The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[Inceptionzq]

On 9/3/2023 at 1:00 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Taylor Swift Eras Tour Alamo Drafthouse

T-40 Friday

90 Showings

6766

+654

14797

ATP:

22.70

0.530	Doctor Strange MoM Thurs Day 3	19.09M
0.311	NWH Thurs Day 2	15.57M
	Adjusted Doctor Strange MoM Thurs Day 3	28.43M
	Adjusted NWH Thurs Day 2	23.19M

 

T-41 Saturday

146 Showings

7239

+1042

23527

ATP:

22.23

0.754	Doctor Strange MoM Fri Day 3	41.26M
0.428	NWH Fri Day 2	30.77M
	Adjusted Doctor Strange MoM Fri Day 3	60.03M
	Adjusted NWH Fri Day 2	44.76M

 

T-42 Sunday

134 Showings

5152

+740

21581

ATP:

22.18

0.554	Doctor Strange MoM Sat Day 3	32.03M
0.365	NWH Sat Day 2	27.01M
	Adjusted Doctor Strange MoM Sat Day 3	48.19M
	Adjusted NWH Sat Day 2	40.64M

Taylor Swift Eras Tour Alamo Drafthouse

T-39 Friday

90 Showings

7426

+660

14797

ATP:

22.64

0.229	Doctor Strange MoM Thurs T-0	8.26M
0.191	NWH Thurs T-0	9.57M
	Adjusted Doctor Strange MoM Thurs T-0	12.43M
	Adjusted NWH Thurs T-0	14.40M

 

T-40 Saturday

146 Showings

8253

+1014

23526

ATP:

22.22

0.222	Doctor Strange MoM Fri T-0	12.14M
0.193	NWH Fri T-0	13.92M
	Adjusted Doctor Strange MoM Fri T-0	18.42M
	Adjusted NWH Fri T-0	21.12M

 

T-41 Sunday

134 Showings

5941

+789

21581

ATP:

22.09

0.135	Doctor Strange MoM Sat T-0	7.81M
0.118	NWH Sat T-0	8.73M
	Adjusted Doctor Strange MoM Sat T-0	12.15M
	Adjusted NWH Sat T-0	13.60M

[Inceptionzq]

On 9/3/2023 at 1:01 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Taylor Swift Eras Tour Emagine Entertainment

T-40 Friday

108 Showings

6266

+476

17480

1.427

Barbie T-7 Thursday

31.83M

 

T-41 Saturday

233 Showings

3204

+276

36188

0.523

Barbie T-8 Friday

25.02M

 

T-42 Sunday

224 Showings

1831

+250

35463

0.606

Barbie T-9 Saturday

26.49M

Taylor Swift Eras Tour Emagine Entertainment

T-39 Friday

114 Showings

6793

+527

18262

0.473

Barbie T-0 Thursday

10.55M

 

T-40 Saturday

234 Showings

3891

+687

36951

0.151

Barbie T-0 Friday

7.23M

 

T-41 Sunday

224 Showings

2114

+283

35471

0.089

Barbie T-0 Saturday

3.90M

[Porthos]

 

 

@BoxOfficeFangrl

 

(technically still up at Fandango, but as one can see, purchase won't go through)

[abracadabra1998]

On 9/3/2023 at 4:29 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minneapolis-St.Paul Area Previews:

 

My Big Fat Greek Wedding 3 (T-4):

Day: T-4	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 17 theaters	32	28	80	3501	2.29

 

Comps:

1.13x Strays (Total): $1.24 Million

0.72x Joy Ride (Total): $793k

0.85x No Hard Feelings (Just Thursday): $1.84 Million 

 

This keeps doing decently as of late, I'm confident in over $1 million previews. Low number of shows is a concern though

 

The Nun II (T-4):

Day: T-4	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 18 theaters	64	64	115	11328	1.02

 

Comps:

0.7x Insidious Red Door: $3.51 Million

1.06x Talk To Me (Total): $1.33 Million

1.92x Last Voyage of Demeter: $1.44 Million

 

Sales feel weirdly low for this big an IP here, but all these comps were on sale for twice as long as this so I'm not gonna worry until I see this week's jumps.

 

Tracking these two daily from now on, new T-Swizzle update tomorrow.

 

Minneapolis-St.Paul Area Previews:

 

My Big Fat Greek Wedding 3 (T-3):

Day: T-3	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 17 theaters	32	0	80	3501	2.29

 

Nope, no typo. This sold two singular tickets in two theaters, but two were refunded in another ticket, for a grand total of zero. 

 

Comps:

0.82x Strays (Total): $907k

0.64x Joy Ride (Total): $704k

0.58x No Hard Feelings (Just Thursday): $1.25 Million 

 

I learned my lesson about making definitive statement about releases that sell such little tickets that comps can quickly change... not so sure about $1 million anymore. Tracking closer to what katniss and FlatLanister show.

 

The Nun II (T-3):

Day: T-3	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 18 theaters	64	26	141	11328	1.24

 

Comps:

0.73x Insidious Red Door: $3.66 Million

1.04x Talk To Me (Total): $1.29 Million

2.04x Last Voyage of Demeter: $1.53 Million

 

Hoping for better jumps

[abracadabra1998]

On 9/1/2023 at 2:04 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Taylor Swift: Eras Tour (T-42):

Day: T-42	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 16 theaters	91	2308	8115	15525	52.27

 

Yesterday, I wondered if non-MTC1 chains would show the same growth... well here's a stat for you:

- % of Yesterday's new sales that were MTC1: 89%

- % of today's new sales that were MTC1: 43%

 

Now that's not exactly surprising, given capacity issues (even though 3 of the 5 MTC1 theaters I track have already added more shows... and those are mostly near sell outs already). But the volume of the other chains is pleasantly surprising, and I think it quiets some of the doubts I had yesterday. This thing is a MONSTER.

 

Anyways, here are some (mostly irrelevant) comps, again last day I tracked each of them:

 

0.92x Barbie w/ EA at T-1: $20.4 Million

1.68x Oppenheimer at T-1: $17.65 Million

 

Yep, almost at the number of sales Barbie had one day before it came out. 

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Taylor Swift: Eras Tour (T-39):

Day: T-39	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 20 theaters	114	2098	10213	19546	52.25

 

Same day as Hilts, this has become the largest thing I've ever tracked... with over a month to go.

 

About the MTC1 % of new sales:

- T-43 update: 89% of new sales

- T-42 update: 43% of new sales

- T-39 update: 37% of new sales

 

Other chains are keeping up!

 

Comps (last day I tracked each):

1.15x Barbie w/ EA at T-1: $25.6 Million

2.11x Oppenheimer at T-1: $22.1 Million

[divesyn]

23 minutes ago, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minneapolis-St.Paul Area Previews:

 

My Big Fat Greek Wedding 3 (T-3):

Day: T-3	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 17 theaters	32	0	80	3501	2.29

 

Nope, no typo. This sold two singular tickets in two theaters, but two were refunded in another ticket, for a grand total of zero. 

 

Comps:

0.82x Strays (Total): $907k

0.64x Joy Ride (Total): $704k

0.58x No Hard Feelings (Just Thursday): $1.25 Million 

 

I learned my lesson about making definitive statement about releases that sell such little tickets that comps can quickly change... not so sure about $1 million anymore. Tracking closer to what katniss and FlatLanister show.

 

The Nun II (T-3):

Day: T-3	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 18 theaters	64	26	141	11328	1.24

 

Comps:

0.73x Insidious Red Door: $3.66 Million

1.04x Talk To Me (Total): $1.29 Million

2.04x Last Voyage of Demeter: $1.53 Million

 

Hoping for better jumps

i've been wondering if greek wedding could do better FSS

i mean, the 2nd did 17m with 1m previews per the numbers

Edited September 4, 2023 by divesyn

[BoxOfficeFangrl]

29 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

 

@BoxOfficeFangrl

 

(technically still up at Fandango, but as one can see, purchase won't go through)

It figures: if there were going to be early sneaks (which they're not), they would have been at AMC.

 

Imagine if this snafu had happened on the first day of sales and not Labor Day weekend...

Edited September 4, 2023 by BoxOfficeFangrl

[abracadabra1998]

49 minutes ago, divesyn said:

i've been wondering if greek wedding could do better FSS

i mean, the 2nd did 17m with 1m previews per the numbers

Sure, I think the ratio could be better than usual. Most theaters just have two showtimes on Thursday which is pretty low. Just don’t expect those types of numbers because movies are more preview frontloaded now. $750k on Thursday would probably mean around $6 million for the weekend, imo

[Eric Prime]

Quorum Updates

Expend4bles T-18: 37.67% Awareness

The Creator T-25: 16.7% Awareness

Saw X T-25: 42.4% Awareness

The Bikeriders T-88: 10.45% Awareness

Ferrari T-112: 18.26% Awareness

 

My Big Fat Greek Wedding 3 T-4: 46.34% Awareness

Final Awareness: 86% chance of 10M, 59% chance of 20M

Low Awareness: 80% chance of 10M, 20% chance of 20M

 

The Nun II T-4: 52.11% Awareness

Final Awareness: 100% chance of 10M, 90% chance of 20M, 70% chance of 30M, 40% chance of 40M, 30% chance of 50M

Horror Awareness: 100% chance of 30M

 

A Haunting in Venice T-11: 29.98% Awareness

Final Awareness: 33% chance of 10M, 2% chance of 20M

Medium Awareness: 38% chance of 10M

 

The Exorcist: Believer T-32: 39.89% Awareness

T-30 Awareness: 87% chance of 10M, 61% chance of 20M, 43% chance of 30M

Horror Awareness: 100% chance of 10M, 80% chance of 20M, 60% chance of 30M

 

Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour T-39: 37.95% Awareness

T-30 Awareness: 87% chance of 10M, 61% chance of 20M, 43% chance of 30M

Low Awareness: 100% chance of 10M

[cowboylikeme]

The next big boost would be when she attend vma, she has 11 nominations. 🏆

[keysersoze123]

2 minutes ago, Eric McCall said:

Quorum Updates

 

Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour T-39: 37.95% Awareness

T-30 Awareness: 87% chance of 10M, 61% chance of 20M, 43% chance of 30M

Low Awareness: 100% chance of 10M

[emoviefan]

30 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Yeah this is why the Quorom should not be taken seriously in any way. 

[charlie Jatinder]

Yeah Quorum is useless for fan driven films like MCU and even higher degree Era tour. However, wonder if we can use this for sense of whether something will be presales heavy or do well with GA too. @keysersoze123 @Legion Again

[TheFlatLannister]

On 9/3/2023 at 5:48 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville greater region 

 

MY BIG FAT GREEK WEDDING 3  

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-4

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
128	199	22768	0.87%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

10

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-4

 

(0.642x) of Strays ~$530k THUR Previews

 

(1.645x) of Ruby Gilman ~$1.19M THUR Previews

 

(0.584x) of Asteroid City ~$642k THUR Previews

 

Comps AVG: $787k

 

Echoing what Katniss said earlier, this has been a rough few days. But, abracadabra's updates seem promising. My early prediction would be $700K

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville greater region 

 

MY BIG FAT GREEK WEDDING 3  

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-3

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
131	228	23286	0.98%

^{*numbers taken as of 9:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

29

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

3

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-3

 

(0.704x) of Strays ~$581k THUR Previews

 

(1.541x) of Ruby Gilman ~$1.12M THUR Previews

 

(0.597x) of Asteroid City ~$657k THUR Previews

 

Comps AVG: $786k

 

Staying consistently around $700K

[TheFlatLannister]

On 9/3/2023 at 5:58 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville greater region 

The Nun II

 

Thursday Previews 

T-4

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
156	547	27896	2.0%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

58

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-4

 

(1.315x) of Insidious: The Red Door ~$6.57M THUR Previews

 

(2.681x) of Talk to me ~$3.34M THUR Previews

 

(1.996x) of Boogeyman ~$2.20M THUR Previews

 

(1.866x) of Meg 2 ~$5.97M THUR Previews

 

Comps AVG: $4.52M

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville greater region 

The Nun II

 

Thursday Previews 

T-3

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
167	614	29964	2.1%

^{*numbers taken as of 9:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

67

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

11

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-3

 

(1.269x) of Insidious: The Red Door ~$6.34M THUR Previews

 

(2.856x) of Talk to me ~$3.56M THUR Previews

 

(2.013x) of Boogeyman ~$2.21M THUR Previews

 

(1.663x) of Meg 2 ~$5.32M THUR Previews

 

Comps AVG: $4.36M

[TheFlatLannister]

On 9/3/2023 at 6:46 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville greater region 

 

FRIDAY

 

TAYLOR SWIFT: THE ERA TOUR

 

T-40

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
202	9877	36394	27.1%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

228

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

2

 

SELLOUTS

13

 

COMPS

T-0

 

No good comps this far out so I'll just compare to T-0 since volume is already absurdly high 

previews: 

(0.736x) of Barbie ~$15.52M FRIDAY 

(0.913x) of GOTG3~$15.99M FRIDAY

(0.884x) of ATSV~$15.34M FRIDAY

(1.878x) of Oppenheimer ~$19.72M FRIDAY

(1.475x) of TLM~$15.19M FRIDAY

 

COMP AVG: $16.35M

Adjusted 30% up for ATP $21.26M

 

Finally slowed down

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville greater region 

 

FRIDAY

 

TAYLOR SWIFT: THE ERA TOUR

 

T-39

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
202	10444	36394	28.7%

^{*numbers taken as of 9:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

567

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

16

 

COMPS

T-0

 

No good comps this far out so I'll just compare to T-0 since volume is already absurdly high 

previews: 

(0.778x) of Barbie ~$16.42M FRIDAY for TET

(0.966x) of GOTG3~$16.90M FRIDAY for TET

(0.935x) of ATSV~$16.22M FRIDAY for TET

(1.559x) of TLM~$16.06M FRIDAY for TET

 

COMP AVG: $16.4M

Adjusted 30% up for ATP $21.32M

[Unfitclock]

@abracadabra1998 ticket to paradise did 900,000 in true Thursday previews and went on to do 16 million for the weekend 

[VanillaSkies]

1 hour ago, cowboylikeme said:

The next big boost would be when she attend vma, she has 11 nominations. 🏆

especially since one of them is tour of the summer. If the Eras Tour wins that one, I could definitely see a bump in sales. 

[keysersoze123]

2 hours ago, across the Jat verse said:

Yeah Quorum is useless for fan driven films like MCU and even higher degree Era tour. However, wonder if we can use this for sense of whether something will be presales heavy or do well with GA too. @keysersoze123 @Legion Again

There are many more swifties than the capacity. This is not even marketed that much. If Swift decides to push really hard i am expecting this to keep going up. While it will be presale heavy(DUH), ceiling is still very high. Let us wait closer to release to see how big the demand is.

[ChipDerby]

2 hours ago, across the Jat verse said:

Yeah Quorum is useless for fan driven films like MCU and even higher degree Era tour. However, wonder if we can use this for sense of whether something will be presales heavy or do well with GA too. @keysersoze123 @Legion Again

It can be presales heavy and sell out the entire weekend