbelievable 2nd weekend drop we just witnessed.   It seems weekdays will be a little softer but again weekends will explode.   Also has there been a movie in recent memory the critics got so wrong?   I mean 58% isn't that an "F" grade in school?   Are they crazy?   Mario Bros as a video game movie worked on every single level,   Even as a grown man who the movie wasn't targeted too enjoyed it very much.   All I could think about was my late 80's early 90's self watching this film.   

The critics' job is not to predict how audiences will like a film, so saying critics got a film "wrong" because audiences liked it is a rather silly proposition.

Edited April 18, 2023 by JustLurking

[JohnnyGossamer]

26 minutes ago, filmscholar said:

 

Good analysis.  I was speaking more in terms of the Audience score verses the Critical Score not necessarily low scores being hits. Which Mario still stands at 96%.   But yes I do feel 58% is rather average critical rating.   I guess that would be a "3 stars" or so.  

Regarding Audience % v. Critic % at RT... Another Illumination one comes to mind... Sing 2 is just over/under 70% at RT with critics but has a 98% audience (even higher than Super Mario Bros.).

 

Rise of Gru, also Illumination, while not as drastic is something like 70% at RT with ciritics but has, I think, a 90%+ audience score. Secret Life of Pets 2 is a 60% at RT with critics but has a 90%+ audience score as well. So, with that, seems critics are pretty mixed on many/most Illumination movies while audiences generally love half of the Illumination movies.

 

I think the other Illumination movies are much closer critcs v. audience % but the audience is still higher in most cases as well. Secret Life of Pets, Grinch, Minions, Despicable Me 3 are the only four that have a higher critic score than audience score at RT.

 

In digging through this the most interesting thing to standout... Since RT switched to Verified Audience Scores... Audience Scores have improved enormously for Illumination flicks. Lotta happy parents with some nice Verified Audience scores for Illumination movies since the switch to Verified in 2019. See below... Those are the only Illumination with Verified Audience scores.

 

MOVIE - CRITICS - AUDIENCE

Secret Life of Pets 2 - 60% - 90%

Sing 2 - 72% - 98%

Rise of Gru - 70% - 89%

Super Mario Bros. - 58% - 96%

Edited April 18, 2023 by JohnnyGossamer

[M37]

1 hour ago, JohnnyGossamer said:

MOVIE - CRITICS - AUDIENCE

Secret Life of Pets 2 - 60% - 90%

Sing 2 - 72% - 98%

Rise of Gru - 70% - 89%

Super Mario Bros. - 58% - 96%

Let’s be honest: illumination’s humor in their moves tends to be on the juvenile side, which can both turn off adult critics while still be entertaining for family audiences. They’re just grading a different scale: whether something is “good” vs “entertaining” (both of which are subjective anyway)

 

The only time they really veered too far into that teenage boy realm was the first Minions, which I believe is the only major ILL hit to not have a high audience score 

 

[screambaby]

4 hours ago, filmscholar said:

Oh lord, let's not start the "Crumbling" Jokes, lol.   Mario is cleary playing even better on the weekends after that unbelievable 2nd weekend drop we just witnessed.   It seems weekdays will be a little softer but again weekends will explode.   Also has there been a movie in recent memory the critics got so wrong?   I mean 58% isn't that an "F" grade in school?   Are they crazy?   Mario Bros as a video game movie worked on every single level,   Even as a grown man who the movie wasn't targeted too enjoyed it very much.   All I could think about was my late 80's early 90's self watching this film.   

My crumbling comment was purely sarcastic...others seem to be serious lol

Edited April 18, 2023 by screambaby

[M37]

I'm not sure how much of these "crumbling" or "terrible" comments are in jest, but just to repeat what I put in the weekend thread:

Quote

Sonic dropped 88% from Sat to Mon on post-Easter week, Bad Guys -88.7%.  That’s good baseline expectation IMO, around $4.7M; won’t be surprised with up to $5M, but anything higher than that points to a strong hold in week 3

If the $5.35 number holds, that would be -86.4%, somewhere in between pure animated films and live action for this time of year. Can make a case for a 3rd weekend anywhere between like $55 and $75 million off that Monday, but time will tell

 

[screambaby]

1 minute ago, M37 said:

I'm not sure how much of these "crumbling" or "terrible" comments are in jest, but just to repeat what I put in the weekend thread:

If the $5.35 number holds, that would be -86.4%, somewhere in between pure animated films and live action for this time of year. Can make a case for a 3rd weekend anywhere between like $55 and $75 million off that Monday, but time will tell

 

For future reference anytime i say 'crumbling' I'm joking.

If I'm serious I'll say 'crashing' 

Edited April 18, 2023 by screambaby

[grey ghost]

When over 40% of critics refuse to recommend a movie that 96% of the audience enjoyed then it kind of suggest that a large chunk of critics are out of touch.

 

Who watches Super Mario and concludes that families should avoid it? It's like assuming people would prefer asparagus over cotton candy at a carnival.

[superduperm]

10 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

When over 40% of critics refuse to recommend a movie that 96% of the audience enjoyed then it kind of suggest that a large chunk of critics are out of touch.

 

Who watches Super Mario and concludes that families should avoid it? It's like assuming people would prefer asparagus over cotton candy at a carnival.

Yeah even of the examples Johnny listed, 38% is the biggest gap between critics and audience. I don’t recall a signature film that has had a gap like that. Even Rise of Skywalker was 36%.

 

At the same time, the RT verified audience rating is pretty skewed now. May as well see it as a scale of 80 to 100 instead of 0 to 100 because it’s difficult for a film to get anything below that range.

Edited April 18, 2023 by superduperm

[Krissykins]

Mario could literally stop making money today and it’d be a huge hit 😂

[PlatnumRoyce]

3 hours ago, JohnnyGossamer said:

https://screenrant.com/highest-grossing-movies-rated-rotten-rotten-tomatoes/

 

Given all of those movies made mint, they got all of those wrong too, right? This doesn't account for all the films that are in the 60% to 70% range at RT that did huge numbers at the box office as that range isn't all that different than Super Mario Bros. 58%. Given you think 58% is such a poor rating, I imagine you'd think anything in that 60% to 70% is pretty poor too.  Illumination Animation has quite a few in the 55% to 75% at RT that either did huge box office numbers (Despicable Me 2, Despicable 3, Minions, Rise of Gru, Secret Life of Pets, Sing) or not quite as huge but had extremely impressive legs (Sing 2). Super Mario Bros. falls in line with those other Illumination breakouts with mixed or mixed to positive reviews but is a MUCH bigger brand than any of those and we're seeing that in the huge numbers.

 

I don't want to dispute any of this but I also do think it bears noting that yes, this is a genuinely bad rating.  if you throw in a ">50 million DBO" filter for 21st century animated films, Super Mario places something like 100th out of ~140 in RT and ~125th in Metascore (I grabbed a pre-pandemic dataset so numbers could raise/fall after those are added in). 

 

If you're a 10th percentile score, you're doing poorly relative to peers. 

[JohnnyGossamer]

10 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

When over 40% of critics refuse to recommend a movie that 96% of the audience enjoyed then it kind of suggest that a large chunk of critics are out of touch.

 

Who watches Super Mario and concludes that families should avoid it? It's like assuming people would prefer asparagus over cotton candy at a carnival.

Meh... As shown earlier, it's pretty close with other Illumination movies. This isn't just a Mario thing... Using your same metric in terms of % of critics that didn't recommend... Super Mario Bros. Movie (42%), Secret Life of Pets 2 (40%), Sing 2 (28%) and Rise of Gru (30%). I guess you could maybe assume what you're saying. I just don't think critics overall even when hundreds chime in with reviews are huge supporters of Illumination's stuff. It's not like any of these were panned though. All of them have impressive audience scores. Sing 2's audience score is even higher than Mario's.... Or, are you saying that given the high audience scores for all four movies, all 4 movies should've scored a 80%+ on RT with critics simply because audiences generally ate them up?

 

If I recall, even with the impressive audience scores, Secret Life of Pets 2 actually disappointed at box office. It came in well under the first Secret Life of Pets. So that audience score is a little suspect to me as in I'd have expected it to have done or even much better at the box office as follow up to big time grosser given SLoP2 has a 90% audience score. It didn't though.

 

Guess I'm not sure it's that simple.

 

[JustLurking]

how are people still whining about the critic score 2 weeks into the run

 

if you just want the critic score to validate the audience score and they are "wrong" every time it doesn't then we might as well remove critics altogether

[JohnnyGossamer]

11 minutes ago, superduperm said:

Yeah even of the examples Johnny listed, 38% is the biggest gap between critics and audience. I don’t recall a signature film that has had a gap like that. Even Rise of Skywalker was 36%.

 

At the same time, the RT verified audience rating is pretty skewed now. May as well see it as a scale of 80 to 100 instead of 0 to 100 because it’s difficult for a film to get anything below that range.

Venom has a HUGE gap. There are others too. I was focusing on recent 1B+ WW earners and Illumination movies because Super Mario is is part of both clubs. Venom is 30% critics and 80% audience. There are others too I just remember them off hand.

[PlatnumRoyce]

10 minutes ago, superduperm said:

Yeah even of the examples Johnny listed, 38% is the biggest gap between critics and audience. I don’t recall a signature film that has had a gap like that. Even Rise of Skywalker was 36%.

 

At the same time, the RT verified audience rating is pretty skewed now. May as well see it as a scale of 80 to 100 instead of 0 to 100 because it’s difficult for a film to get anything below that range.

If you can get a B+ cinemascore, you're not getting much below an 80 on vRT% and 3 transformers movies received sub-20% critical praise but the lowest cinemascore grade was a B+.  Explicitly adding vRT% (which, yeah, has skews to adjust for) doesn't really add new insights to this discrepency, it's just displayed in a readily accessible way.

[JohnnyGossamer]

1 minute ago, JustLurking said:

how are people still whining about the critic score 2 weeks into the run

 

if you just want the critic score to validate the audience score and they are "wrong" every time it doesn't then we might as well remove critics altogether

My posts have been longwinded but this is gist of what I'm getting at with them. It's especially odd given Mario is at 58% which isn't all that bad of a score. I think it's silly that people reference the critics as if SMBM has a sub 25% or something ridiculous like that at RT. Reviews are mixed even leaning positive.