The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[vale9001]

 

[Bobzaruni]

1 minute ago, vale9001 said:

 

180M could happen then if it holds that since 12 is 180

Edited July 19, 2023 by Bobzaruni

[MrPink]

3 minutes ago, Bobzaruni said:

180M could happen then if it holds that since 12 is 180

 

Would not extrapolate that way. Presales of a movie like Captain America Civil War and Iron Man 3 might as well be in a different era of booking compared to now.

[charlie Jatinder]

1 minute ago, vale9001 said:

 

Post-CoVID Barbie will be just below NWH, BP2 and DSitMoM in AMC for first weekend.

 

Before that just 3 Star Wars, 2 Avengers will surely be higher, and few others like The Lion King, Black Panther. Not sure if pre-sales were that huge during Potter, Twilight times. 

[vale9001]

12 minutes ago, Bobzaruni said:

180M could happen then if it holds that since 12 is 180

160-165 maybe.

[SchumacherFTW]

45 minutes ago, MightyDargon said:

Yes, I'm sure we need IMAX for a movie consisting mainly of hair jokes, BoJo sounding like a British Will Ferrell character and an obligatory scene where he runs around to the Benny Hill theme.

So a Spitting Image movie? I'm down

[MightyDargon]

2 minutes ago, SchumacherFTW said:

So a Spitting Image movie? I'm down

Basically. Bonus points BoJo is either a puppet or has really rubbery makeup.

[rehpyc]

23 hours ago, rehpyc said:

T-3 Barbie

JW4: 31.0M

AtSV: 29.4M

GoTG3: 20.0M

TLM: 28.1M

Ava2: 17.3M

TGM: 15.6M

L&T: 20.3M

BP2: 16.0M

NWH: 11.8M

T-2 Barbie

JW4: 31.7M

AtSV: 29.5M

FX: 34.0M

GoTG3: 21.8M

TLM: 29.8M

Ava2: 19.2M

TGM: 16.5M

L&T: 21.9M

BP2: 17.9M

NWH: 13.4M

[rehpyc]

23 hours ago, rehpyc said:

Oppenheimer T-3

Ava2: 10.8M

TGM: 9.7M

Dune: 10.8M

IJ5: 15.0M

FX: 20.4M

JW4: 19.3M

Oppenheimer T-2

Ava2: 11.5M

TGM: 9.8M

Dune: 11.2M

IJ5: 15.6M

FX: 20.2M

JW4: 18.9M

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 7/18/2023 at 9:18 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Barbie	T-2	Jax	6	75	334	2,086	9,095	22.94%
		Phx	7	79	415	2,106	12,078	17.44%
		Ral	8	63	393	2,446	7,130	34.31%
	Total		21	217	1,142	6,638	28,303	23.45%
Barbie (EA)	T-1	Jax	2	3	8	277	319	86.83%
		Phx	1	1	-1	201	208	96.63%
		Ral	2	2	0	183	190	96.32%
	Total		5	6	7	661	717	92.19%
Oppenheimer	T-2	Jax	6	28	166	1,059	5,083	20.83%
		Phx	6	27	185	926	4,102	22.57%
		Ral	8	28	117	976	3,324	29.36%
	Total		20	83	468	2,961	12,509	23.67%

 

Oppenheimer T-2 comps

 - JWD (Total) - .505x (9.1m)

 - Top Gun 2 - .633x (9.3m)

 - Avatar 2 - .555x (9.43m)

 - Dune - 1.965x (10.02m)

 - Indiana Jones - 1.799x (12.95m)

 - Mission Impossible 7 (Total) - 1.44x (12.67m)

 - Barbie (Total) - .406x

 

Size adjusted average - 10.5m

 

Movie	T-3 -> Today	T-6 -> T-3	T-9 -> T-6	Last Day
Oppenheimer	48.87%	23.38%	22.31%	18.77%
JW3 Total				16.62%
Top Gun 2	51.55%	21.37%	14.42%	18.06%
Avatar 2	36.18%	21.54%		12.05%
Dune			21.67%	27.82%
Indiana Jones	45.66%	23.27%	9.11%	20.50%
M:I 7 Total	54.24%	25.43%	14.08%	14.16%

T = Today

 

Keeping pace with most comps over the weekend and a better day than most.  Bumping my projection to 9.5m

 

Barbie (Total) T-2 comps

 - Avatar 2 - 1.368x (23.25m)

 - JWD (Total) - 1.246x (22.42m)

 - Top Gun 2 (Total) - 1.125x (21.71m)

 - I Wanna Dance - 27.75x (20.26m)

 - Fantastic Beasts 3 - 3.401x (20.41m)

 - Eternals - 2.419x (22.98m)

 - Oppenheimer - 2.465x

 

Size adjusted average - 22.59m

 

Barbie pace chart. 

 

Movie	T-3 -> Today	T-6 -> T-3	T-9 -> T-6	Last Day
Barbie Total	52.32%	31.34%	31.00%	18.68%
Avatar 2	36.18%	21.54%		12.05%
JW3 Total				16.62%
Top Gun 2 Total	42.02%	20.64%	12.63%	14.79%
I Wanna Dance	53.80%	28.65%	14.75%	31.50%
Fantastic Beasts 3			27.47%	14.33%
Eternals	31.17%	16.30%		13.51%

T = Today

 

Amazing pace in every column.  Can't wait to see how high this can fly.

 

Barbie (Thu) T-2 comps

 - Avatar 2 - 1.244x (21.14m)

 - JW3 - 1.312x (23.22m)

 - Top Gun 2 - 1.418x (20.85m)

 - I Wanna Dance - 25.24x (18.42m)

 - Fantastic Beasts 3 - 3.09x (18.56m)

 - Eternals - 2.2x (20.9m)

 

Size adjusted average - 21.67m

 

It's really hard to predict this one as it's not really tracking like anything else.  Gut feeling is it slows a little in the last couple days and end up with a ~20m Thursday + ~2m EA.  I'm seeing more Dolby shows being added so that'll help ATP a little. 

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Barbie	T-1	Jax	6	90	406	2,492	10,347	24.08%
		Phx	7	87	397	2,503	12,636	19.81%
		Ral	8	84	407	2,853	9,501	30.03%
	Total		21	261	1,210	7,848	32,484	24.16%
Barbie (EA)	T-0	Jax	2	3	0	277	319	86.83%
		Phx	1	1	2	203	208	97.60%
		Ral	2	2	3	186	190	97.89%
	Total		5	6	5	666	717	92.89%
Oppenheimer	T-1	Jax	6	31	170	1,229	5,381	22.84%
		Phx	6	27	126	1,052	4,102	25.65%
		Ral	8	34	162	1,138	3,913	29.08%
	Total		20	92	458	3,419	13,396	25.52%

*One theater in Phx is temporarily closed - I kept yesterday's counts but I can't find anything online about the closing.  It was back online yesterday and had sold more tickets but it is back down for maintenance.

 

Oppenheimer T-1 comps

 - JWD (Total) - .497x (8.94m)

 - Top Gun 2 - .605x (8.89m)

 - Avatar 2 - .554x (9.42m)

 - Dune - 1.94x (9.89m)

 - Indiana Jones - 1.789x (12.88m)

 - Mission Impossible 7 (Total) - 1.42x (12.49m)

 - Eternals - 1.001x (9.506m)

 - Barbie (Total) - .402x

 

Size adjusted average - 10.2m

 

Oppenheimer pace chart:

Movie	3-day pace	Prev 3-day	Prev 3-day	Last Day
Oppenheimer	55.83%	24.07%	25.57%	15.47%
JW3 Total			15.73%	17.48%
Top Gun 2	62.60%	25.37%	14.92%	20.77%
Avatar 2	44.81%	20.44%	19.99%	15.65%
Dune			21.41%	16.99%
Indiana Jones	52.39%	27.83%	9.3 9%	16.10%
M:I 7 Total	54.72%	29.16%	18.13%	17.17%

T = Today

 

Last day was (slightly) below all comps.  As others have mentioned, capacity is going to be an issue, but it should help spread out sales over the weekend.  Going back to my 9m prediction due to lack of availability.

 

Barbie (Total) T-1 comps

 - Avatar 2 - 1.379x (23.45m)

 - JWD (Total) - 1.237x (22.27m)

 - Top Gun 2 (Total) - 1.132x (21.85m)

 - I Wanna Dance - 27.38x (19.98m)

 - Fantastic Beasts 3 - 3.434x (20.61m)

 - Eternals - 2.492x (23.67m)

 - Oppenheimer - 2.49x

 

Size adjusted average - 22.84m

 

Barbie pace chart:

Movie	3-day pace	Prev 3-day	Prev 3-day	Last Day
Barbie Total	59.02%	29.40%	34.15%	16.65%
Avatar 2	44.81%	20.44%	19.99%	15.65%
JW3 Total			15.73%	17.48%
Top Gun 2 Total	49.22%	21.84%	15.25%	15.92%
I Wanna Dance	77.71%	20.00%	23.57%	18.25%
Fantastic Beasts 3			29.29%	15.52%
Eternals	38.34%	15.95%	19.75%	13.26%

T = Today

 

Another pretty good day.  Last day is in line with comps.

 

Barbie (Thu) T-1 comps

 - Avatar 2 - 1.272x (21.62m)

 - JW3 - 1.3x (23m)

 - Top Gun 2 - 1.389x (20.41m)

 - I Wanna Dance - 25.24x (18.42m)

 - Fantastic Beasts 3 - 3.166x (18.99m)

 - Eternals - 2.297x (21.82m)

 

Size adjusted average - 21.89m

 

Barbie (Thu) pace chart:

Movie	3-day pace	Prev 3-day	Prev 3-day	Last Day
Barbie	66.10%	32.63%	38.64%	18.23%
Avatar 2	44.81%	20.44%	19.99%	15.65%
JW3			16.55%	19.39%
Top Gun 2	62.60%	25.37%	14.92%	20.77%
I Wanna Dance	77.71%	20.00%	23.57%	18.25%
Fantastic Beasts 3			29.29%	15.52%
Eternals	38.34%	15.95%	19.75%	13.26%

 

Top Gun and Transformers (+70.8%) are the closest comps I've got for 3-day pace at this level.  Had some higher (F9 at +75.7%, Sonic 2 at +80.9%, and Venom 2 at +101%!).  Transformers comp right now is at 36.03m so I didn't really see a point in including it.  

 

 

All in all, I'm not changing my prediction which is still at 20m for Thursday (excl EA). 

Edited July 19, 2023 by katnisscinnaplex

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 7/18/2023 at 9:21 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Haunted Mansion	T-9	Jax	5	31	3	95	3,813	2.49%
		Phx	6	27	27	103	4,543	2.27%
		Ral	8	30	2	61	3,672	1.66%
	Total		19	88	32	259	12,028	2.15%
Haunted Mansion (EA)	T-8	Jax	2	2	7	55	395	13.92%
		Phx	1	1	2	61	208	29.33%
	Total		4	4	9	116	603	19.24%
Talk to Me	T-9	Jax	5	14	2	8	1,269	0.63%
		Phx	5	11	0	17	1,258	1.35%
		Ral	6	16	0	6	1,567	0.38%
	Total		16	41	2	31	4,094	0.76%

 

Haunted Mansion (Total) T-9 comps

 - Shazam 2 - .805x (2.74m)

 - Barbie (Total) - .128x (2.88m w/ today's avg)

 - Knock at the Cabin - 3.79x (5.49m)

 - Nope - .796x (5.1m)

 - Sonic 2 (Total) - .598x (3.74m)

 - Fantastic Beasts 3 - .415x (2.49m)

 - Jungle Cruise - 3.074x (8.3m)

 

Size adjusted average - 4.28m

 

Talk to Me T-9 comps

 - Black Phone (Total) - .175x (525k)

 - M3GAN - missed

 - Escape Room 2 - 2.214x (2.66m)*

 - Don't Breathe 2 - 3.1x (2.99m)*

 

*(I hesitate to put these with 14 and 10 tickets sold respectively.  One family could make a reservation and double the sales so it hardly means anything)

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Haunted Mansion	T-8	Jax	5	31	4	99	3,813	2.60%
		Phx	6	27	5	108	4,543	2.38%
		Ral	8	30	4	65	3,672	1.77%
	Total		19	88	13	272	12,028	2.26%
Haunted Mansion (EA)	T-7	Jax	2	2	12	67	395	16.96%
		Phx	1	1	6	67	208	32.21%
	Total		4	4	18	134	603	22.22%
Talk to Me	T-8	Jax	5	14	2	10	1,269	0.79%
		Phx	5	11	0	17	1,258	1.35%
		Ral	6	16	4	10	1,567	0.64%
	Total		16	41	6	37	4,094	0.90%

*One theater in Phx is temporarily closed - I kept yesterday's counts but I can't find anything online about the closing.  

 

Haunted Mansion (Total) T-8 comps

 - Shazam 2 - .834x (2.83m)

 - Barbie (Total) - .123x (2.82m w/ today's avg)

 - Knock at the Cabin - 3.9x (5.66m)

 - Nope - .82x (5.25m)

 - Sonic 2 (Total) - .601x (3.75m)

 - Fantastic Beasts 3 - .39x (2.34m)

 - Jungle Cruise - 3.076x (8.3m)

 

Size adjusted average - 4.29m

 

Talk to Me T-8 comps

 - Black Phone (Total) - .195x (584k)

 - M3GAN - missed

 - Escape Room 2 - 2.31x (2.78m)

 - Don't Breathe 2 - 3.08x (2.98m)

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 7/18/2023 at 9:22 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Turtles	T-14	Jax	5	40	8	46	5,828	0.79%
		Phx	6	59	0	87	8,926	0.97%
		Ral	5	35	0	62	5,055	1.23%
	Total		16	134	8	195	19,809	0.98%
Turtles (EA)	T-11	Jax	4	6	5	55	384	14.32%
		Phx	1	1	1	16	169	9.47%
		Ral	3	3	4	68	433	15.70%
	Total		8	10	10	139	986	14.10%
	T-13	Jax	5	7	5	77	961	8.01%
		Phx	1	1	7	63	208	30.29%
	Total		7	9	12	140	1,169	11.98%

 

Turtles (Total) T-14 comps

 - Barbie (Total) - .272x (6.15m w/ today's avg)

 - JW3 - .186x (3.34m)

 - Sonic 2 (Total) - 1.11x (6.94m)

 - Haunted Mansion (Total) - 1.79x (7.65m w/ today's average)

 

Size adjusted average - 6.84m

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Turtles	T-13	Jax	5	40	1	47	5,828	0.81%
		Phx	6	59	6	93	8,926	1.04%
		Ral	5	35	4	66	5,055	1.31%
	Total		16	134	11	206	19,809	1.04%
Turtles (EA)	T-10	Jax	4	6	4	59	384	15.36%
		Phx	1	1	0	16	169	9.47%
		Ral	3	3	4	72	433	16.63%
	Total		8	10	8	147	986	14.91%
	T-12	Jax	5	7	15	92	961	9.57%
		Phx	1	1	5	68	208	32.69%
	Total		7	9	20	160	1,169	13.69%

*One theater in Phx is temporarily closed - I kept yesterday's counts but I can't find anything online about the closing.  It was back online yesterday and had sold more tickets but it is back down for maintenance.

 

Turtles (Total) T-13 comps

 - Barbie (Total) - .273x (6.23m w/ today's avg)

 - JW3 - .189x (3.41m)

 - Sonic 2 (Total) - 1.09x (6.82m)

 - Haunted Mansion (Total) - 1.82x (7.81m w/ today's average)

 - Indiana Jones - .716x (5.16m)

 - Fantastic Beasts 3 - .868x (5.21m)

 

Size adjusted average - 6.38m

[PlatnumRoyce]

Quorum is apparently now daily updating the film. I don't think they've officially published this on their website but their current tracking number has jumped up  to 130M (though interview is inconsistent whether it's 120-130 or 130-140)

[Krissykins]

6 hours ago, redfirebird2008 said:

 

$100M for production alone, but another $100M for marketing. They only get around 50% of the worldwide box office revenue. So they would need $400M in total box office to deliver $200M of revenue for Universal, enough money to offset their $200M of combined production & marketing cost. 

I won’t derail the thread and I know someone else already answered you, but as they said, we don’t factor marketing costs in. There’s ancillaries for that and promotional partners etc. 

 

 

Anyway, excellent presales. Friday will be exciting when we get the first numbers! 

[vale9001]

 

 

 

 

Per Deadline, the BoxOffice Company is reporting that ticket pre-sales ahead of the Barbie release date have reached a high for the entire year. Barbie presale tickets are outnumbering any other 2023 movie, including the massive hits The Super Mario Bros. Movie and Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse. It is the best presale result since the 2022 release of Avatar: The Way of Water, a movie that is now the third highest-grossing movie of all time worldwide.

[Porthos]

On 7/18/2023 at 12:56 AM, Porthos said:

 

Oppenheimer Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-3 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	78	7745	10556	2811	26.63%

 

Total Showings Added Today	1
Total Seats Added Today	n/a
Total Seats Sold Today	351

*NOTE: The only showtime added in the region was the local drive-in, which has non-reserved seating, finally adding one showing of Oppenheimer.

 

T-3 Comps:

	%		Sold T-3	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
NTTD	149.44		178	1881		0/157	21272/23153	8.12%		3737	75.22%		9.27m
Dune	186.53		173	1507		0/92	11672/13179	11.43%		2915	96.43%		9.51m
JWD	46.36		795	6063		0/281	26773/32836	18.46%		10966	25.63%		8.35m
BP2	25.44		914	11048		2/355	30945/41993	26.31%		16800	16.73%		7.12m
Ava 2	50.68		453	5547		0/277	27377/32924	16.85%		8986	31.28%		8.61m
Wick 4	106.20		342	2647		0/152	16697/19344	13.68%		5448	51.60%		9.45m
FX	136.72		262	2056		0/228	30813/32869	6.26%		4122	68.20%		10.25m
Indy 5	111.33		258	2525		0/158	21009/23534	10.73%		4767	58.97%		8.02m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Oppenheimer's current tickets sold versus that final number.

Regal:      661/3390  [19.50% sold]
Matinee:          17/81  [20.99% | 0.60% of all tickets sold]
----    
70mm:                   698/776 [+17 tickets] [24.83% of all tickets sold]
All other PLF:    1399/4494 [+183 tickets] [49.77% of all tickets sold]
Standard:             714/5286 [+151 tickets] [25.40% of all tickets sold]

 

===

 

So on the one hand, had a good enough Sun --> Mon jump to either more or less keep pace or rise slightly with most comps (were a couple that fell slightly), which given the in-built fanbase for Nolan is no small thing.

 

On the other hand, it got absolutely screwed on screen expansion locally as it expanded exactly no screens that I track at the seat level (SPOILER ALERT: Barbie expanded quite a bit tonight — again).

 

Might still be room for it to squeeze in some more screens in the next couple of days as I don't know if theaters have all of their final sets up.  But there was a major wave of expansion for Barbie today and there... wasn't for Oppenheimer.

 

Not that that is a hugely terrible thing as it could very easily translate to legs in a mini-version of Ava 2.  But for all of the worries that Barbie might run screen issues, looks like it's Oppenheimer which has to worry more on that score.

 

Oppenheimer Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-2 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	80	7569	10682	3113	29.14%

 

Total Showings Added Today	2
Total Seats Added Today	126
Total Seats Sold Today	302

NOTE:  Regal Delta Shores was sampled at approx 6am PDT - all other showings were sampled at 11:45pm Tue night.

 

T-2 Comps:

	%		Sold T-2	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
NTTD	139.60		349	2230		0/176	22255/24485	9.11%		3737	83.30%		8.65m
Dune	178.70		235	1742		0/109	13069/14811	11.76%		2915	106.79%		9.11m
JWD	45.39		796	6859		0/288	26655/33514	20.47%		10966	28.39%		8.17m
BP2	26.10		879	11927		2/375	31211/43138	27.65%		16800	18.53%		7.31m
Ava 2	49.65		723	6270		0/296	27849/34119	18.38%		8986	34.64%		8.44m
Wick 4	97.31		552	3199		0/166	17433/20632	15.51%		5448	57.14%		8.66m
FX	130.63		327	2383		0/235	30517/32900	7.24%		4122	75.52%		9.80m
Indy 5	107.64		367	2892		0/169	21180/24072	12.01%		4767	65.30%		7.75m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Oppenheimer's current tickets sold versus that final number.

Regal:       773/3390  [22.80% sold]
Matinee:          28/81  [34.57% | 0.90% of all tickets sold]
----    
70mm:                       707/776 [+9 tickets] [22.71% of all tickets sold]
All other PLF:    1542/4620 [+143 tickets] [49.53% of all tickets sold]
Standard:            864/5286 [+150 tickets] [27.75% of all tickets sold]

 

=========

 

This was a really meh Tuesday, unfortunately. :---/.

 

Don't know if it was due to lack of screen expansion (literally one — ONE!!! — theater expanded, and that at exactly two showings) or Barbie hogging all the glory or other factors like the in-built fanbase of Nolan finally catching up to the film or it was just a randomly meh day.

 

Can't sugar coat it though.  Just not a great day locally.

 

NB: As noted, Regal Delta Shores was sampled a little after 6am local time, which is so early into the day as to not matter, IMO.

Edited July 19, 2023 by Porthos

[Porthos]

On 7/18/2023 at 12:57 AM, Porthos said:

 

Barbie Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-3 days and counting

 

Total Showings Added Today	51
Total Seats Added Today	3963
Total Seats Sold Today	908

 

T-3 Comps:

	%		Sold T-3	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
TGM	84.77		624	7754		1/324	33685/41439	18.71%		11474	57.29%		16.33m
JWD	108.41		795	6063		0/281	26773/32836	18.46%		10966	59.94%		19.51m
BA	302.62		286	2172		0/223	27742/29914	7.26%		4494	146.26%		22.70m
Ava 2	118.50		453	5547		0/277	27377/32924	16.85%		8986	73.15%		20.14m
Scream 6	434.43		251	1513		0/102	10725/12238	12.36%		3134	209.73%		24.76m
Wick 4	248.32		342	2647		0/152	16697/19344	13.68%		5448	120.65%		22.10m
GOTG3	104.23		587	6306		0/273	29558/35864	17.58%		10750	61.14%		18.24m
FX	319.70		262	2056		0/228	30813/32869	6.26%		4122	159.46%		23.98m
TLM	185.84		482	3537		0/201	24221/27758	12.74%		6561	100.18%		19.14m
AtSV	147.41		516	4459		0/142	18015/22474	19.84%		9744	67.46%		25.58m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Barbie's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     1409/8492  [16.59% sold]
Matinee:    670/3335  [20.09% | 10.19% of all tickets sold]
------------    
Wed:    391/422 [92.65% sold] [+3 tickets sold]
Thr:    6182/25289 [24.45% sold] [+905 tickets sold]

 

==

 

(already talked about screen expansion in the Oppen post directly above)

 

This is a bit more of what I was looking for last night, but I still find it interesting that it didn't outsell Jurassic World Dominion by all that much.  Last night it was 24 tickets behind it and tonight it was 52 tickets ahead of it.  Now "52 seats sold" ahead is not nothing, but it's not "aiming for 25m in previews" ahead of it, either.

 

(since this was shorted by 61 tickets, the actual difference was 113 tickets which absolutely is meaningful — I'll leave the rest of the comments for posterity)

 

At the same time, review bounce hasn't hit yet and that could very well super charge it.  Also, there is an extreme danger in putting too much weight/discussion/thought behind just one comp.  Then again, most of the other comps (outside of CBMs and TGM) aren't moving up much, either, and the one that did (Across the Spider-Verse) was still dealing with Memorial Day Weekend.

 

All that being said, still an great day.  But put a gun to my head and I'm probably somewhere between 19m and 22m in previews.  There is a very likely strong review bounce coming, but there's also a downward adjustment that has to come for utter lack of PLFs.  Won't be as strong a hit as MI7 got, no.  But it won't be nothing, either.  So it's possible for those two factors to either cancel each other out.  Find out soon enuf.

 

Barbie Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-2 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	244	19827	27443	7616	27.75%

 

 

Total Sellouts Removed Today	1
Total Showings Added Today	13
Total Seats Added Today	1732
Total Seats Sold Today	1043

NOTE:  Regal Delta Shores was sampled at approx 6am PDT - all other showings were sampled at between 10:45pm and 11:40pm PDT on Tuesday..

 

T-2 Comps:

	%		Sold T-2	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
TGM	87.43		957	8711		2/344	34293/43004	20.26%		11474	66.38%		16.84m
JWD	111.04		796	6859		0/288	26655/33514	20.47%		10966	69.45%		19.99m
BA	296.46		397	2569		0/232	28250/30819	8.34%		4494	169.47%		22.23m
Ava 2	121.47		723	6270		0/296	27849/34119	18.38%		8986	84.75%		20.65m
Scream 6	427.62		268	1781		0/111	11647/13428	13.26%		3134	243.01%		24.37m
Wick 4	238.07		552	3199		0/166	17433/20632	15.51%		5448	139.79%		21.19m
GOTG3	105.94		883	7189		0/315	31900/39089	18.39%		10750	70.85%		18.54m
FX	319.60		327	2383		0/235	30517/32900	7.24%		4122	184.76%		23.97m
TLM	191.74		435	3972		0/221	24918/28890	13.75%		6561	116.08%		19.75m
AtSV	140.96		944	5403		0/230	23909/29312	18.43%		9744	78.16%		24.46m
RotB	304.40		524	2502		0/183	22360/24862	10.06%		4973	153.15%		26.79m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Barbie's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:      1740/8660  [20.09% sold]
Matinee:    735/3683  [19.96% | 9.65% of all tickets sold]
------------    
Wed:       390/422 [92.42% sold] [-1 tickets sold]
Thr:    7226/27021 [26.74% sold] [+1044 tickets sold]

 

=======

 

First things first:

 

On Monday (T-3), I accidentally shorted Barbie 61 tickets (67 - 6 = 61), which changes my analysis of the day a bit. 

 

SIDE NOTE:  I really need to buy a new keyboard, apparently.

I noticed this error late last night and already adjusted everything, but for record keeping:

 

T-3: 908 tickets sold

T-2: 1043 tickets sold.

 

Secondly, as I noted in the Oppenheimer post above, I was able to finally get numbers from that troublesome theater at a little after 6am locally (woke up early, saw it was working, promptly got the ticket numbers and went back to sleep), so it should be close enough to the real total as to not change a thing.

(also was pretty damn important to wait for that theater as they sold over a 100 tickets there yesterday)

 

All in all a very nice day. Now we see just how good it'll be these last two days.

[MrPink]

13 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

Oppenheimer Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-2 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	80	7569	10682	3113	29.14%

 

Total Showings Added Today	2
Total Seats Added Today	126
Total Seats Sold Today	302

NOTE:  Regal Delta Shores was sampled at approx 6am PDT - all other showings were sampled at 11:45pm Tue night.

 

T-2 Comps:

	%		Sold T-2	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
NTTD	139.60		349	2230		0/176	22255/24485	9.11%		3737	83.30%		8.65m
Dune	178.70		235	1742		0/109	13069/14811	11.76%		2915	106.79%		9.11m
JWD	45.39		796	6859		0/288	26655/33514	20.47%		10966	28.39%		8.17m
BP2	26.10		879	11927		2/375	31211/43138	27.65%		16800	18.53%		7.31m
Ava 2	49.65		723	6270		0/296	27849/34119	18.38%		8986	34.64%		8.44m
Wick 4	97.31		552	3199		0/166	17433/20632	15.51%		5448	57.14%		8.66m
FX	130.63		327	2383		0/235	30517/32900	7.24%		4122	75.52%		9.80m
Indy 5	107.64		367	2892		0/169	21180/24072	12.01%		4767	65.30%		7.75m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Oppenheimer's current tickets sold versus that final number.

Regal:       773/3390  [22.80% sold]
Matinee:          28/81  [34.57% | 0.90% of all tickets sold]
----    
70mm:                       707/776 [+9 tickets] [22.71% of all tickets sold]
All other PLF:    1542/4620 [+143 tickets] [49.53% of all tickets sold]
Standard:            864/5286 [+150 tickets] [27.75% of all tickets sold]

 

=========

 

This was a really meh Tuesday, unfortunately. :---/.

 

Don't know if it was due to lack of screen expansion (literally one — ONE!!! — theater expanded, and that at exactly two showings) or Barbie hogging all the glory or other factors like the in-built fanbase of Nolan finally catching up to the film or it was just a randomly meh day.

 

Can't sugar coat it though.  Just not a great day locally.

 

NB: As noted, Regal Delta Shores was sampled a little after 6am local time, which is so early into the day as to not matter, IMO.

 

Give me big review bump today

[vale9001]

14 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

Oppenheimer Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-2 days and counting

 

 

NB: As noted, Regal Delta Shores was sampled a little after 6am local time, which is so early into the day as to not matter, IMO.

 

 

my opinion is people aware of this movie are already aware of it because of the massive viral phenomenon. It's like it reached people can be interested on a first weekend. So first reactions don't even push that much at this point. Reviews now could give a better push, still more relevant than casual reactions. 

Everything then will be on WOM.

Edited July 19, 2023 by vale9001

[vafrow]

Barbie Early Access update, southern Ontario

 

I haven't been reporting on this, but, with it being tonight, I thought I'd check.

 

For Barbie early access shows, there's 11 screenings covering about a 150km radius, so, the bulk of the region.

 

All tickets sold except for some accessibility seating, and one random normal seat.

 

All theatres are very small, around 100 people or so from what I can see, but, some are smaller. They're all 19+ vip theatres, and are premium priced.

 

Most shows sold out early, but I recall seeing a few that were a little slower.

 

Quick back of the envelope math suggests that there's maybe $20K in revenue from these showings, which represents about 25% of the Canadian population, but located in the densent area. That gives a maximum $80K of EA showings from the Canadian market.

 

From what we're seeing in other tracking, it feels like there's more EA shows in the US though, so, this probably isn't a good indicator where that number may land.