GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY VOL. 3 WEEKEND THREAD

[M37]

4 minutes ago, John Marston said:

Does Mother’s Day  help MCU movies? I don’t think so 

It’s usually not much of a benefit or hindrance, but with a 62/38 M/F gender split, I wouldn’t bank on much of a boost for GOTG3 (see previously CACW)

[Agafin]

10 minutes ago, John Marston said:

 

Has any MCU movie ever been helped by Mother's Day?

[CaptNathanBrittles]

On 5/7/2023 at 4:52 PM, CaptNathanBrittles said:

GOTG3's IM is 90.8% of GOTG2. If we extend that to its total legs than GOTG3 will finish at $273.6m.

 

Updated with actuals:

 

94.2%.

$296m DOM.

[Mojoguy]

15 minutes ago, John Marston said:

Does Mother’s Day  help MCU movies? I don’t think so 

Mothers Day will help restaurants as always.

 

But I doubt it GOTG will get that big of a boost.

 

Mario should get another great drop though. If moms choose a movie with their families, they might as well go to the only animated movie out right now.

 

Remember the Father's Day boost for TGM last year? Now THAT was the perfect dads movie!

Edited May 8, 2023 by Mojoguy

[ChipDerby]

3 minutes ago, John Marston said:

Does Mother’s Day  help MCU movies? I don’t think so 

 

Iron Man fell 50% on MD weekend (2nd weekend)

IM2 fell 32% (OW Sunday)

Thor fell 28% (OW Sunday)

Avengers fell 50% (2nd weekend)

IM3 fell 58% (2nd weekend)

CA:TWS fell 26% (6th weekend)

Ultron fell 59% (2nd weekend)

CA:CW fell 31% (OW Sunday)

GOTG2 fell 55% (2nd weekend)

A:IW fell 46% (3rd weekend)

A:E fell 57% (3rd weekend)

DS:MOM fell 33% (OW Sunday)

[ThomasNicole]

I’m not expecting any 500M grosser for summer but i’m considering 3 potential +400M grossers 

 

Spidey can get there, Indy can get there and Barbie can get there 

 

Of course it depends of many factors, but if everything goes right, i can see it happening

Edited May 8, 2023 by ThomasNicole

[MovieMan89]

1 minute ago, ThomasNicole said:

I’m not expecting any 500M grosser for summer but i’m considering 3 potential +400M grossers 

 

Spidey can get there, Indy can get there and Barbie can get there 

 

Of course it depends of many factors, but if everything goes right, i can see it happening

Highly skeptical of Indy. I think everything has to go as right as possible for it, like on a TGM level. A big 200 “disappointment” would surprise me less than 400.

[M37]

5 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

I was thinking this summer we'd have a ton of $200-$300M movies - I don't see many getting over $300M b/c they'll each take out each other's legs...

Here’s the thing: we have not yet had a single film finish between $225M and $340M since the pandemic - that’s a HUGE gap (though GOTG3 looks poised to slide in somewhere over $300M)

 

There’s just a big gap between the top 1-2 tier films that have “it” and those lower tier ones that don’t, and I can totally see the “it” movies like LM and AtSV breaking out, while those that are lacking suffering. Rather than business being spread around and pulling the top films down by reducing legs 

 

So if a film doesn’t have $300M+ potential, then the ending value will probably be closer to - if not below - $200M than somewhere in between. Flash and Indy are the ones I’m not sure about, but won’t be surprised if either or even both fall below the threshold 

[dignam]

Went to the cinema again. Movie got much better after the 2nd viewing.

 

 

1. GOTG 1

2. GOTG 3

3. GOTG 2

[ThomasNicole]

Just now, MovieMan89 said:

Highly skeptical of Indy. I think everything has to go as right as possible for it, like on a TGM level. A big 200 “disappointment” would surprise me less than 400.

Agreed, is the trickiest movie to judge in the slate since it’s main audience is harder to track online. 
 

I’m just giving credit because it will be shocking if DIS send it to Cannes without being sure is an amazing movie. 
 

So i’m counting with high quality in my expectations and that DIS will use it smartly to create interest. 
 

I’m thinking about Indy 4 adjusted as comparisson which is +400M, just in a different configuration. Indy 4 started with a bang and then suffer hard drops due to bad WOM, i’m expecting Indy 5 to start lower because of that and then recover with a good WOM for a similar total.

[MovieMan89]

2 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

Agreed, is the trickiest movie to judge in the slate since it’s main audience is harder to track online. 
 

I’m just giving credit because it will be shocking if DIS send it to Cannes without being sure is an amazing movie. 
 

So i’m counting with high quality in my expectations and that DIS will use it smartly to create interest. 
 

I’m thinking about Indy 4 adjusted as comparisson which is +400M, just in a different configuration. Indy 4 started with a bang and then suffer hard drops due to bad WOM, i’m expecting Indy 5 to start lower because of that and then recover with a good WOM for a similar total.

Mangold is also promising for the quality, just not sure if quality is even enough. The other big problem for Indy 5 is MI looming right on its tail for basically the exact same demo. Getting over 40 crowd en masse is already hard enough to ask them to show up for both at basically the same time frame. Most are gonna pick one or the other between the two. 

Edited May 8, 2023 by MovieMan89

[CaptNathanBrittles]

3 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

Agreed, is the trickiest movie to judge in the slate since it’s main audience is harder to track online. 
 

I’m just giving credit because it will be shocking if DIS send it to Cannes without being sure is an amazing movie. 
 

So i’m counting with high quality in my expectations and that DIS will use it smartly to create interest. 
 

I’m thinking about Indy 4 adjusted as comparisson which is +400M, just in a different configuration. Indy 4 started with a bang and then suffer hard drops due to bad WOM, i’m expecting Indy 5 to start lower because of that and then recover with a good WOM for a similar total.

 

INDY 4 only had 3 drops over 50% in its entire run.

[TwoMisfits]

21 minutes ago, M37 said:

Here’s the thing: we have not yet had a single film finish between $225M and $340M since the pandemic - that’s a HUGE gap (though GOTG3 looks poised to slide in somewhere over $300M)

 

There’s just a big gap between the top 1-2 tier films that have “it” and those lower tier ones that don’t, and I can totally see the “it” movies like LM and AtSV breaking out, while those that are lacking suffering. Rather than business being spread around and pulling the top films down by reducing legs 

 

So if a film doesn’t have $300M+ potential, then the ending value will probably be closer to - if not below - $200M than somewhere in between. Flash and Indy are the ones I’m not sure about, but won’t be surprised if either or even both fall below the threshold 

 

But we haven't had a packed summer without a "winner" since the pandemic, either.  TGM just sucked the life out of the summer last year, with the 2 MCUs (and Minions for family) taking the rest.  There isn't that dominance this summer from the MCU or an "it" film, unless Spidey blows out my already high expectations...so there is money for a lot of movies to do a "little" better, popping into the $200M level b/c the top just won't be so top heavy...

[grim22]

 

Looks like pretty much every movie this summer is going to be doing advance fan screenings.

[Bastien]

 

35 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

I’m not expecting any 500M grosser for summer but i’m considering 3 potential +400M grossers 

 

Spidey can get there, Indy can get there and Barbie can get there 

 

Of course it depends of many factors, but if everything goes right, i can see it happening

 

Highly doubt any of these get there.

 

Spidey is ~250m

Indy around that aswell I think with a shot to 300 if really good.

 

Barbie is a big ? for me but atm I don't see it above 150m.

[KP1025]

16 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

But we haven't had a packed summer without a "winner" since the pandemic, either.  TGM just sucked the life out of the summer last year, with the 2 MCUs (and Minions for family) taking the rest.  

 

Don't forget JWD, which was technically the second biggest that summer as it was the only other film besides TGM to cross $1 billion WW.

[Eric Burnett]

 

[fmpro]

GOTG3 up to 82% on RT. 3 years ago this would have been a 90%+

[Mulder]

4 minutes ago, fmpro said:

GOTG3 up to 82% on RT. 3 years ago this would have been a 90%+

Not really. Vol. 2 has an 85%.

[M37]

4 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

But we haven't had a packed summer without a "winner" since the pandemic, either.  TGM just sucked the life out of the summer last year, with the 2 MCUs (and Minions for family) taking the rest.  There isn't that dominance this summer from the MCU or an "it" film, unless Spidey blows out my already high expectations...so there is money for a lot of movies to do a "little" better, popping into the $200M level b/c the top just won't be so top heavy...

The first few weeks of summer were basically MoM’s and TGM’s to own, virtually no competition. By Wed 6/08, day before JWD opened, MoM was basically done, and TGM had already banked $334M, went on to gross $380M more. JWD then made $377M, Minions $370M, Thor $343M … and the next highest were Elvis at $151M, and Nope at $124M. From 6/09 on, when there was actual competition, nothing won the summer, it was just haves and have nots 
 

The only films post-pandemic to gross over $190M and not reach at least $340 are Shang-Chi, Venom, and AMWQ - all second tier CBMs (Sonic finished at $190M). While competition and time of year can shift these final totals up or down somewhat, that gap is (IMO) very real, and it’s just a question of whether a film has “it” or not. Flash, Indy and maybe MI4 or Barbie all might, but the rest I’ll take under $200M for (except MI7, which could land in the same ~$215 range as the last couple)