The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[XXR vs XXR]

4 minutes ago, YM! said:

So Swift is easily going to be the biggest movie of the October to December season right?

 

Domestically, yes.

[vale9001]

6 minutes ago, YM! said:

So Swift is easily going to be the biggest movie of the October to December season right?

 

I don't know. The marvels should still make around 250M. So we should wait at least to see how It will perform in the second week.

I can see Scorsese movie being a success but that's mean like 100-150m total and would be already great.

The only other big release if i don't forget something is the Hunger games prequel, which i think it's not going over 200M Total if It's a success. 

 

If not for the Marvels should be 

Edited September 2, 2023 by vale9001

[emoviefan]

7 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

 

While I am not big fan of Quorum(I dont think they are that useful), above chart is interesting though I would take it with a grain of salt.

I do not even understand the Quorum reliance with some people. So many times I have looked it and just scoffed. 

[Deep Wang]

13 minutes ago, emoviefan said:

I do not even understand the Quorum reliance with some people. So many times I have looked it and just scoffed. 

 

I feel like someone needs to plot all this data and the actual numbers and see what's what and where they are most accurate/least accurate etc.  

 

Not me though lol

[abracadabra1998]

I’ve been meaning to ask this for a while, but how do y’all account for children v adults tickets when calculating ATP? Is it pure guesswork?

[vale9001]

37 minutes ago, abracadabra1998 said:

I’ve been meaning to ask this for a while, but how do y’all account for children v adults tickets when calculating ATP? Is it pure guesswork?

 

Yes but i guess similar movies have similar audiences. I mean if for a Marvel movie children are 15% for the One after probably they are gonna be or 13 or 17, not like 30%.

[Eric Lasagna]

58 minutes ago, Deep Wang said:

 

I feel like someone needs to plot all this data and the actual numbers and see what's what and where they are most accurate/least accurate etc.  

 

Not me though lol

Already doing that. I made this thread last year. Haven't updated to include 2023 data, but I do believe, at least in regards to Awareness, that there's a very strong correlation for most movies. And the 2023 data I have collected only furthers that IMO

 

 

[Deep Wang]

2 minutes ago, Eric McCall said:

Already doing that. I made this thread last year. Haven't updated to include 2023 data, but I do believe, at least in regards to Awareness, that there's a very strong correlation for most movies. And the 2023 data I have collected only furthers that IMO

 

 

 

Well okay then!  Awesome!

[TheFlatLannister]

23 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville greater region 

The Nun II

 

Thursday Previews 

T-6

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
156	425	27896	1.5%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

62

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-6

 

(1.316x) of Insidious: The Red Door ~$6.58M THUR Previews

 

(2.742x) of Talk to me ~$3.41M THUR Previews

 

(2.760x) of Boogeyman ~$3.04M THUR Previews

 

(1.949x) of Meg 2 ~$6.24M THUR Previews

 

Comps AVG: $4.82M

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville greater region 

The Nun II

 

Thursday Previews 

T-5

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
156	489	27896	1.8%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

64

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-5

 

(1.329x) of Insidious: The Red Door ~$6.64M THUR Previews

 

(2.601x) of Talk to me ~$3.24M THUR Previews

 

(2.374x) of Boogeyman ~$2.61M THUR Previews

 

(1.925x) of Meg 2 ~$6.16M THUR Previews

 

Comps AVG: $4.66M

[TheFlatLannister]

23 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville greater region 

 

MY BIG FAT GREEK WEDDING 3  

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-6

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
128	174	22768	0.76%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

11

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-6

 

(0.437x) of Strays ~$360k THUR Previews

 

(1.582x) of Ruby Gilman ~$1.15M THUR Previews

 

(0.582x) of Asteroid City ~$640k THUR Previews

 

Comps AVG: $716k

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville greater region 

 

MY BIG FAT GREEK WEDDING 3  

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-5

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
128	189	22768	0.83%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

15

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-5

 

(0.630x) of Strays ~$519k THUR Previews

 

(1.629x) of Ruby Gilman ~$1.18M THUR Previews

 

(0.592x) of Asteroid City ~$652k THUR Previews

 

Comps AVG: $784k

Edited September 2, 2023 by TheFlatLannister

[TheFlatLannister]

On 9/1/2023 at 5:01 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville greater region 

 

FRIDAY

 

TAYLOR SWIFT: THE ERA TOUR

 

T-42

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
195	8753	35312	24.8%

^{*numbers taken as of 4:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

905

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

5

 

SELLOUTS

11

 

COMPS

T-0

 

No good comps this far out so I'll just compare to T-0 since volume is already absurdly high 

 

(0.652x) of Barbie ~$13.7M FRIDAY 

(0.809x) of GOTG3~$14.16M FRIDAY

(0.783x) of ATSV~$13.59M FRIDAY

(1.664x) of Oppenheimer ~$17.48M FRIDAY

(1.307x) of TLM~$13.46M FRIDAY

 

COMP AVG: $14.48M

 

So this essentially means if sales were to stop today, OD would be at ~$15M+ (not accounting for ATP hike)

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville greater region 

 

FRIDAY

 

TAYLOR SWIFT: THE ERA TOUR

 

T-41

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
200	9649	36277	26.6%

^{*numbers taken as of 4:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

896

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

5

 

SELLOUTS

11

 

COMPS

T-0

 

No good comps this far out so I'll just compare to T-0 since volume is already absurdly high 

 

(0.719x) of Barbie ~$15.17M FRIDAY 

(0.892x) of GOTG3~$15.62M FRIDAY

(0.864x) of ATSV~$14.98M FRIDAY

(1.834x) of Oppenheimer ~$19.26M FRIDAY

(1.441x) of TLM~$14.84M FRIDAY

 

COMP AVG: $15.97M

Adjusted 30% up for ATP $20.76M

 

Sales still aren't slowing down at all

[Relevation]

3 hours ago, Relevation said:

OKAY here is my suggested path to $115M Sat

 

Using a sample of 9 theaters in my local market for Saturday, I count 110 showtimes total. This averages out to about 12 showtimes per theater. This sample has a much lower PLF percentage, topping out at just 7% PLF and 93% standard. So, if we again assume 15% of total tickets are for children and all of them are standard, then we get a ticket price split of 78% standard, 15% children, and 7% PLF if Saturday is filled to capacity. This split gets me an ATP for Saturday of $19.02. So again assuming an average auditorium size of 150 seats, theeeeeen 

 

150 seats * 12 showtimes per theater = 1800 admissions per theater 

1800 admissions * 19.02 ATP = $34,236 per theater average 

$34,236 * 4000 theaters = A capacity limit on Saturday of $136,944,000. So from there, The Eras Tour needs to hit a capacity percentage of 83.97% to hit my predicted $115M Sat. Which based on sales for the first two days seems doable imo. Will do Sunday later.

And finally to get a max capacity limit for the weekend overall, let’s show my path to $115M on Sunday

Although first, I did make a pretty big error calculating PLF percentage for Sat. I missed a lot of PLF level priced screens due to them being called different titles like “ICON-X” or “Monster Screen”. I did a full recount and got 23% PLF and 77% Standard, much closer to Friday’s split. So recalculating SAT’s ATP, I instead get an ATP of $19.36. Plugging that back into my math for SAT, I instead get a capacity limit on Saturday of 139,392,000.

 

Now as for Sunday, using my local sample of 8 theaters, I get 94 showtimes total for SUN. That’s an average showtime count of about 12 per day. If all of those are filled to capacity assuming 150 seat auditoriums, that’s 1800 admissions. The accurate PLF split for that day is 22% PLF and 78% standard. So using a ticket price split of 22% PLF, 15% child, and 63% standard, I get an ATP of $19.34. Now to do one last big math chain to get the full capacity limit for Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour’s opening weekend

 

150 seats per theater * 12 screenings per theater = 1800 admissions

1800 admissions * $19.34 ATP = $34,812 per theater average 

$34,812 PTA * 4000 theaters = $139,248,000 Sunday if all showings are filled to capacity. 
 

Soooo adding together the peak capacity numbers for all 3 days, I can project that if Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour can fill every showtime at all of its estimated 4000 theaters to capacity, then in theory it could score as high as $358,944,000 in its opening weekend which would juuuuuuust beat Endgame for the biggest opening in history. 
 

Ergo, all Taylor has to do is hit 99.5% capacity to beat Endgame! Perfectly doable imo /hj

 

AND to hit my projected $300M OW, The Eras Tour has to hit 83.6% capacity which I unironically think is doable.

[XXR vs XXR]

@Relevation I think your ATP's are low. Based on the ATP averages Keyser and Inception are showing for their respective tracking areas, it looks like it could be pushing $21 and since pricing is locked, there shouldn't be much variance as we move forward in the sales cycle. 

[Cap]

25 minutes ago, Relevation said:

Soooo adding together the peak capacity numbers for all 3 days, I can project that if Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour can fill every showtime at all of its estimated 4000 theaters to capacity, then in theory it could score as high as $358,944,000 in its opening weekend which would juuuuuuust beat Endgame for the biggest opening in history. 

The problem is this doesn’t gel with her cult iconography. 
 

It’s gonna be like:

131.3M

198.9M

313,001,989M

397.8M (1989x2)

 

got to make sure that her fans believe like the whole thing is predetermined, because, like she is just such a master mind.

 

 

[keysersoze123]

16 minutes ago, XXR's Eras Tour said:

@Relevation I think your ATP's are low. Based on the ATP averages Keyser and Inception are showing for their respective tracking areas, it looks like it could be pushing $21 and since pricing is locked, there shouldn't be much variance as we move forward in the sales cycle. 

I would discount 3% for every 10% of tickets being kids/senior tickets. If its 20% of tickets then its 6% discount.

[Relevation]

29 minutes ago, XXR's Eras Tour said:

@Relevation I think your ATP's are low. Based on the ATP averages Keyser and Inception are showing for their respective tracking areas, it looks like it could be pushing $21 and since pricing is locked, there shouldn't be much variance as we move forward in the sales cycle. 

The $21 listed price on ticketing sites does include sales tax, which I think is the reason that went up from the $19.89 reported ticket price. I don’t think sales tax actually counts when it comes to box office reporting, but I could be wrong.

[XXR vs XXR]

4 minutes ago, Relevation said:

The $21 listed price on ticketing sites does include sales tax, which I think is the reason that went up from the $19.89 reported ticket price. I don’t think sales tax actually counts when it comes to box office reporting, but I could be wrong.

 

$19.89 and $13.13 are minimums for standard shows, but several places are charging more and of course PLF is even higher. Like I mentioned earlier, I paid $25.89 before taxes/fees for my IMAX tickets.

[Relevation]

1 minute ago, Relevation said:

The $21 listed price on ticketing sites does include sales tax, which I think is the reason that went up from the $19.89 reported ticket price. I don’t think sales tax actually counts when it comes to box office reporting, but I could be wrong.

@XXR's Eras Tour BUT out of curiosity, if I instead did calculate standard at $21 tickets, bumped up my PLF estimation to $24 since I’m seeing a lot of PLF screens going that high in price, and I used Key’s suggestion of calculating 3% discount for every 10% child tickets, theeeen if I plug all of that into my math

 

FRI’s ATP would go up to $21.07

SAT’s ATP would go up to $21.34

and SUN’s ATP would go up to $21.31

 

Plugging those figures back into the math I already had, 

FRI’s ceiling would go up to $88,494,000

SAT’s ceiling would go up to $153,648,000

and SUN’s ceiling would go up to $153,432,000

Combining for an adjusted total ceiling for Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour of $395,547,000. 

 

NOW, all it has to do to beat Endgame is hit 90.28% capacity, and to hit my projected $300M OW, it has to hit a remarkably doable 75.84% capacity.

[XXR vs XXR]

50 minutes ago, Relevation said:

NOW, all it has to do to beat Endgame is hit 90.28% capacity, and to hit my projected $300M OW, it has to hit a remarkably doable 75.84% capacity.

 

Endgame's FSS was just over $297M sooooo..... 👀

 

Spoiler

It's not possible but it's fun to speculate.

 

Spoiler

Or am I underestimating her and IT IS POSSIBLE! 

 

Spoiler

Nah it's not possible.

 

Spoiler

 

 

 

 

 

 

[BoxOfficeFangrl]

2 hours ago, Relevation said:

And finally to get a max capacity limit for the weekend overall, let’s show my path to $115M on Sunday

Although first, I did make a pretty big error calculating PLF percentage for Sat. I missed a lot of PLF level priced screens due to them being called different titles like “ICON-X” or “Monster Screen”. I did a full recount and got 23% PLF and 77% Standard, much closer to Friday’s split. So recalculating SAT’s ATP, I instead get an ATP of $19.36. Plugging that back into my math for SAT, I instead get a capacity limit on Saturday of 139,392,000.

 

Now as for Sunday, using my local sample of 8 theaters, I get 94 showtimes total for SUN. That’s an average showtime count of about 12 per day. If all of those are filled to capacity assuming 150 seat auditoriums, that’s 1800 admissions. The accurate PLF split for that day is 22% PLF and 78% standard. So using a ticket price split of 22% PLF, 15% child, and 63% standard, I get an ATP of $19.34. Now to do one last big math chain to get the full capacity limit for Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour’s opening weekend

 

150 seats per theater * 12 screenings per theater = 1800 admissions

1800 admissions * $19.34 ATP = $34,812 per theater average 

$34,812 PTA * 4000 theaters = $139,248,000 Sunday if all showings are filled to capacity. 
 

Soooo adding together the peak capacity numbers for all 3 days, I can project that if Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour can fill every showtime at all of its estimated 4000 theaters to capacity, then in theory it could score as high as $358,944,000 in its opening weekend which would juuuuuuust beat Endgame for the biggest opening in history. 
 

Ergo, all Taylor has to do is hit 99.5% capacity to beat Endgame! Perfectly doable imo /hj

 

AND to hit my projected $300M OW, The Eras Tour has to hit 83.6% capacity which I unironically think is doable.

Just saying, the latest OW record has usually lasted 4-5 years at the most and the Eras movie will be released about 4.5 years after Endgame...