The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[SnokesLegs]

Aren’t people getting a teensy but carried away here with the “it’s taking down Endgame OW” takes? The pre-sales are undeniably impressive so far, but to come close to Endgame it has to cross over to people who aren’t fans of Swift, which I find hard to believe is going to happen to THAT extent.
 

I’m genuinely baffled by this woman’s popularity in the US and I’m very much not the target audience, but I’m happy for theatres who will get a much needed lifeline.

[Cooper Legion]

3 minutes ago, SnokesLegs said:

but to come close to Endgame it has to cross over to people who aren’t fans of Swift

Nope, not even close.

[vale9001]

10 minutes ago, SnokesLegs said:

Aren’t people getting a teensy but carried away here with the “it’s taking down Endgame OW” takes? The pre-sales are undeniably impressive so far, but to come close to Endgame it has to cross over to people who aren’t fans of Swift, which I find hard to believe is going to happen to THAT extent.
 

I’m genuinely baffled by this woman’s popularity in the US and I’m very much not the target audience, but I’m happy for theatres who will get a much needed lifeline.

 

 

But what if "the fans" are just 15M millions?. That's the point.

 

Anyways yes i don't get the sense to think in terms "if the movie will make sold out in EVERY screening of 4k theaters" It can beat end game. It won't make sold out in EVERY screenings it'll get, i mean any movie ever made It so yeah i don't get the point of such analysis at this point. 

[Relevation]

2 hours ago, Relevation said:

@XXR's Eras Tour BUT out of curiosity, if I instead did calculate standard at $21 tickets, bumped up my PLF estimation to $24 since I’m seeing a lot of PLF screens going that high in price, and I used Key’s suggestion of calculating 3% discount for every 10% child tickets, theeeen if I plug all of that into my math

 

FRI’s ATP would go up to $21.07

SAT’s ATP would go up to $21.34

and SUN’s ATP would go up to $21.31

 

Plugging those figures back into the math I already had, 

FRI’s ceiling would go up to $88,494,000

SAT’s ceiling would go up to $153,648,000

and SUN’s ceiling would go up to $153,432,000

Combining for an adjusted total ceiling for Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour of $395,547,000. 

 

NOW, all it has to do to beat Endgame is hit 90.28% capacity, and to hit my projected $300M OW, it has to hit a remarkably doable 75.84% capacity.

And as one last bit to satisfy my curiosity and see how close this actually can get to those lofty percentage numbers, I pulled some T-0 numbers from @Porthos’s tracking to see what other $150M+ openers (and Oppenheimer because it had a huge capacity crunch) had in terms of percentages. Here’s what I got:

What Taylor Swift needs to hit to beat Endgame - 90.28%

Avengers: Endgame - 87.76%

What Taylor Swift needs to hit to reach $300M OW - 75.84%
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker - 69.68%
Spider-Man: No Way Home - 64.89%
Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness - 45.68%
Oppenheimer - 37.52%
Barbie - 35.49%
Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour [SO FAR] - 34.27%
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever - 34.19%

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

28 minutes ago, SnokesLegs said:

Aren’t people getting a teensy but carried away here with the “it’s taking down Endgame OW” takes? The pre-sales are undeniably impressive so far, but to come close to Endgame it has to cross over to people who aren’t fans of Swift, which I find hard to believe is going to happen to THAT extent.
 

I’m genuinely baffled by this woman’s popularity in the US and I’m very much not the target audience, but I’m happy for theatres who will get a much needed lifeline.

I don’t think it’s going to beat Endgame (my current target is about $180M) but I just want to clarify that the film wouldn’t need to cross out of her fandom and fandom-adjacent family to do so. Based on available data, she averages about 21-22 million unique listeners each day across all platforms domestically. Over 50 million people tried to buy tickets to her domestic dates of her actual tour. Over 60 million people domestically listen to at least 1 song of hers a month.

 

She would “only” need to sell about 17 million tickets OW to dethrone Endgame. She has the fanbase to do it, if enough decide they’re interested in this particular endeavor.

[Relevation]

26 minutes ago, vale9001 said:

 

 

But what if "the fans" are just 15M millions?. That's the point.

 

Anyways yes i don't get the sense to think in terms "if the movie will make sold out in EVERY screening of 4k theaters" It can beat end game. It won't make sold out in EVERY screenings it'll get, i mean any movie ever made It so yeah i don't get the point of such analysis at this point. 

Ok obviously it won’t sell out everywhere, but what I think my analysis does is set a hard cap for how much it can make with all the ticket price and showtime shenanigans baked in, so that we can start genuinely tracking percentage. Because imo the current T-0 movie comps just aren’t that helpful.

[TheFlatLannister]

I'm not even sure the Era tour can beat NWH OW...I'm thinking $65/$80/$65 best case scenario. $357M+ just seems unrealistic considering it would have to average $120M for F/S/S

Edited September 3, 2023 by TheFlatLannister

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

It's important to remember that while ATP is much higher, it's also losing essentially a full day vs other major films. I'm more interested in the FSS numbers of major blockbusters as targets than including previews. From that perspective, I think it could go as high as #2 all-time. 

[expensiveho]

26 minutes ago, XXR's Eras Tour said:

She would “only” need to sell about 17 million tickets OW to dethrone Endgame. She has the fanbase to do it, if enough decide they’re interested in this particular endeavor.

This is so important. If taking down Endgame becomes an actual possibility and gets media coverage... her fans will 100% sure she takes it. 

 

I'd say she's on track to do 150m, but if the hype gets big enough for +250m...

[Madhuvan]

She has a 2.5 day compared to like 3.5 to even more in most cases so comparisons kinda flawed a bit

 

I am happy with anything over $100m if the 2nd weekend is strong as well and it finishes with $250-$300m that's a fantastic ROI 

[charlie Jatinder]

May be I will be wrong because who knows how this plays out but from my experience yall need to slow down. This isnt normal movie to have normal presales run. I won’t be surprised with ”just” $100-150M weekend.

[Nova]

She does not have anywhere near enough showtimes to even challenge End Games OW and I don’t think she will get them either. 

 

End Game really felt like it was playing at my theater 24 hours a day throughout the weekend. I don’t see that happening for Eras Tour. People will go watch End Game at 3AM. I don’t see that happening for Eras Tour.

 

*But for what it’s worth I did just check my local AMC and they added a bunch of show times for Saturday and Sunday (17 total). Right now first show time is 8:30AM with last one being 10:30PM. The biggest difference is the late showings as End Game had showings going late into the evening. So yea no way. 

 

But I’m fully on the over Barbie OW and could see something like $180M or so. 

 

Watch her open to 198.9M proving that she in fact made a deal with satan himself ☠️

 

Edited September 3, 2023 by Nova

[JustLurking]

1 minute ago, across the Jat verse said:

May be I will be wrong because who knows how this plays out but from my experience yall need to slow down. This isnt normal movie to have normal presales run. I won’t be surprised with ”just” $100-150M weekend.

This is my reasoning too, the presales run will be an extreme anomaly and won't play out like a film would whatsoever (why I went out of over Barbie club). I won't be shocked if it beats that, but I don't think it will beat out Endgame or anything.

[charlie Jatinder]

4 minutes ago, Nova said:

She does not have anywhere near enough showtimes to even challenge End Games OW and I don’t think she will get them either. 

If there is demand, there will be shows.

[Madhuvan]

19 minutes ago, across the Jat verse said:

If there is demand, there will be shows.

They are starting from evening of the Friday in the first place so showtimes will be less automatically 

[Bob Train]

I don't know if it's even possible to beat Endgame. Endgame had an extra day of shows due to previews, and many theaters massively extended their hours (some becoming essentially 24-hour!) because they knew it would be biggest OW ever. And it had insane amounts of showings because there was not much else to show at the time.

 

I think this will trend more like, well, a concert, than any movie. Which is to say, won't get walkups like GA friendly blockbusters do.

Edited September 3, 2023 by Bob Train

[VanillaSkies]

15 minutes ago, Bob Train said:

I don't know if it's even possible to beat Endgame. Endgame had an extra day of shows due to previews, and many theaters massively extended their hours (some becoming essentially 24-hour!) because they knew it would be biggest OW ever. And it had insane amounts of showings because there was not much else to show at the time.

 

I think this will trend more like, well, a concert, than any movie. Which is to say, won't get walkups like GA friendly blockbusters do.

 

not only that, but 3am and 4am shows were selling out. It was a cultural event with a major rush factor that we might never see again in our lifetimes. It was also pre-COVID. I just don’t think theatres are willing to operate 24/7 anymore. 

[keysersoze123]

23 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Taylor Swift Eras Tour  MTC1 Friday (Day 2 PS) - 447800/700162 9441882.00 3996 shows +48866

 

Very good Day 2.

Taylor Swift Eras Tour  MTC1 Friday (Day 3 PS) - 467140/719679 9864247.60 4164 shows +19340

 

Definitely slowed down but it has already sold big % of tickets that it needs growth in shows to see big increase. Its going to hit 10m probably tomorrow or day after. Insane numbers overall !!!

[charlie Jatinder]

5 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Taylor Swift Eras Tour  MTC1 Friday (Day 3 PS) - 467140/719679 9864247.60 4164 shows +19340

 

Definitely slowed down but it has already sold big % of tickets that it needs growth in shows to see big increase. Its going to hit 10m probably tomorrow or day after. Insane numbers overall !!!

MTC 1 ratio will probably be around 40% or so for this.

[keysersoze123]

5 minutes ago, across the Jat verse said:

MTC 1 ratio will probably be around 40% or so for this.

Why. ATP wise other MTC would benefit even more. MTC1 always will be 1st one off the block. Closer to release other TC will come to life. Show counts wise most of them are adding as many shows due to demand.