The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[XXR & Friends]

1 minute ago, HummingLemon said:

$3.0M previews would put breakeven $300M worldwide completely off the table. I don't see how its worldwide total will reach 100x its previews.

 

You've been providing a lot of commentary about the prospects of this film and the tracking thread isn't the place for it. Please take it to the Blue Beetle thread. 

[keysersoze123]

13m for Oppy after losing many imax would be too good to be true. Let us wait and see how the weekend goes. 

 

On Blue beetle its thursday PS will be ahead by end of day today at better pace. Friday PS looks like being slightly behind Shazam. Let us see how walkups go. its not outrageous for it to hit deadline numbers above but I want to see how things go tomorrow when reviews will be out. It cannot afford a Shazam 2 kind of reviews. 

[HummingLemon]

2 minutes ago, XXR Dar-Benn said:

 

You've been providing a lot of commentary about the prospects of this film and the tracking thread isn't the place for it. Please take it to the Blue Beetle thread. 

[vafrow]

On 8/13/2023 at 1:44 PM, vafrow said:

 

I didn't even think to check Strays in my area, as it's not playing in my local.

 

I checked my southern Ontario radius, and it's worse than you'd probably guess.

 

Across 28 theatres and 84 showtimes that have it open for Thursday previews across that full GTA and southern western radius up to London, it's only at 21 tickets sold.

 

I didn't record my numbers for it, but this is around what I was seeing for Ruby Gillman. 

 

I should include this as a comp for my next Blue Beetle update. BB is doing 20x the sales.

 

Strays update, T-2 southern Ontario

 

I figured I'd do a Strays update for my region. 21 tickets turned to 56 in the last 48 ors or so. Growth, but still sad.

 

Notably, it seems to do better more rural and suburban. Not a huge amount, but it felt like a bit of a trend.

[JustLurking]

7 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Dont forget friday has another day of presales relative to previews and walkups are generally better on Friday as schools open. There is also greater expansion of Friday shows than previews at this point. That said I am not saying 8.5x is in play. Its a SH movie after all despite this being an unknown character with no fan base. I would say 6-7x for now with above average reception. 

Yeah I wasn't trying to say friday would do worse than previews (that'd be embarassing), just that there's no sign in there that we're looking at a backloaded opening to me, it looks like usual CBM stuff to me.

[Porthos]

Quick and Dirty Blue Beetle Sacto Report [T-2]

792/18022 [4.39% sold] [+164 tickets]

 

0.30829x Black Adam at T-2             [2.34m]
0.97899x Shazam 2 at T-2                 [3.43m]
0.33235x Fast X at T-2                       [2.49m]
1.17682x Elemental at T-2                  [2.82m]
0.28065x Flash at T-2                        [2.72m]
0.72461x Haunted Mansion at T-2    [2.25m]

 

===========

 

Been gaining rapidly on Shazam 2 (was something like 75% to 80% of it a couple of days ago) but that's also the best case scenario.

 

Here's where I throw out a couple of cautionary notes, in both directions.  As I've said countless times, for whatever reason, DC just plays softly in this market.  On the other hand, I would expect the Hispanic demo to help somewhat counteract that. 

 

On the other flip side, comparing a film that seems to be charting anywhere from 2.5m to 3.75m against ones that did 7m or more is... not wise. At all. On the other other hand, Haunted Mansion and Elemental aren't great comps either.

 

When it comes right down to it, accelerating against Shazam 2 is a good sign.  But that's also the best sign it has, so perhaps best not to read too much into it. 

 

Now we see whether or not Tomato Law comes into play.

Edited August 16, 2023 by Porthos

[vafrow]

22 hours ago, vafrow said:

 

Blue Beetle, T-3, southern Ontario

 

Okay day of sales, getting to 585, for 91 new sales, and a 18% increase.

 

Locally, unadjusted comps are

 

0.435x Flash for $4.2M

0.870x T:ROTB for $7.7M

 

When adjusting to the regional numbers, it gets me a range of $2.3M to $4.1M

 

Blue Beetle, T-2, southern Ontario

 

Good growth today, with ticket total reaching 753, with 168 new sales. Growth rate of 29%.

 

Local unadjusted comps are

0.370x Flash for $3.6M

0.869x T:ROTB for $6.8M

 

Adjusting to regional totals keeps range to $2.2M to $4.1M.

 

 

 

[poweranimals]

So what time does the review embargo lift today?

Edited August 16, 2023 by poweranimals

[efialtes76]

1 hour ago, poweranimals said:

So what time does the review embargo lift today?

10am(PT).

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 8/15/2023 at 8:49 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Blue Beetle	T-2	Jax	5	42	43	164	6,627	2.47%
		Phx	6	49	27	164	9,439	1.74%
		Ral	8	35	35	205	4,792	4.28%
	Total		19	126	105	533	20,858	2.56%
Gran Turismo (EA)	T-3	Jax	4	4	0	7	821	0.85%
		Phx	4	4	1	3	544	0.55%
		Ral	2	2	4	20	155	12.90%
	Total		10	10	5	30	1,520	1.97%
	T-4	Jax	4	8	10	18	1,642	1.10%
		Phx	4	8	17	26	1,098	2.37%
		Ral	2	4	0	9	310	2.90%
	Total		10	20	27	53	3,050	1.74%
	T-5	Jax	4	4	3	7	821	0.85%
		Phx	4	5	-1	3	670	0.45%
		Ral	2	2	0	4	155	2.58%
	Total		10	11	2	14	1,646	0.85%
Strays	T-2	Jax	6	16	-1	38	1,948	1.95%
		Phx	6	25	9	40	3,163	1.26%
		Ral	6	21	6	39	2,877	1.36%
	Total		18	62	14	117	7,988	1.46%
Strays (EA)	T-1	Jax	3	3	7	21	352	5.97%
		Phx	3	3	2	7	403	1.74%
		Ral	4	4	9	36	506	7.11%
	Total		10	10	18	64	1,261	5.08%

 

Strays (Total) T-2 comps

 - Easter Sunday - 2.011x (1.01m)

 - Joy Ride (Total) - .83x (913k)

 - 80 for Brady (Total) - .363x (462k)

 - Cocaine Bear - .562x (1.12m)

 - Violent Night - 1.183x (1.3m) 

 - Turtles (Total) - .116x (649k)

 - Magic Mike 3 - .673x (673k)

 

Size adjusted average - 936k

Still thinking around 1m for this with EA included.  Final day will be key for comedies.

 

Blue Beetle T-2 comps

 - Cocaine Bear - 1.66x (3.31m)

 - Bullet Train - 1.02x (3.4m)

 - Turtles - .73x (3.49m)

 - Suicide Squad - .73x (2.99m)

 - Shazam 2 - .745x (2.53m)

 - Black Adam - .286x (2.18m)

 - Flash - .232x (2.25m)

 - Morbius - .376x (2.14m)

 - Snake Eyes - 2.33x (3.26m)

 

Size adjusted average - 3.01m

 

Blue Beetle pace chart

Movie	3-day pace	Prev 3-day	Prev 3-day	Last Day
Blue Beetle	57.69%	34.62%	24.43%	24.53%
Cocaine Bear				32.51%
Bullet Train	56.72%	27.46%	12.76%	20.97%
Turtles	52.33%	23.83%	24.83%	9.50%
Suicide Squad	54.33%	27.70%	14.04%	18.31%
Shazam 2	30.47%	11.13%	8.01%	11.37%
Black Adam	44.82%	23.27%
Flash	36.12%	17.05%	15.56%	14.44%
Morbius	58.44%	18.10%	21.69%	26.49%

Snake Eyes

112.04%

46.30%

50.00%

38.79%

 

3-day is right in track with the non-CBM movies.  Morbius with the closest 3-day and last day.  Sticking with 3m. 

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Blue Beetle	T-1	Jax	5	55	41	205	7,933	2.58%
		Phx	6	52	51	215	9,482	2.27%
		Ral	8	41	74	279	5,880	4.74%
	Total		19	148	166	699	23,295	3.00%
Gran Turismo (EA)	T-2	Jax	4	4	3	10	821	1.22%
		Phx	4	4	2	5	544	0.92%
		Ral	2	2	4	24	155	15.48%
	Total		10	10	9	39	1,520	2.57%
	T-3	Jax	4	8	13	31	1,642	1.89%
		Phx	4	8	4	30	1,098	2.73%
		Ral	2	4	7	16	310	5.16%
	Total		10	20	24	77	3,050	2.52%
	T-4	Jax	4	5	1	8	712	1.12%
		Phx	4	5	2	5	670	0.75%
		Ral	2	2	6	10	155	6.45%
	Total		10	12	9	23	1,537	1.50%
Strays	T-1	Jax	6	21	20	58	2,430	2.39%
		Phx	6	25	12	52	3,163	1.64%
		Ral	7	26	4	43	3,227	1.33%
	Total		19	72	36	153	8,820	1.73%
Strays (EA)	T-0	Jax	3	3	3	24	352	6.82%
		Phx	4	4	17	24	449	5.35%
		Ral	4	4	18	54	506	10.67%
	Total		11	11	38	102	1,307	7.80%

 

Strays (Total) T-1 comps

 - Easter Sunday - 2.406x (1.2m)

 - Joy Ride (Total) - .966x (1.06m)

 - 80 for Brady (Total) - .458x (581k)*

 - Cocaine Bear - .61x (1.22m)

 - Violent Night - 1.342x (1.48m) 

 - Turtles (Total) - .143x (800k)

 - Magic Mike 3 - .77x (770k)

 

*I realized I had been using previews only comp for 80 for Brady.  

 

Size adjusted average - 1.05m

Still thinking around 1m for this with EA included.  Final day will be key for comedies.

 

Strays (previews) pace chart

Movie	3-day pace	Prev 3-day	Prev 3-day	Last Day
Strays			18.46%	30.77%
Easter Sunday	85.96%	43.86%	0.00%	17.78%
Joy Ride	57.14%	14.29%	35.71%	42.59%
80 for Brady	60.99%	31.91%	26.04%	25.41%
Cocaine Bear			12.73%	29.81%
Violent Night				24.18%
Turtles	58.06%	33.76%	22.73%	25.00%
Magic Mike 3	79.89%	27.72%	36.84%	23.05%

EA had a big jump, but previews also had a nice day - ahead of everything other than Joy Ride.  Missing Sunday messed up the 3-days, but they'll be back tomorrow.

 

Blue Beetle T-1 comps

 - Cocaine Bear - 1.67x (3.34m)

 - Bullet Train - .943x (3.16m)

 - Turtles - .95x (3.66m)

 - Suicide Squad - .73x (2.99m)

 - Shazam 2 - .84x (2.86m)

 - Black Adam - .306x (2.33m)

 - Flash - .252x (2.44m)

 - Morbius - .404x (2.3m)

 - Snake Eyes - 2.24x (3.14m)

 

Size adjusted average - 3.05m

 

Blue Beetle pace chart:

Movie	3-day pace	Prev 3-day	Prev 3-day	Last Day
Blue Beetle			29.53%	31.14%
Cocaine Bear			12.73%	29.81%
Bullet Train	100.81%	26.56%	19.93%	41.14%
Turtles	58.06%	33.76%	22.73%	25.00%
Suicide Squad	86.74%	22.81%	23.74%	31.23%
Shazam 2	44.44%	13.89%	7.86%	16.36%
Black Adam				22.68%
Flash	52.59%	17.60%	15.82%	20.66%
Morbius	76.09%	20.24%	21.81%	22.07%
Snake Eyes	143.75%	37.50%	55.00%	36.24%

 

As expected, will continue to gain on other CBM movies since their earlier sales make the increase % smaller.  I see no reason to move off 3m yet.

[keysersoze123]

12 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Blue Beetle MTC1

Previews(T-3) - 29845/517114 515563.97 2559 shows +3767

Friday - 19719/691398 334041.79 3377 shows

Blue Beetle MTC1

Previews(T-2) -  34063/575282 586161.53 2965 shows +4218

Friday - 23941/809054 402856.25 4147 shows

 

Overall meh growth for previews. Its still ahead of Shazam 2 for thursday and slightly behind for Friday as I had put in yesterday. 

 

 

 

[katnisscinnaplex]

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Gran Turismo	T-8	Jax	5	28	1	6	3,574	0.17%
		Phx	6	31	3	10	5,631	0.18%
		Ral	7	26	5	12	3,427	0.35%
	Total		18	85	9	28	12,632	0.22%

 

I've been tracking this since it went back on sale but it really hasn't been worth posting.  Expecting sales to start jumping after all the EA shows pass (T-3)

 

GT T-8 comps

 - F9 - .031x (221k)

 - MI:7 - .047x (302k)

 - Haunted Mansion - .103x (299k)

 - Turtles - .095x (367k)

 - Jungle Cruise - .212x (573k)

 - Lost City - .167x (417k)

 - Free Guy - .224x (493k)

[katnisscinnaplex]

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Equalizer 3	T-15	Jax	5	46	15	15	8,308	0.18%
		Phx	6	32	29	29	6,700	0.43%
		Ral	4	25	15	15	4,638	0.32%
	Total		15	103	59	59	19,646	0.30%

 

Equalizer 3 T-15 comps 

 - John Wick 4 - .09x (803k)

 - Matrix 4 - .09x (574k)

 - F9 - .109x (774k)

 

Not really great comps since the others had been on sale for a long time.  It's getting a pretty good starting set of shows with IMAX and Dolby among other PLFs.  

[vafrow]

Equalizer 3 tickets are now available on Cineplex.

 

I'm not at home today, so my radius is different than my usual, but, it appears that it's playing in 40 out of a maximum 47 theatres in the roughly 150km radius that I can see in the app.

 

Edit: did a quick sweep. Only two tickets sold in my radius right now.

Edited August 16, 2023 by vafrow

[Spidey Freak]

18 hours ago, Seto Kaiba said:

In what is poised to be a case of Warner Bros beating itself for the No. 1 spot at the box office this coming weekend, the studio’s new DC superhero title, Blue Beetle, is poised to halt Barbie‘s three-weekend streak with a $28M-$32M opening. Barbie, meanwhile per industry sources, is looking at a $22M-$24M fourth weekend, -30%. Through Monday, the Greta Gerwig directed Mattel doll feature counts $531.2M.

 

Universal has the second new wide release this weekend, that being the R-rated potty talking doggies comedy, Strays looks to do in the teens. 

 

Universal’s fourth weekend of Oppenheimer looks to do $12M-$13M per industry sources. The pic through Monday did $266.9M. Paramount’s Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem in weekend three is eyeing $10M-$12M. 

 

https://deadline.com/2023/08/blue-beetle-barbie-strays-box-office-1235520300/

 

LMAO Deadline! It's Barbie's 5th weekend after 4 weekends at #1

[misterpepp]

Greek Wedding 3 tix on sale Aug 22

[Eric is Anxious]

Quorum Updates

Back on the Strip T-2: 20.61% Awareness

My Big Fat Greek Wedding T-23: 35.38% Awareness

It Lives Inside T-37: 18.64% Awareness

Ferrari T-131: 16.93% Awareness

The Tiger's Apprentice T-156: 12.27% Awareness

 

Blue Beetle T-2: 42.2% Awareness

Final Awareness: 89% chance of 10M, 59% chance of 20M, 37% chance of 30M, 22% chance of 40M, 11% chance of 70M

DC/MCU Awareness: 100% chance of 70M

 

Strays T-2: 47.95% Awareness

Final Awareness: 89% chance of 10M, 59% chance of 20M

Original - Low Awareness: 100% chance of 10M, 25% chance of 20M

 

Retribution T-9: 30.23% Awareness

Final Awareness: 33% chance of 10M, 2% chance of 20M

Original - Low Awareness: 22% chance of 10M

 

A Haunting in Venice T-30: 21.03% Awareness

T-30 Awareness: 51% chance of 10M, 19% chance of 20M

Sequel Awareness: 67% chance of 10M, 33% chance of 20M

 

Expend4bles T-37: 33.49% Awareness

T-30 Awareness: 87% chance of 10M, 61% chance of 20M

Sequel Awareness: 50% chance of 10M

[Porthos]

Topline at RT is very strong for Blue Beetle (curr: 88) after the initial wave of reviews (avg score is somewhat another matter [6.9]). 

 

The avg score suggests it'll probably come down a tick and perhaps settle in the low to mid 80s but for casuals just glancing at the current RT right now, it should lead to a nice review bounce today.

 

Mind, as always, disentangling the typical day-before-release bump from a review bump is problematic in the best of situations, never mind when a what should be walkup friendly film is part of the equation.

 

Either way, this is getting very nice initial reviews and that should help it quite a bit today.

 

[abracadabra1998]

8 minutes ago, Eric Reyes said:

Strays T-2: 47.95% Awareness

Final Awareness: 89% chance of 10M, 59% chance of 20M

Original - Low Awareness: 100% chance of 10M, 25% chance of 20M

 

Crazy high awareness for Strays, perhaps a portent of a strong final day of sales

[HummingLemon]

I'm waiting for TFL's T-1 tracking update. I'm wondering how much of a bump the "positive" reviews are gonna help this. Still thinking $28-30M OW ($4M * 7-7.5)

 

Despite positive reviews, Guardians 3 only opened to a low $118.4M. I know it was "tracking" for <$100M but I never bought that. So I am skeptical how much the review "bump" is gonna help Blue Beetle