The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[abracadabra1998]

Minneapolis-St.Paul Area Previews:

 

Taylor Swift: Eras Tour (T-43):

Day: T-43	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 16 theaters	77	5807	5807	12843	45.22

 

Comps (Last day I tracked each of these):

 

0.66x Barbie w/ EA at T-1: $14.6 Million

1.2x Oppenheimer at T-1: $12.6 Million

1.33x Mission Impossible w/ EA at T-0: $11.67 Million

 

Basically at T-43 it has outsold Oppenheimer the day before its release and Mission Impossible 1 hour before the start of its run... LOL

 

I might keep comping like this, because I think it's interesting and really do think it is useless to comp with normal releases because this is the most frontloaded thing I have ever seen. It's all about the smaller chains now; my 5 MTC1 theaters average over 95% capacity filled, but the other theaters range anything 3 to 25%.

[TheFlatLannister]

1 hour ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville greater region 

 

FRIDAY

 

TAYLOR SWIFT: THE ERA TOUR

 

T-43

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
190	7848	34353	22.8%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

N/A

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

11

 

COMPS

First few hours

 

Since there's no real good comp, i'll just bring out all the big guns. 

 

(8.979x) of Barbie

~$189M FRIDAY

 

(2.092x) of GOTG3

~$36.6M FRIDAY

 

(3.447x) of ATSV

~$59.8M FRIDAY

 

(12.740x) of Oppenheimer 

~$133.7M FRIDAY

 

(5.180x) of TLM

~$53.36M FRIDAY

 

Would I be shocked if the ERA TOUR takes the OW crown from Barbie, no...

 

Saturday sales are also really strong

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
286	7151	53776	13.4%

 

SELLOUTS

3

 

0.911x of Friday sales.  

 

Well, this looks like it won't be crazy frontloaded in the OW at least...

[Hawk]

1 hour ago, keysersoze123 said:

its true but I am sad that you are comparing swifties with magaidiots. Unless they are both 🙂

You two should both celebrate with a bud light.

[Inceptionzq]

9 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Denver is already at 3711 tickets sold. Comps won't really be useful, but just to get a sense of scale, at least locally: Barbie T-3 was at 4274 tickets sold. Let's see how frontloaded this is.

Taylor Swift Eras Tour Denver Friday

AMC Westminster 24

Total

1409

2629

53.59%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

1216

1335

91.09%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
6313	N/A	17009	37.12%	13	106

 

0.612	Barbie T-0
1.462	Doctor Strange MoM 11.5 hours
0.976	NWH 11 hours

[M37]

 

31 minutes ago, abracadabra1998 said:

I might keep comping like this, because I think it's interesting and really do think it is useless to comp with normal releases because this is the most frontloaded thing I have ever seen. It's all about the smaller chains now; my 5 MTC1 theaters average over 95% capacity filled, but the other theaters range anything 3 to 25%.

You actually gave me an idea 💡 with this comment …

 

A plausible comp for Eras Tour OD Friday  and this method (portion of final) might be the Barbie Blow-Out party showings on Wed (I believe we have an estimated final value for that portion?). Similar female heavy massive early sales rush & high ATP, and it’s not really about pace, since capacity will be limited, but rather just about total volume of sales 

 

Other high volume EA shows (Batman, TGM) might also work similarly 

[vafrow]

It looks like smaller Canadian chain, Landmark Cinemas, has added Taylor Swift Eras Tour shows. They have about 40 locations across Canada, and are probably the second biggest chain up here.

 

It's only in some locations it seems though, but, I can't see that lasting long. 

[keysersoze123]

10 minutes ago, M37 said:

 

You actually gave me an idea 💡 with this comment …

 

A plausible comp for Eras Tour OD Friday  and this method (portion of final) might be the Barbie Blow-Out party showings on Wed (I believe we have an estimated final value for that portion?). Similar female heavy massive early sales rush & high ATP, and it’s not really about pace, since capacity will be limited, but rather just about total volume of sales 

 

Other high volume EA shows (Batman, TGM) might also work similarly 

you are reaching at it looking at one single data point. As the article I posted, MTC 1/2 were ahead of the rest when it comes to presales. Other chains started late and so there would be some delay while their sales catch up. Also Friday shows in US start at 6PM and so its like previews. Saturday MTC1 has 5926 shows and MTC2 has 5233 shows already. I am expecting 25K shows nationwide on sat/sunday and will dominate the big screens. That may be 4m tickets available on each day. You can do the math on what is possible with inflated ticket prices across the board. SO MTC1 ratio would be way lower as smaller market has same ticket rates as Lincoln Square !!!

[Truckasaurus]

Good for theaters and all, but ngl, I'm gonna be very disappointed if a Taylor Swift concert movie breaks $100M. Sigh.

[abracadabra1998]

24 minutes ago, M37 said:

 

You actually gave me an idea 💡 with this comment …

 

A plausible comp for Eras Tour OD Friday  and this method (portion of final) might be the Barbie Blow-Out party showings on Wed (I believe we have an estimated final value for that portion?). Similar female heavy massive early sales rush & high ATP, and it’s not really about pace, since capacity will be limited, but rather just about total volume of sales 

 

Other high volume EA shows (Batman, TGM) might also work similarly 

Yeah basically what Key said, that would be a good way of calculating MTC1 gross but I’m not sure how much it can help us with Friday as a whole 

[XXR vs XXR]

35 minutes ago, Inceptionzq said:

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
6313	N/A	17009	37.12%	13	106

 

0.612	Barbie T-0
1.462	Doctor Strange MoM 11.5 hours
0.976	NWH 11 hours

 

Nearly matching NWH with a 50% (est.) ATP increase is wild. 
 

Most interestingly though, they could have easily jacked up prices another 30%+ and it would still sell just like it is right now.

[vale9001]

4 minutes ago, Truckasaurus said:

Good for theaters and all, but ngl, I'm gonna be very disappointed if a Taylor Swift concert movie breaks $100M. Sigh.

Can't Imagine when you'll hear about the 1.5B dollars at the concert business 

Edited September 1, 2023 by vale9001

[vale9001]

6 minutes ago, XXR Was Right said:

 

Nearly matching NWH with a 50% (est.) ATP increase is wild. 
 

Most interestingly though, they could have easily jacked up prices another 30%+ and it would still sell just like it is right now.

I have noticed seniors and children have the same price when usually seniors cost a little bit more than children .

Edited September 1, 2023 by vale9001

[Truckasaurus]

10 minutes ago, vale9001 said:

Can't Imagine when you'll hear about the 1.5B dollars at the concert business 

I'm completely fine with that.

[WrathOfHan]

The Equalizer movies always make consistent money. It would be nice to see it hit 40M for the 4 day.

[HummingLemon]

I'm confused by this era tour thing. Is it a recording of a concert?

[XXR vs XXR]

1 minute ago, HummingLemon said:

I'm confused by this era tour thing. Is it a recording of a concert?

Essentially, yes.

[HummingLemon]

1 minute ago, XXR Was Right said:

Essentially, yes.

Thanks

[charlie Jatinder]

MiniTC2 sales for Swift are relatively meh. Guess they started late and most fans booked in other cinemas before that. Let’s see how it ends the day.

[Flip]

AMC shows near me are almost double what they were this morning, clearly responding to the demand 

[PrinceRico]

Any numbers for The Equalizer. 7pm was full