Weekend Actuals (Jun 23 - 25) | 19.00M ATSV | 18.44M ELEMENTAL | 15.14M THE FLASH | 15.00M NO HARD FEELINGS

[Napoleon]

The Flash's drop is kinda shocking when you look at its online audience scores, which are actually decent (80% all audience on RT, 7.3 on IMDb). Cinemascore was the only bad one, I guess they are really the most reliable metric to predict legs.

[ZeeSoh]

13 minutes ago, WorkingonaName said:

Fan4stic suddenly doesn't looks so bad, what a horrible past 2 years for CBMs.

IKR! Except for a few expected names on that list (BvS, Dark Phoenix for example), most are from the past 2 years. 

[PrinceRico]

4 minutes ago, Napoleon said:

The Flash's drop is kinda shocking when you look at its online audience scores, which are actually decent (80% all audience on RT, 7.3 on IMDb). Cinemascore was the only bad one, I guess they are really the most reliable metric to predict legs.

Those scores are low for a CBM. 

[Eric Prime]

54 minutes ago, Maggie said:

Of course she is. She's the biggest star in her age range

How DARE you take the name of Timothee in vain!

[Cooper Legion]

27 minutes ago, M37 said:

Three consecutive new #1s happens a fair amount, usually Wed/Thur/Fri, or Thu/Fri/Sat. But last time we had 4 in a row was 1/21-24/2018

• SUN - Jumaji WTJ
• MON - Den of Thieves (by like $600)
• TUE - 12 Strong
• WED - The Post (Oscar nom bump)

Wow, 22k short of or Jumanji of Th of having a 6 in a row streak of new #1. This one will easily get to 5 and possibly 6 (or 7???)

[TigerPaw]

4 minutes ago, Napoleon said:

The Flash's drop is kinda shocking when you look at its online audience scores, which are actually decent (80% all audience on RT, 7.3 on IMDb). Cinemascore was the only bad one, I guess they are really the most reliable metric to predict legs.

I mean the movie isn't that bad; it is actually pretty good. In some parts of Asia, it is holding pretty well - such as Hong Kong and Taiwan, the latter despite spiderverse opening. 

 

Issue in the West is more of expectations IMO - WB claiming it is one of the greatest superhero films of all times.. too much hype..

Legs also impact where there are a lot of people obviously refusing to support Ezra Miller as well as fake Snyderfans attacking it on twitter, sharing pirated links, reversing one of the scenes from a cam copy..which also went viral. Just a lot a lot of bad press.

[babz06]

38 minutes ago, filmlover said:

The fact JLaw is powering an R-rated comedy (a particular movie genre that's been in danger of going the way of the dodo for a while) to a $15M or so opening, and a projected $45-50M total, all by herself without any assistance from other actors proves that she is considered as much of a star as anyone can be in 2023. 

Agreed. This only reason this movie is making money is because of her. 

[cookie]

3 minutes ago, Eric Wayne said:

How DARE you take the name of Timothee in vain!

Depending on who you ask, JLaw is a millennial and Timothée is Gen Z tho

[Eevin]

zaslav & wb executives in august when blue beetle drops 91% on its second friday after a 25m ow (supes said it was the best CBM of all time)

[Eric Prime]

Just now, cookie said:

Depending on who you ask, JLaw is a millennial and Timothée is Gen Z tho

[TigerPaw]

45 minutes ago, filmlover said:

The fact JLaw is powering an R-rated comedy (a particular movie genre that's been in danger of going the way of the dodo for a while) to a $15M or so opening, and a projected $45-50M total, all by herself without any assistance from other actors proves that she is considered as much of a star as anyone can be in 2023. 

100% agreed. She is the only reason anyone is remotely interested in watching the show. If that is not Star Power... Not sure what is.

[21C]

39 minutes ago, Napoleon said:

The Flash's drop is kinda shocking when you look at its online audience scores, which are actually decent (80% all audience on RT, 7.3 on IMDb). Cinemascore was the only bad one, I guess they are really the most reliable metric to predict legs.

I always thought that RT and IMDB are heavily skewed/not actually reflective of the GA because... who the hell even logs in to rate movies in RT? Certainly not anyone in the GA.

[M37]

48 minutes ago, Eevin said:

does seem like audience reception *really* seems to matter post-covid for CBMs in a way that it rarely did previously. i think some folks forget that for a few years there 2.4-2.7 multiplier was the standard –– but this year we've gotten either 3x+ or sub-2x based largely on reviews

Spiderverse: ~380m off 120.7m ow (3.15x); 96 RT, 86 MC, A CS
GotG Vol. 3: ~360m off 118.4m ow (3.05x); 82 RT, 64 MC, A CS

 

Quantumania: 214.5m off 106.1m ow (2.02x); 46 RT, 48 MC, B CS

Shazam 2: 57.6m off 30.1m ow (1.91x); 49 RT, 47 MC, B+ CS
Flash: ~105m off 55m ow (1.91x); 66 RT, 56 MC, B CS

could also just be a general decline in quality in the genre post-endgame, but the lineup with cinemascore in particular feels more pertinent than ever

I prefer to use the Opening Week to help balance out seasons, and there its even worse between good and bad, and especially for Flash (total grosses estimated for films still in release)

The average/median performance is around 2x OWeek, but with CMBs a bit more frontloaded by nature, close to 1.9x is the the approximate baseline (dotted line)

 

 

Top tier is GOTG3, ATSV and Batman, which had a short theatrical window that cut down on legs (would be closer to ATSV without the HBO release). BWPF and BA are above average (aided by holidays), while Thor and Strange are below it, but not significantly so. The bottom 4 just crashed from OWeek, rejected by audiences outside the initial opening, Flash likely to set a new low water mark

[ZattMurdock]

1 hour ago, THUNDER BIRD said:

So what's flash looking like

[JohnnyGossamer]

27 minutes ago, M37 said:

I prefer to use the Opening Week to help balance out seasons, and there its even worse between good and bad, and especially for Flash (total grosses estimated for films still in release)

The average/median performance is around 2x OWeek, but with CMBs a bit more frontloaded by nature, close to 1.9x is the the approximate baseline (dotted line)

 

 

Top tier is GOTG3, ATSV and Batman, which had a short theatrical window that cut down on legs (would be closer to ATSV without the HBO release). BWPF and BA are above average (aided by holidays), while Thor and Strange are below it, but not significantly so. The bottom 4 just crashed from OWeek, rejected by audiences outside the initial opening, Flash likely to set a new low water mark

Shorter window hurt Bats but pretty sure it had PLFs to itself for a nice stretch too... Now that we're seeing impact keeping PLFs for a long stretch has on movies, maybe it kinda balanced out for it that way. As in, I'm not sure it does much better with a wider window but only having PLFs to itself for 7 to 10 days.

[Maggie]

The next few weeks are gonna be a bloodbath for the older, male demo: Indy, MI:DR and Oppenheimer. Indy looks to do ok, but not breaking out. Let's see the other two how they perform

[Litio]

According to Deadline: The Conjuring ($161.7M in profit), The Nun ($155M in profit), Annabelle: Creation ($108.7M profit), The Conjuring 2 ($98.3M profit), Annabelle Comes Home ($64M profit) and The Curse Of La Llorona ($45.6M profit).

 

Since Warner prefers to invest in DC, they should sell The Conjuring franchise to Paramount for something like $1 billion. I'm sure the franchise would be greatly appreciated by them and Warner would recover all the money lost with DC in recent years.

[Dephira]

1 hour ago, Napoleon said:

The Flash's drop is kinda shocking when you look at its online audience scores, which are actually decent (80% all audience on RT, 7.3 on IMDb). Cinemascore was the only bad one, I guess they are really the most reliable metric to predict legs.

I’m just speculating here, but Flash feels like a case of an extremely fanboy driven film. Whoever was going to see it already decided to do so months ago, and the rest of the population just isn’t interested whatsoever. So if you weren’t interested, and 2 of your fanboy friends now tell you “flash was actually pretty decent” - you’re still not gonna have any interest in seeing it because the whole DCEU thing is so confusing and there are at least 2 other movies currently playing that seem More appealing 

[PlatnumRoyce]

  

1 hour ago, TigerPaw said:

I mean the movie isn't that bad; it is actually pretty good. In some parts of Asia, it is holding pretty well - such as Hong Kong and Taiwan, the latter despite spiderverse opening. 

 

Issue in the West is more of expectations IMO - WB claiming it is one of the greatest superhero films of all times.. too much hype..

Legs also impact where there are a lot of people obviously refusing to support Ezra Miller as well as fake Snyderfans attacking it on twitter, sharing pirated links, reversing one of the scenes from a cam copy..which also went viral. Just a lot a lot of bad press.

If the problem was "fake snyderfans" manipulating online discourse, wouldn't you expect that be be seen in the most easily gamed semi-prominent clicker poll (IMDB) instead of having it give good responses?

[M37]

16 minutes ago, JohnnyGossamer said:

Shorter window hurt Bats but pretty sure it had PLFs to itself for a nice stretch too... Now that we're seeing impact keeping PLFs for a long stretch has on movies, maybe it kinda balanced out for it that way. As in, I'm not sure it does much better with a wider window but only having PLFs to itself for 7 to 10 days.

That’s fair, there’s a lot of nuanced baked into these ratios so best to focus on range rather than on specific value. But a -43% second Sat would typically imply much better legs in week 3 and on - like GOTG3 or ATSV - than we saw with Batman later in the run