Steve Rogers Birthday Bash Weekend Thread | 5-Day #s: Indy 83.4, Elemental 18, Spidey 17.65, Sound of Freedom 14.2, No Hard Feelings 11.3

[filmlover]

$85M 5-day would be about where I thought Indiana Jones would land for a while. Could reach $90M if it ends up really backloaded, which isn't impossible.

 

Ruby Gillman being a nonstarter could be seen coming from miles away given how cheap it looked.

[ListenHunnyUrOver]

14 minutes ago, poweranimals said:

Yeah, I mean there are some movies that could benefit from a longer runtime but in general I don't understand why every movie needs to be around 2 and a half hours or more. It never used to be that way.

It’s becoming a huge problem. Anecdotally, a few people I know just don’t want to see movies that are 2h30m+ and it’s definitely cutting into repeat viewings. 

[screambaby]

Any word on a Friday number other then deadlines wishful thinking?

[Ozymandias]

2 hours ago, John Marston said:

Top Gun Maverick seemed deliberately written to go against this. Heard similar things about Picard Season 3 as well

 

It did, and Picard Season 3 was easily the best Star Trek has been since the 90s.

[MovieMan89]

Studios needed to stop naming movies after an unknown name and expect it to do anything at the box office. Audiences don’t have any idea what your movie is. This is 2023, there’s not going to be a “Forrest Gump” situation.   

[grim22]

This Indiewire tweet is the dumbest legal defense i have seen today, and today was a doozy in terms of dumb legal defenses

 

 

[rebelscum86]

5 hours ago, Deathlife said:

 

Where did you get this from?

 

Disney's (the entire corporation) net income increased from 2021 to 2022.

They're not hurting for money last time I checked. Most analysts fear around Disney is around their park business which is their main money maker.

Their 10k report. (I'm a CPA so I fully understand it) It's scary. They have tremendous value in assets and IP (I think it was something like 170b), but they have very low liquid assets, and extremely high debt ( I think it was 50-70b). They are carrying $10 in debt for every $1 cash they have.

If they can't generate cash I expect they may have to start liquidating assets in 1-2 years.

[rebelscum86]

5 hours ago, ZattMurdock said:

I love The Ring but either Get Out or Hereditary are better imho. His true strength was going full blown epic with the Pirates trilogy. That and Rango.

 

I would also give it to The Ring, hugely effective on me since I was a videofile. Hereditary is solid but didn't affect me much (I think even Paranormal Activity was creepier and more clever). I won't watch Get Out b/c I hate deceptive advertising; which was also a knock I had on Hereditary though I was able to get some spoilers for that one to confirm the genre.

[emoviefan]

Yeah movies are too long and people are getting sick of it.  That's why Avatar:WOW, John Wick Chpt4, and Guardians 3 bombed. Oh wait no they didn't.  Maybe length is not the issue maybe it is how the length is used. A 3 hour movie can feel like 90 minutes and a 90 minute movie can feel like 3 hours. 

[JohnnyGossamer]

22 minutes ago, rebelscum86 said:

 

I would also give it to The Ring, hugely effective on me since I was a videofile. Hereditary is solid but didn't affect me much (I think even Paranormal Activity was creepier and more clever). I won't watch Get Out b/c I hate deceptive advertising; which was also a knock I had on Hereditary though I was able to get some spoilers for that one to confirm the genre.

I didn't realize Get Out's marketing was deceptive... Please elaborate.

 

Gore's masterpiece is Mousehunt.

[DAJK]

You know, maybe it’s Canada. Maybe it’s just the West Coast. But Indy’s doing pretty well here tonight walk-up wise. Much stronger than the Flash a couple of weeks ago.

[rebelscum86]

4 hours ago, DAR said:

One thing the Walt Disney company will never have is low cash

If you go to yahoo finance, open Disney's 10k, look for consolidate balance sheets in part 2, at close of fiscal year 2022 they had $11.6b cash, true, but there are 2 important caveats. They were down 4.5b in just cash from 2021, and their payables were $20.2b almost 10b more than cash.

their total current assets minus total current liabilities just left them $25m. That's razor thin. They CAN pay their bills but they CAN'T afford any new interest expense at that margin, especialy with the higher interest rates, and after all these losses this year I expect it to be worse next report.

this is a company that spends tens of billions to make single digit billions and they are now spending more in expenses to earn less. Their operating expenses were 65b in 2019 for a net revenue of 10b. In 2022 their operating expenses were 75b for a net revenue of 3b.

[cannastop]

1 hour ago, filmlover said:

Ruby Gillman being a nonstarter could be seen coming from miles away given how cheap it looked.

Gotta look better than that at least. That's the issue with cutting budgets.

it looks REALLY bad when seen on a big screen, from the trailers.

[Eric the Minion]

26 minutes ago, emoviefan said:

Yeah movies are too long and people are getting sick of it.  That's why Avatar:WOW, John Wick Chpt4, and Guardians 3 bombed. Oh wait no they didn't.  Maybe length is not the issue maybe it is how the length is used. A 3 hour movie can feel like 90 minutes and a 90 minute movie can feel like 3 hours. 

I know that. I still think it's annoying and that a lot of blockbuster movies today feel padded and don't use their long runtimes well. Just because long movies are successful doesn't mean I can't criticize them.

[rebelscum86]

22 minutes ago, JohnnyGossamer said:

I didn't realize Get Out's marketing was deceptive... Please elaborate.

 

Gore's masterpiece is Mousehunt.

 

I honestly have no clue what Get Out is about from the trailer and I don't consider that a good thing. I'm buying a product not a tone. It's probably a thriller, but is it paranormal? Is the sound just sound track or worse marketing or is it diegetic sound and it's a hypnotism thing? guy goes home to meet girlfriend's family and it doesn't go as planned he might be in danger is not enough.

A trailer should give the log line / high concept and genre. A24  is terribly guilty of this and why their Cinemascores are so bad. It was like pulling teeth trying to find out if Hereditary was paranormal. I like the paranormal. I have 0 interest in it's just actually mental health. I don't appreciate horror movies where the twist is what genre is it? If it's paranormal or monsters I will watch, if it's not I won't like it.

[JustWatching]

27 minutes ago, DAJK said:

You know, maybe it’s Canada….But Indy’s doing pretty well here tonight walk-up wise. Much stronger than the Flash a couple of weeks ago.

Well, when everything else is on fire you may as well hit the movies.

[Deathlife]

55 minutes ago, rebelscum86 said:

Their 10k report. (I'm a CPA so I fully understand it) It's scary. They have tremendous value in assets and IP (I think it was something like 170b), but they have very low liquid assets, and extremely high debt ( I think it was 50-70b). They are carrying $10 in debt for every $1 cash they have.

If they can't generate cash I expect they may have to start liquidating assets in 1-2 years.

 

I don't buy this. I'm a credit risk manager, so I know some of this stuff too.

 

Disney's debt is $48bn and they have cash of $9bn however they are NOT going to use their liquid assets to pay off amortized debt. That doesn't make any sense.

 

Yes, their debt is relatively high but 1. Disney has huge revenue and receivables 2. They have massive market capitalization of around $188 bn, they could very easily raise capital if required. Disney's EBIT covers its debt by 4.4 times. Disney grew EBIT by around 20% and if it keeps growing they will wipe off that debt fairly easily.

 

Disney's free cash flow for the last few years was impacted by the pandemic but they are quite clearly in recovery.

 

Disney isn't any significant problems at all unless their park business collapses which is unlikely.

 

[MattW]

Interesting we're getting so many openings in the same range, Fast x, TF7, Flash, Indie, MI7 looks to be in that range and possibly Oppenheimer as well. Does this mean blue beetle and/or Meg 2 break out?

[DAJK]

It’s like 2014 all over again when everything was opening in the 90M range  Only now, it’s the 60M range, and budgets are even higher.

[cannastop]

3 minutes ago, MattW said:

Does this mean blue beetle and/or Meg 2 break out?

no?