Weekday numbers July 10-13

[Rocketracoon]

Wonder if SOF is negatively affecting MI7 and taking some of its audience away

[Bob Train]

I have a hard time seeing MI7 second weekend being that low when MI6 second weekend was 35m, even with Barbenheimer looking huge

[M37]

1 hour ago, XXR Electric Touch said:

So let's say MI7 is making $10M today. I know it's not totally equivalent but Super Mario opened on a Wednesday to $31.7M and finished Sunday at $204.6M

 

I can't imagine MI7 is more backloaded than a non-summer kids film (especially since MI7 has already done $7M in previews). I'm having a hard time seeing MI7 over $65M Wed-Sun.

This math meshes with what I worked out in the tracking thread a few weeks back

On 6/28/2023 at 11:30 AM, M37 said:

Then looked at mid-week openings: Mario & Air, Thanksgiving week, and previous 4th of July mid-week releases like Terminator: Genesis and Far From Home. Won't list all the data, but generally these films made 4.5-5.5 times their True Wed total from Thursday through Sunday, with outliers explainable by circumstance like holidays or lack of previews, or 5.5-6.5x Wed for the 5 day (not including previews)

Last week, Indy made nearly 6.9x for its Wed (July 5th) from that Wed through Sunday. Can't really see MI7 going much higher than that. A $9M True Wed --> $60-$70M for the entire 5-day opening, including previews,

[charlie Jatinder]

not trolling, what went wrong here?

there is absolutely nothing wrong on paper. 

Reviews - check
Reception - check
Franchise goodwill - check

Tom Cruise is probably at career high. This should be opening to $125M+ 5 days, may struggle to even hit $75M.

[TheFlatLannister]

Ok, so Orlando running cold for Mi7 wasn't some crazy aberration. 

[LegionWrex]

1 minute ago, across the Jat verse said:

not trolling, what went wrong here?

there is absolutely nothing wrong on paper. 

Reviews - check
Reception - check
Franchise goodwill - check

Tom Cruise is probably at career high. This should be opening to $125M+ 5 days, may struggle to even hit $75M.

Too much competition is my guess. Summer is insanely crowded this year and I think it's possible some audiences are saving their money for other things.

[TheFlatLannister]

2 minutes ago, across the Jat verse said:

not trolling, what went wrong here?

there is absolutely nothing wrong on paper. 

Reviews - check
Reception - check
Franchise goodwill - check

Tom Cruise is probably at career high. This should be opening to $125M+ 5 days, may struggle to even hit $75M.

I feel like the Barbie-Oppy hype is just so suffocating right now. It's crippling any other blockbusters from breaking out. 

[Bob Train]

1 minute ago, LegionWrex said:

Too much competition is my guess. Summer is insanely crowded this year and I think it's possible some audiences are saving their money for other things.

I really don’t think it’s that, we haven’t had a movie perform well at the box office since Spider-Verse, going on a month and a half. Indy was the only other major release in the last 4 weeks.

[charlie Jatinder]

1 minute ago, LegionWrex said:

Too much competition is my guess. Summer is insanely crowded this year and I think it's possible some audiences are saving their money for other things.

Def not, this is what Summer is supposed to & always have been.

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

33 minutes ago, LegionGPT said:

I mean if it does like 8.8 wed or whatever then like 40M FSS into losing all PLF... 🤷‍♂️

 

30 minutes ago, cannastop said:

for the second weekend of Mission Impossible... maybe?

Ahhh I was thinking about this weekend. Totally spaced on you meaning next weekend. Yea that makes sense then.

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

I disagree about Cruise at a career peak. But I've posted this endlessly--the idea of M7 receiving a Top gun bump was nuts. This is the 7th installment of a franchise which was already revived and hit a peak. Regardless of reviews, the ceiling was hit and Barbie/Oppenheimer weekend is too devouring. There was just no reason that more people outside the franchise fans would need to see this. What was the narrative? 

[Pinacolada]

4 minutes ago, across the Jat verse said:

not trolling, what went wrong here?

there is absolutely nothing wrong on paper. 

Reviews - check
Reception - check
Franchise goodwill - check

Tom Cruise is probably at career high. This should be opening to $125M+ 5 days, may struggle to even hit $75M.

As FlatLannister said, all the hype right now feels like it's for BarbenHeimer. So release date is a biggie.

 

And then a big one I think is the "Part One" in the title. From the beginning I thought that was a terrible idea. I saw Asteroid City the other day with my cousin and he scoffed at the title reveal during the trailer (he steers clear of trailers online). Anecdotal, but I do think there's an apathy towards that.

 

I also thought the marketing strategy was weird. First trailer was great but it came our a year before the movie. 2nd trailer was pretty mid and was not even 2 months before the movies release. Weird.

 

And then perhaps SoF is also stealing some thunder for older folks/conservatives/a big part of our population

 

Not gonna doom and gloom yet, but man this sucks to read. Hopefully the weekend will see a big kick up

[Bob Train]

Paramount sucks at choosing release dates, between D&D Transformers MI7 and TMNT. They’ve carefully chosen the worst possible release date for all of them. No wonder they are doing the worst out of all the major studios.

Edited July 13, 2023 by Bob Train

[M37]

4 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

I feel like the Barbie-Oppy hype is just so suffocating right now. It's crippling any other blockbusters from breaking out. 

I do think this is part of it, coming on the heels of Indy’s last hurrah too, and all the attention SOF is sucking up to boot. The 7th entry in a franchise - and a “Part 1” at that - is one that got slid down the priority list 

[TheFlatLannister]

FWIW, I still think legs will be super strong even with all the competition. I’m just not really expecting anything over $250M DOM anymore. 
 

$240M/$400M OS-C/ $70M China 

this should still clear $700M 

[Borobudur]

Cruise fatigue kick in. 

[Bob Train]

Does Part one really matter that much? Harry Potter DH part one was one of the biggest of the franchise. Mockingjay one was bigger than two.

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

The biggest OW by a female director:

 

1. Captain Marvel- 153.4m (technically because co-credit)

2. Frozen 2- 130.2m (animated + co-credit)

3. Wonder Woman- 103.2m

----------

 

The highest grossing films by a female director:

1. Frozen 2- 477.4m

2. Captain Marvel- 426.8m

3. Wonder Woman- 412.6m

4. Frozen- 400.7m

5. Shrek- 267.7m

6. Alvin and Chipmunks: The Squeakquel- 219.6m

7. Twilight- 192.8m

8. Pitch Perfect 2- 184.3m

9. Black Widow- 183.7m

10. What Women Want- 182.8m

 

Barbie is gunning for at least top 3 opening and top 5 overall finish total

 

[Cooper Legion]

I think the 7 is much more important than the pt1

[Bob Train]

17 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

I feel like the Barbie-Oppy hype is just so suffocating right now. It's crippling any other blockbusters from breaking out. 

Sound of Freedom and Insidious V just broke out so not sure that’s true