The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[Porthos]

Now this is gonna legitimately sound insane, but bear with me a moment.

 

I think the best, most recent, comp from previews might be... Oppenheimer.

 

WHAT?

 

Yep.

 

The special event ticket price should make it a higher ATP than even Ava 2.

 

But as @M37 is already stressing, it's more capacity.  We all saw how Barbenheimer caused a legitimate screen crunch.  Sacramento's fabled dark magic was defeated by it, for instance.  We just fucking ran out of room here locally for Thursday showings.

 

Showtimes increasing during the week-of previews is one of the sources of rapid ticket sales growth, along with folks deciding on seeing a movie that week.  

 

I have literally no idea how many showings are eventually gonna be given to this film, nor how wide spread it's gonna be.

 

What I do know is that it's gonna sell a metric fuck ton of tickets initially.  It's extrapolating any info out of those initial sales which is more... challenging.

[Eric is Anxious]

5 minutes ago, Nova said:

Are we talking about the same 30+ year olds who make friendship bracelets to exchange at her concerts cause if so then you better believe those same people will be lined up for this movie. 

 

Her fans are all die hards regardless of their age. And she’s only gotten bigger and bigger and bigger that almost feels like most people i meet are self proclaimed swifties. 

 

It’s actually wild in my opinion but I am

also a self proclaimed swiftie and will be attending this concert movie just like i attended the real life thing 😝

 

NOVA

 

Welcome back mah boi. Feels like it’s been ages since you posted here

[Madhuvan]

5 minutes ago, IronJimbo & Sheldon's Son said:

 

More showings just became available 👀

 

It wasn't even that serious

Or maybe Industry is expecting too much  after those pre sales

[keysersoze123]

7 minutes ago, IronJimbo & Sheldon's Son said:

 

More showings just became available 👀

 

I expected this for sure. You better get out of tsunami. I have to bump up its OW now for Exorcist. 

[Nova]

1 minute ago, Eric McCall said:

NOVA

 

Welcome back mah boi. Feels like it’s been ages since you posted here

Ugh i haven’t been around in forever because of residency and life 😅 

 

Have more free time now though 

[vafrow]

28 minutes ago, Mojoguy said:

Sure she has fans in their 30s, but I don't think they are the main ones going to her concert movie. Maybe they buy her newest albums, but this movie is going to be attracting mainly her younger audiences.

 

The explosion of demand for her tour, IMO, has been the aging of her audience. People who have the purchasing power to drive the demand on tickets.

 

There's definitely a big youth component to her demo, but it's the fact that it's now grown beyond that which has pushed her to this different level.

 

As for the limited dates, I'm guessing she's looking to limit supply and ensure it plays to packed houses.

 

If you're trying to create a concert environment, this is a way to do it.

 

I wouldn't be surprised if tour merch shows up at theatre chains.

 

I also think she's looking to see what level of power she can weild here. The limited dates and escalated price are two pretty big changes to the usual way things work, and it looks like neither audiences or theatre chains have minded at all.

[VanillaSkies]

1 minute ago, keysersoze123 said:

I expected this for sure. You better get out of tsunami. I have to bump up its OW now for Exorcist. 

going the week after Saw X doesn’t seem like the smartest move though…

[upriser7]

7 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Now this is gonna legitimately sound insane, but bear with me a moment.

 

I think the best, most recent, comp from previews might be... Oppenheimer.

 

WHAT?

 

Yep.

 

The special event ticket price should make it a higher ATP than even Ava 2.

 

But as @M37 is already stressing, it's more capacity.  We all saw how Barbenheimer caused a legitimate screen crunch.  Sacramento's fabled dark magic was defeated by it, for instance.  We just fucking ran out of room here locally for Thursday showings.

 

Showtimes increasing during the week-of previews is one of the sources of rapid ticket sales growth, along with folks deciding on seeing a movie that week.  

 

I have literally no idea how many showings are eventually gonna be given to this film, nor how wide spread it's gonna be.

 

What I do know is that it's gonna sell a metric fuck ton of tickets initially.  It's extrapolating any info out of those initial sales which is more... challenging.

With Exorcist now moving back to 10/6, you'd expect this to get more shows

[Porthos]

15 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Now this is gonna legitimately sound insane, but bear with me a moment.

 

I think the best, most recent, comp from previews might be... Oppenheimer.

 

WHAT?

 

Yep.

 

The special event ticket price should make it a higher ATP than even Ava 2.

 

But as @M37 is already stressing, it's more capacity.  We all saw how Barbenheimer caused a legitimate screen crunch.  Sacramento's fabled dark magic was defeated by it, for instance.  We just fucking ran out of room here locally for Thursday showings.

 

Showtimes increasing during the week-of previews is one of the sources of rapid ticket sales growth, along with folks deciding on seeing a movie that week.  

 

I have literally no idea how many showings are eventually gonna be given to this film, nor how wide spread it's gonna be.

 

What I do know is that it's gonna sell a metric fuck ton of tickets initially.  It's extrapolating any info out of those initial sales which is more... challenging.

 

BTW, Sacto?

 

Just did a check.

 

Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour (12:45pm - 1pm)

3919/12214 [32.08% sold] 

 

While that might seem like there's plenty of capacity, the A-tier theaters in town are already rapidly filling.  Century Arden, for instance is at 530/1063, with the overwhelming amount of tickets available being 10:30pm and later.

 

The near 4k tickets sold locally is about the same as Barbie at T-7.    It's already at 37% of Barbie's final total.

 

It's not quite at Super Size MCU Event level sales half/third day sales, but that really is the closest comparison we have.

 

And all of this is without one smaller chain, Cinema West.

 

======

 

Now I do have one concern that I believe @M37 made that I do share at least a little.  No idea whatsoever how many screens this will get and how many non-MTCs will get this film eventually.

 

That will absolutely matter when it comes to comps even if MTCs do get the lions share of ticket sales.

 

 

That being said, this is an absolute monster forming.  How much of a monster though, I don't know.

 

Edited August 31, 2023 by Porthos

[Porthos]

2 minutes ago, upriser7 said:

With Exorcist now moving back to 10/6, you'd expect this to get more shows

 

Made post before I saw that tweet, but yes.  Still, chain availability is also a concern, when comping off of big MTCs.

[Porthos]

7 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour (12:45pm - 1pm)

3919/12214 [32.08% sold] 

 

It's not quite at Super Size MCU Event level sales half/third day sales, but that really is the closest comparison we have.

 

And all of this is without one smaller chain, Cinema West.

 

 

Made an important edit to this post.

 

Why?

 

Some not-even-first full day comps:

 

NWH 2am:                     6515/20399 [31.94% sold]

NWH 2pm:                  10685/24528 [43.53% sold]

Batman 12:45 pm:         1693/32197 [5.26% sold]

MoM 1:00 pm:               5030/39515 [12.73% sold]

L&T 12:15pm:                 2519/31603 [7.97% sold]

BP2 2:15pm:                   2197/33919 [6.48% sold]

GOTG3 12:40pm:           1317/29568 [4.45% sold] 205 showtimes

Taylor Swift 1pm:           3919/12214 [32.08% sold] 

 

Yeah.  The No Way Home of concert event films sounds about right.

Edited August 31, 2023 by Porthos

[eman92]

7 minutes ago, VanillaSkies said:

going the week after Saw X doesn’t seem like the smartest move though…

Honestly it seems like a pretty stupid move on Exorcists part. They're kinda screwed either way though. If they stayed where they are then they compete against Taylor, if they moved a week up in October, they'd be going against Killers of the Flower Moon, and they can't move it to Oct 27th cause that's when Blumhouse's other film FNAF premieres. 

 

October 6th is pretty open but I still think its a mistake cause they now are moving their release up a week after they already started their promotion. And now just a week between Saw X and Exorcist, which will probably hurt both films, moreso Exorcist I'd assume since Saw X will have been out a week, and will have the advantage of premiering first. 

 

 

[keysersoze123]

15 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Equalizer 3 MTC1

Previews(T-1) - 36038/504526 605186.12 2614 shows +10700

Friday - 33470/822283 540967.00 4287 shows

 

Really strong T-1 for Equalizer. Normally I would say somewhere around 3.75-4x of T-1 would be done by end of day tomorrow. That is 75K finish. Even if its skews MTC1 due to "urban" audience, I dont see how it does not do something like 3.7m previews.

 

I am also thinking something like 8/10/9/7 for rest of the 4 day weekend for upper 30s 4 day weekend. 

Equalizer 3 MTC1 previews - 49871/501026 801405.75 2605 shows

 

now its up to walkups.  

[keysersoze123]

5 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

Made an important edit to this post.

 

Why?

 

Some not-even-first full day comps:

 

NWH 2am:                     6515/20399 [31.94% sold]

NWH 2pm:                  10685/24528 [43.53% sold]

Batman 12:45 pm:         1693/32197 [5.26% sold]

MoM 1:00 pm:               5030/39515 [12.73% sold]

L&T 12:15pm:                 2519/31603 [7.97% sold]

BP2 2:15pm:                   2197/33919 [6.48% sold]

GOTG3 12:40pm:           1317/29568 [4.45% sold] 205 showtimes

Taylor Swift 1pm:           3919/12214 [32.08% sold] 

 

Yeah.  The No Way Home of concert event films sounds about right.

I am sure they will add more shows shortly as these shows sellout. Then the comps will be way better. 

[Cmasterclay]

1 minute ago, keysersoze123 said:

Equalizer 3 MTC1 previews - 49871/501026 801405.75 2605 shows

 

now its up to walkups.  

How is this relative to yesterday's strong position?

[ThomasNicole]

22 minutes ago, Madhuvan said:

It wasn't even that serious

Or maybe Industry is expecting too much  after those pre sales

Is all about the conversation, it was okay for Barbie and Oppie to open together because the whole hype was about both linked.

 

Now, when Taylor concert drops EVERYONE on social media will be talking about it, we all know how swifties are engaged. 

Open Exorcist with Taylor basically means to be overshadowed out of the main conversation, and horror movies needs this since unlike most movies, they have a tendency to be more backloaded, even franchise movies.

 

It’s simply better to release before and have a momentum during it’s OW to be talked about which helps to bring awareness which is important for these movies.

Edited August 31, 2023 by ThomasNicole

[keysersoze123]

Just now, Cmasterclay said:

How is this relative to yesterday's strong position?

Still very good. I am sticking to 75K finish. Look at the tsunami it had to face this morning and still it increase very well from late night yesterday. 

[IronJimbo & Sheldon's Son]

I know it's got less than a 0.1% chance of beating Endgame's OW but the thought of marvel studios making one of these congratulation posters for Taylor Swift is hilarious to me

[Bob Train]

$10m+ in presales banked so far for the tour

https://deadline.com/2023/08/taylor-swift-eras-tour-movie-ticket-presales-box-office-1235533199/

 

Edited August 31, 2023 by Bob Train

[divesyn]

3 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Still very good. I am sticking to 75K finish. Look at the tsunami it had to face this morning and still it increase very well from late night yesterday. 

So 36-40m 4-day is basically locked?