The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[Hilts]

23 hours ago, Hilts said:

 

 

My Big Fat Greek Wedding 3							OK
Thursday - showings starting 5pm
Day	Theatres	Showings	Sellouts	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold
T-9	18	37	0	5	41	4,136	0.99%
T-8	18	37	0	8	49	4,136	1.18%
T-7	18	37	0	1	50	4,136	1.21%
T-6	19	38	0	6	56	4,167	1.34%
T-5	19	38	0	4	60	4,167	1.44%
Comps
Strays					0.526x	=	$0.53m
Joy Ride					0.845x	=	$0.93m
Barbie					0.017x	=	$0.37m
Asteroid City					0.566x	=	$0.62m
No Hard Feelings					0.706x	=	$1.52m

 

 

The Nun II							OK
Thursday - showings starting 4pm
Day	Theatres	Showings	Sellouts	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold
T-7	22	83	0	61	61	16,223	0.38%
T-6	23	84	0	30	91	16,293	0.56%
T-5	23	84	0	10	101	16,293	0.62%

 

Comps
Insidious: The Red Door					0.808x	=	$4.04m
Talk To Me					2.196x	=	$2.73m
The Last Voyage Of The Demeter					2.806x	=	$2.10m
The Meg 2: The Trench					0.821x	=	$2.63m

 

You know it's a slow day when Strays and Demeter comps drop.

 

 

My Big Fat Greek Wedding 3							OK
Thursday - showings starting 5pm
Day	Theatres	Showings	Sellouts	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold
T-8	18	37	0	8	49	4,136	1.18%
T-7	18	37	0	1	50	4,136	1.21%
T-6	19	38	0	6	56	4,167	1.34%
T-5	19	38	0	4	60	4,167	1.44%
T-4	19	38	0	4	64	4,167	1.54%
Comps
Strays					0.512x	=	$0.56m
Joy Ride					0.771x	=	$0.85m
Barbie					0.016x	=	$0.35m
Asteroid City					0.577x	=	$0.63m
No Hard Feelings					0.615x	=	$1.32m

 

 

The Nun II							OK
Thursday - showings starting 4pm
Day	Theatres	Showings	Sellouts	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold
T-7	22	83	0	61	61	16,223	0.38%
T-6	23	84	0	30	91	16,293	0.56%
T-5	23	84	0	10	101	16,293	0.62%
T-4	23	84	0	5	106	16,293	0.65%

 

Comps
Insidious: The Red Door					0.620x	=	$3.10m
Talk To Me					2.038x	=	$2.54m
The Last Voyage Of The Demeter					2.585x	=	$1.94m
The Meg 2: The Trench					0.639x	=	$2.04m

 

 

Another slow day. Looking forward to these picking up soon (I hope).

 

[jeffthehat]

Assuming comps are unreliable, wouldn't the best way to predict Era's OW be to speculate on the final % of available seats sold? If MTC1 is already at 60+% at t-40, hard for me to see how it sells less than 50% nationwide on Fri. And if @Relevation's math is correct, that would put the floor for Friday at 45m... 

[DisposedData]

15 minutes ago, jeffthehat said:

Assuming comps are unreliable, wouldn't the best way to predict Era's OW be to speculate on the final % of available seats sold? If MTC1 is already at 60+% at t-40, hard for me to see how it sells less than 50% nationwide on Fri. And if @Relevation's math is correct, that would put the floor for Friday at 45m... 

This. I'm confused why people are throwing around 30m when that's already where it's at with T-0 comps. This has been very confusing to follow

 

[XXR & Friends]

@keysersoze123 When you did your last Barbie previews MTC1 run, how late in the evening was it? Feels like that may be a good final comp against Eras Tour OD if it was late enough, because there shouldn't have been much walkup after the run.

 

FWIW, Eras Tour is already 78% ahead of that number revenue wise (as of 15 hours ago). Barbie previews ended up being about $20.5M not including EA, so even if you discount TET by 15% for the currently heavy MTC1 skew that should still puts it at ~$30-32M already for Friday OD. 

[Nova]

I also don’t know if this matters but the tickets are non-refundable so I wouldn’t be surprised to see more people buy tickets closer to the date when plans can be made more definitively. 

 

Also means if someone buys a ticket but their plans change to a different date, they gotta buy two tickets now 

[TheFlatLannister]

On 8/31/2023 at 8:06 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

 

Saturday sales are also really strong

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
286	7151	53776	13.4%

 

SELLOUTS

3

 

0.911x of Friday sales.  

 

Well, this looks like it won't be crazy frontloaded in the OW at least...

Saturday sales 

ORLANDO-GAINSVILLE-DAYTONA 

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
353	9718	64203	15.1%

 

SELLOUTS

3

 

2015 seats sold in the past 4 days

67 Showings added

 

1.007x ahead of Friday sales.

  

Sales seem very spread out over the weekend. 

Edited September 3, 2023 by TheFlatLannister

[abracadabra1998]

On 8/31/2023 at 5:54 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Sooooooo I was doing my count for Taylor and thinking "huh I mean these are very good, but like nothing amazing why is BOT losing their minds over th..JABDUAHDADASDAUGEWYFIHDQ I WAS COUNTING THE WRONG DAY (the following Thursday).

 

 

Anyways, I'm gonna have to redo all of that, so I'll check back in later this evening. Meanwhile, here are some things you probably care about way less.

 

Minneapolis-St.Paul Area Previews:

 

My Big Fat Greek Wedding 3 (T-7):

Day: T-7	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 17 theaters	32	34	52	3501	1.49

 

Comps:

1.04x Strays (TOTAL): $1.14 Million

0.71x Joy Ride (TOTAL): $784k

 

Great jump from last update, next update will have No Hard Feelings as another comp.

 

The Nun II (T-7):

Day: T-7	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 17 theaters	62	51	51	11088	0.46

 

Comps:

0.65x Insidious: Red Door- $3.27 Million

 

Great start since it just went on sale (Insidious had been on sale for over a week at that point).

 

Minneapolis-St.Paul Area Previews:

 

My Big Fat Greek Wedding 3 (T-4):

Day: T-4	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 17 theaters	32	28	80	3501	2.29

 

Comps:

1.13x Strays (Total): $1.24 Million

0.72x Joy Ride (Total): $793k

0.85x No Hard Feelings (Just Thursday): $1.84 Million 

 

This keeps doing decently as of late, I'm confident in over $1 million previews. Low number of shows is a concern though

 

The Nun II (T-4):

Day: T-4	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 18 theaters	64	64	115	11328	1.02

 

Comps:

0.7x Insidious Red Door: $3.51 Million

1.06x Talk To Me (Total): $1.33 Million

1.92x Last Voyage of Demeter: $1.44 Million

 

Sales feel weirdly low for this big an IP here, but all these comps were on sale for twice as long as this so I'm not gonna worry until I see this week's jumps.

 

Tracking these two daily from now on, new T-Swizzle update tomorrow.

[TheFlatLannister]

23 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville greater region 

 

MY BIG FAT GREEK WEDDING 3  

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-5

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
128	189	22768	0.83%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

15

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-5

 

(0.630x) of Strays ~$519k THUR Previews

 

(1.629x) of Ruby Gilman ~$1.18M THUR Previews

 

(0.592x) of Asteroid City ~$652k THUR Previews

 

Comps AVG: $784k

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville greater region 

 

MY BIG FAT GREEK WEDDING 3  

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-4

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
128	199	22768	0.87%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

10

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-4

 

(0.642x) of Strays ~$530k THUR Previews

 

(1.645x) of Ruby Gilman ~$1.19M THUR Previews

 

(0.584x) of Asteroid City ~$642k THUR Previews

 

Comps AVG: $787k

 

Echoing what Katniss said earlier, this has been a rough few days. But, abracadabra's updates seem promising. My early prediction would be $700K

[TheFlatLannister]

23 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville greater region 

The Nun II

 

Thursday Previews 

T-5

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
156	489	27896	1.8%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

64

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-5

 

(1.329x) of Insidious: The Red Door ~$6.64M THUR Previews

 

(2.601x) of Talk to me ~$3.24M THUR Previews

 

(2.374x) of Boogeyman ~$2.61M THUR Previews

 

(1.925x) of Meg 2 ~$6.16M THUR Previews

 

Comps AVG: $4.66M

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville greater region 

The Nun II

 

Thursday Previews 

T-4

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
156	547	27896	2.0%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

58

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-4

 

(1.315x) of Insidious: The Red Door ~$6.57M THUR Previews

 

(2.681x) of Talk to me ~$3.34M THUR Previews

 

(1.996x) of Boogeyman ~$2.20M THUR Previews

 

(1.866x) of Meg 2 ~$5.97M THUR Previews

 

Comps AVG: $4.52M

[Relevation]

2 hours ago, jeffthehat said:

Assuming comps are unreliable, wouldn't the best way to predict Era's OW be to speculate on the final % of available seats sold? If MTC1 is already at 60+% at t-40, hard for me to see how it sells less than 50% nationwide on Fri. And if @Relevation's math is correct, that would put the floor for Friday at 45m... 

That’s partially why I ran that analysis. I wanted to get a clear idea of how high the total capacity for TET was so that we can start meaningfully tracking percentage. 

[TheFlatLannister]

On 9/2/2023 at 6:32 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville greater region 

 

FRIDAY

 

TAYLOR SWIFT: THE ERA TOUR

 

T-41

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
200	9649	36277	26.6%

^{*numbers taken as of 4:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

896

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

5

 

SELLOUTS

11

 

COMPS

T-0

 

No good comps this far out so I'll just compare to T-0 since volume is already absurdly high 

 

(0.719x) of Barbie ~$15.17M FRIDAY 

(0.892x) of GOTG3~$15.62M FRIDAY

(0.864x) of ATSV~$14.98M FRIDAY

(1.834x) of Oppenheimer ~$19.26M FRIDAY

(1.441x) of TLM~$14.84M FRIDAY

 

COMP AVG: $15.97M

Adjusted 30% up for ATP $20.76M

 

Sales still aren't slowing down at all

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville greater region 

 

FRIDAY

 

TAYLOR SWIFT: THE ERA TOUR

 

T-40

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
202	9877	36394	27.1%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

228

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

2

 

SELLOUTS

13

 

COMPS

T-0

 

No good comps this far out so I'll just compare to T-0 since volume is already absurdly high 

previews: 

(0.736x) of Barbie ~$15.52M FRIDAY 

(0.913x) of GOTG3~$15.99M FRIDAY

(0.884x) of ATSV~$15.34M FRIDAY

(1.878x) of Oppenheimer ~$19.72M FRIDAY

(1.475x) of TLM~$15.19M FRIDAY

 

COMP AVG: $16.35M

Adjusted 30% up for ATP $21.26M

 

Finally slowed down

Edited September 3, 2023 by TheFlatLannister

[XXR & Friends]

@TheFlatLannister What do the TET OD comps look like against those same films previews? 

[HummingLemon]

So it's clear all of the Taylor fans booked their tickets instantly and now it's slowing down. 

[TheFlatLannister]

21 minutes ago, XXR's Eras Tour said:

@TheFlatLannister What do the TET OD comps look like against those same films previews? 

Those are the films previews. OD to previews comp isn’t ideal but I didn’t track those films for Friday. 
 

I should probably edit the format to make that more clear

Edited September 3, 2023 by TheFlatLannister

[TheFlatLannister]

13 minutes ago, HummingLemon said:

So it's clear all of the Taylor fans booked their tickets instantly and now it's slowing down. 

I would say yes, but let’s wait a few more days to see how pace is

[XXR & Friends]

11 minutes ago, HummingLemon said:

So it's clear all of the Taylor fans booked their tickets instantly and now it's slowing down. 

As expected. If there's no traditional marketing campaign, there will be a (relatively) major lull in ticket sales unless Taylor herself goes on the promotional train. Given her history, that typical means 1 post a week at most and as I previously mentioned she may not even care too much about promoting this movie with 1989 TV coming out 2 weeks later.

[XXR & Friends]

3 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Those are the films previews. OD to previews comp isn’t ideal but I didn’t track those films for Friday. 
 

I should probably edit the format to make that more clear

 

Ahh ok. The "FRIDAY" next to the numbers made me thinking you were comping against their true OD. 

[vafrow]

On 9/1/2023 at 9:45 AM, vafrow said:

 

The Nun 2, Thursday previews T-7, southern Ontario

 

Total sales:  87

New Sales: 63

Growth from Wednesday: 263%

Theatre Count:  48

Showtimes:  115

Tickets per showtime: 0.757

Coverage Radius: 143km

Estimated population coverage: 8-10M

Theatres Tracked: MTC4

 

Comps

0.486x Equalizer 3 for $1.8M

0.274x Blue Beetle for $0.9M

 

Not great comps, but, wanted to give something.

 

The Nun 2, Thursday previews T-4, southern Ontario

 

Total sales:  189

New Sales: 102

Growth from Friday morning: 117%

Theatre Count:  48

Showtimes:  115

Tickets per showtime: 1.643

Coverage Radius: 143km

Estimated population coverage: 8-10M

Theatres Tracked: MTC4

 

Comps

0.616x Equalizer 3 for $2.3M

0.383x Blue Beetle for $1.3M

 

Sales grow at a decent pace. Further behind the comps, but, given that sales only opened at T-9, I think it can continue to build. I haven't tracked a lot of horror though, so hard to get a feel on the patterns in market.

[keysersoze123]

3 hours ago, XXR's Eras Tour said:

@keysersoze123 When you did your last Barbie previews MTC1 run, how late in the evening was it? Feels like that may be a good final comp against Eras Tour OD if it was late enough, because there shouldn't have been much walkup after the run.

 

FWIW, Eras Tour is already 78% ahead of that number revenue wise (as of 15 hours ago). Barbie previews ended up being about $20.5M not including EA, so even if you discount TET by 15% for the currently heavy MTC1 skew that should still puts it at ~$30-32M already for Friday OD. 

I got data at 845PM(357467/702711 5520636.35 4939 shows).Run took roughly around 40 minutes. in terms of $ value Eras is already 80% more. 

[misterpepp]

There's a Jake Johnson/Lonely Island comedy movie that was originally set for a Hulu debut called Self Reliance that seems like it'll be going to theaters in some capacity now, potentially in conjunction with Neon? A theatrical-exclusive trailer is playing before Bottoms at some locations.