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Shawn Robbins

The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

By Shawn Robbins, in Box Office Discussion

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Posted by katnisscinnaplex,

Presales Tracking Information   I guess this is as good of a time as any to share this sheet I've been putting together for the past few weeks.  It's a table of movies from the past few years with relevant pre-sales information (release date, sales date, sales window, previews gross, etc.)  @datpepper and I will try to keep it updated when ticket sales dates are announced for upcoming films to make those easier to find.     There are a few gaps in the sheet where I couldn't f

Pre Sale Data Google Doc

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Posted by XXRDJisDoctorDoom,

I’m sure I’ve done enough “reminding” at this point that this is the tracking thread and not a discussion thread. Take your predictions and commentary elsewhere. No more warnings on this subject.
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DAJK Global Phenomenon

DAJK

Posted
Posted

Just looking at sales around me, this weekend is shaping up to be pretty strong overall. Even if nothing is going to be a monster breakout, Creator looks like it could do 18-22. Saw is selling pretty great for Friday, thinking 25-30 is definitely possible. Even Paw Patrol is selling well, and I think this could be much stronger than the previous film (thinking 15-20). Dumb Money is expanding, but I'm sticking with around 5M for that one. Still, kind of a "something for everyone weekend". 

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titanic2187 Summer Tentpole

titanic2187

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, DAJK said:

Just looking at sales around me, this weekend is shaping up to be pretty strong overall. Even if nothing is going to be a monster breakout, Creator looks like it could do 18-22. Saw is selling pretty great for Friday, thinking 25-30 is definitely possible. Even Paw Patrol is selling well, and I think this could be much stronger than the previous film (thinking 15-20). Dumb Money is expanding, but I'm sticking with around 5M for that one. Still, kind of a "something for everyone weekend". 

Too bad, the artificial double bill meme, orchestrated by Paramount, Saw patrol didn't kick off at all. I personally think Creator and Saw is a better combo to sell. 

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el sid Box Office Gold

el sid

Posted
Posted (edited)

Saw X, counted today for Friday:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 166 (10 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 33 (6 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 5 (4 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 6 (5 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 22 (5 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 45 (6 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 213 (9 showtimes)

 

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 490.

Comps (all films counted on Wednesday of the release week for Friday): The Nun II (9.9M true Friday) had 833 sold tickets = 59% = 5.85M for Saw X,
Insidious: The Red Door (10.3M true Friday) had 598 sold tickets = 82% = 8.45M (which sounds more realistic),
M3gan had 506 sold tickets,
Prey for the Devil had 207,
The Pope's Exorcist had 142,
Smile had 399,
Halloween Kills had 1.254
and Scream VI had 1.693 sold tickets.

I'm surprised that The Nun II is now clearly in front. It had e.g. a bit better sales in the AMC in NY and way better sales in San Francisco.
I think the walk-ups will be very good but at the moment I would rather „predict“ mid 20ies for Saw X.
 

Tomorrow I count all three new releases.
KotFM report in a few minutes.

Edited by el sid
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Eric Prime Global Phenomenon

Eric Prime

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7 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

Too bad, the artificial double bill meme, orchestrated by Paramount, Saw patrol didn't kick off at all. I personally think Creator and Saw is a better combo to sell. 

It was never going to work lol. Even ironically, how do you convince a 28 year old to see a Paw Patrol movie?

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el sid Box Office Gold

el sid

Posted
Posted

KotFM, counted yesterday for Thursday, October 19. 23 days left:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 62 (3 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 43 (4 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): so far no showtimes
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 1 (3 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 10 (2 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 237 (4 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 411 (8 showtimes)

 

Total tickets sold in 6 theaters: 764.

Comps (all films counted after ca. 24 hours on sale): The Black Phone had 95 sold tickets,
Beast had 53,
M3gan had 57,
The Exorcist II had 171
and Dune had 1.038 sold tickets (but Dune had only 16 days left).
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood had on Monday of the release week (20 days left for KotFM to overtake) 1.121 sold tickets for Thursday = already 68% for KotFM.

Nice!

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Porthos Global Phenomenon

Porthos

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13 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

Too bad, the artificial double bill meme, orchestrated by Paramount, Saw patrol didn't kick off at all. I personally think Creator and Saw is a better combo to sell. 

 

3 minutes ago, Eric the Creator said:

It was never going to work lol. Even ironically, how do you convince a 28 year old to see a Paw Patrol movie?

 

2 minutes ago, AMC Theaters Enjoyer said:


You would be very surprised how many “Paw Patrol is Cinéma” people there are out there.

 

I think it's more that the Saw franchise is so repellant* on a basic level to many (being glorified torture porn) that finding any crossover potential out there was... a hard sell.

* This is not  a slam on the franchise.  Just noticing that it is... Well, niche. :)

 

Yes, I get that the inherent irony was what Paramount was trying (or probably more faintly hoping) to kickstart.  But even in these massively irony poisoned times, a self-aware joke only goes so far.  Especially one as transparent as that one.

 

If we're talking artificial doubleheaders, a Creator/Paw Patrol one probably would have had more chance at success — if not great chances even there.

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el sid Box Office Gold

el sid

Posted
Posted (edited)

KotFM, counted yesterday for Friday, October 20. 24 days left:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 36 (4 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 23 (5 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): so far no showtimes
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 0 (3 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 1 (2 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 132 (5 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 276 (10 showtimes)

 

Total tickets sold in 6 theaters: 468.

Comps (all three films counted after ca. 24 hours on sale): The Black Phone had 34 sold tickets,
Beast had 27
and Dune had 1.419 sold tickets (but Dune had only 17 days left and I can just repeat that the Dune comp makes every film look bad).
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood had on Monday of the release week 837 sold tickets for Friday (= 20 days left to overtake and it's not as easy as on Thursday but I think it will happen) = already 56% for KotFM.
I have an Oppenheimer comp in a few days.

A very good start. I think I underestimated this film massively ;).

 

Edit: Sorry, I copied it and however it could happen, I had the wrong numbers in the different AMCs. I corrected it now. The total number was right.

Edited by el sid
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DAJK Global Phenomenon

DAJK

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16 minutes ago, Eric the Creator said:

It was never going to work lol. Even ironically, how do you convince a 28 year old to see a Paw Patrol movie?

Or a 5 year old to see a Saw movie?

 

Although, I worked at a movie theater for 6+ years and you would be shocked at the kind of stuff parents bring their kids to...

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ZeroHour Sleeper Hit

ZeroHour

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Trying to recreate Barbenheimer again with two movies on the same release date is going to be near impossible and the more people throw together random movie names to try and make it happen the harder it will be because it will stink of old people trying to make a meme catch on with the youths.

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vafrow Box Office Gold

vafrow

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, DAJK said:

Just looking at sales around me, this weekend is shaping up to be pretty strong overall. Even if nothing is going to be a monster breakout, Creator looks like it could do 18-22. Saw is selling pretty great for Friday, thinking 25-30 is definitely possible. Even Paw Patrol is selling well, and I think this could be much stronger than the previous film (thinking 15-20). Dumb Money is expanding, but I'm sticking with around 5M for that one. Still, kind of a "something for everyone weekend". 

 

I've been going to the movies consistently twice a month all year, and I haven't been since I took my kids to see TMNT back in August.

 

It's really been a tough stretch. But both Dumb Money and Creator intrigue me enough that I feel motivated finally to try and get out.

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DAJK Global Phenomenon

DAJK

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Posted
5 minutes ago, TomThomas said:

Probably better since some X crazies claimed it's as good as Aliens or Terminator 2.

I know not related to tracking but Interstellar had a similar level of reviews and I still maintain that that is one of the best sci-fi movies of the century. 

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Inceptionzq Box Office Gold

Inceptionzq

Posted
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On 9/26/2023 at 3:03 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Taylor Swift Eras Tour Denver Friday

AMC Westminster 24

Total 2113 2657 79.53%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total 2034 2741 74.21%

 

SEATS SOLD SOLD PAST DAY TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS SHOWINGS
10461 82 22056 47.43% 13 146

 

1.528 Doctor Strange MoM T-17 55.03M
1.014 Barbie T-0 22.62M
0.681 Doctor Strange MoM T-0 24.51M
0.452 NWH T-0 22.59M

 

Noticeable bump after the Taylor tweet, but nothing crazy

Taylor Swift Eras Tour Denver Friday

AMC Westminster 24

Total 2112 2657 79.49%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total 2036 2741 74.28%

 

SEATS SOLD SOLD PAST DAY TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS SHOWINGS
10480 19 22056 47.52% 13 146

 

1.499 Doctor Strange MoM T-16 53.98M
1.016 Barbie T-0 22.66M
0.682 Doctor Strange MoM T-0 24.56M
0.453 NWH T-0 22.63M
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keysersoze123 Global Phenomenon

keysersoze123

Posted
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15 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

The Creator MTC1

Wednesday - 7161/26820 149563.51 102 shows

Previews - 20168/230944 386033.10 1227 shows

 

MTC1 Previews Saw X - 13821/197690 216834.75 1228 shows

MTC1 Paw Patrol the Mighty Movie - 28284/448782 355961.94 3016 shows

 

Paw Patrol friday sales look good to me. it could still win the weekend while Creator should win Previews with early shows for sure. 

Creator MTC1 Friday - 21353/579599 387514.53 3073 shows

Saw X MTC1 Friday - 17944/446116 273168.30 2709 shows

Paw Patrol Saturday - 31046/504346 336962.06 3394 shows

 

Looks bad for Saw X. I thought it would open to 30m OW. Creator will probably beat it this weekend but I am expecting Paw Patrol to win. 

 

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Inceptionzq Box Office Gold

Inceptionzq

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On 9/26/2023 at 3:05 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Taylor Swift Eras Tour Alamo Drafthouse

T-17 Friday 100 Showings 10105 +196 15745 ATP: 22.40
0.658 Doctor Strange MoM Thurs T-17 23.69M
  Adjusted Doctor Strange MoM Thurs T-17 35.28M
0.312 Doctor Strange MoM Thurs T-0 11.23M
0.260 NWH Thurs T-0 13.02M
  Adjusted Doctor Strange MoM Thurs T-0 16.73M
  Adjusted NWH Thurs T-0 19.39M

 

T-18 Saturday 183 Showings 13444 +224 27311 ATP: 22.12
1.042 Doctor Strange MoM Fri T-18 57.04M
  Adjusted Doctor Strange MoM Fri T-18 86.14M
0.361 Doctor Strange MoM Fri T-0 19.78M
0.315 NWH Fri T-0 22.67M
  Adjusted Doctor Strange MoM Fri T-0 29.87M
  Adjusted NWH Fri T-0 34.24M

 

T-19 Sunday 161 Showings 10580 +198 23960 ATP: 21.96
0.796 Doctor Strange MoM Sat T-19 46.02M
  Adjusted Doctor Strange MoM Sat T-19 71.22M
0.240 Doctor Strange MoM Sat T-0 13.90M
0.210 NWH Sat T-0 15.55M
  Adjusted Doctor Strange MoM Sat T-0 21.52M
  Adjusted NWH Sat T-0 24.07M

Taylor Swift Eras Tour Alamo Drafthouse

T-16 Friday 100 Showings 10212 +107 15745 ATP: 22.38
0.654 Doctor Strange MoM Thurs T-16 23.55M
  Adjusted Doctor Strange MoM Thurs T-16 35.03M
0.315 Doctor Strange MoM Thurs T-0 11.35M
0.263 NWH Thurs T-0 13.16M
  Adjusted Doctor Strange MoM Thurs T-0 16.89M
  Adjusted NWH Thurs T-0 19.57M

 

T-17 Saturday 183 Showings 13566 +122 27311 ATP: 22.12
1.025 Doctor Strange MoM Fri T-17 56.08M
  Adjusted Doctor Strange MoM Fri T-17 84.66M
0.365 Doctor Strange MoM Fri T-0 19.96M
0.318 NWH Fri T-0 22.88M
  Adjusted Doctor Strange MoM Fri T-0 30.13M
  Adjusted NWH Fri T-0 34.54M

 

T-18 Sunday 161 Showings 10725 +145 23960 ATP: 21.96
0.783 Doctor Strange MoM Sat T-18 45.24M
  Adjusted Doctor Strange MoM Sat T-18 70.03M
0.244 Doctor Strange MoM Sat T-0 14.09M
0.213 NWH Sat T-0 15.76M
  Adjusted Doctor Strange MoM Sat T-0 21.81M
  Adjusted NWH Sat T-0 24.40M
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Inceptionzq Box Office Gold

Inceptionzq

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Posted
On 9/26/2023 at 3:06 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Taylor Swift Eras Tour Emagine Entertainment

T-17 Friday 124 Showings 9224 +278 19362
0.643 Barbie T-0 Thursday 14.33M

 

T-18 Saturday 234 Showings 6123 +160 36879
0.238 Barbie T-0 Friday 11.38M

 

T-19 Sunday 234 Showings 3601 +103 36426
0.152 Barbie T-0 Saturday 6.64M

Taylor Swift Eras Tour Emagine Entertainment

T-16 Friday 127 Showings 9348 +124 19715
0.651 Barbie T-0 Thursday 14.52M

 

T-17 Saturday 234 Showings 6269 +146 36885
0.244 Barbie T-0 Friday 11.65M

 

T-18 Sunday 234 Showings 3709 +108 36432
0.156 Barbie T-0 Saturday 6.84M
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