Father’s Day/Juneteenth Weekend Thread | Flash implodes with 55M, Elemental bombs with 29M, holdovers hold atrociously | Theaters are dead, streaming is dead. Everything is dead really.

[ZattMurdock]

Like I’ve said, it’s a matter of when, not if:

 

https://fortune.com/2023/04/17/disney-ceo-bob-iger-apple-takeover-steve-jobs/

[THUNDER BIRD]

5 minutes ago, WorkingonaName said:

Godzilla and Kong.

That would be GxK

 

Afterall that's the title, Godzilla x Kong

[baumer]

5 minutes ago, WorkingonaName said:

Godzilla and Kong.

 

You know as soon as I pressed send, I figured that out LOL

[M37]

Worst Second Weekend Drops

min 4000 locations for second weekend

1. Morbius (4,268) = -73.8%
2. Onward (4,310) = -72.9% [COVID-19 pandemic]
3. Potter DH2 (4,375) = -72.0%
4. The Suicide Squad (4,019) = -71.5% [Day & Date release]
5. Twilight: New Moon (4,042) = -70%
6. AM&W Quantamania (4,345) = -69.9%
7. Breaking Dawn Pt1 (4,066) = -69.8%
8. Space Jam 2 (4,002) = -69.1% [Day & Date release]
9. Batman vs Superman (4,256) = -69.1%
10. Breaking Dawn Pt2 (4,070) = -69.1%
11. Shazam 2 (4,071) = -69.0%
12. X-Men: Wolverine (4,102) = -69.0%
13. Fantastic Four (4,004) = -68.2%

Besides the three pandemic/Day & Date affected films, there's 4 of the massive YA titles, and 6 CBMs, three of which have come out in just last 18 months.

 

How high - or I suppose, LOW - does Flash rank by the end of next weekend?

 

[JustWatching]

4 minutes ago, M37 said:

Worst Second Weekend Drops

min 4000 locations for second weekend

1. Morbius (4,268) = -73.8%
2. Onward (4,310) = -72.9% [COVID-19 pandemic]
3. Potter DH2 (4,375) = -72.0%
4. The Suicide Squad (4,019) = -71.5% [Day & Date release]
5. Twilight: New Moon (4,042) = -70%
6. AM&W Quantamania (4,345) = -69.9%
7. Breaking Dawn Pt1 (4,066) = -69.8%
8. Space Jam 2 (4,002) = -69.1% [Day & Date release]
9. Batman vs Superman (4,256) = -69.1%
10. Breaking Dawn Pt2 (4,070) = -69.1%
11. Shazam 2 (4,071) = -69.0%
12. X-Men: Wolverine (4,102) = -69.0%
13. Fantastic Four (4,004) = -68.2%

Besides the three pandemic/Day & Date affected films, there's 4 of the massive YA titles, and 6 CBMs, three of which have come out in just last 18 months.

 

How high - or I suppose, LOW - does Flash rank by the end of next weekend?

 

Put me down for no. 1.

[Bob Train]

$400m would've required extraordinary legs so I don't know why it became the consensus for SV. Even Guardians Legs would leave it like 30m short, and that's with more competition than Guardians. This reminds me of when people said $600m was locked for Mario.

Edited June 20, 2023 by Bob Train

[toutvabien]

I just noticed Guardians had an estimated 27% drop this weekend with a new live action cbm opening. Damn! And it's not even the leggiest Guardians movie...

[kayumanggi]

 

[kayumanggi]

 

[DC Rich]

I'm not sure what everyone is worried about.  WOM is just starting to kick in for The Flash. 

 

[Taruseth]

28 minutes ago, M37 said:

Worst Second Weekend Drops

min 4000 locations for second weekend

1. Morbius (4,268) = -73.8%
2. Onward (4,310) = -72.9% [COVID-19 pandemic]
3. Potter DH2 (4,375) = -72.0%
4. The Suicide Squad (4,019) = -71.5% [Day & Date release]
5. Twilight: New Moon (4,042) = -70%
6. AM&W Quantamania (4,345) = -69.9%
7. Breaking Dawn Pt1 (4,066) = -69.8%
8. Space Jam 2 (4,002) = -69.1% [Day & Date release]
9. Batman vs Superman (4,256) = -69.1%
10. Breaking Dawn Pt2 (4,070) = -69.1%
11. Shazam 2 (4,071) = -69.0%
12. X-Men: Wolverine (4,102) = -69.0%
13. Fantastic Four (4,004) = -68.2%

Besides the three pandemic/Day & Date affected films, there's 4 of the massive YA titles, and 6 CBMs, three of which have come out in just last 18 months.

 

How high - or I suppose, LOW - does Flash rank by the end of next weekend?

 

I think 1-3.

But maybe it surprises.

(for #1 it would need to do less than 14.4m - that sound really awful)

 

(The DH2 drop is awful.)

[Starphanluke]

19 minutes ago, kayumanggi said:

 

Transformers is vibing over in it's corner, just relieved that Flash is bombing so hard no one's paying attention to it posting soft numbers.

 

Where's this one landing? $140m ish?

[ZeroHour]

35 minutes ago, ZattMurdock said:

Like I’ve said, it’s a matter of when, not if:

 

https://fortune.com/2023/04/17/disney-ceo-bob-iger-apple-takeover-steve-jobs/

Would Apple really have much to gain from a Disney acquisition? They'd inherit a rapidly dying linear TV business, a precarious theatrical business, all of the FOX debt, and two additional streamers when they already have one. I guess if they're really eager to get into the branded merch and theme park/cruise business.

[ZattMurdock]

1 minute ago, ZeroHour said:

Would Apple really have much to gain from a Disney acquisition? They'd inherit a rapidly dying linear TV business, a precarious theatrical business, all of the FOX debt, and two additional streamers when they already have one. I guess if they're really eager to get into the branded merch and theme park/cruise business.

Disney holds arguably the most valuable IPs in the world. Apple is all about the premium content and etc. We like it or not, streaming is here to stay. Only few will remain, and I don’t see Apple playing to lose. They have a "streaming service" yes, but that’s not really what this is about. It’s IP. It’s not coincidence that they keep getting partnered all the time.

[excel1]

3 hours ago, FunkMiller said:

 

Good question. As essentially the fourth part in The Dark Knight saga, I'm sure it would do well.

 

150+ million OW domestic. Clears a billion in total.

 

A lot but not as much as it would have been in 2017 or 2018.

 

1 hour ago, filmscholar said:

People in the media and online talked a lot of trash about the Rock and "Black Adam" performance but when you pull the curtain back, General Audiences do not know "Black Adam" like that yet The Rock almost got it to 400 Million WW.   The "Flash" had 2 Batman's in it so what's the excuse?   "Black Adam" wasn't as bad of a performance as many proclaimed again I think the budget  was a little much for a character not known as much. 

 

100% no doubt 

[Liiviig 1998]

Not sure flash is getting to light-year . Shazam 2 legs  gets it to around  105m . But thinking 110M+.

 

[ZeroHour]

14 minutes ago, ZattMurdock said:

Disney holds arguably the most valuable IPs in the world. Apple is all about the premium content and etc. We like it or not, streaming is here to stay. Only few will remain, and I don’t see Apple playing to lose. They have a "streaming service" yes, but that’s not really what this is about. It’s IP. It’s not coincidence that they keep getting partnered all the time.

The IP argument is a good one, but it would come with a ton of headaches. Streaming is certainly here to stay, but so far it's just been a side hustle for Apple. I guess if they feel like they absolutely have to have Mickey Mouse and Iron Man around to sell headsets then maybe.

Edited June 20, 2023 by ZeroHour

[Bobzaruni]

The Rock is one of the most recognizable people on the people, the idea that he doesn't have a 'draw' is insane

[IronJimbo & Sheldon's Son]

57 minutes ago, M37 said:

Worst Second Weekend Drops

min 4000 locations for second weekend

1. Morbius (4,268) = -73.8%
2. Onward (4,310) = -72.9% [COVID-19 pandemic]
3. Potter DH2 (4,375) = -72.0%
4. The Suicide Squad (4,019) = -71.5% [Day & Date release]
5. Twilight: New Moon (4,042) = -70%
6. AM&W Quantamania (4,345) = -69.9%
7. Breaking Dawn Pt1 (4,066) = -69.8%
8. Space Jam 2 (4,002) = -69.1% [Day & Date release]
9. Batman vs Superman (4,256) = -69.1%
10. Breaking Dawn Pt2 (4,070) = -69.1%
11. Shazam 2 (4,071) = -69.0%
12. X-Men: Wolverine (4,102) = -69.0%
13. Fantastic Four (4,004) = -68.2%

Besides the three pandemic/Day & Date affected films, there's 4 of the massive YA titles, and 6 CBMs, three of which have come out in just last 18 months.

 

How high - or I suppose, LOW - does Flash rank by the end of next weekend?

 

• Coming off a (pseudo) 4-day weekend
• Might lose some PLFs
• Summer weekdays will eat away at weekend demand
• B Cinemascore
• CBMs typically drop hard anyway
• 70%+ male skew

[katnisscinnaplex]

46 minutes ago, M37 said:

Worst Second Weekend Drops

min 4000 locations for second weekend

1. Morbius (4,268) = -73.8%
2. Onward (4,310) = -72.9% [COVID-19 pandemic]
3. Potter DH2 (4,375) = -72.0%
4. The Suicide Squad (4,019) = -71.5% [Day & Date release]
5. Twilight: New Moon (4,042) = -70%
6. AM&W Quantamania (4,345) = -69.9%
7. Breaking Dawn Pt1 (4,066) = -69.8%
8. Space Jam 2 (4,002) = -69.1% [Day & Date release]
9. Batman vs Superman (4,256) = -69.1%
10. Breaking Dawn Pt2 (4,070) = -69.1%
11. Shazam 2 (4,071) = -69.0%
12. X-Men: Wolverine (4,102) = -69.0%
13. Fantastic Four (4,004) = -68.2%

Besides the three pandemic/Day & Date affected films, there's 4 of the massive YA titles, and 6 CBMs, three of which have come out in just last 18 months.

 

How high - or I suppose, LOW - does Flash rank by the end of next weekend?

 

Not to mention coming off the holiday inflated weekend.  Looking through the others... New Moon's 2nd weekend was Thanksgiving weekend, Quantumania opened on President's Day weekend, Breaking Dawn's 2nd weekend was Thanksgiving, BvS opened Easter weekend, Wolverine's 2nd weekend was Mother's Day.  A few others had minor holidays either on OW or 2nd weekend.  Even though it appears to be on track for -70%, we need to factor in that this horrid OW was inflated from where it could have been. I wouldn't be surprised for it to surpass Morbius at this point.