The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[TheFlatLannister]

 

37 minutes ago, Maggie said:

That sucks. It will come UNDER 90M total tracking in the end

Maggie rn 😂

Edited July 9, 2023 by TheFlatLannister

[emoviefan]

One thing that can be said now matter how DR Part 1 does is that Part 2 will be in a much better position next year. Assuming the labor strife is settled  no later than early september or so and it comes out on June 28th as scheduled. Much less competition and DR part wom will only help it. 

[JustLurking]

The numbers seem perfectly fine for an MI opening to me, main issue is that legs will be weaker than usual between barbie exploding and oppenheimer stealing IMAX, but alas, it is what it is

[MattW]

49 minutes ago, Bob Train said:

They should've just moved MI7 up to this weekend if they wanted more IMAX

When they scheduled it they were thinking more distance from indi5 would help compared to distance from barbenheimer. Looks like a mistake now but at the time it was a good decision.

[emoviefan]

It bears repeating that RN had a weekend IM  previews of 13 and Fallout 10. The tuesday opening for this screws that up though. I really have a hard time believing that  the target audience will  not come through and this  does not hit 90 million by this time next week. If not then it is what it is I guess. 

[M37]

5 minutes ago, MattW said:

When they scheduled it they were thinking more distance from indi5 would help compared to distance from barbenheimer. Looks like a mistake now but at the time it was a good decision.

Indy (aka Disney) had IMAX locked up for 2 weeks originally, got it cut back to 10 days (plus previews). This current weekend was never an option for MI7

 

In the end, MI7 will have 9.5 exclusive days in IMAX/PLF, most this summer behind only GOTG3 (14 days), Flash (14, but only 7 exclusive), and Oppenheimer for like 3 weeks for IMAX

[Maggie]

5 minutes ago, emoviefan said:

. If not then it is what it is I guess. 

emoviefan reaching the *acceptance* stage of grief...

[Inceptionzq]

3 hours ago, across the Jat verse said:

Just like Drafthouse, where sales are 2nd only to Thor & BP, may be higher I haven't checked.

Weekend is highest since Doctor Strange 2, which it's barely behind. And because it's summer, wouldn't be surprised if it's highest since No Way Home for the first week

[emoviefan]

2 minutes ago, Maggie said:

emoviefan reaching the *acceptance* stage of grief...

well no Maggie normally the grief process does not start until the body is cold.  it still could go either way If there is any franchise that will deliver strong walkups it is this. I would like to believe the Core audience does not  just sit on their ass at home waiting for it to be on P+. Yeah i know Barbenheimer. They can see multiple movies. 

[ZackM]

Barbie Friday and Saturday

 

Friday

Theaters - 407

Showings - 3,074

Sold - 65,478

Total - 538,418

ATP - $16.02

 

Saturday
Theaters - 407
Showings - 3,066
Sold - 49,711
Total - 536,186
ATP - $15.53
 

[VanillaSkies]

With a 99% RT score, is it possible that the earlier shows actually spur more interest for the weekend? I know MI has quite a lot of track record to go off of, but I can’t help but think some of the Top Gun audience who are on the fence with his MI movies might decide to check it out if the WOM is as golden as the reviews suggest it might be. 
 

or is that just a pipe dream?

[JustLurking]

25 minutes ago, ZackM said:

Barbie Friday and Saturday

 

Friday

Theaters - 407

Showings - 3,074

Sold - 65,478

Total - 538,418

ATP - $16.02

 

Saturday
Theaters - 407
Showings - 3,066
Sold - 49,711
Total - 536,186
ATP - $15.53
 

Friday being ahead of thursday (without EA) bodes pretty well, does a 7x IM seem plausible?

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 7/7/2023 at 10:25 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
M:I 7	T-4	Jax	6	71	42	326	11,296	2.89%
		Phx	7	65	45	290	11,603	2.50%
		Ral	8	62	55	345	8,900	3.88%
	Total		21	198	142	961	31,799	3.02%
M:I 7 (EA)	T-2	Jax	3	3	16	87	418	20.81%
		Phx	2	2	0	26	363	7.16%
		Ral	1	1	14	36	111	32.43%
	Total		6	6	30	149	892	16.70%
	T-3	Jax	5	7	28	200	1,407	14.21%
		Phx	1	1	4	74	410	18.05%
		Ral	2	2	20	173	412	41.99%
	Total		8	10	52	447	2,229	20.05%

 

M:I 7 (Total) T-4 comps

 - F9 - 1.25x (8.91m)

 - Top Gun (Total) - .309x (5.96m)

 - Dune - missed

 - Ghostbusters (Total) - 1.94x (8.73m)

 - NTTD (Total) - 1.25x (7.86m)

 - Indiana Jones - 1.24x (8.94m)

 

Size adjusted average - 7.92m

 

*Note: comps are not ATP adjusted for discounted Tuesdays

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
M:I 7	T-3	Jax	6	71	26	352	11,296	3.12%
		Phx	7	65	57	347	11,603	2.99%
		Ral	8	62	69	414	8,900	4.65%
	Total		21	198	152	1,113	31,799	3.50%
M:I 7 (EA)	T-1	Jax	3	3	29	116	418	27.75%
		Phx	2	2	8	34	363	9.37%
		Ral	1	1	5	41	111	36.94%
	Total		6	6	42	191	892	21.41%
	T-2	Jax	5	7	8	208	1,407	14.78%
		Phx	1	1	8	82	410	20.00%
		Ral	2	2	34	207	412	50.24%
	Total		8	10	50	497	2,229	22.30%

 

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
M:I 7	T-2	Jax	6	71	40	392	11,296	3.47%
		Phx	7	65	48	395	11,603	3.40%
		Ral	8	62	58	472	8,900	5.30%
	Total		21	198	146	1,259	31,799	3.96%
M:I 7 (EA)	T-0	Jax	3	3	40	156	418	37.32%
		Phx	2	2	4	38	363	10.47%
		Ral	1	1	9	50	111	45.05%
	Total		6	6	53	244	892	27.35%
	T-1	Jax	5	7	19	227	1,407	16.13%
		Phx	1	1	13	95	410	23.17%
		Ral	2	2	24	231	412	56.07%
	Total		8	10	56	553	2,229	24.81%

 

*Last two days of sales taken both mornings.

 

M:I 7 (Total) T-2 comps

 - F9 - 1.19x (8.44m)

 - Top Gun (Total) - .317x (6.12m)

 - Dune - 1.36x (6.96m)

 - Ghostbusters (Total) - 1.83x (8.22m)

 - NTTD (Total) - missed

 - Indiana Jones - 1.25x (8.99m)

 - Bullet Train (Total) - 2.63x (12.08m)

 - Flash - .89x (8.67m)

Size adjusted average - 8.03m

 

Thinking the comps will finish around 8.5m which would put me around 8m with discounts.

 

*Note: comps are not ATP adjusted for discounted Tuesdays

[Maggie]

11 minutes ago, VanillaSkies said:

 I can’t help but think some of the Top Gun audience who are on the fence with his MI movies might decide to check it out if the WOM is as golden as the reviews suggest it might be. 
 

 

The TG2 audience is watching Sound of Freedom. 😁

 

[vale9001]

after Gerwig and Nolan there is an august without big releases. If the movie is good legs are gonna be good all august, like it's common for this saga. 80-90M seems a very good start.

 

I think coming after Barbenheimer would have been worst if these movies will cannibalize the conversation for some week once they're out. 

Edited July 9, 2023 by vale9001

[Borobudur]

3 minutes ago, Maggie said:

The TG2 audience is watching Sound of Freedom. 😁

 

And they saw MI7 trailer in front of SoF and go ahead with MI7 too in the end.

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 7/7/2023 at 10:28 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Barbie	T-13	Jax	6	43	51	403	5,243	7.69%
		Phx	6	31	31	450	5,096	8.83%
		Ral	8	50	44	547	5,963	9.17%
	Total		20	124	126	1,400	16,302	8.59%
Barbie (EA)	T-12	Jax	2	3	4	166	319	52.04%
		Phx	1	1	7	175	208	84.13%
		Ral	2	2	1	139	190	73.16%
	Total		5	6	12	480	717	66.95%
Oppenheimer	T-13	Jax	6	24	18	307	4,739	6.48%
		Phx	6	25	12	350	4,863	7.20%
		Ral	8	23	37	381	2,928	13.01%
	Total		20	72	67	1,038	12,530	8.28%

 

Oppenheimer T-13 comps

 - JWD (Total) - .383x (6.89m)

 - Top Gun 2 - .558x (8.21m)

 - Avatar 2 - .457x (7.77m)

 - Scream VI - 1.58x (9.01m)

 - Matrix (OD) - 1.129x (7.2m)

 - Mission Impossible 7 (Total) - 1.35x

 - Barbie (Total) - .552x

 

Size adjusted average - 8.05m

 

Barbie (Total) T-13 comps

 - Avatar 2 - .828x (14.08m)

 - Oppenheimer - 1.811x

 - JWD (Total) - .694x (12.49m)

 - Dragon Ball Z - 2.984x (12.84m)

 - Indiana Jones - 2.626x (18.91m)

 - Shazam 2 - 4.519x (15.37m)

 - Top Gun 2 (Thu) - 1.011x (14.87m)

 

Size adjusted average - 14.03m

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Barbie	T-12	Jax	6	51	87	490	6,234	7.86%
		Phx	6	31	31	481	5,096	9.44%
		Ral	8	50	69	616	5,963	10.33%
	Total		20	132	187	1,587	17,293	9.18%
Barbie (EA)	T-11	Jax	2	3	0	166	319	52.04%
		Phx	1	1	7	182	208	87.50%
		Ral	2	2	13	152	190	80.00%
	Total		5	6	20	500	717	69.74%
Oppenheimer	T-12	Jax	6	24	36	343	4,739	7.24%
		Phx	6	25	25	375	4,863	7.71%
		Ral	8	23	24	405	2,928	13.83%
	Total		20	72	85	1,123	12,530	8.96%

 

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Barbie	T-11	Jax	6	51	66	556	6,234	8.92%
		Phx	6	31	48	529	5,096	10.38%
		Ral	8	50	55	671	5,963	11.25%
	Total		20	132	169	1,756	17,293	10.15%
Barbie (EA)	T-10	Jax	2	3	8	174	319	54.55%
		Phx	1	1	3	185	208	88.94%
		Ral	2	2	3	155	190	81.58%
	Total		5	6	14	514	717	71.69%
Oppenheimer	T-11	Jax	6	24	13	356	4,739	7.51%
		Phx	6	25	30	405	4,863	8.33%
		Ral	8	23	18	423	2,928	14.45%
	Total		20	72	61	1,184	12,530	9.45%

*Two days of data pulled both mornings

 

Oppenheimer T-11 comps

 - JWD (Total) - missed

 - Top Gun 2 - .57x (8.38m)

 - Avatar 2 - missed

 - Scream VI - missed

 - Matrix (OD) - 1.071x (6.82m)

 - Mission Impossible 7 (Total) - 1.39x

 - Barbie (Total) - .522x

 

Size adjusted average - 6.97m (missing some bigger comps)

 

Barbie (Total) T-11 comps

 - Avatar 2 - missed

 - Oppenheimer - 1.917x

 - JWD (Total) - missed

 - Dragon Ball Z - 3.324x (14.3m)

 - Indiana Jones - 2.881x (20.74m)

 - Shazam 2 - 5.07x (17.23m)

 - Top Gun 2 (Thu) - 1.092x (16.06m)

 

Size adjusted average - 16.44m

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 7/7/2023 at 10:29 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Haunted Mansion	T-20	Jax	5	31	4	52	3,813	1.36%
		Phx	6	27	5	57	4,543	1.25%
		Ral	8	30	5	31	3,672	0.84%
	Total		19	88	14	140	12,028	1.16%
Haunted Mansion (EA)	T-19	Jax	2	2	1	22	395	5.57%
		Phx	1	1	4	31	208	14.90%
	Total		4	4	5	53	603	8.79%

 

Haunted Mansion (Total) T-20 comps

 - Shazam 2 - .648x (2.2m)

 - Barbie (Total) - .162x (2.27m w/ today's avg)

 - Knock at the Cabin - 3.78x (5.49m)

 - Nope - .794x (5.08m)

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Haunted Mansion	T-19	Jax	5	31	-2	50	3,813	1.31%
		Phx	6	27	1	58	4,543	1.28%
		Ral	8	30	3	34	3,672	0.93%
	Total		19	88	2	142	12,028	1.18%
Haunted Mansion (EA)	T-18	Jax	2	2	2	24	395	6.08%
		Phx	1	1	3	34	208	16.35%
	Total		4	4	5	58	603	9.62%

 

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Haunted Mansion	T-18	Jax	5	31	3	53	3,813	1.39%
		Phx	6	27	2	60	4,543	1.32%
		Ral	8	30	2	36	3,672	0.98%
	Total		19	88	7	149	12,028	1.24%
Haunted Mansion (EA)	T-17	Jax	2	2	0	24	395	6.08%
		Phx	1	1	2	36	208	17.31%
	Total		4	4	2	60	603	9.95%

*Last two days of sales taken each morning

 

Haunted Mansion (Total) T-18 comps

 - Shazam 2 - missed

 - Barbie (Total) - .157x (2.57m w/ today's avg)

 - Knock at the Cabin - 3.6x (5.23m)

 - Nope - .777x (4.97m)

[emoviefan]

11 minutes ago, VanillaSkies said:

With a 99% RT score, is it possible that the earlier shows actually spur more interest for the weekend? I know MI has quite a lot of track record to go off of, but I can’t help but think some of the Top Gun audience who are on the fence with his MI movies might decide to check it out if the WOM is as golden as the reviews suggest it might be. 
 

or is that just a pipe dream?

Good WOM is a never a bad thing. This should be no lower than 115 mill when Barbenheimer hits. Assume no lower than 30 that weekend 145. It should be able to do another 75 mill from then on to at least hit Fallouts 220. Who knows though. People are either interested or not to go to the theater. Barbenheimer should  not be an excuse for why they did not go. 

[M37]

On 7/5/2023 at 5:47 PM, M37 said:

Updated with all T-7 numbers.

Note: averages may include additional values not shown on graph

 

Can see the uptick yesterday in a few samples and the average, and as mentioned up thread, I expect that to trajectory continue for a couple days before potentially dipping back down over the weekend. Still thinking around $8M previews ($7-$9M) based on admissions, before adjusting the actual $ value down by some % for Tuesday Discounts

 

The T-7 mark is usually when I roll out the Forecast Matrix, but given the extended preview days and opening, going to forego that exercise for this release. Did do some mathing previously about a potential IM, and mostly still in line with that, so in a roughly $75M - $100M 5-day range, though can certainly argue that up or even down by like $10M or so. But that would put the 3-day OW in line with basically every other Mission Impossible release - so nothing too surprising, just remarkable consistency and audience retention over time

MI7 T-3 Preview Update

 

Numbers had been rising, but took a bit of a dip yesterday. It does appear as the day of week change throwing off comps  trajectory is finally manifesting.

On 7/5/2023 at 7:10 AM, M37 said:

Without getting into the weeds, would caution about reading too much into the MI7 jump vs comp values, as this final week is where the day shift (Tue instead of Thur preview) is mostly likely to produce a wonky trajectory vs comps. My expectation is growth in value through T-5 (Thur), then some tapering off for T-4 & 3, before the home stretch (though it looks to have started a day earlier than I had anticipated)

 

Overall, though I do expect that turn back down to continue with the next round of updates, still in a decent place, and at worst should follow the Indy path form here. Don't see much of a reason to adjust the preview and 5-day opening range from what is listed above; still Cuising towards another predicable OW for the MI franchise