The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[vale9001]

13 minutes ago, Sparkle Jump Rope Queen said:

could thursday numbers be higher than friday's for renaissance film? ive seen many fans snatch tickets for nov 30 instead of dec 1 or is it not possible since there's only a few showings on thursday 

At the moment easily. As It should have been with the eras tour with the same circumstances. 

Edited October 2, 2023 by vale9001

[JustLurking]

22 minutes ago, Grand Cine said:

Hello , I'm new , i know a lot on box office and I would like to know if the beginning of presales of Five Night at Freddy is comparable to Halloween Ends or Scream VI even with the low shows and finally the comparison with The Exorcist, now at T-3, please

 

PS : The beginning for Beyonce Concert is really good , it could hurts the legs of Wish, Napoleon , Hunger Games or The Trolls 3

It's well ahead of Scream VI's start. I don't recall the numbers for halloween ends but it's probably a fair assumption it's well ahead of that too given the few comps posted here. Should wait and see how things progress in terms of frontloading, though.

[Relevation]

54 minutes ago, Grand Cine said:

Hello , I'm new , i know a lot on box office and I would like to know if the beginning of presales of Five Night at Freddy is comparable to Halloween Ends or Scream VI even with the low shows and finally the comparison with The Exorcist, now at T-3, please

 

PS : The beginning for Beyonce Concert is really good , it could hurts the legs of Wish, Napoleon , Hunger Games or The Trolls 3

It’s currently outpacing Halloween Ends and Scream VI’s first days combined and comps across the board are pointing to previews in the $8-11M range 

[DisposedData]

I personally think people here are overstating how frontloaded presales for FNAF will be.

[Porthos]

On 8/31/2023 at 1:12 PM, Porthos said:

 

BTW, Sacto?

 

Just did a check.

 

Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour (12:45pm - 1pm)

3919/12214 [32.08% sold] 

 

 

So I just did a check of Beyoncé's concert film locally and there is a sliiiiiight difference 

 

Renaissance: A Film by Beyoncé (12:15pm - 12:20pm)

267/9498 [2.81% sold]

 

Now, a couple of badly needed contextual comments.  I have no idea  when tickets became available for Thursday Night for the local Cinemarks, as there were NOT available late last night.  I also started this pull about 30 minutes earlier than I did the one for TET.

 

And, finally, we have exactly zero AMCs locally, if that matters in the slightest.

 

On the other hand, I did an initial check a couple of hours ago and the growth in sales over that period is pretty damn low (maybe about 40 tickets or so).

 

Sooooo...   Well, we'll see, I suppose.  But might want to temper expectations a tad.

[jeffthehat]

Just now, Porthos said:

 

So I just did a check of Beyoncé's concert film locally and there is a sliiiiiight difference 

 

Renaissance: A Film by Beyoncé (12:15pm - 12:20pm)

267/9498 [2.81% sold]

 

Now, a couple of badly needed contextual comments.  I have no idea  when tickets became available for Thursday Night for the local Cinemarks, as there were NOT available late last night.  I also started this pull about 30 minutes earlier than I did the one for TET.

 

And, finally, we have exactly zero AMCs locally, if that matters in the slightest.

 

On the other hand, I did an initial check a couple of hours ago and the growth in sales over that period is pretty damn low (maybe about 40 tickets or so).

 

Sooooo...   Well, we'll see, I suppose.  But might want to temper expectations a tad.

 

My theory is that Sacto's lack of AMCs will cause it to underindex for both this and Eras. Orlando might have the same problem (but I think FlatLan said he tracks a big one). 

[vale9001]

20 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

So I just did a check of Beyoncé's concert film locally and there is a sliiiiiight difference 

 

Renaissance: A Film by Beyoncé (12:15pm - 12:20pm)

267/9498 [2.81% sold]

 

Now, a couple of badly needed contextual comments.  I have no idea  when tickets became available for Thursday Night for the local Cinemarks, as there were NOT available late last night.  I also started this pull about 30 minutes earlier than I did the one for TET.

 

And, finally, we have exactly zero AMCs locally, if that matters in the slightest.

 

On the other hand, I did an initial check a couple of hours ago and the growth in sales over that period is pretty damn low (maybe about 40 tickets or so).

 

Sooooo...   Well, we'll see, I suppose.  But might want to temper expectations a tad.

 

Sales were launched at 2 AM (New York Time). As for the Eras tour only on amc for just not more than 2 hours, then they were on cinemark and regal too. 

[Porthos]

9 minutes ago, DisposedData said:

I personally think people here are overstating how frontloaded presales for FNAF will be.

 

Was gonna comment on this with @M37's post earlier, so might as well pull it now as well...

 

2 hours ago, M37 said:

Just want to plant my flag on something real quick ...

 

Admittedly not in my wheelhouse, but as Five Nights at Freddy's is based on a popular video game, even though the film's subject falls into the horror/thriller genre, those films may not be the greatest comps for the presale pattern. There's a fairly long history of these video game films having a much lower walk-up to presale ratio (probably in part because gamers are more accustomed to the nature of content pre-orders)

 

Going to wait and see how quickly - or not - this initial burst dies down before using the "b" word

 

 

I do agree with M37 that horror comps are pretty damn unsuitable right now.  And probably will be throughout the pre-sale run.

 

I'm not as sold on the gamer pattern though.  Or not completely at least.  I don't have many video game films in my sets but the one most recent-ish one I do have is Sonic 2, which FNAF is absolutely smoking (639 D1 tickets vs 182 D1 tickets).

 

I didn't track Super Mario Bros. since that was an all-day release, but even that wasn't as frontloaded of a flick as some of the Big Boys and Gals just from anecdotal/casual glances.  Maybe not as backloaded as some more traditional GA-friendly flicks (it would have been very hard for it to be at with its initial level of sales), sure.  But then the all day release throws a wrench into trying to comp things too heavily.

 

But more to the point, at a certain level it doesn't matter how frontloaded something is, if there is enough of an initial push.  One of the reasons I brought in The Flash was because it didn't have a particularly strong finish in sales.  Another example (regrettably) would be Indy 5.  FNAF sold over 200 tickets more than Indy 5 did on its Day 1.  Of course, Indy 5 also had a much longer pre-sale window (to its detriment), but even at T-25 FNAF is at 81% of Indy 5's sales.  And that's with Indy 5 having 13 more days of pre-sales!  I tend to think it'll catch up to Indy 5 relatively quickly.

 

My worry is more on screen space/capacity, which is one of M37's traditional concerns.  Right now, emphasis on right now, it's only on one screen at nearly every theater in town (only one theater had it on two screens as of last night).  Desirable seats/times are gonna get grabbed very very quickly which means unless screen capacity rises, sales will fall off a cliff.

 

Now screen capacity will certainly go up. But how much and when are open questions.  As is the level of fan rush.  On the other hand, this being a Halloween themed movie, later night showings will be more appealing than they would be for most other films.  So something of a push-pull dynamic here.

 

In the end, the most we can really say is that FNAF had a very strong start, even without bringing in relative expectations into play.  How it continues to do since it's fairly uncharted waters?  Well, unpredictability is part of the fun of this little hobby!  

[Porthos]

5 minutes ago, vale9001 said:

 

Sales were launched at 2 AM (New York Time). As for the Eras tour only on amc for just not more than 2 hours, then they were on cinemark and regal too. 

 

You misunderstand me.  Showtimes were not up for Thursday Night Previews *LOCALLY* at first for the local Cinemarks in my market.  They were up for F/St/Su more or less when you said.  And I know this coz I kept checking until around 1:30am local time.

 

So how much of the super super super early rush Sacto missed, I don't know.  But the growth from 10:30am-ish to 12:15pm-ish wasn't all that much, which is somewhat telling.

 

(in the middle of checking out Friday sales region wide and I'll get back to the thread on that in about 15 min or so)

 

 

[XXR & Friends]

The overall disparity won’t be as bad as the Sacto disparity but I can see MTC1 having a heavy over-index. It’s full Friday might approach 30% of TET Friday but all other theaters may only be 15-20%.

[Porthos]

31 minutes ago, jeffthehat said:

 

My theory is that Sacto's lack of AMCs will cause it to underindex for both this and Eras. Orlando might have the same problem (but I think FlatLan said he tracks a big one). 

 

I prefer to think of it as AMC over-indexing. 😉 

 

(AMC may be the biggest chain out there, but they still can absolutely over-index on various films)

[vafrow]

16 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

Was gonna comment on this with @M37's post earlier, so might as well pull it now as well...

 

 

 

I do agree with M37 that horror comps are pretty damn unsuitable right now.  And probably will be throughout the pre-sale run.

 

I'm not as sold on the gamer pattern though.  Or not completely at least.  I don't have many video game films in my sets but the one most recent-ish one I do have is Sonic 2, which FNAF is absolutely smoking (639 D1 tickets vs 182 D1 tickets).

 

I didn't track Super Mario Bros. since that was an all-day release, but even that wasn't as frontloaded of a flick as some of the Big Boys and Gals just from anecdotal/casual glances.  Maybe not as backloaded as some more traditional GA-friendly flicks (it would have been very hard for it to be at with its initial level of sales), sure.  But then the all day release throws a wrench into trying to comp things too heavily.

 

But more to the point, at a certain level it doesn't matter how frontloaded something is, if there is enough of an initial push.  One of the reasons I brought in The Flash was because it didn't have a particularly strong finish in sales.  Another example (regrettably) would be Indy 5.  FNAF sold over 200 tickets more than Indy 5 did on its Day 1.  Of course, Indy 5 also had a much longer pre-sale window (to its detriment), but even at T-25 FNAF is at 81% of Indy 5's sales.  And that's with Indy 5 having 13 more days of pre-sales!  I tend to think it'll catch up to Indy 5 relatively quickly.

 

My worry is more on screen space/capacity, which is one of M37's traditional concerns.  Right now, emphasis on right now, it's only on one screen at nearly every theater in town (only one theater had it on two screens as of last night).  Desirable seats/times are gonna get grabbed very very quickly which means unless screen capacity rises, sales will fall off a cliff.

 

Now screen capacity will certainly go up. But how much and when are open questions.  As is the level of fan rush.  On the other hand, this being a Halloween themed movie, later night showings will be more appealing than they would be for most other films.  So something of a push-pull dynamic here.

 

In the end, the most we can really say is that FNAF had a very strong start, even without bringing in relative expectations into play.  How it continues to do since it's fairly uncharted waters?  Well, unpredictability is part of the fun of this little hobby!  

 

Mario and Sonic feel too far down the family film side of the spectrum to be reliable though.

 

Uncharted might be the best gauge. But that's also a weird one. The hardcore fans weren't embracing that film given the younger casting, and it essentially became a Tom Holland vehicle following up on No Way Home.

 

Speaking of Spiderman, I wonder if Across the Spiderverse becomes a decent comp.

 

Judging from the reactions I've seen from my kids, it's resonating at similar levels for that age demo.

 

I imagine that ATSV is probably tracking a bit higher, and FNAF can't bank on the same late surge off of critical response. 

[Hilts]

On 10/1/2023 at 9:01 PM, Hilts said:

 

The Exorcist: Believer							OK
Thursday - showings starting 5pm
Day	Theatres	Showings	Sellouts	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold
T-8	22	80	0	7	124	16,341	0.76%
T-7	22	80	0	5	129	16,341	0.79%
T-6	22	80	0	10	139	16,341	0.85%
T-5	22	80	0	22	161	16,341	0.99%
T-4	22	80	0	30	191	16,341	1.17%
Comps
Haunted Mansion					0.513x	=	$1.59m
Strays					1.528x	=	$1.68m
A Haunting In Venice					1.553x	=	$1.86m
Talk To Me					3.673x	=	$4.57m
The Last Voyage of the Demeter					4.659x	=	$3.49m
Insidious: The Red Door					1.117x	=	$5.58m
The Nun II					1.802x	=	$5.59m
The Creator					1.032x	=	$1.65m
Saw X					1.492x	=	$2.98m

 

Best day so far - improving on all comps as I hoped, bar Insidious and Saw.

 

The Exorcist: Believer							OK
Thursday - showings starting 5pm
Day	Theatres	Showings	Sellouts	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold
T-7	22	80	0	5	129	16,341	0.79%
T-6	22	80	0	10	139	16,341	0.85%
T-5	22	80	0	22	161	16,341	0.99%
T-4	22	80	0	30	191	16,341	1.17%
T-3	22	80	0	39	230	16,341	1.41%
Comps
Haunted Mansion					0.513x	=	$1.59m
Strays					1.377x	=	$1.51m
A Haunting In Venice					1.655x	=	$1.99m
Talk To Me					4.339x	=	$5.40m
The Last Voyage of the Demeter					4.182x	=	$3.14m
Insidious: The Red Door					1.243x	=	$6.22m
The Nun II					1.554x	=	$4.82m
The Creator					0.939x	=	$1.50m
Saw X					1.361x	=	$2.72m

 

Comp average: $3.21m. Overall pretty steady with yesterday.

[Porthos]

47 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

So I just did a check of Beyoncé's concert film locally and there is a sliiiiiight difference 

 

Renaissance: A Film by Beyoncé (12:15pm - 12:20pm)

267/9498 [2.81% sold]

 

Now, a couple of badly needed contextual comments.  I have no idea  when tickets became available for Thursday Night for the local Cinemarks, as there were NOT available late last night.  I also started this pull about 30 minutes earlier than I did the one for TET.

 

And, finally, we have exactly zero AMCs locally, if that matters in the slightest.

 

On the other hand, I did an initial check a couple of hours ago and the growth in sales over that period is pretty damn low (maybe about 40 tickets or so).

 

Sooooo...   Well, we'll see, I suppose.  But might want to temper expectations a tad.

 

14 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

You misunderstand me.  Showtimes were not up for Thursday Night Previews *LOCALLY* at first for the local Cinemarks in my market.  They were up for F/St/Su more or less when you said.  And I know this coz I kept checking until around 1:30am local time.

 

So how much of the super super super early rush Sacto missed, I don't know.  But the growth from 10:30am-ish to 12:15pm-ish wasn't all that much, which is somewhat telling.

 

(in the middle of checking out Friday sales region wide and I'll get back to the thread on that in about 15 min or so)

 

 

 

As threatened:

 

Thur:  267/9498 [2.81% sold]

Fri:     389/21,111 [1.84% sold]

 

As I glance at things, there is a Th/F discrepancy at some of the Cinemarks in town:

 

Century Arden [Thr: 49 | Fri: 101]

Blue Oaks         [Thr:   4 |  Fri: 24]

Century Doco   [Thr:  38 | Fri 94]

Century Laguna [Thr: 21 | Fri 62]

 

versus a couple of the Regals:

Regal Delta Shores [Thr: 76 | Fri 37]

Regal El Dorado      [Thr: 25 | Fri 13]

 

which does suggest that some level of Thursday sales were missed when it took the local Cinemarks a bit to get with the program.

 

But how much of that was smoothed out by folks just going to a nearby Regal and/or getting Fri tickets instead, I don't know.  And even then the Friday level of sales isn't exactly that high even with a thumb on the scale.

 

So, as I said, "we'll see".

 

(60 days of pre-sales also should be brought in as a consideration as well)

[Hilts]

On 10/1/2023 at 9:13 PM, Hilts said:

 

 

 

Taylor Swift | The Eras Tour							OK
Friday - showings starting 6pm
Day	Theatres	Showings	Sellouts	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold
T-16	20	163	0	68	11,532	28,984	39.79%
T-15	20	163	0	47	11,579	28,984	39.95%
T-14	20	163	0	76	11,655	28,984	40.21%
T-13	20	163	0	65	11,720	28,984	40.44%
T-12	20	163	0	73	11,793	28,984	40.69%

 

MTC1: 6,860/11,422 - 60.1% sold - 2.6% growth

MTC2: 1,877/6,420 - 29.2% sold - 5.6% growth

MTC3: 2,116/6,396 - 33.1% sold - 5.2% growth

Other: 940/7,449 - 12.6% sold - 8.4% growth

 

T-0 Comps						Raw	ATP adj*
Barbie				1.193x	=	$25.17m	$37.75m
Oppenheimer				2.422x	=	$25.43m	$38.15m
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny				3.910x	=	$28.15m	$42.23m
T-12 Comp						Raw	ATP adj*
Barbie (EA)				19.758x	=	$21.73m	$32.60m

 

*+50%

 

Saturday (+7 days of sales)

332 showings (+4)

6,921 total sold (+302)

58.7% of Friday (previously 58.4%)

 

Friday and Saturday very similar pace but has definitely kicked up a notch since last week.

 

Taylor Swift | The Eras Tour							OK
Friday - showings starting 6pm
Day	Theatres	Showings	Sellouts	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold
T-15	20	163	0	47	11,579	28,984	39.95%
T-14	20	163	0	76	11,655	28,984	40.21%
T-13	20	163	0	65	11,720	28,984	40.44%
T-12	20	163	0	73	11,793	28,984	40.69%
T-11	20	164	0	118	11,911	29,080	40.96%
T-0 Comps						Raw	ATP adj*
Barbie				1.205x	=	$25.42m	$38.13m
Oppenheimer				2.446x	=	$25.69m	$38.53m
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny				3.949x	=	$28.43m	$42.65m
T-11 Comp						Raw	ATP adj*
Barbie (EA)				19.494x	=	$21.44m	$32.17m

 

*+50%

 

Definite bump - best day since initial week of sales.

[misterpepp]

The Nightmare Before Christmas 30th Anniversary re-release on Oct 20 will have 3D showtimes. Still waiting on a sale date.

[Hilts]

On 10/1/2023 at 9:14 PM, Hilts said:

 

Killers of the Flower Moon							OK
Thursday - showings starting 2.30pm
Day	Theatres	Showings	Sellouts	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold
T-22	20	80	0	150	643	15,114	4.25%
T-21	20	80	0	83	726	15,114	4.80%
T-20	21	82	0	116	842	15,266	5.52%
T-19	21	82	0	113	955	15,266	6.26%
T-18	21	82	0	93	1,048	15,266	6.86%
Comps
Oppenheimer					1.381x	=	$14.50m
Barbie					0.810x	=	$17.98m
Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One					2.197x	=	$19.33m
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny					1.345x	=	$9.69m
Sound of Freedom					1.405x	=	$7.31m
Asteroid City					17.180x	=	$18.90m

 

Killers of the Flower Moon							OK
Thursday - showings starting 2.30pm
Day	Theatres	Showings	Sellouts	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold
T-21	20	80	0	83	726	15,114	4.80%
T-20	21	82	0	116	842	15,266	5.52%
T-19	21	82	0	113	955	15,266	6.26%
T-18	21	82	0	93	1,048	15,266	6.86%
T-17	21	82	0	70	1,118	15,266	7.32%
Comps
Oppenheimer					1.437x	=	$15.09m
Barbie					0.834x	=	$18.52m
Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One					2.184x	=	$19.22m
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny					1.387x	=	$9.99m
Sound of Freedom					1.368x	=	$7.12m
Asteroid City					17.469x	=	$19.22m

[DAJK]

FNAF feels like it’s shaping up to be the next Detective Pikachu. People are gonna start predicting 100-200M+ OW for it, sticking their heads in the sand and yell at everyone who’s not on board. And then freak out that the movie is a huge bomb when it “only” opens to 40M or so.

[Hilts]

On 10/1/2023 at 9:20 PM, Hilts said:

Five Nights at Freddy's							OK
Thursday - showings starting 2pm
Day	Theatres	Showings	Sellouts	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold
T-25	15	61	0	195	195	10,575	1.84%

 

Comps
Asteroid City					7.800x	=	$8.58m
Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One					1.204x	=	$10.59m
Barbie					0.465x	=	$9.82m
Haunted Mansion					2.708x	=	$8.40m
The Exorcist: Believer					5.571x

 

 

Thought I needed to do a re-count and then I saw @Porthos mentioned John Wick 4... it appears I second that ballpark.

 

Five Nights at Freddy's							OK
Thursday - showings starting 2pm
Day	Theatres	Showings	Sellouts	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold
T-25	15	61	0	195	195	10,575	1.84%
T-24	16	64	0	156	351	10,818	3.24%

 

Comps
Asteroid City					12.103x	=	$13.31m
Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One					1.648x	=	$14.50m
Barbie					0.805x	=	$16.99m
Haunted Mansion					4.558x	=	$14.13m
Oppenheimer					0.562x	=	$5.90m
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny					0.592x	=	$4.26m
The Exorcist: Believer					9.750x
Killers of the Flower Moon					1.190x

 

Well the fan-rush not over yet. Added Oppy and Indy which started earlier for some perspective. Even keeping pace with KOTFM which is major over-indexing here. Will be interesting to see what the bottom of the curve looks like and when.

[DisposedData]

9 minutes ago, DAJK said:

FNAF feels like it’s shaping up to be the next Detective Pikachu. People are gonna start predicting 100-200M+ OW for it, sticking their heads in the sand and yell at everyone who’s not on board. And then freak out that the movie is a huge bomb when it “only” opens to 40M or so.

Difference is DP never actually had strong pre sales lmao. I don't think anyone is expecting a 100m+ opening. Rather just compete to potentially be the biggest horror of the year. 

Edited October 2, 2023 by DisposedData