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Issac Newton

Weekend Thread | Friday #s: Mario 14.1, Evil Dead 10.3, Covenant 2.25, John Wick 1.6, Air 1.4

By Issac Newton, in Numbers and Data

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M37 Box Office Gold

M37

Posted
Posted
52 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

If Mario doesn't make at least ____ million next weekend 600m is dead.

 

Fill in the blank?

Sub-30% drop, so like $41M

 

To be clear, I do think it beats that benchmark even though I have under $600M finish. Just can’t yet rule out a Sonic 2-like run in mid-May (-23%, -12% !), before family competition hits on Memorial Day weekend 

 

 

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BoxOfficeFangrl Box Office Gold

BoxOfficeFangrl

Posted
Posted
21 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

Did Air need an R rating?

The scene that got the biggest laughs at my screening has extremely R-rated language. There could have been a PG-13 version of the story, but since it was made to be a streaming movie, Affleck probably wasn't that concerned about the MPA rating. Amazon surely has people who can do math and knew there was virtually no path to Air breaking even theatrically. So from their perspective, why bother with reshoots that may not improve the quality of the movie and may not add much to the box office?

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Ledmonkey96 Box Office Gold

Ledmonkey96

Posted
Posted

It's not a huge thing but after this weekend the month of April is at 758mil gross, so the month should easily get past 2017s 811mil April gross, at which point only 2018 and 2019 are the only years higher and they had Infinity War and Endgame. Granted Mario will gross more in the month of April than either of them by a decent margin. Hell Mario is currently 57.3% of the monthly gross based off weekend estimates. Still at least as far as theaters are concerned things certainly seem to be getting back to mostly normal even if there are way fewer movies playing (2018 and 2019 had 220~ movies play over the course of the month, this year has only had 105 so far)

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Nate Straight-to-DVD

Nate

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, grey ghost said:

If Mario doesn't make at least ____ million next weekend 600m is dead.

 

Fill in the blank?


Assuming 'regular good' holds (30s %) after the next 2 weeks, and barring any 'crazy good' holds (sub 20%) late in the run, 41 next weekend + 29 the one after (29% drops) would be the minimum needed to flirt with 600+ imo.

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stuart360 Blockbuster

stuart360

Posted
Posted

I see Mario finishing around 570-580mil.

 

13mil weekdays coming up - 447mil total

40mil next weekend - 487mil total

9mil weekdays - 496mil total

25mil weekend - 521mil total

6mil weekdays - 527mil total

15mil weekend - 542mil total

4mil weekdays - 546mil total

10mil weekend - 556mil total

2mil weekdays - 558mil total

6mil weekend - 564mil total

1mil weekdays - 565mil total

3mil weekend - 568mil total

 

and probably another 5-10mil added on over the next few weeks, unless its pulled from cinemas.

 

I may of even been a little high with some of my weekday totals as i feel this will become more of a weekend film as the weeks go on.

So yeah i see around 580mil toital, which is great to be honest.

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grey ghost Global Phenomenon

grey ghost

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, Cappoedameron said:

Shocked Nintendo and Illumination haven't confirmed development of films after this.

 

Cinematic Universes are notoriously easy to fuck up.

 

I wouldn't be surprised if they took months to map things out even if they go with the simpler route of a sequel and a couple of spin offs.

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