Weekdays Thread (5/15-18) | Guardians $5.18M Monday

[Mr Roark]

23 minutes ago, thajdikt said:

Excellent Thursday, stronger drop than Vol 2. 

Yes. MON was even better tho compared to V2.

[MovieMan89]

3 hours ago, AJG said:

Off-Topic but relates to the weekend thread - these Zelda numbers are phenomenal but there is absolutely no way numbers this small could impact box office. 

 

 

So it falls about 3.5 mil short of GTA Vs 3 day record, but one of the only other games ever that has done over 10m in 3 days (along with Pokémon Scarlet/Violet recently). Considering both of those games launched on one console vs multiple like GTA, it’s still an insane number. Annoying it didn’t handily beat Pokémon given how broken that game was, but it’s essentially tied with that as the biggest opening weekend game event since GTA V. 

[Eric the IF]

https://deadline.com/2023/05/fast-x-opening-china-global-international-box-office-1235370276/

 

Quote

Universal’s Fast X has started its engines overseas, opening notably in China and Korea on Wednesday and clocking $18.4M from just those two markets. 

 

The Louis Leterrier-directed franchise instalment got off to a strong start in China, taking an estimated $17.4M today, including $2.7M from midnight shows. It’s dominating the market with 84% of the total box office and has a great 9 from audiences on Maoyan. This is above F9’s 7.8. 

 

The Wednesday is also the No. 4 biggest opening day for a studio film in China since the beginning of the pandemic and the other films ahead of it all opened on a Friday rather than a non-holiday Wednesday. It’s especially encouraging given sentiment towards Hollywood movies in the market has been tepid of late to say the least. The score is 84% of the Friday launch of Avatar: The Way of Water and 2.6x the Friday opening of Guardians of the Galaxy  Vol. 3, which itself provided some salve recently.

 

Still, the opening day results are below other films in the franchise (which opened on a weekend day and in a different climate in China). Fast X‘s Wednesday came in 57% below Hobbs & Shaw and 68% below F9. Compared to other Wednesday launches, FX is in the range of Avengers: Age of Ultron and Jurassic World. 

 

Korea also opened today with $1M and 60% market share. That’s 86% of F8, 30% above F7  and below both F9 and Hobbs & Shaw which opened on national holidays. The audience reactions are strong with a 94% CGV Egg score, above F9’s 89%. 

 

[Issac Newton]

 

 

 

[screambaby]

Fast x is really gonna need those international numbers

 

[Issac Newton]

 

 

 

[screambaby]

58 million? I don't think it's gonna be that bad

[Mr Roark]

The forecast is actually $64.5M.

Guardians $32.9M.

[screambaby]

1 minute ago, Mr Roark said:

The forecast is actually $64.5M.

Guardians $32.9M.

Hope guardians. Can do more then that

 

[kayumanggi]

 

[WorkingonaName]

4 hours ago, harry713 said:

A 41% drop from last Tuesday is great tho? 

That was the joke.

[Eevin]

gonna be very hard for guardians to drop under 50% this weekend i feel like, just given the amount of screens it'll lose and assuming a 25-30% drop on thursday. 28-32m seems like the sweet spot, which would be just fine and put it at 265ish by sunday.

 

the same tuesday-to-weekend multiplier as last week would put it at 36m, which feels like the best case scenario given how much more competition there is over last weekend 

[The Dark Alfred]

GOTG 3 keeps opening the gap on RAGNAROK. Should be well out in front after the upcoming weekend. Can move on to target LOVE and THUNDER.

 

MCU THREEQUEL SHOWDOWN  - GOTG 3  VS THOR: RAGNAROK

 

DAY 12: (TUESDAY) GOTG 3 6.446m

DAY 12: (TUESDAY) THOR: RAGNAROK 4.489m

 

DAILY GAIN: GOTG 3 +1.957m

CUME: GOTG 3 226.339m  VS  THOR 220.256m

TARGET:  PLUS 6.083m

[keysersoze123]

I am seeing ~ 4.55m 

[Legion Again]

25 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

I am seeing ~ 4.55m 

Excellent/expected

 

Still thinking over 35 even with plf loss

[Legion Again]

Wknd hold/wed hold for wknd losing most PLF/first big competition:

QM — 40/40=100% (3rd wknd vs Creed)

WF — thanksgiving affected

L&T — 48/49= 98% (3rd wknd vs Nope)

DS2 — 50/71=70% (4th wknd vs TGM)

NWH — xmas affected

Et — 41/38, but correcting for vet eve more like 41/43=95% (3rd vs GBA)

SC — 47/66=71% (5th vs V2)

FFH — 47/59= 80% (3rd vs TLK)

CM — 50/53=94% (3rd vs Us)

IW — 47/59=80% (4th vs DP2)

Rag —38/47=81% (3rd vs JL)

DS1 — 41/49=84% (3rd vs FB1)  

AM1 — 51/59=86% (3rd vs MI5)

AoU — 50/46=109% (3rd vs fury road/pp2)

F10 is going to be ~110% of the preceding weekend, whereas for some of the bigger hits:

TGM 400%

V2 690%

TLK 425%

DP2 200% 

JL 165%

FWIW Gotg3 itself was ~290% of SMB’s preceding wknd

 

Pessimistically I think you could look for an 80% (64% wed hold -> 49%, 31.7M) but I am expecting more in the ballpark of 87-92% (64% wed hold ->34.5-36.5M).    
 

Gotg3 sun has actually matched IW-with-first-week-lopped-off pretty closely so far, which went

62M wknd

4.63M

6M

4.2M

3.44M (-18 vs DP2 previews)

29.5M wknd

 

F10 is no DP2 but even still that Wed x would take 4.55 to 32M

[OceanBlvd]

13 hours ago, MovieMan89 said:

So it falls about 3.5 mil short of GTA Vs 3 day record, but one of the only other games ever that has done over 10m in 3 days (along with Pokémon Scarlet/Violet recently). Considering both of those games launched on one console vs multiple like GTA, it’s still an insane number. Annoying it didn’t handily beat Pokémon given how broken that game was, but it’s essentially tied with that as the biggest opening weekend game event since GTA V. 

Japan holding the numbers back. It only “tied” with Pokémon because of Japan. Zelda has never been big in Japan (it was always western leaning) until BOTW, but Pokémon is on another level. It outperformed Pokémon in every other territory except Japan. With that said, the sales in Japan despite being lower than Pokémon is vastly higher than what series used to sell in Japan. The growth is apparent even in Japan (one of its weakest markets). The fact that now, Zelda is toe to toe with these massive franchises in sales is already crazy because this series sells good, but it was never this huge. Zelda has always been more of a critical darling prestige series. Now it has massive numbers to match.

 

This bodes well if there’s an upcoming movie. The IP commercial trajectory is 📈📈📈.

Edited May 18, 2023 by OceanBlvd

[Mr Roark]

If it keeps being ahead of V2 - despite Fast competition - by a 8/10% that would lead to a $37/38M weekend. 

[stripe]

4.55M would mean just 36% drop against last week's Wednesday

Also, around 29% drop from Tuesday

 

Possible scenarios for Thursday
30% drop - 3.2M

25% drop - 3.41M (TGM dropped around that against JWD)

20% drop - 3.64M 

15% drop - 3.85M (Thor4/MoM dropped around that against Nope and TGM)

10% drop - 4.1M

[kayumanggi]

 

This is good all things considered, right?