Weekend Thread | Friday #s: Mario 14.1, Evil Dead 10.3, Covenant 2.25, John Wick 1.6, Air 1.4

[Issac Newton]

 

 

 

[kayumanggi]

 

Edited April 21, 2023 by kayumanggi

[kayumanggi]

Sorry, I have just seen the other thread. Kindly delete.

[M37]

High enough to put $20M OW in play, but weaker walk-ups usually means lower IM, so I'll take high teens instead

[stripe]

Solid previews. If Pope Exorcist can do 9M after 850k previews, Evil Dead Rise can open with 20M after 2.5M

 

2.5M

6.5M

6.5M

4.5M

 

[stripe]

Solid previews. If Pope Exorcist can do 9M after 850k previews, Evil Dead Rise can open with 20M after 2.5M

 

2.5M

6.5M

6.5M

4.5M

[filmlover]

Pretty good. Even if it ends up incredibly frontloaded and misses $20M, $17-19M opening is nothing to sneeze at for a movie that cost only $15M to make and was once destined for streaming before reversing course.

[stripe]

Crossing fingers Covenant can open higher than expected.

[TwoMisfits]

So, with some May presales being low, I'm starting to really think Spidey has a shot to win the whole summer DOM.  It has everything going for it, just like Mario did, and I think the schedule is setting up the same way for it to thrive.

 

Although, here's hoping it's really good...b/c it will need quality to win (not a problem on the 1st film)...

 

Demo for Spidey 1 from 2018 (from Deadline):

 

"As we mentioned previously, exit demos for Spider-Verse were 67% non-families, with men 25+ repping 41% of moviegoers, followed by men under 25 at 26%. Both enjoyed the movie, with men under 25 giving it 96% and men over 25 a 91% positive score. Boys under 12 outnumbered girls 70% to 30% in turnout. Diversity demos were 43% Caucasian, 21% Hispanic, 16% African-American and 15% Asian."

Edited April 21, 2023 by TwoMisfits

[Jonwo]

7 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Pretty good. Even if it ends up incredibly frontloaded and misses $20M, $17-19M opening is nothing to sneeze at for a movie that cost only $15M to make and was once destined for streaming before reversing course.

Warner Bros has an unexpected success although I believe they're not releasing it in some markets like the UK which is Studiocanal but I suppose the success of Creed III and to an extent Air in OS markets has been balance the release of Shazam! 2 flopping. 

[YM!]

I am not sure about Across. On one hand, it doesn’t seem likely to be a KFP2/Dragon 2, came from a beloved first and definitely has the buzz and hype around it. However, it’s in a crowded summer, opens after a family film way bigger in almost every way than it the week before and we’ve yet to know if CBM fatigue is real or a fluke. Thinking 80/250 for it. 500m-ish WW as Lord/Miller stuff doesn’t do as well OS. 

Edited April 21, 2023 by YM!

[Boxofficerules]

Go EDR

[Brainbug]

The thing with Evil Dead is, no matter how good the reviews are, the concept itself is niche/not for everyone, even among horror fans. So while the hardcore fans of the series would have always seen this, its very hard to get casual moviegoers into one of these films id imagine. In essence, this is why i do think it will be quite frontloaded despite reviews/WOM and i dont really expect walk-ups to make 20M+ safe. 17-19M is where i think it will head to with 2,5M previews.

 

With the 15M budget in mind, that should already mean, it will be a success.

[Boxofficerules]

Anyone know why Violent Night is still showing? I see it still when I check up daily numbers. M3gan is gone, Knock On A Cabin is gone, why is Violent Night still going?

[Brainbug]

12 minutes ago, YM! said:

I am not sure about Across. On one hand, it doesn’t seem likely to be a KFP2/Dragon 2, came from a beloved first and definitely has the buzz and hype around it. However, it’s in a crowded summer, opens after a family film way bigger in almost every way than it the week before and we’ve yet to know if CBM fatigue is real or a fluke. Thinking 80/250 for it. 500m-ish WW as Lord/Miller stuff doesn’t do as well OS. 

 

Imo, that would already be very good for it. The first one opened to 35M and (thanks to christmas holidays) got to 190M DOM. 250M would mean a 31% increase in raw dollars. In the context of a crowded summer and the points you mentioned, i dont think we should be disappointed with such a performance.

 

Though for the record, id personally say that the film could come closer to 300M and a 100M OW. I think the original film has found a lot of new fans in years since it came out and beeing an animated film that thas no connection to the MCU, it could also be argued that "superhero fatigue" might not be a factor for it, or at least not as much.

[Issac Newton]

4 minutes ago, Boxofficerules said:

Anyone know why Violent Night is still showing? I see it still when I check up daily numbers. M3gan is gone, Knock On A Cabin is gone, why is Violent Night still going?

In Germany, Bohemian Rhapsody crossed 4M admits after 4 &½ years. May be Violent Night is following a certain goal or playing until the last dollar?

[AMC Theaters Enjoyer]

EDR is looking PLF heavy, hopefully will get it over the 20M mark. Any number over its budget is still a W though.

[Jonwo]

9 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

The thing with Evil Dead is, no matter how good the reviews are, the concept itself is niche/not for everyone, even among horror fans. So while the hardcore fans of the series would have always seen this, its very hard to get casual moviegoers into one of these films id imagine. In essence, this is why i do think it will be quite frontloaded despite reviews/WOM and i dont really expect walk-ups to make 20M+ safe. 17-19M is where i think it will head to with 2,5M previews.

 

With the 15M budget in mind, that should already mean, it will be a success.

It's interesting how Evil Dead has always had small budgets. Army of Darkness' was fairly high for the time at $11m but that broke even at least theatrically. 

[stuart360]

15 minutes ago, Boxofficerules said:

Anyone know why Violent Night is still showing? I see it still when I check up daily numbers. M3gan is gone, Knock On A Cabin is gone, why is Violent Night still going?

Even more puzzling when you take into account Christmas related films usually fall off a cliff and dissapear like a week or two after Xmas.

[Lestranger]

20M is happening, buzz is high