The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[Porthos]

Quote

Quick and Dirty Haunted Mansion Sacto Report [T-2]

1093/11249 (9.72% sold) [+174 tickets]

 

0.72384x GBA at T-2             [3.26m]

0.52147x Sonic 2 at T-2         [3.26m]

0.39978x Minions 2 at T-2    [4.30m]

1.35105x Shazam 2 at T-2    [4.59m]

0.27518x TLM at T-2            [2.83m]

1.62407x Elemental at T-2    [3.90m]

(link to post on old thread)

 

Quick and Dirty Haunted Mansion Sacto Report [T-1]

1424/11249 (12.66% sold) [+331 tickets]

0.68462x GBA at T-1             [3.08m]

0.49393x Sonic 2 at T-1        [3.09m]

0.35423x Minions 2 at T-1     [3.81m]

1.33209x Shazam 2 at T-1     [4.53m]

0.28629x TLM at T-1              [2.95m]

1.45158x Elemental at T-1      [3.48m]

 

===

 

Comps keep dropping except for Shazam 2 (which was more or less flat) and TLM which pretty much has to rise at this level of sales.

 

Not much else to say except that it could be underperforming here and, as a reminder, we didn't have any EA sales to juice attendance.

 

Next, and final, update will be around 4:30-ish pm PDT, as I don't usually do mid-day updates for films I'm not devoting a full track to.

 

(Well, one other thing, aksually — by now the GBA and even the Sonic 2/Minion 2 comps should have a bit of a price difference in ATP thanks to whatever ticket price hikes occurred between now and then, so keep that in mind when looking at the comps)

[BadOlCatSylvester]

7 hours ago, emoviefan said:

What is the next 100 million  grossing movie? Unless Haunted Mansion is critic proof not happening.  Nothing in August is a lock.  Equalizer 3 maybe. The first 2 did but it  appeals to the old male audience who are not terribly reliable right now. 

Assuming it doesn't get pushed off, Dune 2. The goodwill from the last movie is still alive and well, and the trailers for this one have had good buzz.

[M37]

Finally got a chance to delve into the sales by hour data @ZackM posted for the Barbenheimer OW (here, in the for now old tracking thread). And since I'm a visual leaner:

 

 

 

Some general thoughts/observations:

• Without getting too into the weeds, I cannot tell you how amazing/ridiculous/astonishing it is for a film to break 70-75% capacity across an entire MTC for a given hour ... and here we have multiple films doing it across multiple days and hours, with Barbie peaking at 86.4% of all seats sold for 7-8PM on opening Friday!
• For both films, got the typical weekend pattern: softer matinees on Friday but stronger evening shows including later shows, Saturday solid throughout, then Sunday matinee running slightly ahead of Saturday before dropping off in the evening. The one major difference? The drop-off Sunday night was atypically soft, especially for the 6p-9p prime hours, resulting in the sub-12% grossing hold for both titles
• One key difference between the two films: the running time, as Oppy starts its decline an hour if not two before Barbie on Sunday night. Would expect that has carried over into the weekdays, with Oppy running further behind that it did over the weekend, and also that so many seats are packed into the 10a/2p/6p/10p time set of shows, that even a 6/630p prime show can be difficult to make on a work night. Should result in a bigger Friday increase for Oppy as those evening shows become more enticing
• IMO, had both films been standalone releases with capacity allocated to their potential, could have seen 10-20% higher numbers for the OW for each. That capacity limitation has resulted into demand spilling over into the weekdays, and likely through the second weekend. Despite the huge openings, a sub-40% drop in weekend 2 is in play for both, a bit more for Oppy than Barbie, and can't rule out a 4x OW total as well (~2.5x OWeek). I'll let ya'll do the math, but lets just say those values would be approaching some pretty amazing thresholds domestically ....

[katnisscinnaplex]

Quote

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Haunted Mansion	T-1	Jax	5	41	48	297	4,336	6.85%
		Phx	6	35	47	235	5,196	4.52%
		Ral	8	32	33	216	3,804	5.68%
	Total		19	108	128	748	13,336	5.61%
Haunted Mansion (EA)	T-0	Jax	2	2	47	206	395	52.15%
		Phx	1	1	19	157	208	75.48%
	Total		4	4	66	363	603	60.20%
Talk to Me	T-1	Jax	5	18	20	64	1,422	4.50%
		Phx	6	18	49	103	1,768	5.83%
		Ral	7	19	39	79	1,741	4.54%
	Total		18	55	108	246	4,931	4.99%

 

Haunted Mansion (Total) T-1 comps

 - Shazam 2 - 1.335x (4.54m)

 - Barbie (Total) - .13x (2.91m)

 - Knock at the Cabin - 4.444x (6.44m)

 - Nope - .813x (5.21m)

 - Sonic 2 (Total) - .59x (3.69m)

 - Fantastic Beasts 3 - .448x (2.69m)

 - Jungle Cruise - 2.405x (6.49m)

 - Ghostbusters (Total) - .769x (3.46m)

 

Size adjusted average - 4.5m

 

Haunted Mansion pace chart:

 

Movie	3-day pace	Prev 3-day	Prev 3-day	Last Day
Haunted Mansion Total	71.45%	32.41%	23.74%	21.16%
Shazam 2	44.44%	13.89%	7.86%	16.36%
Barbie Total	59.02%	29.40%	34.15%	16.65%
Knock at the Cabin	72.41%	26.21%	13.08%	23.15%
Nope	91.58%	26.23%	19.39%	32.36%
Sonic 2 (Total)	84.51%	28.82%	22.73%	29.61%
Fantastic Beasts 3			29.29%	15.52%
Jungle Cruise	126.47%	24.02%	31.61%	40.85%
Ghostbusters Total	79.95%	26.40%	19.29%	28.33%

 

The closest pace comp is... Knock at the Cabin?  Interesting.   Still think we'll see a little under 4m, maybe 3.8m

 

Talk to Me T-1 comps

 - Black Phone - .573x (1.49m)

 - M3GAN - .737x (2.03m)

 - Smile - 1.414x (2.4m)

 - Renfield - missed

 - X - 1.81x (796k)

 - Men - 1.907x (807k)

 - Antlers - 3.37x (1.25m)

 

Size adjusted average - 1.49m

 

The +78% was better than any of these comps.  3-day pace of +182.7% is very close to Men at +180.4%.  Another good day would make me feel good about getting to 1.5m.

Link to previous post

 

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Haunted Mansion	T-0	Jax	5	41	84	381	4,336	8.79%
		Phx	6	35	84	319	5,196	6.14%
		Ral	8	39	85	301	4,330	6.95%
	Total		19	115	253	1,001	13,862	7.22%
Talk to Me	T-0	Jax	5	18	44	108	1,422	7.59%
		Phx	6	18	53	156	1,768	8.82%
		Ral	7	19	40	119	1,741	6.84%
	Total		18	55	137	383	4,931	7.77%

 

Switching to previews-only comps

 

Haunted Mansion (Thu) T-0 comps

 - Shazam 2 - .796x (2.71m)

 - Barbie (Thu) - .105x (2.23m)

 - Knock at the Cabin - 2.72x (3.94m)

 - Nope - .505x (3.23m)

 - Sonic 2 (Thu) - .571x (2.84m)

 - Fantastic Beasts 3 - .343x (2.06m)

 - Jungle Cruise - 1.468x (3.96m)

 - Ghostbusters (Thu) - .559x (2.32m)

 

Size adjusted average - 3.14m

New model forecast - 2.88m

 

Haunted Mansion pace chart:

 

Movie	3-day pace	Prev 3-day	Prev 3-day	Last Day
Haunted Mansion	101.41%	33.00%	22.22%	33.82%
Shazam 2	95.79%	19.31%	10.04%	51.08%
Barbie	73.13%	31.55%	36.95%	21.24%
Knock at the Cabin	117.75%	24.26%	22.66%	47.20%
Nope	142.84%	29.01%	18.79%	45.24%
Sonic 2	98.08%	31.75%	21.52%	25.21%
Fantastic Beasts 3	55.62%	30.37%	30.83%	17.83%
Jungle Cruise	185.36%	28.03%	29.07%	47.62%
Ghostbusters	95.85%			27.91%

 

True previews pace is much different than total with EA.  Somehow none of the comps were in the +30s for last day.  3-day close to Shazam, Sonic and Ghostbusters which makes sense.  Tracking below the horror (late walkups) so those comps will come down and better than the bigger movies (Barbie and FB3) so those will come up.  The EA shows were doing well, but since they are only AMC the gross won't be nearly as large as some others.  Current target is 2.8m previews + 200k EA.

 

Talk to Me T-0 comps

 - Black Phone - .567x (1.47m)

 - M3GAN - .628x (1.73m)

 - Renfield - 1.268x (1.08m)

 - X - 1.72x (756k)

 - Men - 2.536x (1.07m)

 - Antlers - 3.25x (1.2m)

 

Size adjusted average - 1.27m

New model forecast - 1.57m!

 

Movie	3-day pace	Prev 3-day	Prev 3-day	Last Day
Talk to Me	275.49%	47.06%	42.59%	55.69%
Black Phone			26.67%	57.58%
M3GAN				82.63%
Smile				15.52%
X	248.44%			63.97%
Men	128.79%	59.09%		17.05%
Antlers	195.00%			61.64%

 

Pretty good day, in line with Black Phone, X and Antlers.  I saw some pretty low projections out there for OW, but I wouldn't be surprised if previews get to 1.1m.  There were 104+ early shows last night in AMC (the only one in my area had sold 14 tickets), so that will help a little too.  Hopefully a mini surprise.

[katnisscinnaplex]

Quote

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Meg 2	T-8	Jax	4	21	26	26	2,279	1.14%
		Phx	5	28	7	7	4,088	0.17%
		Ral	7	19	15	15	2,358	0.64%
	Total		16	68	48	48	8,725	0.55%
Turtles	T-6	Jax	5	47	9	87	6,390	1.36%
		Phx	6	63	11	124	9,350	1.33%
		Ral	8	46	24	141	6,272	2.25%
	Total		19	156	44	352	22,012	1.60%
Turtles (EA)	T-3	Jax	4	6	21	122	384	31.77%
		Phx	1	1	8	36	169	21.30%
		Ral	3	3	14	127	433	29.33%
	Total		8	10	43	285	986	28.90%
	T-5	Jax	5	7	12	163	961	16.96%
		Phx	1	1	14	113	208	54.33%
	Total		7	9	26	276	1,169	23.61%

 

Turtles (Total) T-7 comps

 - Barbie (Total) - .209x (4.65m)

 - Sonic 2 (Total) - 1.15x (7.18m)

 - Haunted Mansion (Total) - 1.79x (7.86m w/ today's average)

 - Indiana Jones - .916x (6.59m)

 - Fantastic Beasts 3 - .699x (4.19m)

 - Ghostbusters (Total) - missed

 - Dune - missed

 - Transformers (Total) - .744x (6.55m)

 - M:I 7 (Total) - .762x (6.71m)

 

Size adjusted average - 6.55m

 

Turtles pace chart

 

 

Movie	3-day pace	Prev 3-day	Prev 3-day	Last Day
Turtles Total	42.43%	15.13%	18.38%	14.13%
Barbie Total	49.22%	28.82%	21.18%	15.74%
Sonic 2 (Total)	26.79%	19.94%	18.92%	9.50%
Haunted Mansion Total	35.73%	18.93%	17.76%	16.21%
Indiana Jones	17.29%	12.35%	11.68%	10.17%
Fantastic Beasts 3	44.58%	26.77%	45.47%	10.02%
Transformers Total				8.39%
M:I 7 Total	25.71%	14.27%	18.97%	8.61%

 

Pretty good last day, but can't really line up individual days since most of these were Thursday previews.  3-day pace is on the higher end of comps, but overall looking solid.  Could see around 6.5m after including EA days.

 

Meg 2 T-8 comps

 - F9 - .053x (379k)

 - Massive Talent - 2.526x (1.77m)

 - Free Guy - .384x (845k)

 - Snake Eyes - .828x (1.16m)

 

This is around 24 hours on sale for the Meg.   I wouldn't expect this to be presale heavy, but more of a walkup movie.

Link to previous post

 

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Meg 2	T-7	Jax	5	26	13	39	3,549	1.10%
		Phx	5	28	5	12	4,088	0.29%
		Ral	8	21	5	20	2,522	0.79%
	Total		18	75	23	71	10,159	0.70%
Turtles	T-5	Jax	5	47	9	96	6,390	1.50%
		Phx	6	64	12	136	9,504	1.43%
		Ral	8	49	13	154	6,926	2.22%
	Total		19	160	34	386	22,820	1.69%
Turtles (EA)	T-2	Jax	4	6	13	135	384	35.16%
		Phx	1	1	19	55	169	32.54%
		Ral	3	3	9	136	433	31.41%
	Total		8	10	41	326	986	33.06%
	T-4	Jax	5	7	22	185	961	19.25%
		Phx	1	1	18	131	208	62.98%
	Total		7	9	40	316	1,169	27.03%

 

Turtles (Total) T-6 comps

 - Barbie (Total) - .215x (4.78m)

 - Sonic 2 (Total) - 1.15x (7.17m)

 - Haunted Mansion (Total) - 1.77x (5.56m w/ today's average)

 - Indiana Jones - .91x (6.55m)

 - Fantastic Beasts 3 - missed

 - Ghostbusters (Total) - missed

 - Dune - missed

 - Transformers (Total) - missed

 - M:I 7 (Total) - .771x (6.79m)

 

Size adjusted average - 6.29m

 

Turtles pace chart

 

Movie	3-day pace	Prev 3-day	Prev 3-day	Last Day
Turtles Total	46.44%	20.80%	14.75%	12.60%
Barbie Total	45.65%	31.00%	23.26%	9.53%
Sonic 2 (Total)	32.54%	22.04%	18.98%	12.70%
Haunted Mansion Total	43.10%	20.44%	17.96%	14.15%
Indiana Jones	30.33%	9.11%	13.96%	13.34%
M:I 7 Total	34.10%	14.08%	19.20%	11.27%

 

Last day right in line with comps.  Sticking with my average of 6.3m

 

Meg 2 T-8 comps

 - F9 - .074x (522k)

 - Massive Talent - 2.63x (1.84m)

 - Free Guy - .444x (976k)

 - Snake Eyes - .888x (1.24m)

[katnisscinnaplex]

Quote

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Gran Turismo	T-15	Jax	5	30	0	13	4,872	0.27%
		Phx	5	23	2	40	5,736	0.70%
		Ral	7	25	2	11	4,074	0.27%
	Total		17	78	4	64	14,682	0.44%
Gran Turismo (EA)	T-13	Jax	2	2	0	9	841	1.07%
	T-14	Jax	4	7	0	34	960	3.54%
		Phx	1	1	2	18	208	8.65%
		Ral	1	1	-1	8	261	3.07%
	Total		6	9	1	60	1,429	4.20%
	T-7	Jax	1	1	0	2	51	3.92%
		Phx	1	1	0	0	123	0.00%
	Total		3	3	0	2	174	1.15%
Last Voyage	T-15	Jax	4	10	3	3	999	0.30%
		Phx	2	5	1	1	457	0.22%
		Ral	4	11	4	4	1,093	0.37%
	Total		10	26	8	8	2,549	0.31%

 

Gran Turismo (Total) T-15 comps

 - F9 - .25x (1.77m)

 - John Wick 4 - .206x (1.84m)

 - M:I 7 (Total) - .204x (1.79m)

 - Haunted Mansion (Total) - .54x (2.37m w/ today's average)

Link to previous post

 

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Gran Turismo	T-14	Jax	5	30	-1	12	4,872	0.25%
		Phx	5	23	4	44	5,736	0.77%
		Ral	7	25	-1	10	4,074	0.25%
	Total		17	78	2	66	14,682	0.45%
Gran Turismo (EA)	T-12	Jax	2	2	0	9	841	1.07%
	T-13	Jax	4	7	8	42	960	4.38%
		Phx	1	1	5	23	208	11.06%
		Ral	1	1	0	8	261	3.07%
	Total		6	9	13	73	1,429	5.11%
	T-6	Jax	1	1	0	2	51	3.92%
		Phx	1	1	0	0	123	0.00%
	Total		3	3	0	2	174	1.15%
Last Voyage	T-14	Jax	5	12	5	8	1,387	0.58%
		Phx	3	8	0	1	651	0.15%
		Ral	5	13	2	6	1,193	0.50%
	Total		13	33	7	15	3,231	0.46%

 

Gran Turismo (Total) T-14 comps

 - F9 - .263x (1.87m)

 - John Wick 4 - .208x (1.85m)

 - M:I 7 (Total) - .217x (1.91m)

 - Haunted Mansion (Total) - .566x (1.78m w/ today's average)

 

Is this really gonna be this simple to predict?

 

Still too early to glean anything from Last Voyage

[katnisscinnaplex]

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Strays	T-21	Jax	5	12	6	6	1,615	0.37%
		Phx	4	16	3	3	1,821	0.16%
		Ral	5	15	8	8	2,196	0.36%
	Total		14	43	17	17	5,632	0.30%
Strays (EA)	T-20	Jax	2	2	1	1	225	0.44%
		Phx	2	2	0	0	279	0.00%
		Ral	3	3	0	0	418	0.00%
	Total		7	7	1	1	922	0.11%

 

Gasp... another EA.

 

Too early to comp, just wanted to get a starting point.

[filmlover]

Didn't the first Meg make about 3/4 its worldwide total outside the US? A potential underperformance here is probably not what concerns the studio.

[Brainbug]

1 minute ago, filmlover said:

Didn't the first Meg make about 3/4 its worldwide total outside the US? A potential underperformance here is probably not what concerns the studio.

 

It made 72% (or 385M) in OS countrys, yep. Meg 2 is also poised to be HUGE in China, so thats where it will make most of its money.

[emoviefan]

it seems like the reviews did not do Haunted Mansion any favors. That is why I am not on the 100 million train for this. Disappointing I was looking forward to this but I think it is a wait for D+ movie now. As for Meg 2 unless walkups are massive not looking good. 

[The GOAT]

Look at all those flops 

 

[The GOAT]

I remember when First Meg was going to open to a $20 mil OW. But then the thing had massive walk ups. It won’t be able to do the same with Barbie and Oppy playing in theaters

Edited July 27, 2023 by The GOAT

[katnisscinnaplex]

16 minutes ago, The GOAT said:

I remember when First Meg was going to open to a $20 mil OW. But then the thing had massive walk ups. It won’t be able to do the same with Barbie and Oppy playing in theaters

 

It could.  I wouldn't write it off yet

[Brainbug]

Without any irony, The Meg 2 could surprise (30-40M OW range) like the first one did, but probably on a smaller scale. Creature Features are more popular than many people assume i think and we didnt have one for quite a long time now. Plus, its definetly a very different movie compared to everything else playing right now.

[keysersoze123]

14 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Haunted Mansion MTC1

Wednesday - 15303/21841 325113.47 115 shows

Previews - 31237/351872 505150.33 2321 shows

Haunted Mansion MTC1 

Previews - 37502/354604 596307.02 2346 shows

Friday - 35481/590110 541772.93 3973 shows

 

 

Nothing much has changed. Both numbers are of this morning, with Friday was taken before thursday. There is no sign of this movie having a big internal multiplier at this point. Let us see where the previews end. 

[kayumanggi]

 

[kayumanggi]

 

[kayumanggi]

 

[Brainbug]

2 minutes ago, kayumanggi said:

 

 

The most comparable period to the weekend ahead will be May 3 – 5, 2019. That was Avengers: Endgame‘s second weekend of release, and the market grossed an overall $199.9 million. Endgame accounted for $147.4 million of that revenue as a holdover with the best-ever second weekend gross in history.

 

@Shawn i apologize if i misunderstood the text here, but the biggest second weekend gross of all time was TFA with 149M.

[Shawn Robbins]

21 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

 

The most comparable period to the weekend ahead will be May 3 – 5, 2019. That was Avengers: Endgame‘s second weekend of release, and the market grossed an overall $199.9 million. Endgame accounted for $147.4 million of that revenue as a holdover with the best-ever second weekend gross in history.

 

@Shawn i apologize if i misunderstood the text here, but the biggest second weekend gross of all time was TFA with 149M.

Typo on my part. Thanks for the ping!