TOM CRUISE LOVES HIS POPCORN. MOVIES. POPCORN: THE WEEKEND THREAD | We are just waiting for Barbenheimer here

[Algebra]

22 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

On the contrary, Flash and Indy got absolutely trashed by outlets (rightfully so). MI7 is being treated with much more delicacy. 

Because MI is just shy of The Flash and Indy5’s WW totals in its first weekend. And MI and Cruise movies are about multipliers, not Opening weekends.

 

Not remotely comparable

[JohnnyGossamer]

2 minutes ago, Austin said:

Realistically speaking, is that possible for the movie reach Puss in Boots 2 DOM or even $200M DOM?

No. Ceiling is likely something like 160M.... Maybe, maybe 170M. Even still, if it flirts with or goes over 500M+ WW I can't see it not being painted as a success as that's the breakeven. Everything else (given word or mouth there should be a lot of everything else) that comes after is gravy.

[M37]

Disney's last three July 4th weekend openings totals

• Lone Ranger (2013) = $89M Dom / $260.5 WW
• The BFG (2016) = $55.5M dom / $195.2M WW
• Indiana Jones 5 (2023) = ~$170M dom / $350M (??) WW

The last success was Ratatouille ($206/$624), but then the Pixar films got moved back to mid-June/Father's Day weekends

 

And its crazy how much of the compact schedule in May/June (5 consecutive $55M+ openings) and now late July (MI7, Barbenheimer) was the result of wanting to give Indy sufficient breathing room to do its thing

 

[Krissykins]

52 minutes ago, kayumanggi said:

 

Wonder if this can get to $300m despite Barbie next weekend. 
 

3 minutes ago, vale9001 said:

Variety too severe with MI? 

 

 

Variety for the past two years are so have been very budget focused. MI7 will be fine, it’ll make money because it’s so much stronger than Indiana Jones. 
 

Indiana Jones is the bomb of the year. Impressive when Flash also opened a few weeks prior. 

[Liiviig 1998]

Top 5 next weekend thoughts

 

Barbie 148M

Oppie.  70M

MI7.      25M

SOF.      13M

Insidious 7M

[Brainbug]

14 minutes ago, ZattMurdock said:

Once again I ask, LMAO are you fucking joking? I think you might need to eat a bit more of that crow, sir. I can understand qualms with the marketing of the film, but insisting on the narrative that Elemental isn’t a bonafide box office story success only shows that you haven’t eaten enough crow yet.

 

Im not joking. That 200M budget means it really NEEDS to reach something like 450-500M WW to safely break even and start making money. Its not guaranteed 100% at this point that it can continue its amazing legs. At the same time ofc, its entirely possible that its holds will continue. Since i failed to predict its legs when it opened, i personally wont make a prediction now how far its legs will take it.

 

Right now, it is NOT a "bonafide box office success story", right now its still a money loser. I totally get rooting for a film and wanting it to be as successfull as possible, but we need to still be down to earth. Again, its probably safe to assume that its great legs wont just stop now and that the film will indeed reach the profitable region rather soon, but it is not locked to use an infamours word around here.

 

 

[Water Bottle]

I wonder at what point are studios going to realize that the WGA strike (and now SAG) is hurting all their box office runs. 

 

There's no boycott or anything but I think MI would have done better it's first week if you had Tom Cruise on late night shows reminding the GA about the movie.

 

(I think Barbie/Oppenheimer will do well but other than that, is anyone gonna be confident for future summer releases? lol)

[ZattMurdock]

8 minutes ago, vale9001 said:

Variety too severe with MI? 

 

 

Not severe enough. But the film discourse is omg Tom Cruise savior of cinema never misses. 

[Brainbug]

Just now, Water Bottle said:

I wonder at what point are studios going to realize that the WGA strike (and now SAG) is hurting all their box office runs. 

 

There's no boycott or anything but I think MI would have done better it's first week if you had Tom Cruise on late night shows reminding the GA about the movie.

 

(I think Barbie/Oppenheimer will do well but other than that, is anyone gonna be confident for future summer releases? lol)

 

Meg 2 will be fine. That movies selling point is the pure reason it exists.

[WorkingonaName]

1 minute ago, ZattMurdock said:

omg Tom Cruise savior of cinema never misses. 

Wheres the lie here.

[Water Bottle]

Just now, Brainbug said:

 

Meg 2 will be fine. That movies selling point is the pure reason it exists.

 

Maybe but it would do better if Jason Statham could promote it. That's why he's the lead actor after all.

[cannastop]

On 7/14/2023 at 8:27 PM, cannastop said:

Up: $13,061,737

Inside Out: $11,544,080

Cars: $10,734,082

Elemental: $8,800,000?

Ratatouille: $7,455,594

WALL E: $6,422,186

Brave: $6,024,987

Cars 2: $5,655,857

Monsters University: $5,121,878

Cars 3: $3,119,815

Woop woop! Elemental raking in the dough on the 5th weekend with $8.7 million!

 

Probably going to rise with the actuals too

[cannastop]

Did anyone anticipate Elemental beating Indiana Jones 5 worldwide?

[Brainbug]

1 minute ago, Water Bottle said:

 

Maybe but it would do better if Jason Statham could promote it. That's why he's the lead actor after all.

 

Meg 2 was a bit of a joke answer 😅 i too think it will hurt all movies. Films like Haunted Mansion or Gran Turismo probably get a majority of publicity in the media though the actors' promotion campaign.

[ThomasNicole]

8 minutes ago, Liiviig 1998 said:

Top 5 next weekend thoughts

 

Barbie 148M

Oppie.  70M

MI7.      25M

SOF.      13M

Insidious 7M

Barbie 170M 

Oppie 68M 

MI7 26M 

SOF 17M 

Elemental 7M 

Insidious 6M 

 

Next weekend could be one of the best weekend post pandemic for theaters, with 2 punches opening great and excellent holdovers 

[abracadabra1998]

14 minutes ago, vale9001 said:

Variety too severe with MI? 

 

 

The headline itself is fine and fair. The way people will fail to read past it and look at context (more WW heavy, covid-inflated budget, great audience reactions meaning likely good legs) is annoying, and we all know it’ll happen

[FunkMiller]

Genuinely surprised MI:DR is coming in soft. I guess the audience general malaise is worse than expected. Should have strong legs though.

Edited July 16, 2023 by FunkMiller

[WorkingonaName]

Meg 2 can just have Wu Jing do the promotion. 

[JimmyB]

39 minutes ago, ZattMurdock said:

Nah, that’s still The Flash. I bet that if we get to the Deadline’s breaking downs next year (not sure if those are done anymore), film will make a killing on PVOD. The audience for Indy is old and don’t attend movie theaters anymore. I made my peace with that. But biggest bomb? Nah.

https://deadline.com/2023/04/biggest-box-office-bombs-2022-lowest-grossing-movies-1235325138/

[ThomasNicole]

Next month movies will be fine 

 

There’s tons of promotional material with the cast shot prior strike for all Haunted Mansion, Meg, TMNT and Gran Turismo 

 

Heck, even Haunting in Venice already shot some promotional with cast before the strike iirc, they’re just holding it