Steve Rogers Birthday Bash Weekend Thread | 5-Day #s: Indy 83.4, Elemental 18, Spidey 17.65, Sound of Freedom 14.2, No Hard Feelings 11.3

[Flopped]

12 minutes ago, VanillaSkies said:

Sorry if already answered, but out of curiosity are the major chains in the US having discount Tuesday today? Or because it’s a holiday it’s regular pricing?

 

I’m so curious to see what todays numbers will be for everything. I’m not sure what to expect.

People are Fourth of July'ing today. Numbers will drop. That said a lot of people have the rest of the week off. 

Edited July 4, 2023 by Flopped

[abracadabra1998]

Quick math-

 

despicable me 3 opened to 72 million in a weekend with the 4th on the following Tuesday back in 2017, and dropped 27% from Sunday to Monday. That ended up having a 3.66x multiplier.

 

Now Indy dropped 35%. They’re targeting different audiences of course, and it remains to be seen how it’ll be affected by MI and Oppenheimer, but I don’t think it’s unreasonable to see a 3x multiplier for Indy based on this

[VanillaSkies]

1 minute ago, abracadabra1998 said:

Quick math-

 

despicable me 3 opened to 72 million in a weekend with the 4th on the following Tuesday back in 2017, and dropped 27% from Sunday to Monday. That ended up having a 3.66x multiplier.

 

Now Indy dropped 35%. They’re targeting different audiences of course, and it remains to be seen how it’ll be affected by MI and Oppenheimer, but I don’t think it’s unreasonable to see a 3x multiplier for Indy based on this

I do have to wonder how Indy having a fairly older audience will affect its legs. It certainly wasn’t frontloaded over the weekend. Maybe it can pull some decent numbers even with competition, though MI also pulls in an older audience… 

[The Dark Alfred]

THE FLASH is really gunning for the biggest domestic SH tentpole flop of all time. Trailing GREEN LANTERN and somehow posting even worse dailies.

[Deathlife]

Those Flash numbers...oooooffffff.

 

What makes it more of a historic bomb is because it had a relatively empty second weekend to at least maintain a little momentum. The movie completely cratered on its own.

 

I'm one of the guys that hates the rank negativity but man, there's no way to spin The Flash's performance. It's a total disaster.

[Flopped]

Indy will outgross The Flasher sooner than expected. 

[Flopped]

The Blackening is not the hit the internet thinks it is. Lionsgate paid $20M for it before marketing. In other words it was more expensive for Lionsgate than M3GAN for Uni and EVIL DEAD RISE for WB (though M3GAN's marketing campaign was very robust). 

Edited July 4, 2023 by Flopped

[Flopped]

Speaking of EVIL DEAD RISE, it's been #1 on Max since its release on June 23rd. Isn't it nice to make ~150M in theatres and then do well on streaming too instead of just be dumped on streaming? 

 

https://flixpatrol.com/top10/hbo/

[interiorgatordecorator]

2 hours ago, abracadabra1998 said:

the funniest cinema experience I’ve had was my second time seeing TGM. Went to a neighborhood, old school theater, so me and my friends were the youngest there by far. So many older people would be talking to the screen like it was Dora the explorer lmfao. Stuff like “you’ve got this Maverick!” And “go get them!” 
 

it was honestly endearing 

 

cute

[Valonqar]

25 minutes ago, Flopped said:

The Blackening is not the hit the internet thinks it is. Lionsgate paid $20M for it before marketing. In other words it was more expensive for Lionsgate than M3GAN for Uni and EVIL DEAD RISE for WB (though M3GAN's marketing campaign was very robust). 

 

Wait someone thinks that's a hit? LMAO! It made 15M dom, zero OS (not released most likely), while EDR made 67M dom/146M WW and M3gan 95M dom/179M WW. Since horror is cheap those 2 are super profitable even with robust marketing.

[jedijake]

Did I read/hear right that Indy made $11 million yesterday? That's pretty fantastic.

[AN9815]

Do you guys think South Korea performance for Elemental can be replicated in Japan? Or at least overperform compared to expectations? I think if it does the WW total could end up looking pretty decent, not a hit but not a money loser

[Flopped]

5 minutes ago, jedijake said:

Did I read/hear right that Indy made $11 million yesterday? That's pretty fantastic.

The more I sit on it, the more I like it. 

[KP1025]

10 minutes ago, AN9815 said:

Do you guys think South Korea performance for Elemental can be replicated in Japan? Or at least overperform compared to expectations? I think if it does the WW total could end up looking pretty decent, not a hit but not a money loser

 

If it wants any hope of great legs there the Disney+ date needs to be pushed to like Christmas or next year, even if just for Japan. Audiences there have shown again and again they don't mind waiting a few months to watch for free ever since Disney+ debuted in the market.

[AniNate]

10 minutes ago, AN9815 said:

Do you guys think South Korea performance for Elemental can be replicated in Japan? Or at least overperform compared to expectations? I think if it does the WW total could end up looking pretty decent, not a hit but not a money loser

 

Well it's hard to get a good read on what its ceiling is at this point, it increased in so many markets this week and only dropped like 10% overall. Feel like $30m at least is a good expectation in Japan, but I wouldn't be shocked if it ends up breaking out similarly there, has a decent distance from How Do You Live's release date. 

 

Edited July 4, 2023 by AniNate

[Krissykins]

42 minutes ago, Flopped said:

The Blackening is not the hit the internet thinks it is. Lionsgate paid $20M for it before marketing. In other words it was more expensive for Lionsgate than M3GAN for Uni and EVIL DEAD RISE for WB (though M3GAN's marketing campaign was very robust). 

 

14 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

 

Wait someone thinks that's a hit? LMAO! It made 15M dom, zero OS (not released most likely), while EDR made 67M dom/146M WW and M3gan 95M dom/179M WW. Since horror is cheap those 2 are super profitable even with robust marketing.

Well they did only put it in 1,700 theatres. Lionsgate got the worldwide rights for just shy of $20m. Production budget was $5m. 
 

It’s unusual though, Lionsgate usually sell off international rights on smaller films to make money, but they’re releasing it here themselves in August .

[Krissykins]

12 minutes ago, AN9815 said:

Do you guys think South Korea performance for Elemental can be replicated in Japan? Or at least overperform compared to expectations? I think if it does the WW total could end up looking pretty decent, not a hit but not a money loser

Elemental does have the extra bonus of a UK release just as English schools stop for the summer. 
 

Not sure if that’s enough to get it to $400-500m though. 

[Valonqar]

17 minutes ago, AN9815 said:

Do you guys think South Korea performance for Elemental can be replicated in Japan? Or at least overperform compared to expectations? I think if it does the WW total could end up looking pretty decent, not a hit but not a money loser

 

This kind of nitpicking is only what fans care about. In the industry world, it's either profit or not. So what we call not a hit but not a money loser (this, TLM) is not a hit. Plain and simple. Did a movie make profit? No? Not a hit. Nobody makes big summer movies to only break even. 

[JustLurking]

25 minutes ago, AN9815 said:

Do you guys think South Korea performance for Elemental can be replicated in Japan? Or at least overperform compared to expectations? I think if it does the WW total could end up looking pretty decent, not a hit but not a money loser

If Disney has the D+ release far enough (aka around christmas) for Japan then perhaps, otherwise pretty unlikely

[AniNate]

21 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

 

This kind of nitpicking is only what fans care about. In the industry world, it's either profit or not. So what we call not a hit but not a money loser (this, TLM) is not a hit. Plain and simple. Did a movie make profit? No? Not a hit. Nobody makes big summer movies to only break even. 

 

The nuances matter even to them. There's a difference in the impact of a huge opener that crashes and a terrible opener that ends up finding legs. The former is indicative that audiences didn't care for the final product much and the latter indicates the movie was not promoted well. If Elemental legs its way to a not embarrassing total, the people who were actually involved in producing the movie should (and I think will) be let off the hook, and I don't think Pixar will have to deal with the kind of intense creative and budgetary scrutiny in the future they might have if Elemental just flared out at like 200m ww.

Edited July 4, 2023 by AniNate