The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[Eric Prime]

Quorum Updates

Golda T-4: 19.42% Awareness

A Haunting in Venice T-25: 25.15% Awareness

Eileen T-109: 10.45% Awareness

 

Gran Turismo T-4: 40.21% Awareness

Final Awareness: 86% chance of 10M, 59% chance of 20M, 34% chance of 30M

Medium Awareness: 73% chance of 10M, 64% chance of 20M, 54% chance of 30M

 

The Hill T-4: 25.23% Awareness

Final Awareness: 16% chance of 10M

Low Awareness: 13% chance of 10M

 

Retribution T-4: 31.74% Awareness

Final Awareness: 32% chance of 10M

Low Awareness: 23% chance of 10M

 

The Equalizer 3 T-11: 53.49% Awareness

Final Awareness: 100% chance of 10M, 90% chance of 20M, 70% chance of 30M

Medium Awareness: 100% chance of 20M, 60% chance of 30M

 

The Creator T-39: 14.09% Awareness

T-30 Awareness: 12% chance of 10M

Medium Awareness: 0% chance of 10M

 

Paw Patrol: The Mighty Movie T-39: 34.65% Awareness

T-30 Awareness: 87% chance of 10M, 61% chance of 20M, 43% chance of 30M

Animation/Family Awareness: 80% chance of 10M, 40% chance of 20M

 

Saw X T-39: 40.83% Awareness

T-30 Awareness: 100% chance of 20M, 93% chance of 30M, 73% chance of 40M

Horror Awareness: 100% chance of 30M

[Mojoguy]

Are you guys going to even bother doing sellout reports for National Cinema Day on 8/27?

 

I remember hearing even The Black Phone was selling out on NCD last year, even though it was for free on streaming on Peacock. People were going just to have something to do.

 

Seems like it would be easier to just say every showing on Sunday will sell out and move on.

[katnisscinnaplex]

Early US showtime sample for Sunday:

 

Gran Turismo: 9,597 (1,425 TC)

Barbie: 6,722 (1,179 TC)

Blue Beetle: 6,146 (1,189 TC)

Strays: 5,500 (1,103 TC)

Ninja Turtles: 4,715 (971 TC)

Retribution: 3,607 (719 TC)

Oppenheimer: 3,604 (912 TC)

Meg 2: The Trench: 2,588 (616 TC)

The Hill: 2,547 (589 TC)

Golda: 2,013 (429 TC)

Jurassic Park 3D: 1,213 (554 TC)

American Graffiti 50th: 935 (580 TC)

Haunted Mansion: 523 (191 TC)

Sound of Freedom: 504 (188 TC)

M:I7: 440 (278 TC)

Mario Bros: 370 (202 TC)

The Little Mermaid: 356 (160 TC)

Last Voyage: 325 (158 TC)

Talk to Me: 253 (113 TC)

 

Still early, but should give an idea of the breakdown.  I'll try to remember to break these out on Friday.

[abracadabra1998]

18 hours ago, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews: (numbers taken at around 4 PM CST as usual)

 

Gran Turismo (T-4):

Day: T-4	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 15 theaters	60	30	73	11644	0.68

 

Comps:

0.31x Blue Beetle- $1.02 Million

0.38x Haunted Mansion (just Thursday)- $1.17 Million

 

Not great but it's all about these last few days, interested to see if good WOM from the EA shows shows up in these sales.

 

The Equalizer (T-11):

Day: T-11	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 16 theaters	75	59	59	13946	0.42

 

I don't have great comps for this, but I tracked The Woman King last year and I think it might be a decent comp at that point of time (T-4 on). Don't really wanna compare this with the huge summer blockbusters

 

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Gran Turismo (T-3):

Day: T-3	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 15 theaters	63	16	89	11995	0.74

 

Comps:

0.3x Blue Beetle- $976k

0.37x Haunted Mansion (just Thursday)- $1.14 Million

 

Dropped against both.

[keysersoze123]

On 8/16/2023 at 6:07 PM, keysersoze123 said:

Equalizer 3 MTC1 previews - 4828/414432 83323.58 2037 shows

 

Even worse than Blue Beetle. But this is a Denzel action flick and so I am expecting it to sell close to release than 15 days to go. 

Equalizer 3 MTC1

Previews - 8383/437345 147400.83 2133 shows

Friday - 6253/662230 101713.19 3164 shows

 

There is still about 10 days to go before previews start. So let us see where things are next Monday. 

[Boxofficerules]

4 hours ago, Eric Reyes said:

Quorum Updates

 

Saw X T-39: 40.83% Awareness

T-30 Awareness: 100% chance of 20M, 93% chance of 30M, 73% chance of 40M

Horror Awareness: 100% chance of 30M

That can't be right can it? How accurate is Quorum?

[TheFlatLannister]

23 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville greater region 

 

THE EQUALIZER 3

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-11

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
170	303	29254	1.0%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

39

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-11

 

(0.268x) of Mi7 (TUES ONLY)

~$1.87M THUR Previews

 

(0.203x) of Fast X

~$1.52M THUR Previews

 

Comps AVG: $1.70M

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville greater region 

 

THE EQUALIZER 3

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-10

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
174	349	30629	1.1%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

46

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

4

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-10

 

(0.299x) of Mi7 (TUES ONLY)

~$2.10M THUR Previews

 

(0.223x) of Fast X

~$1.67M THUR Previews

 

Comps AVG: $1.89M

 

Pretty good day locally. Heading to $2M based on pace.

[TheFlatLannister]

On 8/20/2023 at 6:24 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville greater region 

 

Gran Turismo 

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-4

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
166	359	30548	1.2%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

20

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-4

 

(0.178x) of Fast X

~$1.34M THUR Previews

 

(0.194x) of Mi7 (only TUES)

~$1.36M THUR Previews

 

(0.336x) of Blue Beetle

~$1.11M THUR Previews

 

Comps AVG: $1.27M

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville greater region 

 

Gran Turismo 

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-3

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
171	469	31243	1.5%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

110

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

5

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-3

 

(0.212x) of Fast X

~$1.59M THUR Previews

 

(0.239x) of Mi7 (only TUES)

~$1.67M THUR Previews

 

(0.429x) of Blue Beetle

~$1.42M THUR Previews

 

Comps AVG: $1.56M

 

Pretty great growth. My early prediction would be ~$1.5M Thursday preview. 

[Ezen Baklattan]

With Gran Turismo, nothing will surprise me, it had so many extra preview showings that I expect Thursday + EA will be more than True Friday lol

[poweranimals]

Man it's gonna be a boring next couple months until November.

[Porthos]

15 minutes ago, poweranimals said:

Man it's gonna be a boring next couple months until November.

 

I am hoping (probably in vain) for a mini-breakout for The Creator, personally. 

 

It has the potential, at least, to breakout (again for given definitions of "break out") given the legit low-level buzz surrounding it. But whether it actually does or not, only the gods know.

[abracadabra1998]

29 minutes ago, poweranimals said:

Man it's gonna be a boring next couple months until November.

Movie delays and Oppenheimer breaking out is giving me hope for Killers of the Flower Moon, so much good buzz around that that I hope reaches the general audience.

 

Btw, not too late to join my over $300M worldwide club for that

[filmlover]

12 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

I am hoping (probably in vain) for a mini-breakout for The Creator, personally. 

 

It has the potential, at least, to breakout (again for given definitions of "break out") given the legit low-level buzz surrounding it. But whether it actually does or not, only the gods know.

It does have a pretty open field as the first PG-13 aspiring tentpole in a while and won't have any direct competition until November. As long as reviews/WOM are solid, I think it's one of those that could be around for a while as long as it opens solid enough (preferably $25M+ but even $20M would be acceptable-ish levels for this type of movie too).

[El Gato]

10 hours ago, Mojoguy said:

Are you guys going to even bother doing sellout reports for National Cinema Day on 8/27?

 

I remember hearing even The Black Phone was selling out on NCD last year, even though it was for free on streaming on Peacock. People were going just to have something to do.

 

Seems like it would be easier to just say every showing on Sunday will sell out and move on.

National Cinema Day already effecting segueing for Blue Beetle and Barbie near me. So many sell outs! Had to go to the OC area to get my tickets for Sunday lol 

 

I’m curious how Sunday will effect the box office this weekend

[Bob Train]

3 hours ago, abracadabra1998 said:

Movie delays and Oppenheimer breaking out is giving me hope for Killers of the Flower Moon, so much good buzz around that that I hope reaches the general audience.

 

Btw, not too late to join my over $300M worldwide club for that

Leo not being able to promote it is unfortunate, and Paramount doesn't seem like they're doing much either. Hope it does well.

[vafrow]

On 8/21/2023 at 5:34 AM, vafrow said:

 

Gran Turismo, southern Ontario, Thursday previews, T-4

 

Total sales: 220

New sales: 45

Growth from yesterday: 25%

Theatre Count: 50

Showtimes: 177

Ticket per showtime: 1.243

Coverage Radius: 143km

Estimated population coverage: 8-10M

Regional comps

0.445x of Blue Beetle for $1.5M

 

Local comps regionally adjusted

 

0.169x Fast X for $1.5M

0.089x T:ROTB for $0.7M

 

Decent growth. With the weekend EA shows done, maybe it's triggering more sales. It's still nothing really special though.

 

Gran Turismo, southern Ontario, Thursday previews, T-3

 

Total sales: 338

New sales: 118

Growth from yesterday: 54%

Theatre Count: 50

Showtimes: 177

Ticket per showtime: 1.91

Theatres Tracked: MTC4

Coverage Radius: 143km

Estimated population coverage: 8-10M

 

Regional comps

0.578x of Blue Beetle for $1.9M

 

Local comps regionally adjusted

 

0.249x Fast X for $2.2M

0.110x T:ROTB for $0.8M

 

Really good day. Comps all went up and giving some hope for $2M.

[vafrow]

On 8/21/2023 at 5:54 AM, vafrow said:

 

Equalizer 3, Thursday previews T-11, southern Ontario

 

Total sales:  91

New Sales: 16

Growth from yesterday: 21%

Theatre Count:  43

Showtimes:  148

Tickets per showtime: 0.615

Coverage Radius: 143km

Estimated population coverage: 8-10M

 

Regional comp

0.557x Blue Beetle for $1.8M

 

It went up against the comp, but, still pretty meh.

 

Equalizer 3, Thursday previews T-10, southern Ontario

 

Total sales:  98

New Sales: 7

Growth from yesterday: 8%

Theatre Count:  43

Showtimes:  148

Tickets per showtime: 0.66

Coverage Radius: 143km

Estimated population coverage: 8-10M

Theatres Tracked: MTC4

Regional comp

0.557x Blue Beetle for $1.8M

 

Not a great day, but similar to its comp, so it's not a disaster.

Edited August 22, 2023 by vafrow

[charlie Jatinder]

GT MiniTC2 T-3
 

Pre - 131/34648 (130 showings) $1652
Fri - 174/46383 (163 showings) $2449
 

NCD - 1473/52840 (205 showings) $5892

Edited August 22, 2023 by across the Jat verse

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 8/21/2023 at 8:31 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Gran Turismo	T-3	Jax	5	51	23	50	8,950	0.56%
		Phx	6	38	6	55	7,562	0.73%
		Ral	8	32	8	55	4,487	1.23%
	Total		19	121	37	160	20,999	0.76%

 

GT T-3 comps

 - F9 - .11x (785k)

 - MI:7 - .144x (920k)

 - Haunted Mansion - .322x (934k)

 - Turtles - .298x (1.15m)

 - Jungle Cruise - .669x (1.81m)

 - Lost City - .586x (1.47m)

 - Free Guy - .525x (1.15m)

 - Meg 2 - .717x (2.3m)

 

Size adjusted avg - 1.98m

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Golda	T-1	Jax	2	4	104	104	366	28.42%
		Phx	2	4	33	33	364	9.07%
		Ral	4	6	46	46	531	8.66%
	Total		8	14	183	183	1,261	14.51%
Gran Turismo	T-2	Jax	5	54	21	71	9,244	0.77%
		Phx	6	45	16	71	8,230	0.86%
		Ral	8	32	19	74	4,487	1.65%
	Total		19	131	56	216	21,961	0.98%
Jurassic 3D	T-2	Jax	3	6	19	19	326	5.83%
		Phx	4	6	25	25	617	4.05%
	Total		8	13	44	44	943	4.67%
Retribution	T-2	Jax	3	6	2	2	428	0.47%
		Phx	3	6	4	4	476	0.84%
		Ral	5	10	7	7	844	0.83%
	Total		11	22	13	13	1,748	0.74%
The Hill	T-2	Jax	3	6	11	11	428	2.57%
		Phx	3	7	2	2	495	0.40%
		Ral	5	10	7	7	770	0.91%
	Total		11	23	20	20	1,693	1.18%

 

GT T-2 comps

 - F9 - .125x (886k)

 - MI:7 - .172x (1.1m)

 - Haunted Mansion - .348x (1.01m)

 - Turtles - .367x (1.41m)

 - Jungle Cruise - .659x (1.78m)

 - Lost City - .619x (1.55m)

 - Free Guy - .615x (1.35m)

 - Meg 2 - .722x (2.31m)

 

Size adjusted avg - 1.99m

 

Golda T-1 comps

 - Respect - 1.743x (1.13m)

 - House of Guci - .504x (655k)

 - Cry Macho - .989x (1.58m)

 - Stillwater - 3.894x (1.09m)

 

Not sure what to expect for this.  Hadn't heard of it until yesterday.  Not sure if this is a Thursday release or if tomorrow is EA, but with most locations carrying two shows I figured that would be comparable to other previews for smaller movies.

 

The Hill T-2 comps

 - The Outfit - .909x

 - 12 Mighty Orphans - .87x

 - She Said - .8x (128k)

 - Stillwater - .625x

 

Retribution T-2 comps

 - Blacklight - .565x (127k)

 - Copshop - 1.182x (148k)

 - Memory - .542x

 - The Protege - .277x

 

Not much to report.

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 8/21/2023 at 8:37 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Equalizer 3	T-10	Jax	5	46	11	55	8,308	0.66%
		Phx	6	32	2	42	6,700	0.63%
		Ral	7	34	7	40	5,697	0.70%
	Total		18	112	20	137	20,705	0.66%

 

Equalizer 3 T-10 comps 

 - John Wick 4 - .14x (1.24m)

 - Matrix 4 - .116x (737k)

 - F9 - .17x (1.2m)

 - Bullet Train (Total) - .521x (2.4m)

 - Knock at the Cabin - 1.47x (2.14m)

 - Black Phone (Total) - .811x (2.43m)

 - Creed III - .471x (2.57m)

 

Added some other comps to the mix.

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Equalizer 3	T-9	Jax	5	46	3	58	8,308	0.70%
		Phx	6	32	4	46	6,700	0.69%
		Ral	7	34	10	50	5,697	0.88%
	Total		18	112	17	154	20,705	0.74%

 

Equalizer 3 T-9 comps 

 - John Wick 4 - .147x (1.31m)

 - Matrix 4 - .117x (743k)

 - F9 - .178x (1.27m)

 - Bullet Train (Total) - .505x (2.32m)

 - Knock at the Cabin - 1.56x (2.26m)

 - Black Phone (Total) - .87x (2.61m)

 - Creed III - .458x (2.5m)