TOM CRUISE LOVES HIS POPCORN. MOVIES. POPCORN: THE WEEKEND THREAD | We are just waiting for Barbenheimer here

[ThomasNicole]

Just now, MovieMan89 said:

I disagree Elemental helps Pixar avoid getting budget slashed. I can absolutely see Iger being irate that the movie had this spectacularly leggy run and still potentially ends up a loser for them because of budget. Easy ammo for him to say “see, quality is irrelevant, the films are too expensive.” Vs if it bombed outright like OW suggested, maybe execs would view it more as a lack of appeal problem than budget one. 

I don’t see the correlation, the movie is having monster WOM because sure it’s connecting with audiences but it’s also a gorgeous movie to watch on big screen. Hard to make a case about how it would be just as leggy if it costs 100M and looks way worse.
 

Sure they can make it for 175M, so sure we can see some budget flutuation coming, they worked with this budgets before. But hard cuts like 200 to 100 isn’t happening. 
 

Pixar would lose their visual spectacle hook that is a big deal for them which would probably do way more bad than good for them. And also Disney surely wouldn’t like to lose the many technologies  Pixar develops while producing this movies and Disney uses them in all their other properties. 

[MovieMan89]

It would also be interesting to see if this somewhat odd dissonance between critics and audiences for blockbusters this year starts taking some of RT’s box office impact away? I think early initial ho hum critical reception absolutely hurt Guardians, Elemental, and Indy’s OWs (lol btw at all the conspirators who used to claim critics were bought by Disney).  Then it turned out audiences liked all of them significantly better, to the point even RT reception turned drastically more positive once audience reception was out there.
 

And then you have Mario which bypassed critical reception altogether and was a huge audience disconnect from the get go.  RT has been impacting box office for years now bc of how expensive movies got, but also bc  contrary to what some like to believe, critical consensus is usually relatively in line with audience on these big movies. If that is shifting, we could start to see RT’s relevance on box office fade… 

[ringedmortality]

8 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

I think early initial ho hum critical reception absolutely hurt Guardians

 

Guardians had good reviews

[MovieMan89]

3 minutes ago, ringedmortality said:

 

Guardians had good reviews

It started in the 70s and was giving big “this will end up around 60-65%” vibes for a bit, which we all know is terrible by MCU standards. Def did not help that lackluster OW, where it looked like it might even fall below AM3 if the exceptional WOM didn’t kick in immediately on Friday.  
 

Reviews got drastically better from opening on, which also happened with Elemental, Indy, and even Mario. Almost as if critics who hadn’t chimed in yet realized audiences were disagreeing with a lot of the other critics and didn’t wanna look out of touch…

Edited July 16, 2023 by MovieMan89

[DeeCee]

I'm back for #Barbenheimer.

 

 

[Eric Lasagna]

https://deadline.com/2023/07/theater-camp-searchlight-specialty-box-office-afire-lakota-nation-1235439331/

 

Quote

Searchlight Pictures’ Sundance-winning original comedy Theater Camp will take in an estimated $281,172 or $46.9k per theater at six locations opening weekend — the best limited opening for the distributor since Jojo Rabbit in the fall of 2019 ($349k in five locations). That’s after the A CinemaScore film on Sunday pulled ahead of Searchlight’s The Banshees Of Inisherin four-theater debut last year.

 

The number’s higher than Searchlight anticipated and the demographic mix a surprise at over 50% 25-34 year-olds,” said SVP Frank Rodriguez. “We didn’t expect that. It was a young audience. We got a lot of the older demos too. It’s a great spot to be in.”

 

This was lost in the shuffle, but this had a better average than Banshees of Inisherin, which had Oscar buzz. bigger stars, and was fresh off Three Billboards' success. This, Past Lives, and Asteroid City have been incredibly strong success stories this summer that sadly most aren't talking about. Unless Theater Camp gets shut out (seems unlikely? From what I can gather it's a good crowdpleaser), that and Past Lives are set to beat out last summer's biggest specialty hit Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris ($10.4M). A legit nice sign for the little guys, considering how rough things have been at the top of the big guys this summer.

[dudalb]

2 minutes ago, Eric Stickell said:

https://deadline.com/2023/07/theater-camp-searchlight-specialty-box-office-afire-lakota-nation-1235439331/

 

 

This was lost in the shuffle, but this had a better average than Banshees of Inisherin, which had Oscar buzz. bigger stars, and was fresh off Three Billboards' success. This, Past Lives, and Asteroid City have been incredibly strong success stories this summer that sadly most aren't talking about. Unless Theater Camp gets shut out (seems unlikely? From what I can gather it's a good crowdpleaser), that and Past Lives are set to beat out last summer's biggest specialty hit Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris ($10.4M). A legit nice sign for the little guys, considering how rough things have been at the top of the big guys this summer.

Maybe the sheer economics of filmmmakiing..it keeps getting more and more expensive will for studios to look at a :singles and doubles" strategy rather then go for a home run every time up at bat.

But then, someone I think mentioned the great screenwriter/novelist William Goldman comment that over  30 years as a sucessful screenwriter in Hollywood taught him one thing about the movie industry as far making sucessful movies goes: Nobody Knows Anything.

[ringedmortality]

8 minutes ago, Eric Stickell said:

This, Past Lives, and Asteroid City have been incredibly strong success stories this summer that sadly most aren't talking about. Unless Theater Camp gets shut out (seems unlikely? From what I can gather it's a good crowdpleaser), that and Past Lives are set to beat out last summer's biggest specialty hit Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris ($10.4M)

 

What's great about this is that, while Past Lives has Oscar Buzz and Asteroid City has Anderon, Theater Camp has literally nothing going for it.

 

There's no awards buzz, no big stars, and it's not like the directors have a strong fan base or anything.

 

Really shows how much that part of the market has recovered since 6 months ago.

Edited July 16, 2023 by ringedmortality

[dudalb]

BTW every studio is going to cut costs.I think was in the cards before the strike, and the strike might make ti more urgent.

[Krissykins]

4 minutes ago, dudalb said:

BTW every studio is going to cut costs.I think was in the cards before the strike, and the strike might make ti more urgent.

Yeh I think they really should too. The ridiculous budgets this summer have really hindered some films. Plus with $700m being the new $1bn, they have to be much more reasonable. 
 

Of course it’ll be too late for the films currently in production, like Deadpool 3 and MK2 which will see their budgets jump up. 

[abracadabra1998]

16 minutes ago, Eric Stickell said:

https://deadline.com/2023/07/theater-camp-searchlight-specialty-box-office-afire-lakota-nation-1235439331/

 

 

This was lost in the shuffle, but this had a better average than Banshees of Inisherin, which had Oscar buzz. bigger stars, and was fresh off Three Billboards' success. This, Past Lives, and Asteroid City have been incredibly strong success stories this summer that sadly most aren't talking about. Unless Theater Camp gets shut out (seems unlikely? From what I can gather it's a good crowdpleaser), that and Past Lives are set to beat out last summer's biggest specialty hit Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris ($10.4M). A legit nice sign for the little guys, considering how rough things have been at the top of the big guys this summer.

I agree it’s a great sign for the specialty market, but I wouldn’t count on this to breakout like the other two. Theater Camp seems like a movie that the NYC-LA theater kids would love, but not sure about when it expands 

[Eric Lasagna]

3 minutes ago, ringedmortality said:

 

What's great about this is that, while Past Lives has Oscar Buzz and Asteroid City has Anderons, Theater Camp has literally nothing going for it.

 

There's no awards buzz, not big stars, and it's not like the directors have a strong fan base or anything.

 

Really shows how much that part of the market has recovered since 6 months ago.

Yep. Looking at the trailer, Theater Camp looks like one of those cutesy, very quirky, but also very accessible Sundance movies. The kind of movie that always comes out in the summer, has an actor or two from a sitcom your parents watch, and you take your grandma who hates violent movies to it for a nice afternoon out. Some of my fondest theater memories are taking my mom to see stuff like Big Sick or Peanut Butter Falcon during a hot summer day, and I'm glad that kind of movie is still around and seems to still be profitable. I should probably find a way to convince my mom to see this. This is the kind of stuff she loves.

[Gopher]

Kind of impossible to understate how much COVID had to do with the budgets of these movies. Not just the tens of millions that insurance premiums and testing protocols would add, but any shutdown for productions of this scale balloons everything. DEAD RECKONING was the first major production to shut down due to COVID, over three years ago. No protocols to lean on. In classic MISSION form, the production had to make it up as they went.  

 

Obviously this isn't just COVID, either. DIAL OF DESTINY shut down for two months because Ford broke his shoulder. FAST X ate 10-15 mil from its director switch. Anybody on these boards saying "I would've just green-lit this movie at ___ budget" should probably understand there was never any intention for these budgets to climb as high as they did. 

 

ELEMENTAL is one of the few productions this summer COVID didn't really inflate the budget for. I would gauge the reason that every Pixar movie is reported to cost 175-200 mil is that's what it takes to keep the lights on there. The original contract Steve Jobs drew with Iger for Pixar had a loooot of indefinite provisions for certain resources and autonomy. There's a reason one of Iger's first announcements wasn't "Pixar movies will now cost ___ much  less" but "Toy Story 5 is now happening," because the benefit of operating costs being so high at Pixar is that it costs basically the same for them to make an original film as a sequel.

 

For me, the way to look at all this is the "long running franchise sequel" just doesn't have the same reward upon investment anymore for studios. FAST X spent over 100 million in above the line costs, the highest for any of those films. But if you're doing the 10th FAST & FURIOUS there's no way to bring that down. You either pay the 100 mil or you don't make the movie... and we're approaching the moment where the studios will consider just not making the movie. Famously ROGER RABBIT 2 never happened because Disney did the math and realized if the sequel had the exact level of success as the first, they'd barely break even because Spielberg and Zemeckis' deals were so lucrative. At that point, starting anew with something original is the far better option.

[dudalb]

12 minutes ago, Gopher said:

Kind of impossible to understate how much COVID had to do with the budgets of these movies. Not just the tens of millions that insurance premiums and testing protocols would add, but any shutdown for productions of this scale balloons everything. DEAD RECKONING was the first major production to shut down due to COVID, over three years ago. No protocols to lean on. In classic MISSION form, the production had to make it up as they went.  

 

Obviously this isn't just COVID, either. DIAL OF DESTINY shut down for two months because Ford broke his shoulder. FAST X ate 10-15 mil from its director switch. Anybody on these boards saying "I would've just green-lit this movie at ___ budget" should probably understand there was never any intention for these budgets to climb as high as they did. 

 

ELEMENTAL is one of the few productions this summer COVID didn't really inflate the budget for. I would gauge the reason that every Pixar movie is reported to cost 175-200 mil is that's what it takes to keep the lights on there. The original contract Steve Jobs drew with Iger for Pixar had a loooot of indefinite provisions for certain resources and autonomy. There's a reason one of Iger's first announcements wasn't "Pixar movies will now cost ___ much  less" but "Toy Story 5 is now happening," because the benefit of operating costs being so high at Pixar is that it costs basically the same for them to make an original film as a sequel.

 

For me, the way to look at all this is the "long running franchise sequel" just doesn't have the same reward upon investment anymore for studios. FAST X spent over 100 million in above the line costs, the highest for any of those films. But if you're doing the 10th FAST & FURIOUS there's no way to bring that down. You either pay the 100 mil or you don't make the movie... and we're approaching the moment where the studios will consider just not making the movie. Famously ROGER RABBIT 2 never happened because Disney did the math and realized if the sequel had the exact level of success as the first, they'd barely break even because Spielberg and Zemeckis' deals were so lucrative. At that point, starting anew with something original is the far better option.

COvidf played havoc with film budgets. I am pretty sure it swelled the costs for both Indy Jones 5 and MI7/well beyond what the studio planned to spend.

FOr Paramount, the siliver lining is I understand the really expensive scenes for MI8 were shot at the same time as MI7, and the remaining scenses are pretty much  stuff that will not cost a lot to film.

[MovieMan89]

I just realized Barbie hitting 200 would mean the all time non-Disney OW would be in play (208m). 

[MovieMan89]

Ooh, we should also have non-sequel OW and July record in play. Female directed should be a lock. This could get all kinds of interesting for potential records broken… 

Edited July 16, 2023 by MovieMan89

[Jonwo]

7 hours ago, TMP said:

Juror #2 about to be WB's top priority post-strike

Juror #2 I suspect only had a few weeks left to finish and given how quickly Clint Eastwood makes his film probably could get it completed within two weeks of the strike ending. 

 

I don't think it was ever likely for December simply because WB currently has three films that month. My guess is either January if the strike ends in October or mid to late next year.

[Jonwo]

42 minutes ago, Gopher said:

Kind of impossible to understate how much COVID had to do with the budgets of these movies. Not just the tens of millions that insurance premiums and testing protocols would add, but any shutdown for productions of this scale balloons everything. DEAD RECKONING was the first major production to shut down due to COVID, over three years ago. No protocols to lean on. In classic MISSION form, the production had to make it up as they went.  

 

Obviously this isn't just COVID, either. DIAL OF DESTINY shut down for two months because Ford broke his shoulder. FAST X ate 10-15 mil from its director switch. Anybody on these boards saying "I would've just green-lit this movie at ___ budget" should probably understand there was never any intention for these budgets to climb as high as they did. 

 

ELEMENTAL is one of the few productions this summer COVID didn't really inflate the budget for. I would gauge the reason that every Pixar movie is reported to cost 175-200 mil is that's what it takes to keep the lights on there. The original contract Steve Jobs drew with Iger for Pixar had a loooot of indefinite provisions for certain resources and autonomy. There's a reason one of Iger's first announcements wasn't "Pixar movies will now cost ___ much  less" but "Toy Story 5 is now happening," because the benefit of operating costs being so high at Pixar is that it costs basically the same for them to make an original film as a sequel.

 

For me, the way to look at all this is the "long running franchise sequel" just doesn't have the same reward upon investment anymore for studios. FAST X spent over 100 million in above the line costs, the highest for any of those films. But if you're doing the 10th FAST & FURIOUS there's no way to bring that down. You either pay the 100 mil or you don't make the movie... and we're approaching the moment where the studios will consider just not making the movie. Famously ROGER RABBIT 2 never happened because Disney did the math and realized if the sequel had the exact level of success as the first, they'd barely break even because Spielberg and Zemeckis' deals were so lucrative. At that point, starting anew with something original is the far better option.

This should be stickied here and on the Box Office reddit where they think studios love greenlighting movies with huge budgets. Covid shutdowns and protocol that a lot of films have budgets that were higher than when they started production and studios have had to just suck it up as a one-off cost that likely won't happen again. 

 

I would argue most studios prefer it if a film is on budget and on time, even better if it comes under budget. The most infamous example of films where the budget ballooned are Titanic which ended costing $200m but thankfully was a massive hit and Cleopatra which was simply too expensive to be able to cover its $44m budget and almost sank 20th Century Fox.

 

 

[emoviefan]

Really trying to figure what a good week for Mission would be to not get slaughtered come thursday .  6.5 monday, 8.0 discount tuesday, 5.7 wed and 4.6 thursday hopefully not lower. leads to 7.2 Friday,  10.8 saturday and 8.1 sunday Would get it close to 130 or so. Just fun to speculate. 

[Eric Lasagna]

11 minutes ago, Jonwo said:

This should be stickied here and on the Box Office reddit where they think studios love greenlighting movies with huge budgets.

On it like a bonnet.