July 5 & 6 Numbers Thread

[M37]

1 hour ago, abracadabra1998 said:

Tbh I'm just hyped for some box office wins:

- Mission Impossible is likely either close to matching or slightly surpassing Fallout. Despite its bloated budget, that's mostly due to covid reasons, it was highly impacted by it

- Oppenheimer doing Dunkirk domestic numbers, plus its international gross (probably much more DOM-centered than most Nolan movies, but that's the nature of the movie's topic), will be something like 350-400. Even if less, with a reported $100 M budget, it's a huge win for non-IP dramas

- Barbie gonna do gangbusters, the hype is there. Like someone said, feels like Mario, TGM kinda hype.

 

I'm just excited for some sunny headlines after the gloooooooooomy June ones.

Just sayin, if you want be excited about wins, then maybe don’t get too far ahead and set expectations at a level where films can have a solid result and still come up short 

 

Like I’m still taking the under on vs Fallout and Dunkirk respectively 

[AMC Theaters Enjoyer]

51 minutes ago, Eric Bunny said:

I mean maybe Inception was just merely the exception to the rule and not what we should expect him to make every single time? Maybe I'm missing something, but wholly original features earning nearly 190M domestically and 500M+ worldwide is pretty darn impressive if you ask me, especially with in the IP hellscape we live in today. Plus Tenet still made a killing overseas despite harsh restrictions. I really don't think we need this bizarre hyperbole here and act all faux concerned on one of only like 5 directors who can successfully sell a movie on their name.

I would say it’s him, Cameron, Tarantino and Peele. Can’t think of a fifth director.

[rebelscum86]

10 minutes ago, rebelscum86 said:

Saw Sound of Freedom tonight (Thursday) in a sold out theater. I was shocked. I can't remember the last time I sat next to someone not in my party at a theater. I live farily rural / suburban area, drive past cows a lot, so sell outs are not normal. There is a chance this movie expands and really breaks out more than it has. I could see it doing well this week and going away with around 30-40m. But it does have a chance to break out and double that.

it's a 7/10, but very powerful 7/10 and will emotionally affect how some people view the world. I'm close to this subject. I audit non profits that work with kids, the 1st grant I ever wrote was for a foster care system in Uganda, I have been a child advocate for courts, and ran an anti trafficking advocacy group for a few years so I talk about this subject a lot to my wife, but it has never hit her the way seeing the movie has. 

She was an emotional wreck tonight, and has all 4 of our kids in bed with her right now. The movie had a special message after asking people to spread the word on the topic and buy pay it forward tickets by using a QR code on screen. Every single person in the theater stayed for the special message (some who got up stood by the exit when they noticed the count down clock to the message) and I counted 11 phones raised scanning the QR code.

out side the theater multiple large groups where talking and interacting with other groups like they had a connection now. I'm in an area this movie will do well and it's close to me, but if what I saw spreads, this movie easily makes 75+m. 

it's a fascinating box office story and marketing campaign.

oh also, quirky / interesting moment, in the special message Caviezel eludes to Hollywood trying to stop the movie and it getting shelved for 5 years; after the message some one in the crowd stood up and yelled if anyone doesn't know it was Disney that wouldn't release the movie. 

people booed Disney and a few different women yelled stop taking your kids to Disney. So Disney does have a brand image problem in rural areas and probably are losing customers on principal.

[MrPink]

Why would Dunkirk be expected to do 'peak Nolan' standards? Nobody sane had the expectation that Dunkirk could match Inception or even Interstellar really at the time. How much a movie can do also depends a lot on the subject material and Dunkirk had an obvious ceiling, given that it's the highest grossing war film worldwide. Now Tenet is a question mark and I'm sure it probably would have grossed less than Interstellar due to mixed WOM (which has subsequently hurt his reputation a bit I'd imagine), but think most would agree under normal circumstances it would have grossed more than Dunkirk WW.

 

Nolan is not as big of a draw as he was 10 years ago, but he still remains one of the biggest directors and one of the very few who can actually draw people at all. Part of his decline is directly a result of what he's choosing to make these days too....and that's fine. Like Oppenheimer is not likely to match Dunkirk because it's a biopic in the end just like Dunkirk wasn't gonna match his previous films because it was a English centric war film.  But it can still be a success not just off studio standards but also what the project is.

Edited July 7, 2023 by MrPink

[DAJK]

Seriously guys, if Oppenheimer wasn’t directed by Nolan and was just a WW2 3-hour R-rated biopic about the inventor of the atomic bomb, it would be opening to like 8M in 2023.

 

Of course Nolan is a draw.

[rebelscum86]

12 minutes ago, DAJK said:

Seriously guys, if Oppenheimer wasn’t directed by Nolan and was just a WW2 3-hour R-rated biopic about the inventor of the atomic bomb, it would be opening to like 8M in 2023.

 

Of course Nolan is a draw.

 

I don't even like Nolan and this is a true statement. His only movie I like is the Prestige, but the guy produces hits out of things I would never expect to make money

Edited July 7, 2023 by rebelscum86

[eeetooki]

Some people really need to stop expecting 1 billion box office or else FLOP standards. It's ridiculous. 

[emoviefan]

37 minutes ago, rebelscum86 said:

oh also, quirky / interesting moment, in the special message Caviezel eludes to Hollywood trying to stop the movie and it getting shelved for 5 years; after the message some one in the crowd stood up and yelled if anyone doesn't know it was Disney that wouldn't release the movie. 

people booed Disney and a few different women yelled stop taking your kids to Disney. So Disney does have a brand image problem in rural areas and probably are losing customers on principal.

[abracadabra1998]

51 minutes ago, M37 said:

Just sayin, if you want be excited about wins, then maybe don’t get too far ahead and set expectations at a level where films can have a solid result and still come up short 

 

Like I’m still taking the under on vs Fallout and Dunkirk respectively 

 

(Jk you’re right, but a guy’s gotta dream sometimes)

[emoviefan]

30 minutes ago, abracadabra1998 said:

 

(Jk you’re right, but a guy’s gotta dream sometimes)

Just have to keep telling myself if DR does go under Fallout  there are alot of factors and not to doom and gloom.  Real world spy action has a ceiling and only Skyfall due to a perfect storm was able to break out of that.  Also that audience has not come back anywhere near full strength post covid and may never and they have 3 movies targeting them in a 3 week period. I will believe like Ted Lasso though. 

[Austin]

1 hour ago, DAJK said:

Do be fair, Gen Z doesn’t know who Steven Spielberg is.

Wtf?!?!

 

This can't be that true. I'm 19 and I knew who Spielberg was before I got into movies. Hell, I knew who Nolan and Tarantino were. Spielberg has to be the most recognizable director name of maybe all time? Kubrick might be for the older generations, idk, I just got into movies this February.

Edited July 7, 2023 by Austin

[Inceptionzq]

2 hours ago, MovieMan89 said:

I’d wager gen z on the whole doesn’t even know or care about the name “Christopher Nolan.” Which is a very alarming drop off on relevancy considering Nolan had Millennials en masse foaming at the mouth about how he was the greatest thing to ever happen to media for a stretch in the 00s/early 10s. 

That’s a very bold statement… it’s not like all of Gen Z were babies when his Batman movies, Inception, and Interstellar released. And the movies certainly didn’t fall off the face of the planet by the time the younger sect were old enough to watch them. I mean, Gen Z here and my username is named for one of his movies

[Mulder]

Gen Z is so damn generalized it's stupid to even use it. Just talk about the age group you mean.

[MovieMan89]

2 hours ago, DAJK said:

Seriously guys, if Oppenheimer wasn’t directed by Nolan and was just a WW2 3-hour R-rated biopic about the inventor of the atomic bomb, it would be opening to like 8M in 2023.

 

Of course Nolan is a draw.

Yes this is true of course, my point is Nolan isn’t enough of a draw now to stop it from potentially bombing anyways. It needs the strong reception very much. 

[Ryan Reynolds]

2 hours ago, AMC Theaters Enjoyer said:

I would say it’s him, Cameron, Tarantino and Peele. Can’t think of a fifth director.

[JustLurking]

23 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Yes this is true of course, my point is Nolan isn’t enough of a draw now to stop it from potentially bombing anyways. It needs the strong reception very much. 

There is nothing in presales suggesting this is bombing? What's even your line for this film "bombing" exactly?

[Sckathian]

47 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Yes this is true of course, my point is Nolan isn’t enough of a draw now to stop it from potentially bombing anyways. It needs the strong reception very much. 

The point though is Nolan has a draw due to the quality of his work. So people go in expecting a strong reception, doesn't mean there will be one but it does mean his movies get their foot in the door over anyone else.

 

'Nolan' is essentially the franchise.

[Mulder]

34 minutes ago, JustLurking said:

There is nothing in presales suggesting this is bombing? What's even your line for this film "bombing" exactly?

He doesn't read the tracking thread so don't even bother.

[LegionWrex]

Just now, Mulder said:

He doesn't read the tracking thread so don't even bother.

[JustLurking]

1 minute ago, Mulder said:

He doesn't read the tracking thread so don't even bother.

So basically the film is going to bomb because he says so even though nothing really suggests it? Alrighty then.

 

FWIW I think Universal will be pretty happy if they make anything from Oppenheimer at all (which from the looks of it they will), this film really just seems like a way for them to get goodwill with Nolan so they can get his next more commercially-appealing film, making some profit with a 3-hour r-rated biopic is just the cherry on top