THE LITTLE MERMAID WEEKEND THREAD

[JohnnyGossamer]

So what are the numbers? What're FX and GotGV3 and SMBM looking like? Are they coming in higher or lower than expected with their Saturday numbers? Thanks!

Edited May 28, 2023 by JohnnyGossamer

[robertman2]

NOT AN EVENT!

[Liiviig 1998]

9 minutes ago, JohnnyGossamer said:

I mean, Justice League is DECU's Avengers. Not a really fair comparison. OS opening isn't great but DOM opening is definitely pretty good. We'll see if it has legs. RT audience score pretty impressive at 95%.

It's definitely gonna have legs domestic . Even most have in contention for domestic crown just look through the thread even the pessismstic one's have it doing well Domestic .This whole flop talk is coming from the OS numbers which are simply dreadful .

 

Whoever is saying they are talking of 100m ow as sub 50m opening is ignoring the context as selecting few random users who are saying that.

 

All the doom and gloom is around OS and potential WW total and not the domestic opening.

 

The breakeven is 625m . This is probably making  750m at best . Total in the 650M+ is more likely so that's fairly close to breakeven point.

 

[JohnnyGossamer]

3 minutes ago, Liiviig 1998 said:

It's definitely gonna have legs domestic . Even most have in contention for domestic crown just look through the thread even the pessismstic one's have it doing well Domestic .This whole flop talk is coming from the OS numbers which are simply dreadful .

 

Whoever is saying they are talking of 100m ow as sub 50m opening is ignoring the context as selecting few random users who are saying that.

 

All the doom and gloom is around OS and potential WW total and not the domestic opening.

 

The breakeven is 625m . This is probably making  750m at best . Total in the 650M+ is more likely so that's fairly close to breakeven point.

 

So it's pretty much locked to pass the break even by 25M+ just in theatrical run and the all PVOD, etc. sales it gets is just more money in the bank? If so, that's seems good to me.

[Spidey Freak]

33 minutes ago, Mulder said:

Comparing superhero movie sequels to something like Little Mermaid is ridiculous and all three of you know it. Epitome of bad faith arguing here. 

 

TLM was also the 'smallest' of the Big 4 Renaissance films so comparing its live action remake's performance to the other 3 live action remakes isn't the fairest comparison to begin with. It's still outperforming Aladdin DOM OW which is pretty huge in its own right.

[Liiviig 1998]

12 minutes ago, JohnnyGossamer said:

So it's pretty much locked to pass the break even by 25M+ just in theatrical run and the all PVOD, etc. sales it gets is just more money in the bank? If so, that's seems good to me.

Not going to say locked but most likely. In the end don't think this is a total  Disney will be that much satisfied about considering its counterparts  .That being said TLM was never as popular as TLK , Aladdin or BatB so even without stuff going on OS  it wouldn't have come close to those 3.

probably 500mish  OS . Os potential was over estimated quite a bit  even by myself.

 

Edited May 28, 2023 by Liiviig 1998

[IronJimbo & Sheldon's Son]

People saw the quality of the underwater scenes in Avatar 2 and checked out of TLM after seeing the atrocious underwater scenes in the trailer

[Ororo Munroe]

So are there any reliable saturday numbers in here? I didn’t see anything pinned and I’m not trying to read through a thread of bad takes. 

[Liiviig 1998]

29m+ according to last estimate by @charlie Jatinder

Edited May 28, 2023 by Liiviig 1998

[Ororo Munroe]

Oh that would be a little disappointing after Friday’s number. Guess we’ll have to see what the actual number is. 

Edited May 28, 2023 by Ororo Munroe

[Elessar]

3 hours ago, ZattMurdock said:

Similar to how Microsoft was denied of buying Activision months ago.

 

In one country, namely UK. About 40 countries have approved it, including EU and Japan. In the US it will go to court and experts are saying Microsoft will probably win. The deal will go through.

Edited May 28, 2023 by Elessar

[Cooper Legion]

1 hour ago, Mulder said:

 

 

Comparing superhero movie sequels to something like Little Mermaid is ridiculous and all three of you know it. Epitome of bad faith arguing here. 

No, to be honest I thought it was a pretty good faith response and this one is rather bad faith. You said you’d never seen a movie opening over 100M get his kind of reaction, but:

This probably isn’t opening over 100M to begin with

plenty of movies that open to like 90-110 area get slammed    
 

If what you actually meant was something much narrower and more nuanced then I guess it’s probably true but no longer seems particularly meaningful to me.

Edited May 28, 2023 by Legions of the Galaxy

[ZattMurdock]

6 minutes ago, Elessar said:

 

In one country, namely UK. About 40 countries have approved it, including EU and Japan. In the US it will go to court and experts are saying Microsoft will probably win. The deal will go through.

I’m not so sure about that.

[Super]

1 hour ago, Mulder said:

 

 

Comparing superhero movie sequels to something like Little Mermaid is ridiculous and all three of you know it. Epitome of bad faith arguing here. 

Because the other 3 Disney remakes weren’t massive hits that all cleared a billion while this one isn’t going to struggle to make half of what the others made?

[Agafin]

1 hour ago, Liiviig 1998 said:

It's definitely gonna have legs domestic . Even most have in contention for domestic crown just look through the thread even the pessismstic one's have it doing well Domestic .This whole flop talk is coming from the OS numbers which are simply dreadful .

 

Whoever is saying they are talking of 100m ow as sub 50m opening is ignoring the context as selecting few random users who are saying that.

 

All the doom and gloom is around OS and potential WW total and not the domestic opening.

 

The breakeven is 625m . This is probably making  750m at best . Total in the 650M+ is more likely so that's fairly close to breakeven point.

 

Given how domestic heavy the movie's bo is, the breakeven is likely closer to $550m rather than $625m.

[THUNDER BIRD]

1 hour ago, IronJimbo & Sheldon's Son said:

People saw the quality of the underwater scenes in Avatar 2 and checked out of TLM after seeing the atrocious underwater scenes in the trailer

UnIronically Avatar has basically created a headache for future Underwater based movies in a way, you either step up in your visual department or you go down.

 

You don't need to match Avatar, but you still need to give a satisfactory experience to audience.

Edited May 28, 2023 by THUNDER BIRD

[Liiviig 1998]

10 minutes ago, Agafin said:

Given how domestic heavy the movie's bo is, the breakeven is likely closer to $550m rather than $625m.

Was using 2.5* production budget  rule .

Anyway  what percentage share of revenues does Disney get from Us theaters?

 

@charlie Jatinder maybe can give us info on this?

 

Os -china is 40%

China is 25%

 

Edited May 28, 2023 by Liiviig 1998

[Kon]

2 hours ago, JohnnyGossamer said:

So it's pretty much locked to pass the break even by 25M+ just in theatrical run and the all PVOD, etc. sales it gets is just more money in the bank? If so, that's seems good to me.

It isn't locked. That's the issue.

 

If the Little Mermaid has bad legs, it could have problems to break even.

[ZattMurdock]

15 minutes ago, THUNDER BIRD said:

UnIronically Avatar has basically created a headache for future Underwater based movies in a way, you either step up in your visual department or you go down.

 

You don't need to match Avatar, but you still need to give a satisfactory experience to audience.

I don’t even know how Avatar 2 scenes are because I never even saw it lol. Waiting until it gets into Disney+.

[Kon]

26 minutes ago, Liiviig 1998 said:

Was using 2.5* production budget  rule .

Anyway  what percentage share of revenues does Disney get from Us theaters?

 

@charlie Jatinder maybe can give us info on this?

 

Os -china is 40%

China is 25%

 

I've understood American Studios receive 50% from American theatres.

 

It's the biggest share, that's why the domestic market is the most important

 

 

PS: OS-China being 40% is an average. Each country has its own percentage.

Edited May 28, 2023 by Kon