The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[Porthos]

23 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Taylor Swift | The Eras Tour Greater Sacramento Area Opening Night Seat Report:

T-26 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	138	11051	18609	7558	40.61%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

29

 

T-26 Comps:

	%		Sold T-26	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Unadj  Comp	Ad-hoc Comp
MoM	93.23		285	8107		0/329	32809/40916	19.81%		21117	35.79%		33.56m	48.67m
BP2	137.47		102	5498		1/294	31521/37019	14.85%		16800	44.99%		38.49m	55.81m
AM3	214.23		107	3528		0/235	29016/32544	10.84%		10475	72.15%		37.49m	54.36m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of The Era Tour's current tickets sold versus that final number.

AD-HOC COMP NOTE: "Ad-hoc Comp" is the normal comp multiplied by 1.45x (a 45% increase), which is what I am using for now to account for the difference in ATP between TET and all other films.

 

Regal:     2226/6150  [36.20% sold]

 

====

 

Back down to Earth today.  So it goes...*

* Vonnegut ref, not Swift, ftr.

 

Taylor Swift | The Eras Tour Greater Sacramento Area Opening Night Seat Report:

T-25 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	139	11148	18739	7591	40.51%

 

Total Showings Added Today	1
Total Seats Added Today	130
Total Seats Sold Today	33

 

T-25 Comps:

	%		Sold T-25	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Unadj  Comp	Ad-hoc Comp
MoM	91.12		224	8331		0/329	32585/40916	20.36%		21117	35.95%		32.80m	47.56m
BP2	135.10		121	5619		1/294	31400/37019	15.18%		16800	45.18%		37.83m	54.85m
AM3	209.41		97	3625		0/235	28901/32526	11.14%		10475	72.47%		36.65m	53.14m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of The Era Tour's current tickets sold versus that final number.

AD-HOC COMP NOTE: "Ad-hoc Comp" is the normal comp multiplied by 1.45x (a 45% increase), which is what I am using for now to account for the difference in ATP between TET and all other films.

 

Regal:     2232/6150  [36.29% sold]

[vafrow]

22 hours ago, vafrow said:

 

Taylor Swift Eras Tour, Opening Friday,southern Ontario, T-26 (early am pull)

 

Total sales:  16,144

New Sales: 99 

Growth from yesterday 0.6%

Matinee Sales on Hold: 5855 across 121 showtimes 

Theatre Count:  50

Showtimes:  93

Tickets per showtime: 173.6

Coverage Radius: 143km

Estimated population coverage: 8-10M

Theatres Tracked:  MTC4

 

Okay day. Better than yesterday.

 

I don't think I'll be able to really bring in any comps for this. All my tracking on big movies only tracked at an individual theatre, which won't be relevant here. 

 

i can still track growth though, to see where this is heading. As M37 indicated, we're at the bottom of the U right now, so it should be slow at this point. And being a non traditional release and promotion cycle, it's hard to forecast when things will ramp up.

 

Taylor Swift Eras Tour, Opening Friday,southern Ontario, T-25 (early am pull)

 

Total sales:  16,208

New Sales: 64

Growth from yesterday 0.4%

Matinee Sales on Hold: 5855 across 121 showtimes 

Theatre Count:  50

Showtimes:  93

Tickets per showtime: 174.3

Coverage Radius: 143km

Estimated population coverage: 8-10M

Theatres Tracked:  MTC4

 

New sales among the lowest daily updates at just 0.4%. I know we're in the low end of the U, but it's now been a week of consistently being below 1% growth, and averaging around 0.5% growth. This is a pretty dry stretch.

[vafrow]

8 hours ago, Chrysaor said:

I mean I don't think it's going to hit *that* high either, but to be fair everything about this "movie" is unprecedented. Despite the immensely dedicated effort of numerous people on here, we're really just grasping in the dark with this one.

 

We're 2.5 weeks into a six week sale period and are now at the stage where there's some reasonable comps. We know it's losing pace against those comps as well, which means it needs to accelerate just to maintain pace.

 

And while we don't know what marketing might come down the pipe, at this stage, it's becoming more and more likely that Swift is going to rely on her direct social media channels and not a traditional campaign. A scenario of a large scale general audience targeted campaign seems increasingly an outlier scenario.

 

We still have a wide enough range of scenarios right now, but I don't think we're fumbling in the dark at this stage.

[stripe]

13 hours ago, CJohn said:

The rest of September screams disaster. Expand4bles is a 7-8M OW, Dumb Money is a 3-4M OW, Saw X is maybe a 10M OW and The Creator probably does around 10M as well. Paw Patrol should be the best with 12-13M. Hollywood needs a complete reboot because streaming has killed them.

 

Yeah, poor Hollywood... Oh, wait, we just had a Summer almost in line with prepandemic levels with half the movies in theaters.

Problem with September/October is a weaker schedule than expected due to a strike that also limits campaigns. Still, Expend4bles can very well open north of 10M and last weekend of September has a potential breakout (The Creator) and another two 10M+ openers.

September agreggated gross will be around 475M, that's 150M over September 2022.

 

Apocalypse aborted

[vale9001]

8 minutes ago, vafrow said:

 

We're 2.5 weeks into a six week sale period and are now at the stage where there's some reasonable comps. We know it's losing pace against those comps as well, which means it needs to accelerate just to maintain pace.

 

And while we don't know what marketing might come down the pipe, at this stage, it's becoming more and more likely that Swift is going to rely on her direct social media channels and not a traditional campaign. A scenario of a large scale general audience targeted campaign seems increasingly an outlier scenario.

 

We still have a wide enough range of scenarios right now, but I don't think we're fumbling in the dark at this stage.

 

She has a new album coming 10 days after the movie so i think She will promote the film while promoting both. If i'm not wrong america doesn't have talk shows right now because of the strike?. So She can't make this kind of promo but she can make covers + interviews on magazines and i think she will make everything she can. 

Edited September 19, 2023 by vale9001

[vafrow]

38 minutes ago, vale9001 said:

 

She has a new album coming 10 days after the movie so i think She will promote the film while promoting both. If i'm not wrong america doesn't have talk shows right now because of the strike?. So She can't make this kind of promo but she can make covers + interviews on magazines and i think she will make everything she can. 

There's definitely going to be some promotion, likely more the organic type as you've outlined. But, we saw with the MTV performance and subsequent ad, these aren't huge needle movers.

 

Taylor knows more about marketing than anyone posting on a box office message board, so you don't want to ever underestimate her, but when we're tracking at low $50Ms and declining, you can probably safely assume a wild upswing isn't going to materialize without a big ad campaigns.

 

And before any perception that I'm taking a negative slant on this in any way, Swift forgoing a traditional campaign and the studio middleman is going to see her pocket the $80-100M that would otherwise be spent, and Swift is potentially going to make in the same range as Tom Cruise did off Top Gun Maverick, even if this hits lower end of projections just off the domestic release.

[CJohn]

1 hour ago, stripe said:

 

Yeah, poor Hollywood... Oh, wait, we just had a Summer almost in line with prepandemic levels with half the movies in theaters.

Problem with September/October is a weaker schedule than expected due to a strike that also limits campaigns. Still, Expend4bles can very well open north of 10M and last weekend of September has a potential breakout (The Creator) and another two 10M+ openers.

September agreggated gross will be around 475M, that's 150M over September 2022.

 

Apocalypse aborted

This is atrocious.

[Taylor]

Not sure if anyone has mentioned this idea yet, but I wouldn't be surprised if she swaps out the surprise songs in her acoustic set for each weekend of shows to encourage repeat viewings. 

 

i.e. Weekend one shows have Maroon and I Can See You, Weekend two shows have Our Song and You Are In Love, etc.

[vale9001]

44 minutes ago, vafrow said:

There's definitely going to be some promotion, likely more the organic type as you've outlined. But, we saw with the MTV performance and subsequent ad, these aren't huge needle movers.

 

Taylor knows more about marketing than anyone posting on a box office message board, so you don't want to ever underestimate her, but when we're tracking at low $50Ms and declining, you can probably safely assume a wild upswing isn't going to materialize without a big ad campaigns.

 

And before any perception that I'm taking a negative slant on this in any way, Swift forgoing a traditional campaign and the studio middleman is going to see her pocket the $80-100M that would otherwise be spent, and Swift is potentially going to make in the same range as Tom Cruise did off Top Gun Maverick, even if this hits lower end of projections just off the domestic release.

 

Honestly i don't see anything strange. I don't know why this should sell very well daily 25 days before the release without any promotion. What make not sense was the prediction this could have sell as a spider man movie for all the 45 days before release as someone seemed to believe.

 

Everything about It seems very predictable. Very huge Sales the first days (even stronger than spiderm man). Then soft Sales until the very end when promotion will be strong and more broadest. 

It's not opening with spider man numbers but also It's not "all here" but Sales will grew up again near the release. Here we went from 200-300M First weekend predictions to now less than 100m.

I think both predictions are wrong and, as imo was predictable since the announcement, this will be just at the halfway of It. So opening in the 120-130M range. 

 

 

[jeffthehat]

On 9/17/2023 at 10:31 AM, jeffthehat said:

 

Eras Malco Theaters T-26

 

Theater count - 24

Show count - 104

Seats sold - 5352

Total seats - 17486

% sold - 30.6%

New sales - 42 (+0.8%)

3-day average of new sales - 42.33 tickets/day

 

Eras Malco Theaters T-24

 

Theater count - 24

Show count - 104

Seats sold - 5399

Total seats - 17486

% sold - 30.9%

New sales - 47 (+0.9%)

3-day average of new sales - 29.7 tickets/day

 

Growing at a snail's pace now. But not surprising given the lack of promotion. I went to one of these theaters on Sunday and didn't see a single poster for it. 

 

Also, what's the best estimate of where OW presales stand? Deadline was cryptic in the last update. My sample is up 19% from T-37 to now (missing the first week when growth was highest). And I think Porthos is up ~45% since first day. If first day sales were $50m, should be close to $70m... but that seems high

 

[vale9001]

40 minutes ago, jeffthehat said:

 

Eras Malco Theaters T-24

 

Theater count - 24

Show count - 104

Seats sold - 5399

Total seats - 17486

% sold - 30.9%

New sales - 47 (+0.9%)

3-day average of new sales - 29.7 tickets/day

 

Growing at a snail's pace now. But not surprising given the lack of promotion. I went to one of these theaters on Sunday and didn't see a single poster for it. 

 

Also, what's the best estimate of where OW presales stand? Deadline was cryptic in the last update. My sample is up 19% from T-37 to now (missing the first week when growth was highest). And I think Porthos is up ~45% since first day. If first day sales were $50m, should be close to $70m... but that seems high

 

 

Pre Sales of 65M+ 5 days ago from deadline. It's not clear if for the First weekend or if they meant total sales. 

[jeffthehat]

50 minutes ago, vale9001 said:

 

Pre Sales of 65M+ 5 days ago from deadline. It's not clear if for the First weekend or if they meant total sales. 

 

I suspect it's first weekend. I'm getting a similar # when I try to extrapolate from the data here. E.g., here's what I'm getting for Friday: 

 

19000 shows

45% sold out

165 seats per screen

$20 ATP

 

That gives ~$28m Friday. If Sat is -10% Fri and Sun is -30% of Sat, that puts OW presales around $70m. 

 

Might be assuming more shows than there are, but Katniss showed ~16k shows like a couple weeks ago, and I think they're missing some theaters. They've also added some shows since, I think. 

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

It’s funny/ironic to consider that as big as this film is for the theater business and how much interest its numbers have in our circles, it’s still basically just a side project for her. We ponder the ramifications of a lack of promotion and the bottom of a U-curve and she’s like, “Oh yea when is that coming out again?”

 

I wish I had a side project that netted me $100M 🤣

[Giorno]

Wouldn't a 1.5m previews for the creator lead to a $15m+ weekend?

[Hilts]

23 hours ago, Hilts said:

 

Expend4bles							OK
Thursday - showings starting 6pm
Day	Theatres	Showings	Sellouts	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold
T-7	19	53	0	19	19	9,902	0.19%
T-6	19	53	0	14	33	9,902	0.33%
T-5	19	53	0	6	39	9,902	0.39%
T-4	21	56	0	10	49	10,134	0.48%
T-3	21	56	0	10	59	10,134	0.58%
Comps
The Meg 2: The Trench					0.234x	=	$0.75m
The Nun II					0.399x	=	$1.24m
The Equalizer 3					0.192x	=	$0.73m
A Haunting In Venice					0.492x	=	$0.54m
No Hard Feelings					0.434x	=	$0.93m
Gran Turismo					0.492x	=	$0.69m

 

Comp average: $810k. Uh oh.

 

Expend4bles							OK
Thursday - showings starting 6pm
Day	Theatres	Showings	Sellouts	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold
T-6	19	53	0	14	33	9,902	0.33%
T-5	19	53	0	6	39	9,902	0.39%
T-4	21	56	0	10	49	10,134	0.48%
T-3	21	56	0	10	59	10,134	0.58%
T-2	23	61	0	8	67	10,573	0.63%
Comps
The Meg 2: The Trench					0.191x	=	$0.61m
The Nun II					0.315x	=	$0.98m
The Equalizer 3					0.181x	=	$0.69m
A Haunting In Venice					0.406x	=	$0.45m
No Hard Feelings					0.356x	=	$0.77m
Gran Turismo					0.387x	=	$0.54m

 

Comp average: $670k. In freefall. For reference Ruby Gillman sold more here at T-2.

[Hilts]

23 hours ago, Hilts said:

 

The Creator							OK
Wednesday - 7pm - Early Access Screening
Day	Theatres	Showings	Sellouts	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold
T-13	3	3	0	3	11	1,224	0.90%
T-12	3	3	0	4	15	1,224	1.23%
T-11	3	3	0	0	15	1,224	1.23%
T-10	3	3	0	0	15	1,224	1.23%
T-9	3	3	0	2	17	1,224	1.39%
Thursday - showings starting 6pm
Day	Theatres	Showings	Sellouts	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold
T-14	17	43	0	7	78	8,947	0.87%
T-13	17	43	0	4	82	8,947	0.92%
T-12	17	41	0	3	85	8,675	0.98%
T-11	18	42	0	4	89	8,758	1.02%
T-10	18	42	0	3	92	8,758	1.05%
Comps
Asteroid City					1.253x	=	$1.38m
Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One					0.145x	=	$1.28m
Barbie					0.048x	=	$1.06m
Oppenheimer					0.091x	=	$0.96m
Haunted Mansion					0.599x	=	$1.86m
Strays					1.652x	=	$1.82m

 

Comp average = $1.39m.

 

Now we are later in the window I will switch up some of the comps in a couple of days to ones more relevant of where this will likely land. So far has been running similar pace for $1m-$1.5m but hopefully picks up in final week with reviews.

 

The Creator							OK
Wednesday - 7pm - Early Access Screening
Day	Theatres	Showings	Sellouts	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold
T-12	3	3	0	4	15	1,224	1.23%
T-11	3	3	0	0	15	1,224	1.23%
T-10	3	3	0	0	15	1,224	1.23%
T-9	3	3	0	2	17	1,224	1.39%
T-8	3	3	0	5	22	1,224	1.80%
Thursday - showings starting 6pm
Day	Theatres	Showings	Sellouts	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold
T-13	17	43	0	4	82	8,947	0.92%
T-12	17	41	0	3	85	8,675	0.98%
T-11	18	42	0	4	89	8,758	1.02%
T-10	18	42	0	3	92	8,758	1.05%
T-9	19	43	0	9	101	8,760	1.15%
Comps
Asteroid City					1.352x	=	$1.49m
Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One					0.154x	=	$1.36m
Haunted Mansion					0.606x	=	$1.88m
Strays					1.708x	=	$1.88m
My Big Fat Greek Wedding 3					3.000x	=	$1.65m

 

Slight review bump has reversed the downward trend, hopefully continues.

[Hilts]

23 hours ago, Hilts said:

 

The Exorcist: Believer							OK
Thursday - showings starting 5pm
Day	Theatres	Showings	Sellouts	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold
T-21	19	72	0	0	45	15,436	0.29%
T-20	19	72	0	-1	44	15,436	0.29%
T-19	19	72	0	6	50	15,436	0.32%
T-18	20	74	0	2	52	15,606	0.33%
T-17	20	74	0	8	60	15,606	0.38%
Comps
Haunted Mansion					0.606x	=	$1.88m
Barbie					0.077x	=	$1.61m
Asteroid City					0.938x	=	$1.03m

 

Comp average = $1.51m

 

The Exorcist: Believer							OK
Thursday - showings starting 5pm
Day	Theatres	Showings	Sellouts	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold
T-20	19	72	0	-1	44	15,436	0.29%
T-19	19	72	0	6	50	15,436	0.32%
T-18	20	74	0	2	52	15,606	0.33%
T-17	20	74	0	8	60	15,606	0.38%
T-16	20	74	0	2	62	15,606	0.40%
Comps
Haunted Mansion					0.574x	=	$1.78m
Barbie					0.071x	=	$1.49m
Asteroid City					0.925x	=	$1.02m
Strays					1.442x	=	$1.59m

[Hilts]

23 hours ago, Hilts said:

 

Taylor Swift | The Eras Tour							OK
Friday - showings starting 6pm
Day	Theatres	Showings	Sellouts	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold
T-29	19	154	0	61	10,881	28,259	38.50%
T-28	19	154	0	58	10,939	28,259	38.71%
T-27	19	154	0	73	11,012	28,259	38.97%
T-26	20	159	0	49	11,061	28,656	38.60%
T-25	20	159	0	30	11,091	28,656	38.70%
T-0 Comps (not ATP adjusted)
Barbie					1.122x	=	$23.67m
Oppenheimer					2.278x	=	$23.92m
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny					3.677x	=	$26.48m
T-25 Comp (not ATP adjusted)
Barbie (EA)					26.855x	=	$29.54m

 

Taylor Swift | The Eras Tour							OK
Friday - showings starting 6pm
Day	Theatres	Showings	Sellouts	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold
T-28	19	154	0	58	10,939	28,259	38.71%
T-27	19	154	0	73	11,012	28,259	38.97%
T-26	20	159	0	49	11,061	28,656	38.60%
T-25	20	159	0	30	11,091	28,656	38.70%
T-24	20	161	0	25	11,116	28,840	38.54%
T-0 Comps (not ATP adjusted)
Barbie					1.124x	=	$23.72m
Oppenheimer					2.283x	=	$23.97m
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny					3.686x	=	$26.54m
T-24 Comp (not ATP adjusted)
Barbie (EA)					25.791x	=	$28.37m

 

Maybe not quite at the bottom of the curve yet.

[Hilts]

13 hours ago, datpepper said:

Not to be outdone, Journey to Bethlehem is on sale Sep 20

 

Wait wait wait hold up, 50 day presale window for this?!?

 

[CJohn]

I am currently working on new ways to write BOMB BOMB BOMB for The Expend4bles and The Creator. I am gonna need a whole lot of them.